Manchurian SSR

ALF0N53 · Sep 17, 2014

What POD(s) would lead to Manchuria becoming a republic of the Soviet Union?

Sharunaku · Sep 17, 2014

Mao got eliminated before the war, and Chiang being on the very top of American payroll, making Stalin try to salvage something out of China.

Lalli · Sep 17, 2014

Imperial Russia could annex Manchuria on early 20th century and on 1922 or bit later it gains soviet republic status.

Thoresby · Sep 17, 2014

What Lalli said. Have Russia take Inner Manchuria in the 1850's at the same time as Outer Manchuria and before the Chuang Guandong filled the region with Han settlers.

Sharunaku · Sep 17, 2014

Lalli said:
Imperial Russia could annex Manchuria on early 20th century and on 1922 or bit later it gains soviet republic status.

It would likely break away during the collapse of the Russian Empire by a nationalist rebellion, like Finland, Poland and the Baltic states.

Thoresby said:
What Lalli said. Have Russia take Inner Manchuria in the 1850's at the same time as Outer Manchuria and before the Chuang Guandong filled the region with Han settlers.

Inner Manchuria is the Manchu heartland. Russia had to fight the entire Qing China for that, which is something they doesn't seem to be capable of in the 1850s.

Thoresby · Sep 17, 2014

Sharunaku said:
Inner Manchuria is the Manchu heartland. Russia had to fight the entire Qing China for that, which is something they doesn't seem to be capable of in the 1850s.

Well they managed to pull off the Northern Manchuria/Amur Annexation without any resistance from China which was at the time being smashed in the Second Opium War so if Russia had actually used force they could have got even more. Though in OTL the orders were to get as much as possible without using force because of the aftermath of the Crimean War meant Russia wasn't in a position to fight. So it would require a change in policy, maybe butterfly away the Crimean War but still have a Second Opium War?

MonAngel · Sep 17, 2014

Sharunaku said:
It would likely break away during the collapse of the Russian Empire by a nationalist rebellion, like Finland, Poland and the Baltic states.

Indeed. But Manchuria will be re-annexed after WWII.

Sharunaku said:
Inner Manchuria is the Manchu heartland. Russia had to fight the entire Qing China for that, which is something they doesn't seem to be capable of in the 1850s.

Agree. It is hard to annex 1850's. But it can be annexed By Soviets like Eastern Poland, Besserabia or Karelia.

Of course you need to make WWII play out more differently.
Soviets are more successful against Nazi and US is less successful against Japanese Empire. So US needs Soviet Union participation in Pacific War badly thus are more willing to compromise Soviet expansion. This could result united but neutral Korea.

Sharunaku · Sep 17, 2014

One thing to be considered: Manchuria was home to 36 million in 1937 IOTL, even more than the Ukrainian SSR. If the USSR were to annex it, they would be ~18% of the entire population. By 1945, there were 45 million "Sinitic" i.e. Han and Altaic people living in Manchuria, which would be ~21% if the USSR integrated it. I don't see it becoming an SSR with such large number of non-Rus, seeing cases like Poland.

Thoresby · Sep 17, 2014

Sharunaku said:
One thing to be considered: Manchuria was home to 36 million in 1937 IOTL, even more than the Ukrainian SSR. If the USSR were to annex it, they would be ~18% of the entire population. By 1945, there were 45 million "Sinitic" i.e. Han and Altaic people living in Manchuria, which would be ~21% if the USSR integrated it. I don't see it becoming an SSR with such large number of non-Rus, seeing cases like Poland.

That was only after a massive northward migration in the previous century, comparable in to the settling of the Western North America. In 1850 the region was lightly populated by Manchu nomads.

danderson · Sep 17, 2014

Yeah this is hard with a post 1900 POD.

Pre-1900 maybe you could have some kind of revolt against the Qing that sees a lot of china fall out of their control, maybe even all of it, forcing them back into their manchurian homelands. All before there are lots of han immigrants. Suddenly you have this area ripe for the taking.

LeX · Sep 17, 2014

With a post-Russian Empire PoD you're going to get the PRC aka North China aka Manchuria (as a geographic, not ethnic term), not any SSR. Between 1900 and 1911 the Russian empire barely has a chance of pulling off an annexation of the region. Keep that Soviet, and it becomes an SSR.