Chretien's Wise Men: A Canadian Timeline

Before I begin, here's a bit of background. Prior to the 2000 federal election, Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien tried hard to convince Newfoundland Premier Brian Tobin, Saskatchewan Premier Roy Romanow, former New Brunswick Premier Frank McKenna, and former Ontario Premier Bob Rae to run for the Liberals. Only Tobin agreed; McKenna thought the Liberals would be defeated, while, from what I remember, Romanow (a New Democrat) was uncomfortable with switching parties, despite his strong friendship with Chretien. I'm not sure why Rae didn't run, though I believe it had something to do with him wanting to take a break from politics following the defeat of his unpopular government 5 years earlier.

Anyway, this timeline is basically, "What if Chretien got his wish?", and imaging where things could have gone afterward. I'll give a shout-out to CanadianTory, whose timelines have inspired the format for this (i.e. told as CBC news stories).

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Romanow, Tobin among shocking additions in latest cabinet shuffle
High-profile recruits have fueled election speculation
CBC News Posted: Sep 16, 2000 1:31 PM | Last Updated: Sep 16, 2000 1:31 PM

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Roy Romanow (left) and Allan Rock (right) watch as Prime Minister Jean Chretien speaks to reporters (CP)

In a stunning move likely to boost the Liberals fortunes nationwide, Prime Minister Jean Chretien has added Saskatchewan Premier Roy Romanow, Newfoundland Premier Brian Tobin, former Ontario Premier Bob Rae, and former New Brunswick Premier Frank McKenna to his cabinet, and has confirmed that the four will run for the party in the next election.

The high-profile recruits have triggered an increase in speculation that an election call is imminent, particularly since Chretien is unlikely to want to keep the high-profile group of four out of the House of Commons for long.

In the unexpected cabinet shuffle earlier today, Chretien named Romanow as Justice minister, Tobin as Industry minister, Rae as Transport minister, and McKenna as National Defence minister.

Among the other notable changes, John Manley has been named as Foreign Affairs minister, taking over from Lloyd Axworthy, who previously announced he would not seek re-election. Anne McLellan, who Romanow replaced as Justice minister, has been named Solicitor General, while David Collenette has been named the Minister of Public Works and Government Services.

Speaking earlier today, Chretien told reporters that the cabinet represents the best his government has to offer, and hinted at an election.

Indeed, the group of recruits were quickly named Liberal candidates earlier today, with Romanow taking the nomination in Saskatoon—Humboldt, one of the few Liberal-friendly ridings in his province, and Tobin being nominated in Bonavista—Trinity—Conception, recently vacated by former Liberal MP Fred Mifflin. McKenna was nominated the Liberal candidate in Madawaska—Restigouche, while Rae won the nomination in York South—Weston, the riding he used to represent provincially, and where he will face Independent MP John Nunziata.

While the recruitments of Romanow and Rae, both members of the NDP, may come as a surprise, Chretien’s personal relations with both are expected to have made the decision easy. Romanow has long been a friend of Chretien, dating back to when the two were both Justice ministers during the 1981 Constitutional Accord, while Rae's brother John is a senior Chretien staffer.

Speaking to reporters later in the day, opposition leaders were quick to criticize Chretien's new recruits. Leader of the Opposition Stockwell Day claimed that Romanow and Tobin’s sudden resignations left their provinces “abandoned” and criticized the economic record of Rae, claiming that the Liberals “can no longer claim they are the party of fiscal responsibility.” Progressive Conservative leader Joe Clark echoed these statements, saying that Canadians can't trust a government that includes Rae with their finances.

NDP leader Alexa McDonough, whose party is likely to be hurt most by these recruits, said she was surprised by Romanow's and Rae's decision, and “hoped to two of them would have been more principled enough to decline [Chretien's] offer.”

Janice MacKinnon named Saskatchewan's first female Premier
Served as Deputy Premier, Minister of Finance in Romanow cabinet
CBC News Posted: Sep 17, 2000 9:13 AM | Last Updated: Sep 17, 2000 9:13 AM

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Janice MacKinnon speaking to reporters shortly after being sworn in as Saskatchewan's newest Premier (CP)

Janice MacKinnon has been named Saskatchewan's first female Premier, replacing Roy Romanow, who announced yesterday that he was making the leap to federal politics – but not as a New Democrat, but as a Liberal.

MacKinnon, who aside from naming Pat Atkinson as Finance minister has kept Romanow's cabinet the same, told reporters that she was proud of her predecessor’s record, and confessed that she had known he had been thinking about making the leap to federal politics “for several months.”

When asked by reporters if she would run for the provincial NDP leadership, MacKinnon (who at the moment is only the interim Premier and interim leader) said that the party was in the midst of determining the date and rules of the contest, and that she would make that decision when the time comes. Other candidates rumoured to be interested in the job are former cabinet ministers Lorne Calvert and Dwight Lingenfelter.

MacKinnon dismissed suggestions that Romanow's party switch would hurt her party, saying that the political dynamic in Saskatchewan is much different at the provincial level than it is at the federal level, adding that “if [Romanow] was running in my riding, I'd be voting Liberal.”

Still, New Democrats in Saskatchewan have voiced their concern that Romanow's departure could hurt the NDP, both provincially and federally. Regina MP Lorne Nystrom told reporters that he was “disappointed” that Romanow chose to run for the Liberals instead of the NDP, and admitted that Romanow alone could possibly cause a handful of ridings to switch from the NDP or Alliance over to the Liberals.

Indeed, the NDP was already dealt a hard blow earlier today, as Churchill River MP Rick Laliberte announced that he would be crossing the floor to join the Liberals.

Nystrom said that he expected the NDP to remain in a strong position, but that he wouldn’t be surprised if the provincial Liberals saw an uptick in fortunes as a side effect.​
 
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I'm ashamed it took me so long to find this. First off, thank you for the shout-out, I'm very honored that my style will be the article template. Second, this is an amazing idea, can't wait to see the ramifications both Federally and Provincially. With so many egos, Paul Martin might actually have to work for the leadership :p

Can't wait to see what you have planned! :D
 
Sounds like fun, though I'm skeptical of anyone overcoming Martin's organizational advantages. Curious to see if Chretien follows through on that leftish agenda originally planned.
 
Interesting premise... even if Martin still handily wins the leadership, the Grits will have a much wider pool to replace him come 2006.

I'll be following this.
 
*bump*

I'm interested how this will effect what will most likely still be the merger of the two major-right wing parties. Will it occur sooner due to these new power players? Will someone other than Harper step up? Questions, questions.
 
Note: I'm skipping over most of the 2000 election, since the recruitment of "the Wise Men" doesn't change much that happens on the campaign trail itself.

*bump*

I'm interested how this will effect what will most likely still be the merger of the two major-right wing parties. Will it occur sooner due to these new power players? Will someone other than Harper step up? Questions, questions.

Likely merger? Well, I better do something about that! :p

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Liberals re-elected with majority government
Chretien first Prime Minister since Wilfrid Laurier to win three consecutive majorities
CBC News Posted: Nov 27, 2000 11:32 PM | Last Updated: Nov 27, 2000 11:32 PM

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Jean Chretien speaks to Liberal supporters on election night (CBC News)

Jean Chretien’s Liberals were re-elected earlier today with a strong majority government of 175 seats, with Chretien becoming the first Prime Minister to win three consecutive majority governments since Wilfrid Laurier in 1904.

With 41 per cent of the vote, the Liberals picked up significant ground in both Atlantic Canada and Quebec, where the Liberals put up their strongest performance since 1980, winning a larger number of votes than the Bloc Quebecois, although coming in second in terms of seats. While the party lost some ground in British Columbia, where several MPs were defeated by Alliance candidates, the party significantly improved in Saskatchewan, largely due to the presence of former Premier Roy Romanow.

Speaking to supporters, Chretien proudly claimed that Canadians have once again shown their confidence in his government, and that his government “will work as hard as we can to make sure it stays that way.”

The Alliance, with 65 seats and 25.5 per cent of the vote, will again form the official opposition. Party leader Stockwell Day told supporters the outcome was not what he had wanted, but triumphed the fact that the party increased their support by over 6 per cent and saw large increases of support in Atlantic Canada and Ontario, where the party was able to elect two MPs.

Although Day has said he intends to stay on as leader, he is likely to face some opposition in his party as a result of a poor campaign that saw Day stumble from gaffe to gaffe.​

The Progressive Conservatives and NDP, with 12 and 11 seats respectively, both lost support from the last election, as voters flocked to the Liberals in Eastern Canada and the Alliance in Western Canada. Progressive Conservative leader Joe Clark congratulated Chretien on his victory, and indicated that he would stay on as leader. New Democrat leader Alexa McDonough, who struggled during the campaign to counter Liberal attempts to woo the left, did not answer questions about if she would stay on as NDP leader, but said she was proud of her campaign.

With all of Chretien’s cabinet re-elected – or newly elected in the case of star candidates Brian Tobin, Bob Rae, Roy Romanow, and Frank McKenna – it is expected to remain the same, having been most recently shuffled back in September.

Chretien, meanwhile, gave few hints toward his political future, despite most speculating that he will resign as Liberal leader and Prime Minister during the upcoming term.

Alexa McDonough resigns as NDP leader
Party lost official status during yesterday's election
CBC News Posted: Nov 28, 2000 10:19 AM | Last Updated: Nov 28, 2000 10:19 AM

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Alexa McDonough has announced she will resign as NDP leader (CP)

Alexa McDonough announced late last night that she would be resigning as leader of the NDP after having led the party to a loss of 10 seats (and official party status) in yesterday’s election.

McDonough, who’s led the party since 1995, told party supporters of her decision at the party’s election rally in Halifax as the results became clear. McDonough said that she was proud of her leadership, and happy to have made an impact, particularly “in showing those of us here in the Atlantic that the NDP isn’t half bad,” a statement which elicited applause from the crowd.

Speaking earlier today to CBC News, McDonough said that she would remain as party leader until her successor is chosen, something she expects to happen in the spring or summer. McDonough further stated that she would stay on as an MP until the next election, although wasn’t quite sure if she’d seek re-election or not, saying it was too early to tell.

Rumoured candidates for the NDP leadership include Saskatchewan MP Lorne Nystrom and British Columbia MP Svend Robinson, both of whom ran against McDonough in 1995, Manitoba MP Bill Blaikie, former candidates Michael Valpy and Mel Watkins, and Toronto city councillor Jack Layton.
 
Will Chrétien offer the Dippers some Cabinet posts, as some ministers urged IOTL? Or a bit further, perhaps?
 
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Awesome infobox, looking forward to seeing how this all plays out.

Thanks!

Will Chrétien offer the Dippers some Cabinet posts, as some ministers urged IOTL? Or a bit further, perhaps?

Hmm, I wasn't aware of this. Perhaps, but not right now. It depends on who the NDP chooses to succeed McDonough. And either way, at this point Romanow and Rae are still seen as "Dippers in Liberal clothing", and both have pretty important cabinet posts.
 
Interesting premise. Wonder what effects this has on the Liberal support base going forward. Are Romanow and Tobin popular/credible enough to attract some extra support in their home provinces for the Liberals federally even after switching parties and the media field day about sponsorship? I could also see the addition of some extra potential leaders and organizers within the party helping halt the Liberal decline faster than OTL (assuming it isn't butterflied away).

(For the record I freely admit I am a Liberal voter and do have some degree of political bias).
 
Interesting premise. Wonder what effects this has on the Liberal support base going forward. Are Romanow and Tobin popular/credible enough to attract some extra support in their home provinces for the Liberals federally even after switching parties and the media field day about sponsorship? I could also see the addition of some extra potential leaders and organizers within the party helping halt the Liberal decline faster than OTL (assuming it isn't butterflied away).

(For the record I freely admit I am a Liberal voter and do have some degree of political bias).

Tobin helped the Liberals about as much as he did IRL, and Romanow definitely helped the Liberals, as the party won three more seats in the province, along with Wascana and Churchill River, thanks to his candidacy alone.

Thanks for the interest.
 
Tobin helped the Liberals about as much as he did IRL, and Romanow definitely helped the Liberals, as the party won three more seats in the province, along with Wascana and Churchill River, thanks to his candidacy alone.

Thanks for the interest.

Thanks for the info (and writing an interesting idea).
 
Just out of curiosity's sake, how would this strong Liberal legacy, affect the Unite the Right movement. Would it speed up the demise of the PC, or lead to a newer look, and party platform?

I ask because it breaks my heart to see Stanfields' party disappear, and replaced by this blind cow being lead by extremist, when there were plenty of options available to members.

How is this stronger Liberal legacy going to deal with the boiling over of the patronage issues, that Cretien was famous for when he steps down? Will they cover it up, and tend to business as usual, or will Jean find a scape-goat? This and the sponsorship scandal were the two serious hacks in their ability to drawn confidence from Canadian voters, and what gave Harper and Co. the momentum to hammer away at the electorate.

Thirdly, how will this deal with the infrastructure, and military investment crunch we will be heading into this decade? (20year later)

What would be cool is Romanov becoming PM, and whiling winning a minority, coalitions with the remaining NDP for a majority in 2006.
 
Thanks for the info (and writing an interesting idea).

No problem.

I honestly feel Tobin would've been an excellent choice as leader.

Agreed, it's a shame he (along with John Manley, Martin Cauchon, Allan Rock, etc. - just about all of Chretien's frontbench, really) didn't run in 2006. Instead, we got Dion, who while I personally like, clearly wasn't electable.

His French isn't up to par, though.

True, but neither is Harper's...

Now this should be pretty good. I've always had a fascination with Canadian politics.

Thanks, glad you're interested.

Just out of curiosity's sake, how would this strong Liberal legacy, affect the Unite the Right movement. Would it speed up the demise of the PC, or lead to a newer look, and party platform?

I ask because it breaks my heart to see Stanfields' party disappear, and replaced by this blind cow being lead by extremist, when there were plenty of options available to members.

How is this stronger Liberal legacy going to deal with the boiling over of the patronage issues, that Cretien was famous for when he steps down? Will they cover it up, and tend to business as usual, or will Jean find a scape-goat? This and the sponsorship scandal were the two serious hacks in their ability to drawn confidence from Canadian voters, and what gave Harper and Co. the momentum to hammer away at the electorate.

Thirdly, how will this deal with the infrastructure, and military investment crunch we will be heading into this decade? (20year later)

What would be cool is Romanov becoming PM, and whiling winning a minority, coalitions with the remaining NDP for a majority in 2006.

Even more than the sponsorship scandal, I think what really screwed the Liberals over IRL is the Martin-Chretien infighting, which turned a lot of people away from the party. With a lot more potential leadership candidates in cabinet now, it's possible Martin may have some competition.
 
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