300 U Boats
- Thread starter majveg
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usertron2020
Donor
Building 300 U-Boats I'm pretty sure would be:
a) a violation of naval treaty limitations
b) a declaration to the world that Hitler was "just kidding"
about heading east (Churchill succeeds Baldwin) and intended to follow in the footsteps of the last war in terms of U-Boat warfarec) stripping away a major portion of the metal firepower of the Heer, still leaving Poland vulnerable but the Luftwaffe and panzer force much weakened.
d) No invasion of Norway.
e) Germany loses Case: Yellow?
f) Doenitz's U-Boats return from their first patrols only to find the Union Jack flying over Wilhelmshaven
g) tough considering mass producing U-Boats to this level of force will require sucking huge amounts of strategic materials away from other more vital areas
h) Building SO many U-Boats SO early will mean that due to a relative lack of existing expertise Doenitz will be forced to build many more (for training purposes and because his shipwrights that early won't know any better) Mark I & Mark II U-Boats fit only for coastal work and the North Sea. IOW: Massed Block Obsolescence.
IOW, whatever he may have thought at the time, Doenitz really DIDN'T want a 300 U-Boat force in 1939.
Saphroneth
Banned
If 300 U-boats had magically materialized in 1939... possibly.
In the realities of things, no. Because the Brits would be warned earlier, because of the weaker Heer or Luftwaffle, because... and so on. Usertron covered most of them.
But let's explore the "possibly".
300 U-boats in 1939 doesn't mean 300 U-boats on patrol. In fact, even assuming the magic 300 are all the then-modern type sevens, they've still got to get out on patrol. In 1939 and early 1940, that pretty much means sailing either through the channel (Dover barrage mark 2 says hello) or around Britain to the north (a long, long way to go).
Once there, they're not going to be very efficient at sinkings, because this is 1939 and because the Wolf-pack doctrine isn't in place yet. There'll still be dozens of boats on patrol at any one time, though, so there'll be quite a high attrition rate.
Result?
Britain goes "oh, f*ck", and pours resources into anti-U-boat operations. The Fleet Air Arm strike Wilhelmshaven to attack the dozens of boats refuelling/refitting/repairing, destroyers by the dozens are diverted from fleet duties to ASW, and the convoy system is instituted double-quick. Aircraft go to coastal command from bomber command. The works, in other words - Britain reacts, fast.
In the realities of things, no. Because the Brits would be warned earlier, because of the weaker Heer or Luftwaffle, because... and so on. Usertron covered most of them.
But let's explore the "possibly".
300 U-boats in 1939 doesn't mean 300 U-boats on patrol. In fact, even assuming the magic 300 are all the then-modern type sevens, they've still got to get out on patrol. In 1939 and early 1940, that pretty much means sailing either through the channel (Dover barrage mark 2 says hello) or around Britain to the north (a long, long way to go).
Once there, they're not going to be very efficient at sinkings, because this is 1939 and because the Wolf-pack doctrine isn't in place yet. There'll still be dozens of boats on patrol at any one time, though, so there'll be quite a high attrition rate.
Result?
Britain goes "oh, f*ck", and pours resources into anti-U-boat operations. The Fleet Air Arm strike Wilhelmshaven to attack the dozens of boats refuelling/refitting/repairing, destroyers by the dozens are diverted from fleet duties to ASW, and the convoy system is instituted double-quick. Aircraft go to coastal command from bomber command. The works, in other words - Britain reacts, fast.
usertron2020
Donor
I had dismissed a "magic" 300 of Mark VIIs, on the grounds that the Germans simply wouldn't have the full knowhow yet (U-Boats take a year to construct, as I know you know), as well as the needed numbers of trained U-Boat personnel, not only for the boats themselves but for servicing.
Plus this would require a 100% stoppage of all naval construction the instant Hitler becomes Chancellor, laying the ships up, scrapping all but the newest construction to free up needed crews for the U-Boats, giving the Kriegsmarine highest priority for the Reich's industrial capacity, and-oh, hi Skippy!
Would not Admiralty Intelligence go "TILT!" the moment the Germans go into their madcap U-Boat construction race? [1] Or is this in the ASB magical awarding scenario?
1] That was the source of my reference to Churchill succeeding Baldwin (rather than Chamberlain), as Abdication Crisis or no, there would be no way ITTL that the Supreme Dove shoves aside the Supreme Hawk.
All the above, plus this has been discussed many times. Slightly more convincing arguments have been made with more credible and modest increases in the number, coupled with procuring the necessary raw materials by cutting not on tanks but on pointless prestige battleships. Still the arguments were just slightly more convincing, for all the reasons above.
I suggest sifting through the old threads.
I suggest sifting through the old threads.
Saphroneth
Banned
Yes, I'm aware what it would take to actually produce the subs and how there'd be reactions while they were still on the slips. But since the "why they can't be done" was already covered quite nicely, I thought I'd assume magic insta-subs and see what happened.
It's still not a magic bullet, even if it is a magic U-boat dispenser.
It's still not a magic bullet, even if it is a magic U-boat dispenser.
Also don't forget there are no U-Boat Pens, I see bombing raids over the ports and a mass carpet bombing is going to do a lot of damage.
And of course the crews. That many subs require a _lot_ of manpower, and not just anybody can stand the close confinement of a sub. I know for a fact I couldn't...
And of course the crews. That many subs require a _lot_ of manpower, and not just anybody can stand the close confinement of a sub. I know for a fact I couldn't...
what would be interesting is if the germans decide to buy a batch of dutch boats, the germans having a certain amount of long ranged O-19 class subs might get interesting results.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O_19-class_submarine
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O_19-class_submarine
Saphroneth
Banned
Yes, I'm sure both of them would make a major difference.
There'd need to be a lot of the boats built for them to be sellable - and the Dutch building dozens of long ranged submarines (presumably on promise of German purchase) would be quite the alarm-bell-ringer and bring up shades of WW1...
thaddeus
Donor
300 u-boats would bring about an earlier start to the war? as any actions by Germany would be seen in the context of the huge fleet under construction?
what they COULD have done was build the infrastructure to support 300 u-boats. Dithmarschen supply ships http://www.german-navy.de/kriegsmarine/ships/auxships/dithmarschen/history.html as well as some specially equipped auxiliary cruisers.
when war started the KM would be well positioned to maintain the u-boat fleet at sea for longer periods. (my scenario was huge fleet of flying boats to work in conjunction https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=326926 so even crews could be rotated)
plausible to get away with 100 u-boats? with subterfuge and stockpiling engines, etc in advance of final construction?
what they COULD have done was build the infrastructure to support 300 u-boats. Dithmarschen supply ships http://www.german-navy.de/kriegsmarine/ships/auxships/dithmarschen/history.html as well as some specially equipped auxiliary cruisers.
when war started the KM would be well positioned to maintain the u-boat fleet at sea for longer periods. (my scenario was huge fleet of flying boats to work in conjunction https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=326926 so even crews could be rotated)
plausible to get away with 100 u-boats? with subterfuge and stockpiling engines, etc in advance of final construction?
large numbers, not really, maybe you saw the reference in the article to the polish orzel class, these 2 boats were designed & built by the same dutch shipyards that built the O-19s. I could imagine the germans buying 10-20 plus a buildings license. Other option could be that it is a way for the germans to use their own shipyard space for other purposes. the biggest game change would be that it introduces long range subs to the germans much earlier.
usertron2020
Donor
You'd have to ratchet up massively British bombing tech and numbers as well, as well as sooner better radar and a (long-ranged!) RAF Fighter Command to protect them. Having an FAA free of the malignant influence of the Air Ministry would go a long way too (oh, hi Astrodragon!(1)), and avoid the RN's unwise idea of using CVs as ASW platforms.
1) Taranto'ing Wilhelmshaven would be better.
2) Over Goering's dead body. He had TOTAL control of air production. If it flew, it was because HE said so. Pretty much what the Kriegsmarine had for planes were either in Luftwaffe colors or had been built before the war (like the Fw-200).
3) Still runs up against the problem of too many Mark I/Mark II's, but that has the advantage of allowing the expansion of more U-Boats more rapidly later on. Assuming there's still a Nazi Germany left by then...
Would the Dutch be dumb enough to do all this?
thaddeus
Donor
2) Over Goering's dead body. He had TOTAL control of air production. If it flew, it was because HE said so. Pretty much what the Kriegsmarine had for planes were either in Luftwaffe colors or had been built before the war (like the Fw-200).
3) Still runs up against the problem of too many Mark I/Mark II's, but that has the advantage of allowing the expansion of more U-Boats more rapidly later on. Assuming there's still a Nazi Germany left by then...
Goering at one point hoped to be "minister of war," my idea was that he pushed flying boats onto the KM to gain control over their operations (or had replaced Hitler.) he would probably have killed off the capital ship program in favor of u-boats and smaller craft faster than anyone in Nazi hierarchy?
btw one fact about Dithmarschen class supply ships is that they were designed to tow disabled ships, if available in greater numbers possible they could have towed u-boats some part of sortie into Atlantic? giving them larger radius?
Towing at sea is sort of a emergency thing. Refueling at sea would be more efficient in the longer run.
usertron2020
Donor
It was Hitler's practice to give two men essentially the same job with different titles, letting the two of them "fight it out" for mastery. Darwinism only came naturally to the Nazis. See Goering vs. Todt. See Goering vs. Albert Speer.
The science for that was mostly in its infancy in 1939.
LordKalvert
Banned
How about if the Germans don't build the actual boats but secretly assemble them in sections so they can be assembled quickly in case of war?
Let's assume also that the money for the secret uboats comes from the surface fleet so the Germans don't build any of their battleships keeping the English in the dark about their naval plans.
Can this work?
Let's assume also that the money for the secret uboats comes from the surface fleet so the Germans don't build any of their battleships keeping the English in the dark about their naval plans.
Can this work?
thaddeus
Donor
thanks Carl sure you are correct but my comment assumed the Dithmarschen class, designed to support capital ships and in emergency tow them, would be able to tow a u-boat at greater speed than it could otherwise cruise due to their relatively light weight? and of course refuel u-boats already at sea also.
usertron assume you are referring to refueling at sea? the Germans had been doing that during the Spanish Civil War, great article about British experiences with their Dithmarschen class ship http://www.historicalrfa.org/rfa-stories/1111-one-stop-replenishment-is-history
not to get too far off topic, the point I was attempting to make was that with a supply/support network, which would not have warranted any British response before the war, +/- 100 u-boats would have the same effects as a 300 u-boat fleet with half or two/thirds rotating out of action.
To a point. The Germans did build subs in sections late in the war. This turned out not to be all that effective, as the sections often did not match perfectly. Some had to be rebuilt, or the subs were assembled after hurried modifications but they leaked at the seams, barring them from reaching the theoretical max depth.
Naturally in a pre-war situation they are less in a hurry/emergency, so they might do this better - but not for 300 of the things. For a reasonable number, possibly, for 300 subs, they'll have the same problems.
Not building any battleships certainly is a possibility, and it will free not jsut money but steel and trained manpower. Naturally, the enemy intelligence services will be rather curious about what the heck the Germans are doing with the steel they are producing.
Note that if the builders of these Lego subs want them to be operational on day one of the war, they have to train the crews. This will take something like a year of training operations at sea. It can be done, as historically, in the Baltic and under secrecy, but it's unlikely to go unnoticed, especially if we're talking about 300 boats that are suddenly assembled on M-365 (M = mobilization day) and placed in the few Kriegsmarine bases in the Baltic. They will be somewhat noticeable.