After the Spanish American War

Suppose the USA does not occupy the Phillipines after the war? Either Japan or Germany then invade the Phillipines. Is what ensues either better or worse than the Phillipine Insurrection and its consequences of OTL?

Or is this so improbable it should be in ASB? Especially the part about the USA not occupying the Phillipines?;)
 
Suppose the USA does not occupy the Phillipines after the war? Either Japan or Germany then invade the Phillipines. Is what ensues either better or worse than the Phillipine Insurrection and its consequences of OTL?

Or is this so improbable it should be in ASB? Especially the part about the USA not occupying the Phillipines?;)

This has been discussed many times in this site already.

Invading the Philippines is a high cost low reward in 1890s for any great power. Philippines would be indepedent.

USA got away with it in otl by landing troops in Manila while they were allied with the philippines. Even if this happened, usa still got more casualties fighting philippines than vs spain in spanish American war.

Japan will not invade due to relationship. While Germany may or may not, depending on the kaiser. But like I said, the cost is greater than the reward.
 
The Filipino resistance was extremely widespread and difficult to put down, even for the US Army which by that time in history had a fair amount of experience in fighting insurgencies.

Admittedly, I'm not quite as familiar with the Philippines at this time as I am with Cuba and its situation, but I can't see other powers in the region having a lot of luck: Germany has a very tenuous set of supply routes in the region, and Japan doesn't have the same reasons to want the Philippines in 1898 as it did during the Pacific Campaign of WWII.
 
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