I have been interested in the Battle of Midway for many years, and I cannot help re-fighting it in my head, with particular attention on whether the Japanese could have won EVEN with the severe handicap of having their codes broken and their "mail being read" by USA Intelligence Officers.
One thing stands out, the fact that the Japanese Carrier force assigned to Midway was missing the two carriers (Shokaku and Zuikakau) that had been part of the original Pearl Harbor Strike....as we know, the Battle of Coral Sea resulted in Shokaku and Zuikaku being unavailable for Midway, and this proved a HUGE factor.....many "what if" questions center around what would have happened if these two carriers (each with their complement of 72 planes) had been part of the midway Task force....or even if just one of them were part of Nagumo's strike force (conceivably, Zuikaku could have been available with a reduced air complement of about 65 if they had combined the remnants of planes and pilots of both Shokaku and Zuikaku after Coral Sea!)
WHAT IF....the Aleutians Diversion that took place the week before Midway never happened? What if Yamamoto had not divided his forces but kept them focused on Midway, and the ships alloted to the Aleutians attack were instead part of the Midway operation? Consider this: The two Carriers assigned to the Aleutians, Junyo and Ryujo both were small ("light"), but each had around 45-48 total Aircraft......IF they had been with Nagumo along with Akagi, Kaga, Soryu and Hiryu, I think the battle of Midway turns out differently.
Suppose the japanese Combat Air Patrol has an additional 15-20 zeros aloft when the American Airstrikes hit the Japanese Fleet? We know the Japananes CAP totally decimated everything the Americans threw at them right up until the Dive Bombers arrived, and it was the singular LACK of additional Zeros in the Air allowing the Dive Bombers to come in almost unmolested that killed Japan's fortunes in this battle. With the two additional carriers being able to add to the CAP, it is conceivable that the Dive Bombers too would have at least been moderately scattered and the attack disrupted, to the point where the damage they inflict would not nearly have been as devastating......in fact even just a handful of zeros (say 4-5) flying into a American Dive Bomber formation of 20-25 planes would have been a real problem for them.
But suppose the Americans still nail two of the original four carriers (Kaga was a sitting duck, regardless, due to her size and the fact its decks and hangars were particularly scattered with munitions, as were Akagi's....Hiryu and Soryu did not have this problem.) Suppose Hiryu, Soryu Survive, commanded by the much more competent and aggressive Admiral Yamaguchi who takes over for the rattled and wounded Nagumo, and now he also has Junyo and Ryujo's planes as well.....he fights back and sinks Yorktown first, and then its his four carriers versus the Hornet and Enterprise and their severely depleted air groups.....I think Japan wins that scenario easily!
What does everyone else think? Would adding the Aleutians' forces have made a difference, and if so, how much of a difference?
One thing stands out, the fact that the Japanese Carrier force assigned to Midway was missing the two carriers (Shokaku and Zuikakau) that had been part of the original Pearl Harbor Strike....as we know, the Battle of Coral Sea resulted in Shokaku and Zuikaku being unavailable for Midway, and this proved a HUGE factor.....many "what if" questions center around what would have happened if these two carriers (each with their complement of 72 planes) had been part of the midway Task force....or even if just one of them were part of Nagumo's strike force (conceivably, Zuikaku could have been available with a reduced air complement of about 65 if they had combined the remnants of planes and pilots of both Shokaku and Zuikaku after Coral Sea!)
WHAT IF....the Aleutians Diversion that took place the week before Midway never happened? What if Yamamoto had not divided his forces but kept them focused on Midway, and the ships alloted to the Aleutians attack were instead part of the Midway operation? Consider this: The two Carriers assigned to the Aleutians, Junyo and Ryujo both were small ("light"), but each had around 45-48 total Aircraft......IF they had been with Nagumo along with Akagi, Kaga, Soryu and Hiryu, I think the battle of Midway turns out differently.
Suppose the japanese Combat Air Patrol has an additional 15-20 zeros aloft when the American Airstrikes hit the Japanese Fleet? We know the Japananes CAP totally decimated everything the Americans threw at them right up until the Dive Bombers arrived, and it was the singular LACK of additional Zeros in the Air allowing the Dive Bombers to come in almost unmolested that killed Japan's fortunes in this battle. With the two additional carriers being able to add to the CAP, it is conceivable that the Dive Bombers too would have at least been moderately scattered and the attack disrupted, to the point where the damage they inflict would not nearly have been as devastating......in fact even just a handful of zeros (say 4-5) flying into a American Dive Bomber formation of 20-25 planes would have been a real problem for them.
But suppose the Americans still nail two of the original four carriers (Kaga was a sitting duck, regardless, due to her size and the fact its decks and hangars were particularly scattered with munitions, as were Akagi's....Hiryu and Soryu did not have this problem.) Suppose Hiryu, Soryu Survive, commanded by the much more competent and aggressive Admiral Yamaguchi who takes over for the rattled and wounded Nagumo, and now he also has Junyo and Ryujo's planes as well.....he fights back and sinks Yorktown first, and then its his four carriers versus the Hornet and Enterprise and their severely depleted air groups.....I think Japan wins that scenario easily!
What does everyone else think? Would adding the Aleutians' forces have made a difference, and if so, how much of a difference?