A Shift in Priorities

[rast]

Wann m’r Schwobe gebbet, gebbet m’r reichlich. Ab’r m’r gebbet nix. – Once we Swabians give, we give generously. But we don’t give anything.
(Swabian axiom)

Sunday, March 16th, 1941, was the day when the German voters elected the Reichstag deputies that would represent them during the coming four years. The ballot in itself was hardly spectacular – and quite in line with the results of precursive elections. There had been no serious incidents accompanying the voting, and overall voter turnout was registered at 84.6 percent.

As had been the case in all Reichstags elections since the Great War, the PDS came out as the single strongest party. They gained 179 seats, even so five less than in March 1937. On the extreme left, the SAD improved by one seat and scored 5, all of them won in the Kingdom of Saxony and the adjacent Prussian province of Saxony.

The LDP, competing for the first time after the merger of FVP and NL, won 78 seats. This was a severe setback to the Liberals’ high hopes, because in 1937 FVP and NL together had taken 96 seats, but quite consequential with the 76 seats the LDP had occupied after the fusion.

The Zentrum and its Bavarian, Austrian and Tyrolian subsidiaries gained 96 seats, a very moderate improvement of one seat in comparison with 1937. The DNVP ended up with 50 seats, an enormous improvement to 1937, where they had won only 35, but nevertheless disappointing because 17 dissenting former NL deputies had swelled their ranks to 52 seats after the Liberals’ merger in October 1937.

Julius Streicher’s DVP increased the number of their seats from 53 to 59. Thus, the völkisch party had again been confirmed as the strongest force on the right. – The two remaining seats were taken by independent candidates.

Hardly had the end result been published when the haggling for power started. PDS and LDP together could easily form a coalition and provide the government. Combined, they possessed 257 seats from a total of 469. – But Gustav Stresemann was determined to form a centre-right coalition – and had managed to persuade the LDP deputies that Germany needed a change from perpetuated socialist rule.

But LDP, Zentrum and DNVP together could only muster 224 seats. As PDS and DVP could be trusted to agree on nothing between them, a minority government swaying between left and right could have worked – if not the Imperial Chancellor had to be elected with ordinary majority in the Reichstag.

While most DNVP delegates could accept striking a pact with the DVP, the bulk of deputies from Zentrum and LDP would never agree to any co-operation with the Deutsch-Völkischen. – Therefore, Stresemann’s scheme wasn’t going to work, even toleration was out of question. In a tumultuous session on March 24th, Stresemann was overthrown as chairman of the LDP and replaced by Theodor Heuss.

Two days later, PDS and LDP signed the agreement for forming a coalition government. The new chancellor thus was the old one – Otto Wels, elected in public session on April 2nd. Gustav Stresemann was no member of the new cabinet, which otherwise remained pretty much unchanged. His former slot, the position of colonial minister, was taken by Thomas Dehler (LDP). – For good or for bad, there would be no perceptible change in German political gesture.

[Jotun]

Will the Germans ever wake up to the fact that the Mittelafrikans keep going behind their backs at every damn opportunity?

Edit: Ninja'd by the latest update. Yawn! More SDP rule. Great :-/

[Expat]

I wish I knew more about German political culture. Is it the case that the largest coalition partner gets the lion's share (rather than a proportional share) of power?

I'm just wondering what kind of say a liberal party has in a socialist government, and if the answer is, "not very much," well why enter into a coalition at all?

[Monty Burns]

Originally Posted by Expat

I wish I knew more about German political culture. Is it the case that the largest coalition partner gets the lion's share (rather than a proportional share) of power?

I'm just wondering what kind of say a liberal party has in a socialist government, and if the answer is, "not very much," well why enter into a coalition at all?

The smaller partners actually have an overproportional share of power, I would say. Laws need a simple majority, and it's only through the small partner that the big partner can secure that majority. Furthermore, the smaller party is often more focused on a special electorate than the big party that naturally represents much more diverse directions.

Note though that this is mainly based on my impression on current German politics, not necessarily on the ones at the time.

In any case, PDS will likely continue its power until they either crumble from internal problems or a big christian-conservative party arises as IOTL. I doubt though that a union of DNVP and Zentrum is likely, as without WWII and the deportations their two electorates (catholic southern and western Germans against Protestant northern and eastern Germans) are too diverse.

[Expat]

Originally Posted by Monty Burns

The smaller partners actually have an overproportional share of power, I would say. Laws need a simple majority, and it's only through the small partner that the big partner can secure that majority. Furthermore, the smaller party is often more focused on a special electorate than the big party that naturally represents much more diverse directions.

Note though that this is mainly based on my impression on current German politics, not necessarily on the ones at the time.

In any case, PDS will likely continue its power until they either crumble from internal problems or a big christian-conservative party arises as IOTL. I doubt though that a union of DNVP and Zentrum is likely, as without WWII and the deportations their two electorates (catholic southern and western Germans against Protestant northern and eastern Germans) are too diverse.

Thanks for the lesson!
OK, so the right is pretty segmented and likely to stay that way. Maybe a split occurs on the left. We've seen evidence that the factions are there, though they seem stable and happy to remain in place at the moment. What could shake them out of their complacency?
A power struggle usually does the job.

[Jotun]

That fat cow Fischer seems to test the waters for a Socialist coup. All the while forgetting that much of her "Socialist" contemporaries and more important, the constituency seem to be quite happy with the status quo.

[Peabody-Martini]

Originally Posted by Jotun

That fat cow Fischer seems to test the waters for a Socialist coup. All the while forgetting that much of her "Socialist" contemporaries and more important, the constituency seem to be quite happy with the status quo.

It wouldn't be the first time in history when a would be revolutionary discovers that the very people they hope to lead into the glorious revolution have better things to do with their time. After a generation of relative peace and prosperity such talk would at best fall flat.

[Peabody-Martini]

There does seem to be a rural/urban divide developing. It will be interesting to see how this will play out largely due to economic, cultural and transit systems not lending themselves to the creation of largely middle class suburbs, which in OTL often served as a swing constituency.

Also without the extensive urban renewal, via the USAAF, that happened in OTL it will be interesting to see how the governments within the German cities evolve. The downtown core in many of these cities would essentially be the original medieval layout. Someone is going to have the bright idea that the streets should be straightened out, roads widened, old buildings torn down and replaced with shiny new eyesores, ect. Just how will the civic structures within the city government handle that and how will that play at the national level with leftest political parties often representing the interests of the trade unions that would benefit from such projects. There could be a strange inversion in TTL to where the call for strong environmental regulations and preservation of the identity of individual cities emerges first in the political right.

[Expat]

Originally Posted by Peabody-Martini

There does seem to be a rural/urban divide developing. It will be interesting to see how this will play out largely due to economic, cultural and transit systems not lending themselves to the creation of largely middle class suburbs, which in OTL often served as a swing constituency.

Also without the extensive urban renewal, via the USAAF, that happened in OTL it will be interesting to see how the governments within the German cities evolve. The downtown core in many of these cities would essentially be the original medieval layout. Someone is going to have the bright idea that the streets should be straightened out, roads widened, old buildings torn down and replaced with shiny new eyesores, ect. Just how will the civic structures within the city government handle that and how will that play at the national level with leftest political parties often representing the interests of the trade unions that would benefit from such projects. There could be a strange inversion in TTL to where the call for strong environmental regulations and preservation of the identity of individual cities emerges first in the political right.

I don't think many medieval (or renaissance or gilded age etc) city cores will be raised at this time. The backlash against raising whole cities was mounting throughout the 19th century and consensus was reached by the Great War.

The age-old solution of "old city/new city" is much more likely in most cases. Just build a new district next to the old city. Paris is probably the best OTL example, though Moscow stands out ITTL.

This creates an interesting tension with the architectural powers-that-be in Germany, of course, which has fascinating implications. IOTL they were given many opportunities to rebuild entire cities with impunity. Here, they are put at odds with preservationists. How will they react? I think the impulse is to say there will be a fight, but somehow I doubt it. I can see modernist architects talking about "rationality" in the abstract, but when it comes to tearing down 800 year old buildings? They'd never do so gleefully, at least not in great numbers.

So what happens? Subway systems wherever the ground allows. You rationalize the transportation under the city if you cannot do so at ground level. You need new, heavy rail transit lines anyway if you're connecting (for example) "Old Hamburg" to "New Hamburg." Something with higher occupancy than just trams if you're going from one dense place to another dense place (rather than less-dense urban periphery to dense urban center.)

Whether the "new" cities will have skyscrapers or not is kind of a cultural decision. They're a status symbol; they show the world how modern and advanced your city is. And if preservationist elements are focused on preserving "old" cities, there might be less pushback to construct tall buildings elsewhere. But on the other hand, one could argue that they're un-socialist, un-friendly, and un-German (or whatever your nation is; the nationalistic argument.)

I would bet the Italians would be into them. And maybe some of the newer nations of Eastern Europe who are looking to prove themselves. The Heymshtot is probably crawling with them. I won't comment on prospects in the rest of Europe at the moment.

[Monty Burns]

Originally Posted by Expat

Thanks for the lesson!
OK, so the right is pretty segmented and likely to stay that way. Maybe a split occurs on the left. We've seen evidence that the factions are there, though they seem stable and happy to remain in place at the moment. What could shake them out of their complacency?
A power struggle usually does the job.

PDS segmenting is IMHO the most likely reason for a government change. And it's always within possibilities, rast already pointed out in one post that the right wing of PDS is often more right wing than Zentrum or the Liberals whereas the radical Left is nothing else than that: radical. It's always difficult to keep radicals in place. I would assume that discussions in party conventions of PDS are always heated. Most of the right-wing faction wouldn't like ideas the leftists have on their agenda and the other way round. In the first years, the necessary reforms probably bound them together. But now that much was achieved by PDS, the radicals will want to go further, while the moderates won't. I guess that will become the division.

Of course, war or a severe recession can always do the trick.

[Arrix85]

Originally Posted by Monty Burns

PDS segmenting is IMHO the most likely reason for a government change. And it's always within possibilities, rast already pointed out in one post that the right wing of PDS is often more right wing than Zentrum or the Liberals whereas the radical Left is nothing else than that: radical. It's always difficult to keep radicals in place. I would assume that discussions in party conventions of PDS are always heated. Most of the right-wing faction wouldn't like ideas the leftists have on their agenda and the other way round. In the first years, the necessary reforms probably bound them together. But now that much was achieved by PDS, the radicals will want to go further, while the moderates won't. I guess that will become the division.

Of course, war or a severe recession can always do the trick.

I perfectly agree, let's hope war is not needed.

[rast]

The larger crimes are apt to be the simpler, for the bigger the crime, the more obvious, as a rule, is the motive.
(Sir Arthur Conan Doyle)

When the construction of the chemical factory had started at Kolekole, about ten kilometres south-southwest of Tanga, adjacent to the rail line from Daressalam, Kriminalinspektor Hermann Kizwete had assumed that this might be the ‘chemical plant’ that had been mentioned in conversation on board the ‘Auguste Viktoria’. He still hadn’t made any progress in investigating the murder of Anton Gozilla, all his endeavours had come to nothing. Officially, the case was long closed, but this unsolved homicide kept nagging on Hermann’s professional pride.

Learning more about the factory under construction had been rather easy. Nobody in the municipality seemed to be involved in the project; it was ‘managed by the bigwigs in Daressalam’ he had been told, one had no data, except that about 300 jobs would be created. But Kolekole belonged to his precinct; so, he had just dropped by. The site engineer had invited him for a cup of coffee. The plant was designed to produce insecticides, he explained, for protecting the crops and fighting malaria, quite a useful thing to have, wasn’t it? He had even shown the construction plans to Hermann. Yes, it was a joint venture between I.G. Farben and the secretariat of agriculture in Daressalam. One was still busy with the initial foundation engineering, the whole construction cycle was going to take three years. Yes, correct, the plant was going to be inaugurated in 1944, in the very year when Middle Africa was due to gain her independence…

Now, that really didn’t look suspicious. Hermann was at a loss – once again… Some weeks elapsed with routine work. Anton Gozilla’s murder had been the biggest crime that had happened in Tanga since the Great War; normal work was much more dull. Some robberies, some brawls, a lot of theft, an arson for a change; delinquency was often linked to the poverty in the shanty towns and alcohol abuse. It was no pleasant work, but one got along. – Then, he saw Busty Hanne sitting at an examination desk in the police station. She looked bruised, had bandied with another whore, who had denounced her for criminal assault, he was informed by the investigating officer.

Spotting Hermann, Hanne called out loud and beckoned him to come over. He had to help her, she was innocent, if not for Fritz, she never would have… – Fritz ter Meer? Had he been in Tanga again? – Yes, the other week... – Hermann whisked her away from the desk and ushered her into his office. – So, Fritz had been here? Yes, sure… Okay, Hanne was no great help. Fritz had been visiting over the weekend. She had been drunk most of the time and had only left bed for the loo. Fritz, when not in meetings, had been so ballsy, and so keen that she swallow all his jizz… But on Sunday, he had brought another slut to the suite… That was why she was here, having thrashed that bimbo…

Knowing time, place and a person, Hermann was on the snooping trail again. This time, there had been no boat cruise on the ‘Auguste Viktoria’, all meetings had taken place in the Augusta Hotel. Save ter Meer, there had been three men, all black, all obviously arrived from the capital. – They had registered in the hotel, but with fake identities. However, the personnel could provide exact descriptions. And Hermann knew an illustrator who was able to craft portraits working with the witnesses.

Showing around the portraits, Hermann was now trying to establish who these gentlemen were. Tanga wasn’t the capital, but nevertheless an important city, and many of its citizens were quite getting about. After about a week, Hermann was able to match names to the portraits. – Now, this was interesting: two of those gentlemen were army generals – and the third one had been discerned as a high ranking official in the staff of the Plenipotentiary. What had these blokes to do with an I.G. Farben boss, whose company was building the plant at Kolekole?

[Peabody-Martini]

In OTL IG Farben came to be synonymous with pure evil. In TTL things seem to have fallen along similar lines.