In 1873 there was a drought in Anatolia, which, combined with flooding in 1874, caused a famine in the Ottoman Empire. This of course meant reduced tax revenues. In view of this, the Ottomans seem to (my source for this is wikipedia) have defaulted on some of their debt and also raised taxes in the Balkans to try and cover the rest. So what if the Ottomans instead default on more of their debt, keeping taxes the same and possibly even giving a tax holiday in 1874/75. What might happen?
It might mean there are no revolts in Bosnia-Herzigovina, Serbia, Montenegro and Bulgaria, which in turn would mean no revolts in Crete and Epirus.
It could well mean that the Ottoman Empire's creditors declare war on her in order to force her to pay. However, since the creditors were mostly Britain and France, and neither wanted to see Austria or Russia expand into the Balkans, might they instead seek a compromise agreement?
It is hard to see it going worse than it did OTL - between 1875 and 1882 the Ottomans lost Egypt, the Sudan, Tunisia, Crete, Bosnia-Herzigovina, Novi Pazar, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Epirus,Thessaly, Northern Dobruja, Niš and Leskovac and a goodly portion of their Caucasian territories (such as Ardahan, Artvin, Batum, Kars, Olti, Beyazit, and Alashkert). It would also lose the by then completely theoretical suzerainty over Serbia, Montenegro and Romania. Also, the Ottoman Empire would completely lose control of her own finances in this period to a committee run by foreign powers.
And might a better 1874-1882 period mean that Abdul Hamid II resumes Turkish evolution towards constitutional democracy once the economy has stabilized? And might it make him a less paranoid ruler in general?
What do people think?
fasquardon
It might mean there are no revolts in Bosnia-Herzigovina, Serbia, Montenegro and Bulgaria, which in turn would mean no revolts in Crete and Epirus.
It could well mean that the Ottoman Empire's creditors declare war on her in order to force her to pay. However, since the creditors were mostly Britain and France, and neither wanted to see Austria or Russia expand into the Balkans, might they instead seek a compromise agreement?
It is hard to see it going worse than it did OTL - between 1875 and 1882 the Ottomans lost Egypt, the Sudan, Tunisia, Crete, Bosnia-Herzigovina, Novi Pazar, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Epirus,Thessaly, Northern Dobruja, Niš and Leskovac and a goodly portion of their Caucasian territories (such as Ardahan, Artvin, Batum, Kars, Olti, Beyazit, and Alashkert). It would also lose the by then completely theoretical suzerainty over Serbia, Montenegro and Romania. Also, the Ottoman Empire would completely lose control of her own finances in this period to a committee run by foreign powers.
And might a better 1874-1882 period mean that Abdul Hamid II resumes Turkish evolution towards constitutional democracy once the economy has stabilized? And might it make him a less paranoid ruler in general?
What do people think?
fasquardon