Three Little Fish: a short WW2 TL

IOTL U-56 a Type IIC submarine intercepted the HMS Nelson when Churchill and the leadership of the Admiralty was onboard in October 1939; it fired three 'fish' at the Nelson, but none worked and the ship continued on, leaving the Captain of U-56 severely distraught and required extended leave before returning to duty, becoming the 'man that almost killed Churchill'.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilhelm_Zahn

As commander of U-56 he was able to avoid detection by the destroyers surrounding HMS Nelson and came in close proximity to the British flagship, launching three torpedoes against her whilst she was carrying Winston Churchill and the high military command of the British Navy. Following that incident he became widely known as the "Man who almost killed Churchill" amongst the U-boat submariner corps.[3]

At 10 a.m. on 30 October 1939,[5][6] Zahn was commander of U-56 when he managed to avoid detection by the 10 destroyers and battle cruiser Hood,[7] protecting the Home Fleet west of the Orkneys and came within striking distance of HMS Nelson and Rodney.[5]

Unbeknownst to Zahn,[8] aboard the flagship HMS Nelson were First Lord of the Admiralty Winston Churchill,[6] Admiral of the Fleet Sir Charles Forbes, and admiral Sir Dudley Pound who was the First Sea Lord at the time.[9][10] The reason for the gathering was Winston Churchill's decision to convene a conference with the leadership of the British Navy because of the sinking disaster of HMS Royal Oak caused by a U-boat attack during which 833 servicemen died.[8]

In Zahn's own account of the events, three cruisers were heading straight toward his U-boat's position, making any attack by him almost impossible, when suddenly they veered by twenty to thirty degrees from their previous course opening the field of attack and bringing him into a direct line of fire with HMS Nelson and HMS Rodney.[5][8] Rodney was the lead ship of the convoy and Zahn decided to wait until it passed and concentrated his sights on the Nelson.[5] The U-boat came within the point-blank range of 800 metres of the ship and Zahn's chances of striking and sinking it were high.[6][10]

He fired three torpedoes, from U-56'​s three torpedo tubes,[12] toward the flagship. All three struck the hull of the Nelson but failed to explode, although the sound of the impact with Nelson'​s hull was picked up by the sonar operators of U-56.[8][9][10][13] The third torpedo subsequently exploded at sea without causing damage.[9] The incident has been described as the "most important non-sinking" of the conflict.[6] After the attack Zahn became widely known as the "Man who almost killed Churchill" amongst the U-boat submariner corps.[3]

After the attack, Zahn ordered the U-boat to descend to a deeper level to avoid depth charges since the destroyers had by now detected its presence. In the evening Zahn ordered U-56 to surface and subsequently sent a radio report to Berlin listing the targets in the group including HMS Rodney. The delay in the transmission of the information was caused by Zahn's depression caused by missing his target. Had this delay in Zahn's report not happened, the German command could have sent U-58, which was in the area at the time, to renew the attack on the British targets.[5]
Because of his failure to destroy the Nelson, Zahn became depressed and Karl Dönitz had felt obliged to relieve him of his U-56 command and sent him back to Germany to become an instructor.[13][14]

Later, in his memoirs, Dönitz called the failed attack by U-56 "an exceptionally serious failure" but did not blame Zahn whose daring, in the presence of the destroyers, he praised, saying "The commander who had delivered the attack with great daring when surrounded by twelve escorting destroyers, was so depressed by this failure, in which he was in no way to blame, that I felt compelled to withdraw him for the time being from active operations and employ him as an instructor at home".[13] In addition Dönitz had received reports from his men concerning problems with the defective G7e torpedoes that they were using and knew that the failures were caused by the faulty torpedoes.[12] Zahn eventually recovered and later that year was given command of U-69.[14]

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This marked the beginning of the Torpedo Crisis that afflicted the Uboats from 1939-40 until the problems were worked out and cost the Germans the opportunity to sink well over 100 ships.

What If?
But what if the torpedoes had worked and they tore into the Nelson? In this TL I'm going to lay out a short outline of events that people are free to critique and I may flesh out into something longer later.

This TL sees the Nelson hit by the torpedoes, but given its strong anti-torpedo defenses it survives the hits and 'just' lists badly as it takes on water. The Admiralty is evacuated as the ship is now a sitting duck, but in the haste to get the VIPs off the listing ship the older Churchill slips and falls, striking his head, develops a blood clot, and later dies of his injury. Zahn is unable to get a message off to the rest of the Uboats in the area in time and the ship and fleet escape further damage. The Nelson is laid up but repaired within 12 months.

Churchill's death is a bad blow to the morale of the nation and his presence will be sorely missed some 1940. The Norway operation continues as per OTL as it was pretty obvious what needed to happen there, Churchill or no, though he pretty much laid out the operation before October:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwegian_Campaign#Initial_plans
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Wilfred

OTL pretty much plays out with more German gloating over their hit on the Nelson and the Royal Navy being more willing to get aggressive to reclaim their honor. Practically this doesn't mean much difference to the course of the war. The Nelson isn't really missed as it hit a mine in late 1939 anyway and was laid for for repairs IOTL, so it pretty much is ready about the same time in August 1940 as it was IOTL.

The big difference is quite obvious though: Churchill is not around during the Norway debate to take over, leaving Halifax as the only PM option. Tradition is waved to allow a Lord to take the position, as it was planned to be IOTL, and the very apprehensive Halifax takes over just as the Germans are attacking France and it all falls apart. By June he attempts to reach out to Hitler via Mussolini to get terms, but that plan is foiled by Italy's DoW on the Allies (which all happened as per OTL).

Instead he follows his back up plan as France capitulates and reaches out via Sweden. Intent on only accepting terms that didn't cost unacceptable amounts of land, treasure, and prevent British rearmament, Halifax is pleasantly surprised by Hitler demanding virtually none of that, simply turning over Malta to Italy so they have a minor gain to trumpet (it was thought to be indefensible anyway in June, so its a minor concession), demanding that German treaties with the continental powers be recognized by Britain, Britain expels the governments in exile, and returns any German property and citizens (in addition to prisoner swaps). Leaving Halifax with everything he wanted he brings the terms to the War Cabinet and despite some disagreement initially he manages to get agreement in the end that its better to take mild terms now and get out before things get worse than to continue and see what happens then; its thought that the US will not bother helping and with the USSR supplying German the blockade is moot anyway.

So Britain and German reach a white peace by early July 1940. Hitler concludes severe deals with the occupied continentals and in the case of Norway the King goes into exile with some of the merchant fleet rather than return to a Quisling-led government. The merchant fleet that goes with him contracts with Britain and the King moves to Canada. The deal gives Germany access to the colonial markets of the occupied countries, transfers their gold stocks to Germany (worth over $3 Billion in 1940 dollars), makes them accept Reichsmarks as payment, sets up tariffs beneficial to trade with Germany, and sees German troops occupy the countries, but not base offensive weapons in them (military naval vessels, bombers).

International trade resumes with an appalled world who now has to deal with a Nazi dominated Europe, which cuts out a lot of business that they used to do with Europe (namely small and medium sized US businesses, big corporations still have business with Europe). The US tries to set up embargoes against Japan, but cannot find willing partners in Europe and the US dare not embargo trade with Europe as their economy has already taken a major hit by the war and Nazi victory, even as the Nazis spend on necessary commodities using European gold. Trade with Britain is resumed to keep her friendly to Europe and because Germany simply cannot supply all the coal and various other needs of the occupied countries. Japan in the meantime worried about a US embargo puts its money in more friendly British banks to keep access to it. They continue to trade with the Dutch and British, both of whom are interested in keeping the Japanese off their back.

In September the Tripartite Pact is signed, effectively ensuring Britain would stay out of the coming war with the Soviets that Hitler planned, as British entry would mean fighting both Italy and Japan in addition to Germany. Meanwhile Germany furiously stockpiled oil, raw materials, and purchased machine tools and other essentials abroad to complete her armament's schemes and prepare for Hitler ideological war with the USSR.

Stalin in the meantime was in a panic over German success and upon occupying the promised territories in the Baltic and Bukowina as per the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact he ordered planning for war with Germany, both defensive and offensive plans. It quickly became clear that as the massive expansion, reorganization, and modernization plans for the military were enacted, along with the new fortifications of the Molotov Line was conducted there just wasn't enough material to equip everyone that was being trained; in the event of war it would mean using all the old weapons that had been mothballed and never thrown away.

It also became clear that neither an offense or defense could be well conducted due to the massive changes underway, nevertheless MP 41 was worked out and Stalin banked on being able to buy off Hitler for another year until the reforms were completed. He kept up deliveries of promised materials, not questioning why the Germans weren't paying him as they bought abroad, allowed increasing overflights of German aircraft without engaging them, just lodging protests, and keeping only to secret mobilization of several hundred thousand troops to avoid provoking Hitler. Partly deluding himself into believing he was succeeding in keeping war at bay he accepted Hitler's personal notes about the build up not being a threat to Stalin and to contact him if his generals tried to start a conflict without Hitler's approval; this delusion was furthered by the warnings of war from spies, signals intercepts, and the British being somewhat discredited when their claimed start date, May 15th, came and went without war. Furthermore as Stalin anticipated the war would have a long ramp up, starting with border incidents and escalating into an invasion over the course of a week so that Hitler could claim he was attacked and acting defensively. Therefore planning for war and wanting to avoid it required soldiers to resist provocation at the border and when it was clear the invasion was gearing up for the Soviets to conduct an 'active defense', which meant counterattacking the enemy immediately rather than absorbing his blows; spoiling attacks would be used to disrupt German mobilization and the attacks of Panzer divisions, rather than letting them dictate the pace of the war. All of this was to combine disastrously when the invasion came in June.


That's the start, thoughts?

Barbarossa: the border battles

Using the info here:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=344856

By June 1941 Europe had been at peace for nearly a year, but it was clear another conflict was brewing. German success had resulted in a line up to join the Axis when it was formed, with Romania, Hungary, Yugoslavia, Italy, Bulgaria, and Slovakia joining, and Greece signing a separate treaty with Germany to remain in her good graces, while Finland stood aloof to keep the USSR happy. Despite rumbles in Yugoslavia there was no action to overthrow the government. All powers were basically required to keep sending Germany raw materials until it was ready to start paying them back. The defeated powers of Western Europe were in the same boat. Materially the Wehrmacht was in top form as peace had allowed for further training and maintenance, plus facility construction in the East, meaning that forces were at a high operational readiness for the invasion of the USSR.

The Luftwaffe had in the meanwhile phased out the Do17 and replaced it with He111s and Ju88s, using the older bomber to either fit out night fighter units in Germany to free up the Ju88Cs for operations in the East, or to replace Ju52s in training schools. That meant that the Luftwaffe's transport units had made good all of their losses from May 1940 and more, with over 900 operational Ju52 ready by 1941, as many men had been graduated early from training with their training Ju52 for transport duty.

In the West the French auto industry had been left alone and given contracts to supply the German army to supplement Germany's truck output and to provide spares for all the trucks pillaged from France in preparation for Barbarossa. Italy had been left in the dark about the invasion to maintain secrecy, but it and Spain, along with some Portuguese 'volunteers' would join in after the invasion started, along with Hungary once Soviet bombers accidentally hit Hungary during the confused early fighting. Romania and Slovakia were in it from the beginning.

In the East the Luftwaffe had massive expanded compared to May 1940 and was more than double its size in combat aircraft. The fighting would be carried out by huge air fleets, the 5th in Norway for the attack on Murmansk, the 1st with two air corps in the Baltic states and with major naval air support via their float planes, the 2nd for AG-Center in Belarus, the 4th with AG-south in Ukraine, and the 6th for operations in the Black Sea using the anti-shipping specialists in Fliegerkorps X. AG-North would have access to the expanded KG100 pathfinder specialists, now in full wing strength and made up of the best bomber crews in the Luftwaffe. They would be supported by a newly formed Bf110 ZG, but the 1st Air Fleet would lack a Stuka wing like the other major air fleets.

Rommel would head up a corps with AG-North too, tasked with securing the Baltic states; Hitler had high hopes for him, which resulted in his promotion from division to corps commander. Securing Estonia was given major importance due to the value of its shale oil industry, the value of the ports to logistics, and the important route to Leningrad. It was also hoped that a quick mobile push into Estonia would cut off and destroy the Soviet naval units based there.

Invasion
When the offensive began it came full force immediately, not in a slow build up like Stalin thought; though some work had been done to man defenses and disperse aircraft before the Germans attacked, much was still left undone with horrible consequences; all along the front well trained pilots using Knickebein radio guidance were able to hit Soviet airfields before light, catching the Soviets by total surprise. KG100 was particularly successful and was able to destroy hundreds of fighters around bases in Riga making the job of the LF 1 much easier in the coming days.

In Belarus the 3 full strength Stuka Wings, 1 Schlachtgruppe, and 3 full strength Destroyer Wings acted as close air support, shredding resistance where ever it was found, enabling the advance through the border areas to move forward at relatively low cost, while the bombers of 3 air corps interdicted Soviet logistics, supply depots, and road movement to a highly effective degree.

The weaker tactical support for AG-South showed in contrast, as it had only one Stuka wing and no Destroyer wings, but it was able to badly damage the Soviet armored concentrations that were forming to fight around Brody, aided by Ju88 and He111 dive and carpet bombing of massed armor formations. By the time Panzer units ran into Soviet MC in East Galicia they had been so badly disordered and savaged by air attack that they were able to sweep them up piecemeal at low cost and continue to roll on. Nevertheless it was taking heavier losses than in Belarus, especially among the Romanian component, which stalled badly in Bukowina and took heavy losses.

In the north the lack of Stukas didn't matter as much because its Destroyer Wing was able to render much the same service and the Soviets were far weaker than in Ukraine. The armor battle at Raseiniai was concluded in 2 days, largely because of the efforts of the Bf110s and Ju88s dive bombing and strafing the Soviet 3rd and 12th MC on the way to the battle allowing the light armor of Rheinhardt's XLI corps to envelop and destroy them piecemeal. It was a massive defeat, not least of which was aided by the unwieldy Soviet MC not having enough trucks for supply and being too large to effectively manage in a hostile air environment. Manstein's Panzer corps to the south ran unopposed to the Dvina where it seized a bridgehead and intact bridge with Brandenberger support, but was checked due to von Leeb being concerned about supply issues, infantry support, and concerns about Soviet units in the army's rear areas not yet swept up. Rommel to the North ran straight to Riga, brushing aside Soviet infantry to secure the Soviet airbase west of the city and crossings over the Dvina with the help of the 7th Flieger Division, which made a combat drop East of the river and nearly captured the command of the Soviet Northwest Front in the city; an uprising aided their liberation of the city, but the command staff was flown out before it could be captured. Rommel captured the city and bridges intact, cutting off the Soviet 8th army's retreat; he too was stopped on the river for the same reasons as Manstein. At Jakobstadt Rheinhardt followed up on its success at Raseiniai by seizing bridges over the river Dvina with the help of the 1st Luftsturm Regiment detached from the 7th Flieger; this was the unit of Eben Emael fame, but scaled up. It was supported after its drop by the 22nd air landing division, which itself was stripped of a regiment to support the 7th Flieger at Riga to make up for the 1st regiment dropping at Jakobstadt. In the aftermath of the success the 7th Flieger and 22nd Division would return their swapped regiments and would fight as regular foot divisions for rest the campaign.

Left with the Dvina being breached in 3 places and the 8th and 11th armies being trapped south of the river and effectively being destroyed the Soviet Northwest Front tried to launch a counterattack with the 21st MC against Manstein, but once again air power and the skill of the Panzer corps wrecked the attacker, forcing a retreat. The route before AG-North was now opened up due to the virtual destruction of the Soviet border armies, though the Soviet 27th and 22nd armies were moving to man the Stalin line on the Velikaya river in the wake of their failed counterattacks, while Estonia was defended by whomever had been garrisoning it in June and the survivors of the border battles that filtered East of the Dvina before the Germans seized the major crossings or found smaller crossings thereafter. Effectively it was lightly held and faced the Estonia Forest Brothers in their rear, which made a defense virtually impossible.

Following the only major airborne drop of the campaign being completed and the decision to use the airborne divisions as regular foot infantry for the rest of the campaign AG-North had over 200 Ju52s for supply, with about 65% operational by July. They had brought in some supplies to each of the Panzer corps as the infantry moved up and with them followed converted rail lines. Rommel was chomping at the bit to charge into Estonia and was the first let off the leash to run to Tallinn and then on to Narwa, given the lion's share of the air supply assets, while the rest of the 4th Panzer Group was held more to the pace of the infantry and rail conversion. They too though were allowed to advance beyond the Dvina by July 2nd and Rheinhardt moved on to Pskov, while Manstein was ordered to cover the flank against the Soviet 22nd army by moving to Oposhka while the German 16th army moved up behind him.

In Black Sea the X. Fliegerkorps operated against the Black Sea Fleet with heavy success, mining both Sevastopol and Odessa heavily, while bombing the ships of the fleet in harbor and on the move. The heavy surface ships were mostly put out of action by August and attempts to reinforce and supply Odessa by sea were stopped by aerial attacks; the Germans were sooner reinforced starting in mid-July by Italian anti-shipping air units as Mussolini was eager to participate in the ideological struggle against Communism. This would make the later siege of Odessa far easier and bring it to a much speedier conclusion, plus heavily aid in the attacks on Sevastopol starting in October, as supplies and reinforcements could not be moved in and naval units did not survive to render fire support. The 6th Air Fleet would also render some air support to AG-South directly along the coast, especially during the Odessa fight.

In all the border battles ended heavily in the favor of the Axis, as they had the air power to smash up Soviet units too badly to fight a coordinated campaign; Stalin was left despondent after the fall of Minsk and retreated to his Dacha, but was coaxed out by his staff to continue the fight. The war was just beginning and the Soviet government was not about to give up without a brutal fight.

I have to say that I really like the PoD, it is plausible, while still small. But I srill have the feeling that Stalin would have been a bit more suspicious in this situation, making surprise a bit harder to achieve. But then again, he did kindof trust Hitler. And he made some more preparations.

Raunchel said:

I have to say that I really like the PoD, it is plausible, while still small. But I srill have the feeling that Stalin would have been a bit more suspicious in this situation, making surprise a bit harder to achieve. But then again, he did kindof trust Hitler. And he made some more preparations.

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There was a book we discussed on here a while back that explored the ways that Stalin was fooled and it really seemed to me that Stalin was looking for any excuse to believe he could push the invasion off until 1942; the lack of invasion on May 15th as predicted was very much the major reason he dismissed any further talk of attack in 1941 because everything was pointing to that as the start date and yet it didn't come off. Now ITTL there are major features missing, like the lack of invasion of Yugoslavia that Stalin used to dismiss the build up in the East as preparation for the Balkan operations, plus of course the war with the British. We can say that the deception operations like Harpune still happen, just with the claim that Hitler is planning on launching a surprise attack in the British now that they are lulled into a false sense of security:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Harpune

IOTL Hitler also wrote a letter to Stalin explaining the build up, which Stalin totally bought and something like that happens ITTL too, which I mentioned in the OP.

Of course there is an argument that Stalin wouldn't buy it and operate completely different ITTL given that the war wasn't on, but there is also the argument that he would too, which I'm running with here. Someone is welcome to take this POD and run an opposite scenario where Stalin acts differently in the run up to Barbarossa.

Very intriguing ALT Barabarossa ops... Interesting so far.

kclcmdr said:

Very intriguing ALT Barabarossa ops... Interesting so far.

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Just wait...it's going to get very boring

Interesting - but why bother with Finmark to Murmansk, horrible terrain. Transport to Helsinki (or Oslo), and disembark in Tallinn - once secured by Rommel.

merlin said:

Interesting - but why bother with Finmark to Murmansk, horrible terrain. Transport to Helsinki (or Oslo), and disembark in Tallinn - once secured by Rommel.

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OTL Hitler totally ignored the advice he was getting from the officers that were there that it made no sense to go for Murmansk when isolating it via cutting the railway was just as effective and that they didn't have the strength to do both at the same time, well Hitler wanted to protect the critical nickel mines in North Finland and he did not listen (according to my Osprey Campaign book). So nothing changes IOTL especially given that the Germans have more resources to throw at the problem.

Army Group North

Rommel jumped off East of Riga on July 2nd heading for Tartu between lake Peipus and lake Virts up the highway toward Tallinn, while the 7th Flieger and 18th army would move up West of Lake Virts toward Tallinn, while the 22nd division would detach from Rheinhardt's corps to follow Rommel. Facing little resistance after trapping most of the 8th army South of the Dvina, Rommel rolled over what Soviet troops were found, who were eager to avoid retribution at the hands of the Estonia guerrillas in the surrounding forests; the Estonians were thrilled to see the Germans move in and liberate them and they proved to be an invaluable aid to Rommel as he pushed ahead; they provided rear area security, translators, guides, and labor to help with rail conversion and completely understood the time pressures that the Germans were under and worked themselves very hard to aid in any way possible.

In his haste Rommel consistently outran supply, which even the allotted Ju52s had trouble keeping up with, as they also had to help the rest of the 4th Panzer Group and do reconfiguration work to turn the para JU52s into transports. Parachutes were even collected from the FJs to provide more for cargo drops. Luckily ammunition expenditures were limited in the push to Tallinn, so fuel made up the most important of the air lifted supplies, while the soldiers found the Estonians willing to provide food and water. Rommel ended up splitting his forces, sending a motorized division to Narwa with the Forest Brothers, and continuing on Tallinn by July 10th with Estonian volunteers, his Panzer division, and two motorized regiments. The shock of the collapse of the front and the rapid advance of Rommel had the Soviets unprepared to evacuate what retreating forces reached Tallinn on the 12th of July and Soviet forces were overrun, including naval forces after an uprising in the city and a rapid Panzer thrust into the city itself. Leaving his two regiments and the Estonians behind, Rommel rapidly turned, using captured Soviets supplies, and moved his Panzer division to Narwa where his motorized division and the Forest Brothers waited, immobilized by lack of supply. Soon Rommel's Panzer division joined them with Ju52 support. Reduced to two corps Rommel alone could not breach the Luga Line, but moving up the other side of Lake Peipus saw Reinhardt's Panzers rendezvous with his corps.

6th Panzer division led Rheinhardt's forces, who had breached Luga with the aid of a Brandenberger company at Kingisepp on the 13th and Sabsk on the 14th; he had to divert troops south to help Manstein, whose 8th Panzer division was caught in a trap by counterattacking Soviet forces and was mauled, but the Luftwaffe and reinforcements resolved the situation and resulted in badly smashed Soviet forces. Both Manstein and Rheinhardt had to limit their advance to the support of the 16th army as best as possible, but had breached the Stalin Line after a quick fight, Manstein having more of a fight than Rheinhardt, and both pushed on, Rheinhardt toward Leningrad with the bulk of the mobile forces, Manstein eastward to cover the flank.

Rommel's forces then presented Rheinhardt's breach with the reserves that were needed as troops were drawn further southeast to help Manstein, even if Rommel would have to wait until late July for his detached regiments to catch up with the corps, finally released by the 18th army occupying Estonia; with them would come the 7th Flieger division, whose highly trained troops would be invaluable in the fighting north of the Luga and the the 22nd division who would help screen the flanks. Later the 18th army would join them.

For now Rommel's two divisions and the rest of Rheinhardt's corps pushed north of the Luga, with the help of an entire air corps tasked with helping them overcome the fanatical resistance of the scratch Soviet forces in their way; the weakness of the Soviet defensive forces was apparent due to the loss of the 8th and 11th armies early in the campaign and the loss of the troops at Tallin*. The defenses at Luga were largely breached by the 15th, letting the armored division, the 6th Panzer, under General Erhard Raus, an Austrian commander new to the division, lead the way on the rush to the city. Airpower smashed any attempt to stop him or organize a counterattack on the flanks and by the 17th of July his division had entered the suburbs of Leningrad. The ability of the Germans to move into Leningrad was heavily aided by the entry of the Finns into the war and their distracting of the Soviet 23rd army north of the city, who were badly outnumbered by the Finns. Fighting was still fierce though, as militia and disorganized reservists who were still forming into divisions fought from partially finished defenses in the city.

Supply was exclusively carried out via airdrop or any relatively dry field where the Ju52s could land, whose airbases were now moved up to Estonia as rail conversion made opened up new forward staging areas and cut turn around time heavily. The Luftwaffe dominated skies making their supply runs safe from fighter interference. Kronstadt was being heavily carpet bombed by the Heinkels KG100, leaving the Destroyers and Ju88s to hit Soviet ground troops around Leningrad. Pushing in from the South the concentrated armored forces of Hoepner’s armored group pushed up to the Neva river in the heart of the city by the 19th, fighting the remnants of resistance, while the rest of Rheinhardt’s corps cleared the city south of the river. Heavy bombing of Soviet troops forming East of the city badly disrupted their efforts and despite supply difficulties and sabotage of the city’s infrastructure, the German forces were solidifying their hold. To the South Manstein was able to start grinding north toward the city with 1st Air Fleet’s other corps support, which smashed up defenses and Soviet armor in the area, but it was hard going due to the terrain and deep dug outs immune to air attack. Infantry of the 16th army assisted his push and kept the flanks covered near Novgorod.

By July 25th the city had been largely cleared of resistance and Soviet troops started to pull back across the Volkhov river to the East to form up new armies to renew their offensive to retake the city. To the North the Soviet 23rd army had been trapped and was being squeezed between Finns and Germans, with attempts to evacuate troops via Ladoga Lake interdicted from the air. Keeping a large area west of Volkhov the Soviets dug in, expecting reinforcements and husbanding what was left of their forces by the end of July, despite Stalin’s apoplectic rage over the loss of Lenin’s city and home of the revolution. Zhukov was dispatched to organize an offensive to retake the city, but upon arrival discovered the sorry state of the forces available after the disaster that had befallen the Northwest and Northern Fronts.

As the 18th army moved in in August to relieve the 4th Panzer Group around Leningrad Hitler began planning to remove most of the Group from AG-North to send south to assist AG-Center against Moscow, leaving only Rhienhardts Panzer corps as armor support for AG-North. It would serve to relieve some of the supply burden on the Army Group and aid in the big remaining task, the capture of Moscow. They wouldn’t head south until September though; in the meantime 1st Air Fleet was to be left intact to support AG-North and finish off Kronstadt, plus any remaining pockets of resistance west of the Volkhov, having helped to clear the Baltic Islands in August and open Tallinn to shipping from Germany. Kronstadt would fall by the end of September, scuttling all of its warships first, and sabotage of the port in Leningrad severely reduced its capacity, while mines made would require months to remove before supply could be brought directly into the city.

In the meantime much of the population was marched out south through Ingermannland, as there was no way to feed them and most of the city infrastructure had been sabotaged in the meantime. Mass evacuations had reduced numbers in the city, but the Germans march out over 1 million people by the end of 1941, while in the city itself many starved over the course of the year due to lack of ability to feed them when city food stocks ran out and lack of rail supply; German troops were prioritized first, while Soviet PoWs were mostly worked to death repairing the sabotage inflicted, as there was little ability to feed them either. In the Baltics the Einsatzgruppen followed in the wake of the German army and began their murder mission, slaughtering hundreds of thousands of Jews in the region. They would be involved in the removal of population from Leningrad and horrible massacres of civilians to ease road congestion in the forced relocations. In the wake of victory the German military brought with it Nazi death squads and their plans of extermination; anyone that was happy to be liberated by the Germans quickly grew to regret that feeling.
*IOTL the 8th and 11th armies, including those successfully pulled out of Estonia, were critical in defending the path to Leningrad; ITTL their absence makes the offensive far easier to overcome, especially with Rommel’s corps available ITTL and an extra air corps that wasn’t present IOTL.

This is excellent thus far.

wiking said:

OTL Hitler totally ignored the advice he was getting from the officers that were there that it made no sense to go for Murmansk when isolating it via cutting the railway was just as effective and that they didn't have the strength to do both at the same time, well Hitler wanted to protect the critical nickel mines in North Finland and he did not listen (according to my Osprey Campaign book). So nothing changes IOTL especially given that the Germans have more resources to throw at the problem.

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Didn't Hitler want Finland occupying up to White Sea?

(btw is Murmansk a year round port? have seen mentions that it was NOT but my understanding it was open year round)

my scenario is the Bismarck and Tirpitz based there.

thaddeus said:

Didn't Hitler want Finland occupying up to White Sea?

(btw is Murmansk a year round port? have seen mentions that it was NOT but my understanding it was open year round)

my scenario is the Bismarck and Tirpitz based there.

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The Finns wanted all of Karelia themselves. I should have added that the German fleet is sortieing in the Baltics without the fighting in the West and against Murmansk.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murmansk#Transportation
Apparently it is ice free year round; don't expect any major German surface ships there though they have no utility there.

Army Group South

This section of the front is going to largely be the same as IOTL because the only additional forces are a wing of Stukas and He 111s, while the rest of the air fleet is at full strength and rested because of no Balkan campaign. The fundamentals of the campaign are pretty much otherwise there, though the extra airpower and operational rates enabled a lot more damage to Soviet forces for less German losses to achieve roughly the same thing.

Instead I'll focus on what's different, which is on the Romanian/Black Sea Front.

Operation Munich proved to be a brutal fight right off the bat, as the Soviet Southern Front was much more prepared for the fight than most any other and had rough terrain to defend. The Romanian army lacked the abilities of their big ally and even with the introduction of nominal Italian forces the presence of only one smaller German army, the 11th, with them forced the Romanians to do all the heavy lifting. The fighting was mostly resolved in the month of July and carried the Romanian army to the fortifications of Odessa as Hitler granted Antonescu the strip of Ukraine beyond Bukowina in return for their continued help.

The Siege of Odessa was to be an even more brutal fight for the Romanians, but was heavily aided by the German X. Fliegerkorps interdicting Black Sea supply and reinforcement efforts. Though night time was largely free from aerial harassment, during the day Luftwaffe, Romanian, and later Italian aircraft bombed anything that moved, while conducting heavy mining efforts of Odessa and Sevastopol. The mines did more than anything to shut down shipping during 'off' hours for the Soviets and the lack of reinforcements and supplies, plus the lack of ability to evacuate civilians unable to contribute to the defense badly hurt. Even though they were inflicting heavy losses to the Romanians grinding forward in WW1 style trench battles, the Soviet defenders were depleting stocks rapidly and were finally forced to capitulate in mid-September after nearly 6 weeks of siege.

As in Bukowina, Odessa saw mass murders of Jews by the Romanian army, which was all too happy to conduct its own Holocaust as it advanced. Cleansed of 'undesireables' Odessa would become part of Romania as the capital of Transnistria and would result in the demobilization of Romanian forces to help incorporate this area into the rest of the country.

With the fall of Soviet positions West of the Dniepr Axis forces moved into Crimea in late September, shattering resistance as they cleared the peninsula. Having accomplished the task of smashing Soviet naval power west of Crimea X. Fliegerkorps with its Romanian and Italian support, all grouped now in the 6th Air Fleet turned on Sevastopol. The Stukas of the air fleet were rebased behind the advancing German 11th army to attack ground targets, while level bombers hit the port and Bf110s attacked any residual shipping trying to bring supplies or reinforcements into Sevastopol. The surface fleet had largely been damaged or sunk in the port early in the war, with mines having bottled them up, preventing escape to safer areas; it gave the Romanian fleet, such that it was, freedom of action in interdicting Odessa, but now also helping against Sevastopol. Soviet submarines were very dangerous though, which kept shipping beyond the coast and Axis surface warships away from the port. Many had rebased along the Caucasian coast, but some still operated out of Sevastopol.

As German forces started to close in on Sevastopol in late September naval infantry were formed out of the stricken warships in the harbor, while the civilian population was put to work building defenses. The lack of manpower to man them was a serious problem and civilians were eventually armed to much up the deficit. Axis air power made reinforcing the port extremely hazardous, as there was an entire air fleet dedicated to interdicting the port. Even nighttime movement of ships was deemed too dangerous due to mining efforts and the loss of multiple transports forced the cancellation of further supply efforts. The heavy use of air power then tamped down much of the defenders' ability to resist, as fighters swept Soviet aircraft from the sky, bombers suppressed the port and inner defenses, while Stukas and Bf110s provided CAS to 11th army units moving against the city. Von Manstein had been transferred south to the 11th army and now was heading up efforts to take the port since October. Despite the weak lines of supply into Crimea the heavy use of CAS enabled German troops to work their way forward through the suppressed defenses of Sevastopol and by mid-November the city had fallen. With it was lost the majority of the Black Seas Fleet, but for some small surface units and submarines that were able to make it out. Soviet relief efforts forming at Taman opposite Kerch were cancelled in November when a naval assault on Crimea was deemed pointless.

Having cleared the peninsula of resistance by December the German 11th army moved north to aid in the advance on Rostov, while the Romanian 3rd army sat in defense of Kerch while to the West Italian and other Axis shipping was now freed up to move through the Dardannelles to make supply runs into Odessa to help ease the rail logistics burden; eventually they would be able to bring supplies into Sevastopol, but the port would take months to clear and repair. The 6th air fleet was rebased to Crimea where it would help reduce the remaining Soviet naval presence in the East Black Sea, specifically by targeting the major remaining port of Novorossiysk and helping support AG-South along the Sea of Azov and near Rostov.

In Ukraine to the north Soviet positions were collapsing after the battle of Kiev had destroyed the bulk of Soviet forces and the campaign seemed to culminate with the pinning of remaining forces along the sea of Azov, leading to their destruction and German forces being forced forward to Rostov, capturing it after a bitter battle. Held by the 11th army and supported by the 1st Panzer army and elements of the 6th and 4th air fleets the city was held against heavy Soviet counter attacks to retake it, despite major supply troubles that were eased by Ju52 supply. By the close of the campaign Ukraine was in Axis hands, though hold on it was tenuous in the face of logistics issues and Soviet continued resistance, none of which was anticipated to be nearly as heavy as it had been; even by winter the Soviets, who were planned to have been overcome by August, still fought bitterly in defense of their homeland. The major campaign was still being fought to the north and where the ultimate outcome would be decided.

The Periphery

Off the main fronts the was still action going on that had critical influence on the war.

Finland
In Finland with its entry in late June it took until July to get actively involved in the ground combat on a large scale. To the North the Germans launched their offensive at Murmansk in late June, surprising the Soviets, but quickly bogging down due to the lack of infrastructure for supply, tough wilderness terrain, and climate in the Arctic Circle. To make matters worse the Soviets reinforced and dug in, actually outnumbering the attackers. They would bash away until September before finally calling off the offensive and losing over 10,000 men in the process. Another offensive further South aimed at cutting the Murmansk railroad made much better progress thanks to Finnish participation, while the Germans, unprepared for the conditions, similarly floundered as they had further north.

Ultimately with the success of the offensive at Leningrad concerns over getting too involved in the German war effort abated, because it was increasingly felt that Germany would win and the dream of gaining all of Karelia would be achieved, so Finnish forces proceeded with their offensive as part of Arctic Fox, the offensive aimed at reaching the white sea. This offensive was successful when in September resources and manpower freed up from the Leningrad front appeared and enabled them to overwhelm Soviet defenses. This would ultimately spell doom for Murmansk, as cut off from supply and ability to get imports in the city became useless.

For the rest of the world moving supplies into the Murmansk prior to this was considered too dangerous given German efforts in the region and ultimately a poor idea because supply to the Soviets would likely be captured by the Germans when they won. Conventional wisdom around the world was that the Soviets were finished given the losses they had sustained by August and the fall of Leningrad and severing of the Murmansk railway only compounded that perception.

Further South with the fall of Leningrad and the shifting of resources to other sectors upon reclaiming their 1939 border with the Leningrad Oblast the Finns continued to push out in September against Belomorsk to establish an Eastern boundary anchored on a river line, which was ultimately achieved by the end of the year, by which time Murmansk had surrendered due to lack of supply, leaving Karelia totally under Finnish control. As the Finns asserted their rule over this new territory German troops were pulled out of the area to be rehabilitated after hard combat. The Finns held their new lines independent of the Germans and were effectively now no longer active participants in the war.

Iran
The British were deeply concerned about the German move into Russia, but given the Axis Pact, their incomplete rearmament plans, distant relationship with the US, and trade with Europe direct entry or even obvious supply of the Soviets was out of the discussion. Efforts were made to aid the Soviets somewhat though, both via Canada selling goods via the Pacific route and via Iran. In the case of Iran the British were deeply concerned about the Shah's pro-German stance and hiring of German firms to work on infrastructure in his country, so in the wake of the failed Iraqi Rebellion in May 1941 they had troops on Iran's border and made demands on the Shah to expel German contractors and fall in with British demands; when Barbarossa started and the Shah demurred a joint Soviet-British decision was reached to invade the country and replace the Shah with someone more friendly so that supply lines could be set up. The Shah, realizing what was coming informed German nationals to flee to neutral Turkey to avoid the British invasion, which they all managed to do before the joint Anglo-Soviet invasion took over the country; the Iranian military had been badly undermined by pro-British generals and general lack of preparedness to fight, so the 'war' was little more than an occupation.

Of course upon occupation of the country it was discovered that despite the work the Germans had been doing in country on infrastructure, rail lines were woefully inadequate and Britain did not have the resources to upgrade them. The Soviets did their best with the areas under their control, but Iran would ultimately only be able to provide a trickle of supplies. Still, through that Britain sold the Soviets non-military goods to avoid the fallout from providing British weapons that would appear at the front. Food, fuel, and machine tools were the big purchases instead. Nevertheless Hitler was still furious at British actions, but could do little about it during his invasion.

Japan
Barbarossa put Japan in a difficult position, as it now felt empowered to get away with things while the world was distracted, causing a full occupation of French Indochina; this triggered further sanctions from the US, which while Japan's finances were out of reach still meant the major market for Japan was closed off and resulted in her hard currency stocks rapidly dwindling. As it depended now on Dutch oil and other raw materials from the DEI something needed to be done; after failed negotiations with the Dutch for credit they appealed to the Germans to turn over the DEI, which was rebuffed as unacceptable. Japan was quite furious that German violated the spirit of the Axis Pact by refusing to concede Asia to Japan as had been acknowledged in the Pact and began considering invasion and renunciation of the deal. The consequences of this were obvious though, as Japan was certain that would mean war with the US, who was increasingly hostile to Japanese expansion and it would guarantee that Germany would not help in that war. Britain too would probably need to be fought in the event of the seizure of the DEI as they would also be threatened by Japanese invasion of another colonial power's assets just nearby; they already were very skittish about the Japanese actions in Indochina. Plus trade with Germany was highly necessary given the loss of trade with just about everyone else due to embargoes and currency losses and German ability to make things Japan was unable to.

As Japan debated its future actions based on its declining assets, Germany became increasingly aware of Japan's thirst for resources as it tried to pressure Japan into joining the invasion of the USSR. Japan had been extremely hesitant to do so given her poor track record fighting the Soviets, commitments in China, and the lack of serious resource gains in doing so. Still, Germany was aware of how critical the Siberian supply routes were becoming to the USSR and wanted those interdicted, plus have some Soviet troops drawn off of the European fronts. To keep Japan in the alliance and from doing something stupid in Asia (from the German perspective) they approached Japan again in September about joining the war in return for DEI resources on credit, plus technology transfers, and some shipments for free of high tech German industrial equipment.

Intrigued, Japan sussed out the German offer and ultimately agreed as the Soviet front in Siberia was denuded of resources to fight in Europe.
http://www.operationbarbarossa.net/the-siberian-divisions-and-the-battle-for-moscow-in-1941-42/
Marshaling their resources the Japanese assembling IJN troops for attacks on Vladivostok, while the Kwantung army would do the invasion of Siberia itself, but given the lateness in the year to launch a major invasion of Siberia Japan was more interested in keeping its penetration minor and focus on shutting down Pacific supply to the USSR and let the Germans deal with the bulk of the Soviet army.

Attacking in Late October the IJN quickly cut off Vladivostok, surprising the Soviets, and seizing the north Sakhalin island, while the IJA moved to cut off Vladivostok from the landside and the rest of the Kwantung army pushed toward Lake Baikal, screening Outer Mongolia in the process. Soviet forces resisted fiercely, but stripped of their best units, men, and equipment, not to mention supplies, the Soviets buckled under the onslaught. Vladivostok fell by December and the Japanese secured their 1941 objectives by securing defensible borders by winter along mountain ranges East of Lake Baikal. Having nothing to counterattack with Soviet forces in Mongolia held their positions and the rest withdrew into Siberia.

It was yet another disaster for the Soviets to lose their Eastern supply routes and face yet another enemy. The US and Britain were of course dismayed by the entry of Japan into the war, but neither was willing to declare war over it and just prepared their own militaries for the fallout and finally began to increase joint planning in the Pacific and Atlantic. Talk of starting humanitarian aid to the Soviets via Iran advanced, but was contingent on the Soviets continuing to resist into 1942.

Liberation

Have the Germans tried to form any 'liberation' governments in the Baltics/White Russia/Ukraine yet?

traveller76 said:

Have the Germans tried to form any 'liberation' governments in the Baltics/White Russia/Ukraine yet?

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No, they historically did not and would have no incentive to do so here with extra victories and more forces. In fact IOTL they disarmed anti-Soviet resistance movements in the Baltics after they invaded and threw the UPA leadership in Ukraine into concentration camps when they tried to work with the German in 1941 and murdered a fair number of them; IOTL they later released them and tried to work with them, but the UPA ended up fighting them from 1943 on.

As far as China, the Burma road remaining open and the Flying Tigers fully engaged in China vs OTL, as well as having the Soviets as a full fledged ally, and a USA who can focus their whole lend lease to China, things may get messy there for Japan.

If I were Roosevelt, once Japan invaded the Soviet Union, I would just seize the oil producing areas of NEI, sell it to congress as enforcement of the embargo and I bet he could get a way with it.

I would also just seize any German merchants found trolling this side of the Atlantic.

And if France is really just a German client state I would also seize any French possessions in the Caribbean and Pacific Islands.

Catspoke said:

As far as China, the Burma road remaining open and the Flying Tigers fully engaged in China vs OTL, as well as having the Soviets as a full fledged ally, and a USA who can focus their whole lend lease to China, things may get messy there for Japan.

If I were Roosevelt, once Japan invaded the Soviet Union, I would just seize the oil producing areas of NEI, sell it to congress as enforcement of the embargo and I bet he could get a way with it.

I would also just seize any German merchants found trolling this side of the Atlantic.

And if France is really just a German client state I would also seize any French possessions in the Caribbean and Pacific Islands.

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I assuming NEI is supposed to be DEI. No, the US wasn't about to authorize aggressive war, not when it would mean war with the entire Axis and probably Europe. Certainly not in 1941, the US military is not ready for it either, nor would want to station the necessary naval units that far forward; there is a reason they withdrew the fleet from the Philippines.

The Burma road isn't exactly bringing in a lot of supplies either in 1941, but the AVG is operating and the British are allowing supplies in, it's just that capacity is limited.

Also the Soviets don't have anything to really give to China at this point, they are just desperate to survive the onslaught on both sides; if they survive Iran isn't going to bring in that much, IOTL it only handled about 25% of supplies despite billions in investments in infrastructure by the Allies in 1940 dollars. At this point the Soviets are not allied to anyone.

Great and a very creative POD. I see why you put up that Leningrad post the other day.

wiking said:

I assuming NEI is supposed to be DEI. No, the US wasn't about to authorize aggressive war, not when it would mean war with the entire Axis and probably Europe. Certainly not in 1941, the US military is not ready for it either, nor would want to station the necessary naval units that far forward; there is a reason they withdrew the fleet from the Philippines.

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You are probably right about 1941. But in such a world Roosevelt could get away with what ever military spending he wants and without Lend Lease to Britain it ramps up even quicker. And if France and the Netherlands are German client states I would do anything overt or covert to cut off the oil (sabotage, supporting local independence movements, a free Dutch movement). Japan hating would be too easy politically. Probably by February 1942, the USA could really push hard.

It will be interesting to see if the Soviets can survive into 1942 though.