DBWI: No Republic of Ryukyu

mlp · Jun 23, 2015

During the height of the Pacific War it was decided amongst the great powers that, along with Korea and Taiwan, Ryukyu would also become independent in the effort to dismantle any of Japan's territorial gains after the Meiji Restoration. With the rise of Kuomintang China and growing territorial aggressiveness we know how the three states mentioned above worked as "buffer states" between China and the United States, keeping the cold war from becoming warmer and greatly helping to ensure peace in the region up to now.
Now let's say Ryukyu was Japanese, as was a highly possible end of the agreements made between the US, UK and China. How will this affect the political climate in East Asia? Will there be a more direct conflict between China and Japan? Between China and the United States? Will East Asia become more militarised in general, like what we saw along the Sino-Indian border? Interested in your comments and opinions.

mlp · Jun 27, 2015

ghappy1000 said:
Could the Kuomintang lose the civil war? If so, the threat of Communism would make American occupation of the Ryukyus and Japan less attracting and they might be desperate enough to use Japanese as allies.
[Dbwi scenarios use the perspective of other timelines.]

Seems an implausible idea though, the Chinese Communists remained a bandit force throughout the war and barely maintained their support base.
OOC: wasn't that what I did?

Gian · Jun 28, 2015

There wouldn't have been a revival of the Ryukyuan languages (or rather Okinawan, which was made the standard language). The Americans, and later the independent govt. created the institutions that speaheaded this revival (mainly to stand apart from the Japanese)

In fact, today Okinawan and English are the two main languages of Ryukyu.

mlp · Jul 6, 2015

Gian said:
There wouldn't have been a revival of the Ryukyuan languages (or rather Okinawan, which was made the standard language). The Americans, and later the independent govt. created the institutions that speaheaded this revival (mainly to stand apart from the Japanese)

In fact, today Okinawan and English are the two main languages of Ryukyu.

With most speaking both. Although, I believe Okinawan is mutually intelligible with Standard Japanese?

Charles RB · Jul 6, 2015

There's a big difference in Japanese/US relations - the Japanese saw this as one of the Home Islands being "stolen". Japan stayed in the US orbit for most of the Cold War but that undercurrent of resentment, of being "robbed", was a big factor in them going 'third faction' during the 80s. It wasn't until the 1990s and the bubble popping that they fully accepted Ryukyu independence as permanent and not temporary. (If you've seen any old anime set in the future, you've seen maps of Japan with Ryukyu in!)

mlp · Jul 6, 2015

Charles RB said:
There's a big difference in Japanese/US relations - the Japanese saw this as one of the Home Islands being "stolen". Japan stayed in the US orbit for most of the Cold War but that undercurrent of resentment, of being "robbed", was a big factor in them going 'third faction' during the 80s. It wasn't until the 1990s and the bubble popping that they fully accepted Ryukyu independence as permanent and not temporary. (If you've seen any old anime set in the future, you've seen maps of Japan with Ryukyu in!)

The economic crisis and the Fall of Tokyo sure did cripple the Japanese defence budget. Don't think there was anything close to an invasion plan for the Ryukyus though, would've been too obvious to the US what they were planning.

Charles RB · Jul 6, 2015

zeppelinair said:
The economic crisis and the Fall of Tokyo sure did cripple the Japanese defence budget. Don't think there was anything close to an invasion plan for the Ryukyus though, would've been too obvious to the US what they were planning.

Oh no, other than a few real nuts, there was nobody planning to invade* - they just thought the Ryukyu would 'see reason' at some point. Remember in 1989, when the Japanese started enforcing "their" maritime and air borders to restrict traffic to Ryukyu? That was in the middle of a customs union discussion! This is when Tokyo was drunk on money but still. Stupidity and chauvinism abounded.

* There was a trend in the late 50s, early 60s for stories where Japan liberates Ryukyu from a Chinese invasion though.

mlp · Jul 6, 2015

Charles RB said:
Oh no, other than a few real nuts, there was nobody planning to invade* - they just thought the Ryukyu would 'see reason' at some point. Remember in 1989, when the Japanese started enforcing "their" maritime and air borders to restrict traffic to Ryukyu? That was in the middle of a customs union discussion! This is when Tokyo was drunk on money but still. Stupidity and chauvinism abounded.

* There was a trend in the late 50s, early 60s for stories where Japan liberates Ryukyu from a Chinese invasion though.

I remember that failed customs union, the effort to rival the economic giant Malay Union became by that time(with the unification of Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines). Still can't believe Japan tried to include Brazil in the union just because of "Japanese elements within the country".
Good thing the Chinese sat tight too, if they even tried to escalate tensions with Japan shit would have gone down so quickly...

Charles RB · Jul 6, 2015

zeppelinair said:
Good thing the Chinese sat tight too, if they even tried to escalate tensions with Japan shit would have gone down so quickly...

For all the "yellow peril" talk during the Cold War, the Kuomintang were pretty willing to stick to specific borders and 'spheres of interest' - and as we know now (and really should've before), the Mongolia War exhausted them on open warfare.

mlp · Jul 6, 2015

Charles RB said:
For all the "yellow peril" talk during the Cold War, the Kuomintang were pretty willing to stick to specific borders and 'spheres of interest' - and as we know now (and really should've before), the Mongolia War exhausted them on open warfare.

At least they were happy to put the rest of Southeast Asia to rest after successfully invading Burma.

LordTerra · Jul 6, 2015

zeppelinair said:
At least they were happy to put the rest of Southeast Asia to rest after successfully invading Burma.

Yea but taking Burma has becoming nothing but a problem for China in the long-run. Most of South-East Asia has become hostile and India and Bangladesh aren't very happy with having a large Chinese army parked on their border in Burma. It's not made them many friends in the West either...

Plus the Burmese freedom fighters are still making China bleed through guerrilla warfare, though without outside intervention nothing it really going to change, those Nationalists in government aren't going to let the 'natural frontier' slip from their grasp.