A Japanese Philippines

Isaac Beach

Banned
Is it possible for Japan, either by force or trade or some other method, to acquire the Spanish Philippines. Quite some time ago I created a map centering around if the Spanish had sold it to Japan to spite the Americans, but that seems rather convoluted and unlikely, not only because I doubt the Spanish have such positive relations with Japan but because even if they did they'd still sooner sell it to a European neighbour.

So, any ideas? Or is it just ASB outright?
 
I dont see it as likely pre-1900 but there is a small, if unlikely chance if Japan makes a slightly faster modernization.

The biggest obstacle with be the Colonial powers that won't want Japan having a valuble territory so close to their colonies. A possibility could be a partition between several powers, maybe Japan getting Manila and a few of the northern islands with nations like the Netherlands, France, UK, etc splitting the rest up among themselves.

Possibly a European War or Spain trying to re-gain past glory against Japan and the other nations getting involved due to the main area of conflict being so close to their assets and not wanting Japan to have all the Philippines if they are successful early on in the war. I doubt any Spanish-Japanese war could lead to a general European wide war but it could get the UK and France to intervene.
 
Toyotomi Hideyoshi wanted to invade Luzon while he was in power. So you'd need a Hideyoshi wank for this to happen, as well as postponing any plans to invade Korea. Following the conquest of Luzon, have Japan take over the rest of the Philippines.

I'm not sure how plausible a Meiji-era Japan invasion of the Philippines might be. I think Japan could win based on the poor state of the Spanish navy as well as Japan's success against Russia, but would they ever really want to start the fight against Spain?
 
No, unless you make Japan Catholic and thus interested in the world at large. And then you can have it gain the Philippines in the inevitable collapse of the Spanish Empire.

Until then, though, the answer is no.
 
Well there's a couple of obvious ways, but they'd be massive changes that would result in huge butterflies.

1. Have the United States either not exist or be sufficiently reduced that they're not that interested in the Pacific. If we have that, but still have a Meiji-type change in Japan, then they could end up nabbing the Philippines in the absence of any interest from elsewhere. For what I mean by reduced America, see these maps by Bruce Munro:

http://quantumbranching.deviantart.com/art/Vive-Le-Canada-Francais-499176262

http://quantumbranching.deviantart.com/art/Colossus-of-the-South-392221202

In either of these settings, if there was a Meiji-style shift, then a lack of interest from America would mean that Japan stood a greater chance of grabbing the Philippines.

2. A post-1900 one, this one. America gets it as OTL, but something happens to cause a Second Civil War in the 1930s (a la Chipperback's Catherverse, or The Falcon Cannot Hear). If that happened, you can bet that Japan would be moving in to 'preserve order' in the Philippines very quickly.
 
Well there's a couple of obvious ways, but they'd be massive changes that would result in huge butterflies.

1. Have the United States either not exist or be sufficiently reduced that they're not that interested in the Pacific. If we have that, but still have a Meiji-type change in Japan, then they could end up nabbing the Philippines in the absence of any interest from elsewhere. For what I mean by reduced America, see these maps by Bruce Munro:

http://quantumbranching.deviantart.com/art/Vive-Le-Canada-Francais-499176262

http://quantumbranching.deviantart.com/art/Colossus-of-the-South-392221202

In either of these settings, if there was a Meiji-style shift, then a lack of interest from America would mean that Japan stood a greater chance of grabbing the Philippines.

2. A post-1900 one, this one. America gets it as OTL, but something happens to cause a Second Civil War in the 1930s (a la Chipperback's Catherverse, or The Falcon Cannot Hear). If that happened, you can bet that Japan would be moving in to 'preserve order' in the Philippines very quickly.

Too many butterflies! America not getting from sea to shining sea is difficult as it is.

Also, why is everyone so interested in wanking Japan? I mean, it's already the only Asian great power for the better halves of the 19th and 20th centuries. Is there no other that can take its place?

I forget the factors in it, but are they so difficult to replicate in other parts of the region?
 

Isaac Beach

Banned
Too many butterflies! America not getting from sea to shining sea is difficult as it is.

Also, why is everyone so interested in wanking Japan? I mean, it's already the only Asian great power for the better halves of the 19th and 20th centuries. Is there no other that can take its place?

I forget the factors in it, but are they so difficult to replicate in other parts of the region?

Well, I imagine there's a weeb factor coming into play, of course. But you've spelt it out for yourself what is most likely the most usual rationale right there. It was a great power, wasn't it? It was cool and powerful, like the British Empire or the USA now or -if you swing that way- the USSR or Nazi Germany or the Byzantines or the various versions of Russia and China. So wouldn't it be neat to see what might happen if you took that a step further? Or tried to preserve them to the present day?
No offence, but historically, and especially recently the Suomi or the Tswana or the Tujia haven't exactly been the most vibrant stars in the constellation of nations that take up our lonely little planet.

As for alternatives? Well Japan was pretty unique in that it was a relatively advanced society with a dense culture and the stability brought about by being a large chain of large islands with enough resources to initially get off the ground and the population to move beyond that. Other countries suffer from the biggest issue of generally being on the border of larger and more belligerent opponents, lacking the capacity for the same isolation that kept Japan safe for so long especially when talking about colonialism. Though that's just what I gather from it.

I'm asking the question mostly so I can see about redoing a map where Japan fulfills the title query; getting the Philippines, but I want to do that with a touch more believability and logic. (Plus it needs a rehash because it's a very poorly edited map) You can see it below *coughplugcough*:

http://dain-siegfried.deviantart.com/art/The-Stake-That-Sticks-Out-553998005
 
Toyotomi Hideyoshi wanted to invade Luzon while he was in power. So you'd need a Hideyoshi wank for this to happen, as well as postponing any plans to invade Korea. Following the conquest of Luzon, have Japan take over the rest of the Philippines.


In fact, if you read the spanish reports at the time, they were really worried about the possibility of a japanese invasion, specially after japanese privateers where spotted north of Luzon. It was one of the driving reasons to the first fortifications in Manila.

I'm not sure how plausible a Meiji-era Japan invasion of the Philippines might be. I think Japan could win based on the poor state of the Spanish navy as well as Japan's success against Russia, but would they ever really want to start the fight against Spain?

Well, the spanish bavy was in poor state, but as wad as the russian navy? On the other hand, if the japanese achieve a victory at sea, can they achieve a victory on land?
 
Too many butterflies! America not getting from sea to shining sea is difficult as it is.

I'd agree on the first one's butterflies (though I really like the idea of Gran Colombia being the major American power along with an expanded British North America :D )

The second, though... It seems to be a consensus that while a Second Civil War in the 30s would be difficult, it wouldn't be impossible. And as I say, if that happened, as soon as the fighting got really bad, Japan would swoop into the Philippines while the US' hands were full (and its existence was in question...)

I forget the factors in it, but are they so difficult to replicate in other parts of the region?

The only two other prospects are Korea and China. And both seem to have had far more entrenched conservative elements than Japan. It'd take more than a Meiji to change them - not impossible, but difficult.

Well, the spanish bavy was in poor state, but as wad as the russian navy? On the other hand, if the japanese achieve a victory at sea, can they achieve a victory on land?

If they could beat Russian forces in Manchuria, I'd say they could overwhelm whatever colonial troops were in the Philippines. Especially given native resistance to Spain.
 
I'd agree on the first one's butterflies (though I really like the idea of Gran Colombia being the major American power along with an expanded British North America :D )

The second, though... It seems to be a consensus that while a Second Civil War in the 30s would be difficult, it wouldn't be impossible. And as I say, if that happened, as soon as the fighting got really bad, Japan would swoop into the Philippines while the US' hands were full (and its existence was in question...)

True. But I'm not going to get into how difficult actually pacifying a large and diverse nation with a fundamentally different culture such as ours is. They had trouble enough with pacifying another nation with a common context like Korea.

The only two other prospects are Korea and China. And both seem to have had far more entrenched conservative elements than Japan. It'd take more than a Meiji to change them - not impossible, but difficult.

If they could beat Russian forces in Manchuria, I'd say they could overwhelm whatever colonial troops were in the Philippines. Especially given native resistance to Spain.

Considering how Korea went, forgive me for being skeptical about Japan's prospects here. Especially if they go full-tilt militarist.

That native resistance wasn't just against Spain, whom we shared a common culture and religion with*. It was against America too, and against Japan when they were here.

If Japan can promise autonomy, we'd get along just fine. But I doubt that.

*You could actually say our revolution was akin to that of America's, complete with that awakening of the idea of a native land. What happened after is a fate that could have come to an ATL America, riven by factionalism and devoured by other powers.
 
I don't know very much about Japan in this time period (or this time period in general actually), but what if somehow the Japanese got pulled into European power politics of the time. Maybe some of the Catholic daimyo side with the Portuguese due to their relationship with the missionaries, and attack Spanish possessions during a conflict between Spain and Portugal? Or maybe ally with the Dutch if Protestant missionaries and traders get through to them during the Eighty Years War? I don't really know but thought I can spitball here, hopefully constructively.
 
A Japanese Philippines seems unlikely if we are talking by the late 1800's. Japan has only recently industrialized, and I don't think they would have the money to buy it, assuming it goes over without protest.

An earlier POD means no Tokugawa, considering they came to power via an alliance system, they need to maintain, with general isolation to help keep thing in order. The question then is who else can do it, which a damn annoying problem in itself

With Oda Nobunaga and Toyotomi Hideyoshi, well you won't have the above. Yet both are probably gonna go against Korea or China, unless Nobunaga dies after unifying Japan, or with Hideyoshi he gets adopted by the emperor and has no legitimacy issues.

The colonization system isn't that difficult to use, you could transplant and modify the Kakizaki/Matsuemae and Hokkaido, although it is going to be much different. The real kicker is what's the Northern part of Philippines like at least in terms of population and culture, and by the time of the early to late 1580's, and how much did the Spanish actually control it?
 
In fact, if you read the spanish reports at the time, they were really worried about the possibility of a japanese invasion, specially after japanese privateers where spotted north of Luzon. It was one of the driving reasons to the first fortifications in Manila.

Well, the spanish bavy was in poor state, but as wad as the russian navy? On the other hand, if the japanese achieve a victory at sea, can they achieve a victory on land?

Correct. But I don't see what Russia has to do with this (unless late 19th century POD). Japan could seize at least Luzon long before Russia even reaches the Pacific in their march across Siberia. From there, I don't know if Japan might be interested, but why not? I think Japan getting any more involved might require them to be integrated somewhat into the European system of the time (may or may not require conversion to Christianity, but the Ottomans were integrated enough, so...), but with Luzon, Japan would be in position to take the rest of the islands. An early Anglo-Japanese alliance? Certainly England might appreciate a powerful country messing with Spain's plans in the Indies.
 
Correct. But I don't see what Russia has to do with this (unless late 19th century POD). Japan could seize at least Luzon long before Russia even reaches the Pacific in their march across Siberia.

Me neither. It was you who mentioned the example of the Russo-Japanese War ;)

From there, I don't know if Japan might be interested, but why not? I think Japan getting any more involved might require them to be integrated somewhat into the European system of the time (may or may not require conversion to Christianity, but the Ottomans were integrated enough, so...), but with Luzon, Japan would be in position to take the rest of the islands. An early Anglo-Japanese alliance? Certainly England might appreciate a powerful country messing with Spain's plans in the Indies.

This is the late 19th century, not the 17th century. "England" doesn't give a shit about non-existent spanish plans in the Eastern Indies and Spain was bussy enough trying to keep the Philipinnes. Also, in the european concert, Spain is clearly linked (economically and diplomatically) to Britain and France, as the example, amongst others, of the successive Mediterranean Treaties shows. I don't think Britain is going to get involved in this.

I'm not denying the possibility of a Japanese victory (if they have the will and the reasons to go to war with Spain over the Philippines), but I'm pointing is that it's not a given.
 
The Katipunan seems to have looked to Japan very warmly, and they had at least some unofficial ties there. Not that they ever envisioned being ruled by Japan, of course, but they thought of her as a model of sorts.
There was an incident (in 1896 I think) when the Spanish requisitioned a Japanese ship allegedly because it was smuggling arms to the Filipino patriots or something (probably untrue IIRC). Both sides managed to keep the matter in the realm of diplomacy, and the timing is entirely wrong for Japan going a-venturing just immediately after the Triple Intervention.
But there is a small chance for the crisis to escalate.
In that case, there is little Spain can do to prevent a Japanese seizure of the key points of the archipelago. Of course, keeping the place, in the face of both disillusioned Filipino opposition and likely hostile Great Power diplomacy, is another matter... A likely outcome is a formally independent but subservient Philippine state, that Japan might try to swallow later (not necessarily successfully).
 

Isaac Beach

Banned
The Katipunan seems to have looked to Japan very warmly, and they had at least some unofficial ties there. Not that they ever envisioned being ruled by Japan, of course, but they thought of her as a model of sorts.
There was an incident (in 1896 I think) when the Spanish requisitioned a Japanese ship allegedly because it was smuggling arms to the Filipino patriots or something (probably untrue IIRC). Both sides managed to keep the matter in the realm of diplomacy, and the timing is entirely wrong for Japan going a-venturing just immediately after the Triple Intervention.
But there is a small chance for the crisis to escalate.
In that case, there is little Spain can do to prevent a Japanese seizure of the key points of the archipelago. Of course, keeping the place, in the face of both disillusioned Filipino opposition and likely hostile Great Power diplomacy, is another matter... A likely outcome is a formally independent but subservient Philippine state, that Japan might try to swallow later (not necessarily successfully).

So that means there are three somewhat plausible PODs, right? And that the earlier back the POD the more likely it becomes. 1500s, 1896 and 1930s, right? Not that I wanna twist facts to suit fiction. But then what's the most likely?
 
This is the late 19th century, not the 17th century. "England" doesn't give a shit about non-existent spanish plans in the Eastern Indies and Spain was bussy enough trying to keep the Philipinnes. Also, in the european concert, Spain is clearly linked (economically and diplomatically) to Britain and France, as the example, amongst others, of the successive Mediterranean Treaties shows. I don't think Britain is going to get involved in this.

I'm not denying the possibility of a Japanese victory (if they have the will and the reasons to go to war with Spain over the Philippines), but I'm pointing is that it's not a given.

I don't think we're on the same page here (I see my responses were a bit vague). But I know a strong country in the Far East messing with Spanish plans and operations there would be an appreciated ally of England's, at least when England and Spain were hostile to each other (which was most of the time). The Philippines were at least somewhat useful to Spain, what with the Manila galleons and all that.

For late 19th/early 20th century (last chance Japan really has to seize the Philippines barring near-ASB luck/success in WWII), Britain will not get involved, unless something like the Dogger Bank incident happens and Spain gives a really, really stupid response to it.

But I think a Japanese victory is probably a given, even if Spain did a better job committing their forces to the Philippines. It wouldn't as "easy" as the US had it. The real difficulty would come in dealing with the Filipinos themselves.
 
I don't think we're on the same page here (I see my responses were a bit vague). But I know a strong country in the Far East messing with Spanish plans and operations there would be an appreciated ally of England's, at least when England and Spain were hostile to each other (which was most of the time). The Philippines were at least somewhat useful to Spain, what with the Manila galleons and all that.

For late 19th/early 20th century (last chance Japan really has to seize the Philippines barring near-ASB luck/success in WWII), Britain will not get involved, unless something like the Dogger Bank incident happens and Spain gives a really, really stupid response to it.

But I think a Japanese victory is probably a given, even if Spain did a better job committing their forces to the Philippines. It wouldn't as "easy" as the US had it. The real difficulty would come in dealing with the Filipinos themselves.

Pretty much! Between the unruly Catholic majority and the fierce pagan and Muslim holdouts on our fair collection of islands, Japan will find it far more difficult to pacify our country than America did. Especially if they wave the pan-Asian flag as a cover for their imperialism.
 
Pretty much! Between the unruly Catholic majority and the fierce pagan and Muslim holdouts on our fair collection of islands, Japan will find it far more difficult to pacify our country than America did. Especially if they wave the pan-Asian flag as a cover for their imperialism.

I suspect that there will be a bloody insurrection that Japan will win in the long run but drains them both politically and economically. Probably no Russo-Japanese war and less influence in Korea. The Russian foreign minister was keen to make an agreement with Japan in the Pacific before the war broke out and in TTL Japan is likely much more receptive to Russian overtures.
 
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