AHC :The Netherlands hold onto part of their empire .

Count of Crisco

Count of Crisco

With a POD that does not affect the rest of the world and assuming the Dutch hold everything they did 1930 .Have them hold onto parts of their empire in both the east and west Indies .The Netherlands Antilles do not count for the thread .
 

Falecius

Count of Crisco said:
With a POD that does not affect the rest of the world and assuming the Dutch hold everything they did 1930 .Have them hold onto parts of their empire in both the east and west Indies .The Netherlands Antilles do not count for the thread .
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I understand that Suriname pretty much wanted to remain within the Netherlands, but it was perceived as money sink in the metropole and more or less forced to become independent.
I suppose that it is conceivable to have a situation where the place remains Dutch if the Netherlands go for something like the French policy of integration of overseas holdings into actual bits of the country itself (which they've been doing recently for some of the former Netherlands Antilles, but perhaps is not possible in the seventies).
West New Guinea might also possibly remain as a Dutch possession after Indonesian independence (particularly if the Dutch are less prickly about the it) and it might be conceivably integrated into the Netherlands proper down on the road, although this seems less likely. More or less everything else in Indonesia very likely is bound to go (some minor islands had local elites supportive of association to the Netherlands as opposed to integration into Indonesia, as the latter looked a pretty centralized, mainly Javanese-run thing from the start, but the ultimate goal was still independence in my understanding; I don't know that any significant part of the Archipelago was ever even remotely considered as a possible future part of the Netherlands).

In both cases, I cannot think of a proper POD.

Note that a Dutch state that includes both West New Guinea and Suriname would have a very sizeable, and increasing, portion of its population, the vast majority of its land area and a huge amount of its natural resources outside Europe. This is possibly something that European political traditions of nation-statehood are ill-prepared to manage. While not impossible, this would require some serious redefinition of the concept of "Netherlands" in more inclusive terms.
 

avernite

Falecius said:
I understand that Suriname pretty much wanted to remain within the Netherlands, but it was perceived as money sink in the metropole and more or less forced to become independent.
I suppose that it is conceivable to have a situation where the place remains Dutch if the Netherlands go for something like the French policy of integration of overseas holdings into actual bits of the country itself (which they've been doing recently for some of the former Netherlands Antilles, but perhaps is not possible in the seventies).
West New Guinea might also possibly remain as a Dutch possession after Indonesian independence (particularly if the Dutch are less prickly about the it) and it might be conceivably integrated into the Netherlands proper down on the road, although this seems less likely. More or less everything else in Indonesia very likely is bound to go (some minor islands had local elites supportive of association to the Netherlands as opposed to integration into Indonesia, as the latter looked a pretty centralized, mainly Javanese-run thing from the start, but the ultimate goal was still independence in my understanding; I don't know that any significant part of the Archipelago was ever even remotely considered as a possible future part of the Netherlands).

In both cases, I cannot think of a proper POD.

Note that a Dutch state that includes both West New Guinea and Suriname would have a very sizeable, and increasing, portion of its population, the vast majority of its land area and a huge amount of its natural resources outside Europe. This is possibly something that European political traditions of nation-statehood are ill-prepared to manage. While not impossible, this would require some serious redefinition of the concept of "Netherlands" in more inclusive terms.
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Surinam has half a million inhabitants, so that shouldn't matter to much. West New Guinea has 4 million, which does start to matter compared to the 16-17 million Dutchmen (empty land never bothered anyone, see also Denmark/Greenland).

In fact, the Greenland model might sound more sensible for New Guinea.

Alternatively, some of the Moluccan islands, but I also have no easy way to get that (the locals, indeed, might want it over becoming Indonesian, but how do you convince Indonesia?).
 

Falecius

avernite said:
but how do you convince Indonesia?).
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You don't.
Assuming everything equal to about 1948, Netherlands would have to fight for it, committing actual armies. I doubt that the Dutch public in the fifties (I suppose) would have much stomach for that. Even New Guinea could be a stretch (as OTL shows).
Not to mention that, whatever preference the Moluccans and parts of Lesser Sundas may have had, Dutch presence would be intended to keep the Indonesians out, more than the Dutch in.
Now, with a POD in late 1945 where the Dutch immediately agree on Indonesian independence in principle, and begin negotiating, there could be room for a different settlement. It is going to be difficult, but perhaps the Indonesian side might be more prepared for concessions if they see the Dutch as honestly committed to independence from the start (as opposed to the historical Indonesian perception that they were trying to weaken and divide Indonesia and keep a foothold to mantain control).
 

avernite

Falecius said:
You don't.
Assuming everything equal to about 1948, Netherlands would have to fight for it, committing actual armies. I doubt that the Dutch public in the fifties (I suppose) would have much stomach for that. Even New Guinea could be a stretch (as OTL shows).
Not to mention that, whatever preference the Moluccans and parts of Lesser Sundas may have had, Dutch presence would be intended to keep the Indonesians out, more than the Dutch in.
Now, with a POD in late 1945 where the Dutch immediately agree on Indonesian independence in principle, and begin negotiating, there could be room for a different settlement. It is going to be difficult, but perhaps the Indonesian side might be more prepared for concessions if they see the Dutch as honestly committed to independence from the start (as opposed to the historical Indonesian perception that they were trying to weaken and divide Indonesia and keep a foothold to mantain control).
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The Netherlands DID commit to crushing the Indonesian independence movement. And were willing to commit more as the situation demanded - it's just that the USA was getting fed up by the idea of a quagmire soon to be supplied by Soviet aid, so they stepped in and told the Netherlands to get the hell out.

It's anyone's guess if the Soviets would have entered covertly, but with the historical US-NL relations there's no chance of that theory being tested.
Even if the Soviets don't enter, it's unclear if the Netherlands would have committed enough, eventually, to crush the Javans - but I think it's quite possible to shatter Indonesia into dozens of pieces and some of the smaller bits are bound to go with a more Dutch-related policy (if only as support against Java/Atjeh/whoever else is big).
 

wietze

indeed suriname was the same story, there is a persistent rumour about the elections being 'fixed' towards independence (with the usual disastrous results whenever the us pushes something like that).

what i could see happen is that some parts of the east indies stay dutch (new guinea, the moluccas and borneo) especially because before independence borneo had a fairly low javan content (after 1948 indonesia essentially became greater java). and that java is let go. sumatra might end up in 2 parts, with atjeh/ aceh going alone.

highest likelyhood: atjeh/ other half sumatra/ moluccas/ celebes in treaty with netherlands (something like a dominion) to counter javan politics, borneo/new guinea directly, java on itself.
although no doubt borneo would go on its own (through a dominion/treaty)later too
 
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Falecius

avernite said:
The Netherlands DID commit to crushing the Indonesian independence movement. And were willing to commit more as the situation demanded - it's just that the USA was getting fed up by the idea of a quagmire soon to be supplied by Soviet aid, so they stepped in and told the Netherlands to get the hell out.

It's anyone's guess if the Soviets would have entered covertly, but with the historical US-NL relations there's no chance of that theory being tested.
Even if the Soviets don't enter, it's unclear if the Netherlands would have committed enough, eventually, to crush the Javans - but I think it's quite possible to shatter Indonesia into dozens of pieces and some of the smaller bits are bound to go with a more Dutch-related policy (if only as support against Java/Atjeh/whoever else is big).
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That's why I said "after 1948", meaning after the Dutch already fought, and ultimately lost, the war for Indonesian Independence.
 

Falecius

wietze said:
indeed suriname was the same story, there is a persistent rumour about the elections being 'fixed' towards independence (with the usual disastrous results whenever the us pushes something like that).

what i could see happen is that some parts of the east indies stay dutch (new guinea, the moluccas and borneo) especially because before independence borneo had a fairly low javan content (after 1948 indonesia essentially became greater java). and that java is let go. sumatra might end up in 2 parts, with atjeh/ aceh going alone.

highest likelyhood: atjeh/ other half sumatra/ moluccas/ celebes in treaty with netherlands (something like a dominion) to counter javan politics, borneo/new guinea directly, java on itself.
although no doubt borneo would go on its own (through a dominion/treaty)later too
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I do suspect that many in the outer isles, particularly Sumatra (where Indonesian nationalism had a significant following) would be unhappy with this. So would be Java, of course. And ultimately, I believe that most of the fomer DEI will not remain part of the Netherlands even in this scenario.
 

wietze

sumatra will be a split island anyways, even today atjeh nationalism is sizeable.
the northern part (atjeh) always was quite independent
 

avernite

Falecius said:
That's why I said "after 1948", meaning after the Dutch already fought, and ultimately lost, the war for Indonesian Independence.
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Well, 48 makes no sense for that, since it's smack inbetween the two Dutch attempts to crush Indonesia - even if by 48 the desire to fight on was obviously declining.
 

Falecius

avernite said:
Well, 48 makes no sense for that, since it's smack inbetween the two Dutch attempts to crush Indonesia - even if by 48 the desire to fight on was obviously declining.
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Right, I should refresh my readings about the Indonesian war of Independence. (Which I probably won't, too much pressing things elsewhere),
 

Falecius

wietze said:
sumatra will be a split island anyways, even today atjeh nationalism is sizeable.
the northern part (atjeh) always was quite independent
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You are right about Aceh, but the rest would probably have a vocal group willing to be part of *Indonesia. Problem being that there "Indonesia" here is just Java, reducing its appeal I'd think. I am not sure that the Dutch ar going to able to get this much tough.
 
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