Den Xiaoping not gains the power timeline

[Iñaki]

1988. The year of the Iran War. Part 2 The War (24 april-20 july).

2.1 The first week.

"All the lies that you find
All the truth you see
Rise and fall
But I know what´s mine

Here we lie
Looking up to
Empty sky
And the promises we find"

(From song "The Gift" of the INXS -1993-, in TTL the most similar song to the Gift is "Scares on my Face" of INXS -1994-)

"After ending the mission and looking to all the destruction that we had caused, I say to my partner "poor bastards, it is a fu+++ng little Pearl Harbour""

From an extract to an interview of a A-6 pilot that participated in the attacks against the iranian naval base of Bandar Beheshti.

(Images and more images of the war: people fleeing to the refuges in Tehran, Isfahan and other iranian cities; the wrecks of Bandar Behesthi naval base, surely one of the most impacting images of the war, with the core of the iranian navy destroyed, the burning remains of a foxtrot submarine and a Riga destroyer could be seen in one photo with a lot of bodies on the water, iranian sailors and marines lying dead as toy soldiers in a bathtub; the interview in Vremya news in Moscow studios to Vladmir Astakhov, "soviet volunteer pilot" of a MIG-25 based in Mehrabad airbase, near Tehran, that shot down an US F-18 and damaged another during the first day of the war, and participated in the last victorious moment of the iranians when he and others MIG-25 got to ambush a B-52 force in 16 june near Mashad in the northeast of Iran shooting down 2 B-52 and damaging another before all the MIG force were wiped out by the F-15 escort; the dead and burned bodies of iranian tankists of a battalion of T-72 of the 87th Armoured Division that was attacked by an squadron of A-10 near Basra -the battalion entirely wiped out by the A-10-; crowds in a lot of arab cities burning US flags; demonstrations in the US in support of US soldiers, sailors, pilots and marines fighting in the war and in some cases violent quarrel between pacifists and manifestants in support of the war in Iran; the sank remains of the USS McClusky in Mina Salman harbour in Bahrein after a suicidal boat attack in 11 may and so on, so on ....)

When the historians of nowdays look at the Iranian war of april-july 1988 they say that of the three wars fighted by the US during the "Seven Years of Crisis" (Iran 1988, Quemoy and Matsu 1989 and Yugoslavia 1994-95) the Iranian war, although no doubt strategically very important to stop the possibility of the dominion of the Persian Gulf by the Islamic Republic of Iran that was allied with the Soviet Union and the Chinese People´s Republic, was militarly the war with more clear possibilities of winning for the USA, then in 1988 nobody thought that in the future in 1989 the USA would confront the naval power of China and that in 1994-95 the NATO would confront the Soviet Union in a limited war in Yugoslavia and in that year of 1988 with the ghost of Vietnam in the minds of all the americans nothing was so clear in the Iran war as today we could think that it was.

The first 48 hours of war saw the most hard fought air battles since the attacks over Hanoi in Vietnam war, with the principal battles fought in the Tehran area in the named air battles of Mehrabad and Doshan Tapeh and in Bandar Behesthi naval base, a total of 36 allied aircraft were shot down during the first 48 hours of combat (+ 42 allied aircraft damaged), of which 24 in the Tehran area and 5 in Bandar Behesthi battle (3 during the first wawe of attacks and 2 in the second wawe, all them A-6), also from the first time since the Vietnam war US aircrafts were shot down or damaged in air combat: in Tehran 2 F-18 shot down + damaged: 4 F-18, 3 B-52, 2 F-111 and one F-15; in Bandar Behesthi 1 A-6 damaged by air combat (the performance of the EA-6 Prowler jamming the iranian radars and the superb actuation of the F-14 Tomcat escort practically wiped out the entire force of MIG-25 and MIG-23 situated in the nearby air base, a total of 12 MIG-25 and 36 MIG-23 destroyed in the ground or in air combat with the F-14 making a shocking show of wonderful performance with their Phoenix missiles) and in Tabriz 1 F-15 damaged in air combat.

But if the iranians could say that had shot down or damaged an interesting quantity of allied aircraft it was only at the price of trying massive sorties of the Iranian Air Force that practically wiped out the 1/2 of the iranian fighters, the iranian air force massive sorties were the principal cause of the high losses during the first 48 hours not only because the direct shot downs, also because the presence of enemy fighters obligated the allied attacking aircraft to elude this presence and being caught because this in antiaircraft ambushes (also in some cases there were errors where the escort trying to attack the iranian fighters caused letting alone the bombing aircraft being caught these without escort in an authentic rain of SAM and well coordinated AA fire -an interesting book by Osprey in TTL is "battles over Tehran: The US Air force missions over the iranian capital"),

But if the losses during the first 48 hours were relatively high for the US (of the 36 aircraft shot down 32 were americans + 4 british Tornados), the outcome of the first 48 hours were a great victory: practically all the Iranian navy had been wiped out (with the exception of some Osas and Grishas) and the naval bases of Bandar-e Abbas, Bushehr, Khorramshahr, Khark Island, Bandar-e Khomeini and Bandar Beheshti were totally destroyed, in the air the 1/2 of the iranian air force had been wiped out and the air bases of Tabriz, Bandar-e Abbas, Hamadan (Shahroki Air Base), Dezful (Vahdati Air Base), Shiraz, Bushehr, Ahvaz, Esfahan (Khatami Air Base), and Bandar Beheshti had been destroyed or extremely heavy damaged

Only the air bases of Mehrabad and Doshan Tapeh remains relatively light damaged, and because the dense antiaircraft defense in the area of Tehran (that included some SA-10 systems sent by the soviets to prove his performance before the allied attack began -and truly the SA-10 proved to be an authentic "son of a bi+++" (in US pilots words) with the MIG-25 Foxbat combination named by US pilots that fought over Tehran the MIG-25 "fuc+++"-) was so dense and that the air force of MIG-25 in Tehran air bases was relatively intact it was decided to use in the attacks against Tehran from the third day the most part of the times the B-1 and F-117 aircrafst and Tomahawk missiles.

Also the principal radar instalations and communications centers of the army, air force and navy were destroyed during the first two days, were also neutralized the principal suspected plants of chemical weapons and the Tehran Nuclear research center was destroyed, and the Busher nuclear central being neutralized in an operation that combined special forces with air attacks.

The US Navy performs from the first day of the hostilites the tasks to destroy or neutralize all the Surface-Surface installations of Silkworm missiles in the iranian coasts bringing attacks from Faw to Queshm island in an absolute showing of fire power from part of all the naval units in the Gulf, while these operations of neutralization of silkworm sites were performed by the navy, special teams of Seals and Rangers occupied the Abu Musa island and the Sirri island during the first day of operations defeating quickly the pashdaran garrisons of those two island (12 wounded in the two operations).

The first 48 hours seemed that effectively had ended in a great victory and even some optimistics thought that Iran could plead in only few days a cease-fire, but these optimistics were soon overrunned by the fact that like the japanese in the World War II, the iranians were decided to stand and die and this decision were reinforced by public discourses of Soviet and chinese leaders that they would help sending weapons to Iran "in this time that the warmonger Reagan want a war, the Soviet People is with our ally Iran, we don´t fall in the imperialist provocations that pretend to begin a Third World War but I announced that we and the Chinese people will continue to provide weapons and military assistance in this fight against the warmongerism of the Reagan presidency" (from a discourse of Victor Grishin in 25 april 1988), soon also the political situation in the arab countries, the Middle East and Persian Gulf showed the volatile situation with Hamas attacks against Israel in the Occupied Territories, and Hezbollah offensives against israelians and christians positions supported in some cases by Syria (during the Iran War a little war of nerves with air combats over Lebanon and even Syria were fought between the syrian air force and the israeli air force) and violent demonstrations in Qatar and Bahrein from the shiite population against the rulers of these two countries and the presence of the US and british forces.

Since the third day the air operations against the iranian army and pashdaran positions in the front line were performed by the A-10 and Apache copters mainly, with the total wiping out of the iranian army air force in Esfahan, the A-10 and Apache only had to confront the antiaircraft fire that proved from the SA-6 and SA-8 and the ZSU-23 and SA-7 and SA-14 were one of the most dense of the history of the war, in fact the A-10 pilots were the most stressed of all the Iran war a lot of them performing more than the "duty and the logic could seem normal", if one aircraf and his pilot merits a great hommage in this war it could be the tripulations of the A-10, during the five first days of operations for the A-10 a total of 10 A-10 were shot down and 12 damaged (2 of them were so heavy damaged that would be written off later) and 1 Apache shot down and 3 damaged, but effectively ending any possibility of an iranian offensive against iraqui positions, the attempts of the 88 and 87 armored iranian divisions to probe the iraqui positions west of Basra endend in a quick flee after 2 entire armored battalions were wiped out by the only action of the A-10 (6 A-10 shot down and 7 damaged in these actions)

After the first 48 hours of war it was clear that the air superiority was in the hand of the allies and also that the iranian troops could not have air support after the complete wipe out of his army air force contingent in Esfahan, the next 5 days of the first week were concentrated in neutralize the air defences along the country effectively destroying 75-80 % of the fixed antiaircraft instalations and attacking the nerves of the communications and command centers, it was clear that after the 48 first hours Iran had lost the air war (in the next five days a total of 18 allied aircraft were shot down and 20 damaged, if we discount the losses of the A-10, only 8 allied aircraf -of which 3 british tornados- were shot down over the Iran territory in missions against the AA sites and the Communication-Command Centers, compared with the 36 aircraf losses during the first 48 hours clearly showed that Iran had lost the air war during the first week) another thing was the land war, the iraquis had to control first the kurdish rebellion to begin operations in the south against the iranians, so the war would be long, very long...

[Communist Wizard]

Very nice! I like the fact that the U.S.S.R. is in a much better position, along with China (POWER TO THE COMMUNISTS!). You better not make the SU/PRC fall... I also like those hints you gave about a market in the Pro-Soviet blocs. However, try to have better spelling...

[pieman3141]

GO PRC/SU! I like cheering for the underdogs... And they had a cooler-sounding anthem than the Americans, or a bunch of Western nations.

[Iñaki]

It seems that I have some fans

Originally posted by Communist Wizard
Very nice! I like the fact that the U.S.S.R. is in a much better position, along with China (POWER TO THE COMMUNISTS!). You better not make the SU/PRC fall... I also like those hints you gave about a market in the Pro-Soviet blocs. However, try to have better spelling...

As I say to bluestraggler I will try to resume this timeline this week (have some posts giving support also has help me to decide this )

Well I prefer to not anticipate next installments, but I could say that at 2006 in TTL the Soviet-Chinese Alliance continues alive.

Respect to the better spelling I am a lot of sorry but the english sometimes is difficult to me a lot (I am from Spain) , sometimes I need to have at hand a castillian(spanish)-english dictionary to help me in writing the TLs, well I will try to better the spelling although (these are the moments in which I would want to live in an ATL where the Armada defeats the English -so AH board in castillian (spanish) language- ).

[Iñaki]

After hard work and Christmas holydays I could find some time for returning to board and try to continue Den Xiaoping not gains the power timeline.

After this last interlude, I will try to center in continuing the Den Xiaoping not gains the power timeline beginning first in making all the countries chronology from 1976 to 2006,also there is some more timelines that I began, it is possible that make some new new installments of this timelines (and that I try to make some sketchy timeline about some ideas that I had in mind) but the priority will be Den Xiaoping timeline.

So:

Countries chronology (sept 1976-december 2006).

1. Afghanistan.

1.1 From the death of Mao until the death of Andropov (sept. 1976-july 1987)

1978. President Daud is deposed and dead in a coup leaded by Mohammad Taraki. The constitution is abolished. Afghanistan and Soviet Union sign a Friendship and Cooperation Treaty. Hard fighting between government troops and muslim rebels in the border with Pakistan.

1979. US ambassador Adolph Dubs is murdered by islamic rebels. Taraki is deposed and dead in a coup d´etat. The Revolutionary Council appoints Hafizullah Amin as president. Amin is deposed and dead in a second coup. 30000 soviet soldiers invade Afghanistan. Babrak Karmal appointed president by the soviets.

1980. Soviet and government troops continue to fighting against afghan guerrillas. Afghanistan is expelled of Islamic States Conference.

1981. More than 2,5 millions of afghans have run of the war to Pakistan and Iran. United States impose sanctions against Afghanistan.

1982. China and Soviet Union begin conversations to have a common position about Afghanistan.

1983. More than 100000 soviet soldiers fight against afghan guerrillas.

1984. Afghanistan, Soviet Union and China agrees to have a joint politic against Afghan guerrillas and the "imperialism" in Afghanistan.

1986. April: US administration begins to supply afghan rebels with Stinger missiles, increasing losses of soviet and afghan airforces.
November: caused by the rise of diplomatic relations of Iran with Soviet Union and China and the soviet help to Lybia, an ally of Iran, during the Lybian Crisis of april, Iran and Soviet Union agrees that afghan shiites enter in the afghan government in exhange of a neutral policy of Iran and afghan shiites in the war.

1987. January: Border incidents between afghan troops and pakistan troops.
April: Afghan guerrillas fail in their offensive against Kandahar. Soviet Union acknowledges high aircraft losses caused by the stingers.
May: Firefight between pakistani airforce and soviet and afghan airforces near Quetta: 1 Pakistani F-16, 2 Afghan Mig-23 and 1 Soviet An-12 are shot down in the combats.
July: Afghan president Babrak Karmal attends Andropov funerals.

1.2 From the election of Viktor Grishin until his death (july 1987-november 1994)

october 1987. Babrak Karmal attends an special meeting with soviet leader Viktor Grishin about the situation of Afghanistan and the need of searching coalition solutions with the shia muslims of the Hezb-e-Wahdat, there is some tensions within the afghan PDPA about this question amid rumours of internal fighting in the PDPA about the prospect of a Government Coalition with the chiies. [1]
1988. January 16. Babrak Karmal is replaced as president of Afganistan by Mohamed Najibullah, the chief of the Secret Police (the KHAD), Najibullah is considered by Moscow as a more capable man to make possible a coalition government with the shia muslims of Hezb-e-Wahdat.

February. Fierce combats confronts soviet and afghan troops against the muslim guerrillas. The second battle of Kandahar, although the city is briefly occupied by the guerrillas, ends in a defeat for the mujahidin.

24 april-20 july the Iran War: the soviet support to Iran against the Allied Coalition (United States, United Kingdom and Irak) permits the acceleration of the conversations between shia muslims and the PDPA, a final coalition government pact between the Hezb-e-Wahdat and the afghan government is signed the 12 june.

October. Third battle of Kandahar ends in another defeat for the muyahidin, one of the most fierce battles of the Afghanistan war, the intervention of armored reinforcements commanded by coronel Abdul Rashid Dostum and the air transporting as shock force of the 104rd Airborne Division commanded by general Lebed [2] permits to the soviet and afghan garrison defeats ultimately the muyahidin onslaught.

1989. According not official sources from Pakistan and US officials, the muyahidin suffers now a crisis because the heavy casualties of the battles of Kandahar and also a division because some groups accuses others to have caused this defeat because not commiting sufficient troops to the fight.

22-28 june. The new iranian foreign minister Mohammed Jatami visits Kabul and other cities meeting with the president Mohammed Najibullah and with the leader of the Hezb-e-Wahdat Abdul Ali Mazari, the three makes a joint declaration in which demands the muyahidin to begin conversations with the Afghan government to cease the civil war.

October 1989. As part of the progressive division of powers between the two parts of the Coalition government, the chiite Mohammad Karim Khalili is named new foreign minister of Afghanistan.

1990. A partial retreat of 10000 soviet troops is announced by the Politburo.

July. After the events in Poland (the crushing of the polish rebellion by the soviet tanks) the Helms-Broyhill Act to provide support to the forces fighting against dictatorial regimes is quickly passed by the US Congress, with this act for example the muyahidin guerrillas will get more US financiation and supplyment of weapons.[3]

1991-92. One of the most intense period of fighting of the Afghan War, the different factions of the Afghan resistance have arrived to a pact for a Unified Council of Resistance (in great part thanks to the labour of the Special Assistant for Intelligence, Political and Military affairs Richard Clarke to the then secretary of State Bill Richardson) and launch coordinated offensives, in some moments february-march 1992 the muyahidin arrives to control all the southeastern part of Afghanistan with the exception of Kandahar. Finally but the offensives are defeated not only caused by new tactics and weapons like the mi-28 Havoc and the Mi-31 harpy also because the effective collaboration between Afghan government, soviet commanders and Hazara militias, all this combined with the eternal division of the afghan resistance makes possible the final defeat of these offensives and also the dissolution of the Unified Council of Resistance.

1993.

The implementation of the Clarke Doctrine means the beginning of trying to erode soviet positions more than direct attacks to very strong positions, this means in part the change in Afghanistan to tactics to make possible outcomes in long term more than large guerrilla ofensives that erode more the guerrilla than the soviet-afghan government-hazara alliance.

The division of the Afghan guerrilla (Clarke says of the Afghan factions and guerrilla that they are as the balkan nations in the beginning of the XX century: so disposed to fight between themself that against the common enemy) and each time more strong position of the Afghan government makes possible the failure of the Clarke Doctrine in Afghanistan (a doctrine that tends to elude direct confrontantions with the Soviet bloc, instead is based in erode the soviet positions in distant places to make possible with little losses for the US the defeat of prosoviet governments around the world and the consequent loss of soviet prestige, is based in used politics and diplomacy to make the opposition forces acts together (more than use only an opposition force and make it prevails over the others) combined with the supplies of US weapons and use of intelligence based in Sigint, Elint and Imint: the most spectacular success of this doctrine was the fall of the Communist regimes of Ethiopia and Somalia during 1993-94)

August 22. According to soviet and afghan military sources, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar one of the principal muyahidin leaders dies fighting the soviet forces during an operation personally commanded by the new chief of the soviet forces in Afghanistan, Aleksandr Lebed, the operation (named Red Aurora [april-september 1993]) intended in destroy the bases of the movement Hezb-e Islami Afghanistan succeeds in great part with the killing of Hekmatyar, leader of the Hezb-e Islami, and the destruction of great part of the infrastructure of this muyahidin movement.[4]

1.3 From the election of Egor Ligachev until his death (november 1994-may 2002)


1995. May. Beginning of a joint iranian-afghan-soviet project to promote the afghan economy, new infrastructures will be made (principally better and new roads), technical help will be offered to the farmers and the security of the border with Iran will be strengthen with joint patrols to stop bandits and smugglers, also Afghanistan obtains a substantial economic help through the system of “brother credits” of the EASC (Economic Association of Socialist Countries) [5].

1996. The iranian foreign minister Ali Junesi signs a serie of accords to strengthen the cultural and economic relations between Afghanistan and Iran.

1998. April-june Muyahidin troops of Jamiat-i-Islam commanded by Ahmad Shah Masud (nicknamed “ the Afghan Lion”) occupies Khost and Ghazni, of Ghazni are ousted by a counteroffensive of afghan troops, but soviet and afghan troops not succeeds in retaking Khost where muyahidin troops resist well supplied with pakistani weapons of the military regime of general Jehangir Karamat.

August. After some frontier clashes between pakistani troops and afghan troops the tension rises between the two countries, this tension but is reduced when US secretary of State Richard Clarke and Soviet foreign minister Aleksandr Bessmertnykh visits Islamabad the 2 september and after a month and a half of conversation between Clarke, Bessmertnykh, Karamat, the leader of Jamiat-e-Islami Burhanuddin Rabbani and the afghan foreign minister Sultan Ali Keshtmand [6] a truce is accorded in the Afghan War [7] between Jamiat-e-Islam and the Afghan government (this naturally means that Khost and surrounding area are under control of the Jamiat).

October. The PDPA (People´s Democratic Party of Afghanistan) is renamed Democratic Revolutionary Party of Afghanistan.

November. The Soviet Minister of Defense Aleksandr Lebed [8] announces that Soviet Union reduces the number of troops in Afghnistan to let only in that country 50000 troops.

1999. March. Is officially announced that after more than one year of conversations the promonarchist party Mahaz-e Milli-e Islami has accorded to enter in the coalition government of Afghanistan. [9]

August. The Soviet Politburo announces that the 50000 soviet troops presents in the country will be reduced to a limit of 20000 troops (this is made in the same official announcement that indicates that the Soviet Union has accepted an invitation of the Pope John XXIV to begin conversations with the United States for made possible an end to the Cold War)

15 february 2000. The death of Mohammad Najibullah in an air accident causes an internal crisis within the Coalition Government, the discussions about who succeeds Najibullah causes an internal strife that suddenly is converted in a military fighting when troops of the KHAD commanded by general Shahnawaz Tanai [10] attempts to seize the power from the provisional president Sultan Ali Keshtmand. The coup attempt is defeated when troops of the Defense Minister Abdul Rashid Dostum intervenes in the fighting and routs the KHAD troops.

1 march 2000. After a brief meeting between the different parts of the government coalition is accorded that the minister of Defense Abdul Rashid Dostum will be the new president of Afghanistan.

July. An official report from United Nations indicates than the quality of life of the afghan people has risen continously from 1995 and that with the exception of the south the rest of the country lives an each time more stable peace.

2001. 16 june. The signing of the Treaty of Stockolm between the soviet leader Egor Ligachev and the US president John McCain marks the official end of the Cold War [11], this have clear effects in accelerate the solution of the Afghan War that in this moments has in the Jamiat-e-Islami the principal muyahidin movement (appart of the islamic radicals of the Hezb-e-Islami) that still continues the war now against a Coalition Government of Pashtun promonarchics, shia muslims hazara and each time less comunist and more neutralist DRPA.

November. The foreign minister of Soviet Union Mikhail Fradov and the US secretary of State Olympia Snowe accords in the Conversations of Geneva for develop the treaty of Stockolm the total retreat of the soviet troops of Afghanistan in exchange the United States accord to stop the supply of weapons to the remaining Afghan guerrillas and the neutralization of the country (this “finlandization” is supported by all the formations of the Afghan government).

1.4 From the election of Aleksandr Lebed until nowadays (may 2002-)

June 2002. The last soviet troops exits from Afghanistan. The country is declared officially neutral by the government respect to the politics of the two principal military blocs.

August 2002. the Jamiat-e-Islami accords to begin conversation for entering in the new government coalition.

2-6 november. The chinese foreign minister Bo Xilai visits Afghanistan to support the peace process that could end definitively the Afghan War [12].

2003. 4 april. The Jamiat-e-Islami annonunces his will to enter in the coalition Government.

June. The United Nations Secretary-General Gro Harlem Brundtland visits Kabul, Herat and Kandahar in a tour to express the support of the United Nations to the Afghan government.

October. A car bomb in Kandahar wounds the president of Afghanistan Dostum, the action is reivindicated by the Hezb-e-Islam of Bashir Khan Baghlani (during the year guerrilla actions from this radical movement has increased along the south of Afghanistan)

16 december. Is officially announced that in february of 2004 will be made a Loya Jirga with the participation of the Jamiat-e-Islami to develops the final estructure of the Afghan government after the Jamiat has expressed his acceptance of the conditions for enter in the Afghan Government.

2004. February. the meeting of the Loya Jirga accords a new constitution for Afghanistan, the change of the name to Republic of Afghanistan, the constitution accords the respect to all the religions and the laics, the respect to the regions and different ethnic groups, the constitution is in fact a mixture between a laic and a moderate muslim constitution, the sharia will be aplied only in cases that there is blanks in the laws, although the laws will try to respect the traditions and history of Afghanistan (this is in part refered to the paper of the Sharia and traditional laws in the history of Afghanistan), if one thing is clear is the neutralistic and nationalist tone of the constitution: Afghanistan is considered a neutral state with a National Assembly in bicameral format (one representing all the afghan citizens, the other representing the different regions: the constitution also divides Afghanistan in regions and provinces with the division in regions based in historic,ethnic and religious divisions), the National Assembly is the only corps that could give the acceptance for international treaties that could involve limits to the sovereign of Afghanistan (e.g.: military treaties, economic alliances...)

June-august 2004. Afghanistan supports publicily the government of Pakistan during the brief civil war caused by the attempt of radical islamic groups like the Harakat ul-Ansar and a part of the army and the secret services leaded by the general Mahmood Ahmed to overthrow the military government of Jehangir Karamat.
In fact Afghan troops collaborate with the pakistan government in seizing the last stronghold of the rebels in Quetta.

2005.

January: the United Nations in coordination with the United States, Soviet Union, China, the European Community, the EASC and the AIN (Association of Iberoamerican Nations) [13] accords the creation of the United Nations Programme for the reconstruction of Afghanistan.

April: It is announced that the first afghan elections to elect new Afghan president and national assembly will be hold in may 2006.

October: The New Afghan Army organization is presented by the Defense Minister Ahmad Massoud: based in integrating the guerrilla formations with the Old Afghan army, it will be a process that last several years until the integration ends.

2006.

May: Elected as president is the moderate Abdul Ahad Karzai of the pashtun formation which names Dostum as vicepresident.

In the new National Assembly, the most voted party is the Jamiat-e-Islami although a coalition of the Hazara Party, the National Party of Afghanistan (a coalition of different moderates pasthun parties leaded by Abdul Ahad Karzai and Pir Sibghatullah Mojaddedi being the principal party the Mahaz-e Milli-e Islami) and the DRPA –that gets a majority in Kabul- is at the end who controls the National Assembly.

July: After the inauguration of the National Assembly, the new president of Afghanistan takes possesion with a discourse of reconciliation, international neutrality and respect to all the citizens of Afghanistan.

August-October: the first great operation of the New Afghan Army happens when afghan troops helps to stop an internal strife in the Kandahar city between partidaries and opponents of the governor of Kandahar Abdul Rasul Sayyaf. [14]




[1] These tensions ever existed within the PDPA (later DRPA) until suddenly explode dramatically in 2000.
[2] Lebed was made a hero of Soviet Union because his performance and valiant attitude during this battle.
[3]. Initially president Gary Hart and the democrat majority in the Congress wanted to reform some aspects of the Act (which was popular as a way to check the Soviet-chinese agressive policies showed in the Iran War in 1988 and the Quemoy and Matsu War of 1989) but the events of Poland made possible that a coalition of conservative democrats and republicans decided to pass the Act almost without changes.
[4].Four days later, an official announcement of theHezb-e Islami, acknowledged the death of Hekmatyar and his replacement by Bashir Khan Baghlani as leader of the movement.
[5]. From february 1995 the succesor of the COMECON.
[6]. From june 1995 Mohammad Karim Khalili was replaced by Sultan Ali Keshtmand as foreign minister, Khalili would be now the minister of Infrastructures. Keshtmand as Khalili is a hazara although while Khalili is a militant of the Hezb-e-Wahdat, Keshtmand is a member of the socialist PDPA (from october 1998 with the new name Hezb-e Demokratik-e Milli, HDM or in english version Democratic Revolutionary Party of Afghanistan DRPA)
[7]. With the success of the Coalition Government between the PDPA and the Hezb-e-Wahdat more factions begin to try to join the coalition principally the promonarchists (these factions begin to realize that Soviet Union and an important part of the PDPA are disposed to make a great coalition with other parties apart of the shia muslims to finlandize or cambodiaize Afghanistan –Cambodia in TTL is a neutral nation ruled by Norodom Chakrapong after the accords of the 1980´s between China, Vietnam and the Soviet Union that makes Cambodia a neutral nation under first Norodom Sihanouk and from 2004 Norodom Chakrapong-) informal conversations between promonarchist pasthun factions of the guerrilla leaded by Abdul Ahad Karzai and the afghan government begun from late 1997, in 1998 it seems that Jamiat-e-Islam party had decided that a coalition government was more interesting than a neverending struggle but before it wants to show his force to Afghan goverment and soviet troops, because this the offensives in Khost and Ghazni, also the military government of Pakistan feared each time more of the radicalization of factions within Pakistan caused by the Afghan War is more decided that in the early 1990´s to a compromise solution.
[8]From early 1998, it was clear that surely the most possible succesor to Ligachev would be Aleksandr Lebed, also from 2000 an each time more sick Ligachev begin to delegate his functions a lot of times in the figure of Lebed.
[9] The principal strong men of this formation were and are Pir Sibghatullah Mojaddedi (leader of the formation), Abdul Haq principal military commander and Abdul Ahad Karzai and his son Hamid Karzai charged of the foreign relations of the formation
[10] In part the coup was caused by the reluctancy of the khalqui faction of the DRPA in give more concessions to the other parties of coalition government.
[11] In the official ceremony were present a lot of personalities, it is necessary to mention here that the negotiations to get a formal detente between Soviet Union and United States and an end to the Cold War was begun in early 1999 by the new Pope John XXIV (born Carlo Maria Martini), elected after the death in an accident of John Paul II in june 1998, the then US president Mario Cuomo with the help of Secretary of State Richard Clarke and the soviet leader Egor Ligachev with the help of foreign soviet minister Bessmertnykh and the minister of Defense and the future succesor of Ligachev Aleksandr Lebed (although it was intended in the beginning to make a joint treaty between United States, Soviet Union and China, the fact that China considers the Taiwan Problem a not negotiable matter makes that at the end and for not make the negotiations a neverending question was decided that independent negotiations will be bring between United States and China)
[12] Although it seems that China pursues more independent politics respect to the Soviet Union in the beginning of the XXI Century, the military alliance continues and also the two giant communist allies continues making mutual messages of friendship, a friendship increased by the fact that exist a personal friendship between the two communist leaders, the soviet Aleksandr Lebed and the chinese Cao Gangchuan.
[13] A Military and Economic Pact whose members are Venezuela, Argentina, Brasil, Uruguay, Paraguay, Ecuador, Bolivia and Peru with Chile as an associated member, in fact they form an authentic military alliance like the NATO and the Warsaw Pact, it has as Secretary-President Jaime Roldos, Economic Secretary Ciro Gomes and Foreign Relations secretary Raul Alfonsin.
[14] With the isolation of the Hezb-e-Islami of practically all the sources of external supplying of weapons and the success of the new Afghan government in his neutral politic of non aligning with any great potence and in getting a peaceful transition with the collaboration of the United Nations and other countries the Hezb-e-Islami is each time more a marginal problem than a real danger (although naturally there is some guerrilla attacks and bombings the Hezb-e-Islami is a far less serious menace for the Afghanistan of TTL than the Taliban of OTL)

[Thande]

Iñaki:

Great work on your timeline, there aren't enough post-WW2 divergence timelines on the board and this is a very good one.

Couple of notes-

1. Why is the Treaty of Stockholm considered to definitively end the Cold War? How is this any different to the period of detente in the 1970s of OTL? Surely it wouldn't take that much to flare up into a new period of hostilities?

2. I know English isn't your first language and I wouldn't make a fuss if it wasn't the title, but 'not gains the power' doesn't work in English grammar - we would say (what if) 'Deng Xioping doesn't gain power'.

Keep up the good work

[Faeelin]

A couple of comments:

It's not clear to me why China, whether or not Deng Xiaoping is ruling it, realigns itself with the USSR. Mao didn't; Deng didn't; why would the ruler now do it?

-If the USSR is crushing Poles in the streets, does the USA launch a grain embargo?

[Iñaki]

Thanks Thande

Originally posted by Thande

1. Why is the Treaty of Stockholm considered to definitively end the Cold War? How is this any different to the period of detente in the 1970s of OTL? Surely it wouldn't take that much to flare up into a new period of hostilities?

Well, the Treaty of Stockholm was the answer in TTL to the necessity for Soviet Leadership, particularly Egor Ligachev and the strong man of Politburo and right hand of Ligachev from 1998 general Aleksandr Lebed and the United States leadership (at the time of the beginning of negotiations was Mario Cuomo the democrat US president) to stop the atmosphere of quasi-war that from 1988 lived the relations between the two blocs: in TTL there was an Iran War in april-july 1988 where the United States, United Kingdom and Iraq fighted against an Iran that was helped with soviet and chinese weapons in that war soviet pilots like in Korea War of 1950-53 manned fighters in the iranian side.

At the difference of OTL in which the 1980´s and 1990´s were the years of perestroika, glasnost, detente and finally dissolution of Soviet Union with a China more centered in continuing his economic reforms with a neutralist policy between the two blocs, in TTL two hardliners in the question of politics and continuing the true way of the socialism (but not closed to the necessary economic reforms) are governing in China and the Soviet Union, in Soviet Union, first Yuri Andropov (a man open to pursue a moderate reformist politic in question of economy but a hardliner in the question of maintaining the power and ideology of the Soviet Union intact) and after Viktor Grishin are two leaders disposed to make some economic changes but not to open the Soviet Union "a lo gorbachev", in China Huo Guofeng, the leader of the leftist faction is at the command, this and the Soviet-Chinese Military Alliance of 1984 has made possible some things that in OTL had been only matter of Tom Clamcy novels, because apart of the Iran War, in TTL China and the United States has had a war in 1989 for the status of Quemoy and Matsu and Taiwan, and after and finally in surely the worst crisis from the Cuban Missiles of 1962 soviet troops and NATO troops clashed during the Yugoslav Civil War of 1994-95 (it was a mixture of common sense and having in both sides not paranoic men the cause that the Yugoslav war was a limited war between NATO and soviet troops and not the prelude for the World War III).

Add all this to the Polish Rebellion of 1990 that was more or less like Hungary in 1956 and you can understand what kind of dark hot cold war has developed in TTL, is because all this, to end a situation of quasi-war that both sides only needs an excuse to try to stop all this dangerous situation, with the democrat Mario Cuomo in the presidency (and the support of the last president, the too democrat Gary Hart), with a new soviet leadership of Egor Ligachev and Aleksandr Lebed more open to negotiate and with the Chinese more centered in the 1990´s in reforming the economy, both sides accepts easily the mediation of another great man of TTL, Pope John XXIV.

The fact of the public announcement of the Cold War is clearly a consecuence of these tragic years when the World saw surely one of the hottest periods of the Cold War, is because this that there is a psicological necessity of both blocs and in general all the world to say publicily that all the fears and nightmares of the Seven Years Crisis (from april 1988 the beginning of the Iran War to the march 1995 data of the battles of Split in Yugoslav Civil War between NATO and croatian troops against soviet and yugoslav troops) never will return.

As say the former Secretary of State Richard Clarke in an interview about the Treaty of Stockholm: "The end of the Cold War not means the end of a competition between the two blocs, means the end of having great probabilities of having a World War III, in having a continous boxing match between the two blocs, I think this is the best homage to all the men and women in both sides that fell during not only the named "Seven Years of Crisis" also during all the period of the Cold War, now is time not only to coexist also to live together cooperating to make possible that a world in peace will the legate to our sons".

It is because this, because the fact that both sides are truly sick of the Cold War, a Cold War that has seen during the period of "the Seven Years of Crisis" the two sides clashing in real combat directly, a period that as almost any other period (with the exception of 1962 and could be 1973 or the Korea War) the ghosts of the World War III had could been very real.

Because all this I doubt that TTL have a new Cold War soon.

Originally posted by Thande
2. I know English isn't your first language and I wouldn't make a fuss if it wasn't the title, but 'not gains the power' doesn't work in English grammar - we would say (what if) 'Deng Xioping doesn't gain power'.

You have reason , in fact I have changed my signature to reflex the correct grammar form, but someone knows how change the title of a thread? Are the administrators the persons that could edit the title of a thread? if someone could answer me I will make the steps to correct this terrible grammatical mistake.

[Iñaki]

QUOTE]Originally posted by Faeelin
It's not clear to me why China, whether or not Deng Xiaoping is ruling it, realigns itself with the USSR. Mao didn't; Deng didn't; why would the ruler now do it?

-If the USSR is crushing Poles in the streets, does the USA launch a grain embargo?
[/quote]

Well the relations between the USSR and China is not doubt one of the most fascinating themes of the Cold War.

First of all Mao Zedong as we know considered the soviet leaders (Kruschev but also Brezhnev) revisionists and worse enemies than the capitalists of United States (also the Soviet Union had a long border with China with a serie of territorial problems between the two giants) so Mao not realigns with the USSR principally because he considered the soviet leaders as traitors to the true way of the Marxism.

This not means necessarily that Mao considered an alliance with the United States from the beginning, apart of being a capitalist nation, it was the problem of Taiwan, during the sixties Mao tried to be the Third Great Power making a politic of confrontation with the soviets and the western potences (this was clearly perceived by the US public opinion and could be seen in films as Goldfinger with Auric Goldfinger making an alliance with Mr. Ling to steal the Fort Knox gold, although not named it is clear that the potence represented by Mr. Ling is China -a country also that always has had an obsession to control the gold market- or the Shoes of a Fisherman where China menaces to begin a World War III against not only the United States also the Soviet Union), the failure of this politic and the arrival to the power of Richard Nixon makes possible attempt to make some kind of rapprochement between the United States and China (Mao considered that worse than the traditional capitalist enemy was a traitor, a consideration that he reserved specially to the soviets) based in the enemy of my enemy is my ally.

So the true question would be was plaussible a new alliance between the Soviet Union and China after the death of Mao (because while living Mao it had been very improbable unless that the Soviet Union had been governed by an stalinist -another thing truly improbable-).

We could see what happens in OTL, here although the relations with the United States were improved by Den Xiaoping (although the establishment of full Sino-American diplomatic relations was not until 1979 when the position of Den Xiaoping was very strong) there was an ideologic limit: communism against capitalism and naturally the question of Taiwan that marked clear limits to the improving of relations.

With Den Xiaoping at command a clear attempt of rapprochement was made in direction of Soviet Union, once that the excess and paranoids of Mao respect of Soviet Union had died with him, the chinese leadership begin to search another time have good relations, this in OTL culminated with the assistance of the chinese foreign minister Huang Hua to the funeral of Brezhnev in 1982, a limit for this rapprochement was the fact of the border problems, the presence of Vietnamite troops in Cambodia and of the soviet troops in Mongolia, but the chinese clearly indicated that if all these matters could be solved China and the USSR could have another time very good relations, could be Andropov in OTL had begun to take the steps to make possible this, but first his sudden illness that makes of the initial reform projects of Andropov very limited in time (Andropov only lives in the power little more than a year and from the middle of 1983 it was clear than Andropov had great probabilities of dying soon) and after the brief Chernenko impass meaned that two entire years: 1983 and 1984 were in great part wasted without making real steps in developing the rapprochement with China.

The arrival of Gorbachev to the power seemed revitalize the possibility of developing the rapprochement, this was clear when the Gorbachev makes clear steps to solve the three principal problems with China: Cambodia, soviet troops in Mongolia and the border problems.

Finally ,in surely if the Berlin Wall had not fallen the most interesting event in international politics in 1989, Gorbachev visited China in may 1989 in the first visit of a soviet leader from the times of Kruschev, but clearly the possibility of even a possible new treaty of friendship between the Soviet Union and China was totally ruled out when first the Tiananmen Events and the Fall of the Eastern European regimes together with the economic politics of Gorbachev caused the chinese government of accusing Gorbachev of revisionist (a thing that was true) and after the fall of the Soviet Union mades of the possibility of a new good relation between China and the Soviet Union a question only interesting for the historians.

What have changed in TTL?: first Den Xiaoping has been defeated in the struggle for the power by Hua Guofeng, leader of the leftist faction (leftist faction but not ultramaoist faction, one thing clear for Hua Guofeng is that had to avoid the excesses of the Mao Age because this he opposed to the Four Gang that precissely represented the Radical Mao thinking), this means that there is more probabilities for a rapprochement with the Soviet Union and also to not improve too much the relations with the United States, second the attempt to make of China a third great potence has failed because the failure in the Vietnam War and all of a serie of economic problems that culminated in the 1980 disturbances when was necessary the use of the army to eliminate the public opposition (more or less like Tiannamen but in 1980), after this was clear for the faction that in TTL controlled China that if they wanted to continue a leftist politic, they needed not only some kind of economic reforms, also to make a rapprochement with the other great potence that seemed more ideologically near to China: the Soviet Union, with this and the fact that Andropov is not so ill than in OTL, soviets and chinese make conversations to solve his mutual problems, the reality that chinese leftist government and soviet andropovist government have a lot of common opinions about the world politics and the capitalist nations and also the fact that Andropov is disposed to solve the Cambodia problem and negotiate a reduction of the soviet troops in Mongolia in exchange of a new treaty of friendship with China and returnig to the good times of the old military alliance is combined with the fact that Soviet Union is disposed to help China in the Taiwan Problem (as happened in TTL in 1989 when Soviet Union send weapons and modern aircraft to help China in the limited war against the United States that makes possible that Quemoy and Matsu could be red chinese territory),
all this is combined to get the thing that in OTL as I say not seemed so far to get: a new alliance between Soviet Union and China.


Respect to the grain embargo, it is for me an incognita that I have to think if the US would implement a true grain embargo caused by the polish rebellion, there are some problems:

1. The polish rebellion seemed not only caused by the soviets, in fact the radicalism of some factions of Solidarnosc made impossible a possible pact between polish government and Solidarnosc, there was an authentic politic storm when some leaders of the Polish Movement of 1989-90 that could flee or were expulsed like Tadeusz Mazowiecki accused not only the soviets but also western politics like Margaret Thatcher and an important part of the republican party to radicalize the opinions of yet radical leaders like Lech Walesa making impossible peaceful solution, in words of Mazowiecki "it was clear that not only Jaruzelski but even a part of the soviet Politburo was disposed to negotiate even with putting on the board some kind of democratic municipal elections, but when Walesa listen the words of Thatcher and some republican politics of United States he believed that could count with the total support of the West to even press more the soviets, an what was the outcome: well soviet tanks in Warsaw, heroic resistances in Czestochowa from workers and polish soldiers rised in rebellion but at the end the crushing of all the dreams of get changes without blood, in fact it seems that the polish rebellion has caused the dismissal of Gorbachev of the Politburo because the other members accuses him of making possible our radicalizations, I only could say that with friends like some western politics who wants enemies?".

2. The atmosphere of quasi-war and paranoid could be only risen with such radical and public measure, also the fact is that the Soviet Union of 1990 of TTL without the very large cost of Chernobyl Accident (that between other great damages caused the contamination of large sections of Ukraine and Belarus wheat lands) a more slow and programmed reforms that has made possible great improvements in the soviet agriculture and transportation (necessary to made possible to send the food production to the city shops) with respect to the static brezhnevist economic and the caotic situation of OTL in 1990 when the Gorbachev reforms were causing a complete disruption of the soviet economy, and also the fact that the soviets with high oil prices caused by the Iran War and the following athmosphere of tension in Middle East had made very rich the principal producer of oil in the world (Do you know who is the principal producer? the Soviet Union ), this means that Soviet Union could buy the wheat that it could needs (a thing that in TTL because all the causes mentioned could be little probable, it seems that in TTL in 1990 the Soviet Union although could be with some difficulties is capable to feed his population without the need to buy grain in the international market) without too much problem -and also in any case China is like OTL a great rice exporter, so in a very improbable case of the Soviet Union could not feed his own population by his own means or to buy in the international market the grain, the only difference that a grain embargo could cause to this Soviet Union is that the soviet people have a little more of rice in their food-.

3. All these things are known by the US analysts, so if the weapon of the grain embargo could be useful in other times, in the situation of the Soviet Union and the world in 1990 in TTL surely would not cause any effect or problem in the Soviet Union, only would radicalize even more the soviet leadership.

In fact it seems than even the republicans know this and prefers to make possible some kind of more effective ways to erode the soviet power and retaliate the soviet repression in Poland: for example the Helms-Broyhill Act.

[Faeelin]

Originally Posted by Iñaki

First of all Mao Zedong as we know considered the soviet leaders (Kruschev but also Brezhnev) revisionists and worse enemies than the capitalists of United States (also the Soviet Union had a long border with China with a serie of territorial problems between the two giants) so Mao not realigns with the USSR principally because he considered the soviet leaders as traitors to the true way of the Marxism.

Note that the timing of Mao's accusations of revisionism are suspiciously similar to when China acquires nuclear weapons. This makes me rather, err, doubtful, that the Sino-Soviet split was due to Kruschev.

[Iñaki]

I don´t resist to make a post about two matters that rounded my mind when I thought in continuing TTL, the first is a list, the second is an interesting and could be sentimental explanation about some of the consecuences of one of the great battles of the US marines and US army of TTL: the battles of Split in march 1995 (this is the official name to the attempts of 3 soviet divisions and 3 yugoslav divisions -in short the soviet 13th Guards Tank Division, the 2nd Tank Division and the 93rd Guards Motor Rifle Division, and the yugoslavs the 32nd Mechanized Division, the 1st Guards Tank Division, the 7th Tank Division - in taking the strategic city of Split against the venerable and veteran 1st US marine division, the 7th british armoured brigade, the italian San Marcos Battalion and the 8th Bersaglieri Regt and two National Croat Defense Brigades, although reinforcements consisting of the 11th and 7th Armored Cavalry Regiments and two more regiments of Bersaglieri would arrive along the 14 days of fighting)

First the list:

List of the president and vicepresident of the United States and the candidates to presidency and vicepresidency from 1976 to 2004.

1976 Democrats James Carter and Walter Mondale defeated Republicans Gerald Ford and Robert Dole.

1980 Republicans Ronald Reagan and George Bush defeated Democrats James Carter and Walter Mondale.

1984 Republicans Ronald Reagan and George Bush defeated Democrats Walter Mondale and Gary Hart.

1988. Democrats Gary Hart and Mario Cuomo defeated Republicans George Bush and James Baker.

1992. Democrats Gary Hart and Mario Cuomo defeated Republicans James Baker and Dick Cheney.

1996. Democrats Mario Cuomo and George Miller defeated Republicans Robert Dole and Rudolph Giulani.

2000. Republicans John McCain and Newt Gingrich defeated Democrats Mario Cuomo and George Miller.

2004. Republicans John McCain and Newt Gingrich defeated Democrats Bill Bradley and Phil Angelides.

So this means that:

1977-1980 Democrat: president James Carter, vicepresident Walter Mondale.

1981-1988 Republican: president Ronald Reagan, vicepresident George Bush.

1989-1996 Democrat: president Gary Hart, vicepresident Mario Cuomo.

1997-2000 Democrat: president Mario Cuomo, vicepresident George Miller.

2001- Republican: president John McCain, vicepresident Newt Gingrich.

note:
Gary Hart was nicknamed "Man of the People" during his presidency, John McCain is nicknamed "The American Man", the two are considered two of the most charismatic presidents of the US history, Gary Hart ironically gained more great popularity for his political decisions refering to foreign politics during one of the worse stages of the Cold War than because his liberal reforms in his famous programme "Contract for the American People"
, John McCain makes the core of his discourses during his first election and after in the politics that he is making the programme "Returning to the spirit of Lincoln" even some democrats refers to John McCain like some kind of FDR but in this case republican.


And finally a note about the battle of Split:

I would let for a later installment a briefing about the battles, basically the NATO troops manage to stop the soviet-yugoslav onslaugh over Split and made so heavy casualties in the enemy troops that Egor Ligachev decided to begin negotiatons to end the Yugoslav Civil War (Conference of Vienna july-november 1995 Yugoslavia recognizes the independence of Eslovenia and Croatia, the territories of Croatia is like OTL Croatia with the exception of the Krajina that is now a new Yugoslav republic and Osijek and surrounding region annexed to Yugoslav Republic of Serbia in exchange of Dubrovnik area that is returned from the yugoslav troops that occupies it to Croatia, also the southern part of Bosnia with croatian majority is annexed to Croatia. So Croatia and Eslovenia are independents and Yugoslavia are now formed by the Yugoslav republics of Krajina, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro and Macedonia).

But a consecuence is that in the middle of the principal square of Split there is now a monument showing in the center an US marine and an US army soldier and in the flanks a british soldier on the right and an italian soldier in the left, two croatian soldiers are sitted below this four soldiers, there is an inscription that says: to the men that fight for the freedom of our city during 1995, the people of Split will ever thankful to them.

More than 3500 Us marines and soldiers died during those 14 days of hell and blood and more of 5000 Us marines and soldiers was wounded during the battles.

All them are buried in the Arlington National Cemetery, an special delegation of the Split City and the Croatian Government visited the Cemetery in a joint ceremony with familiars of the fallen, the croats carried a great flowers crown for each of the US buried soldiers that falls in Split (similar ceremonies were made in Italy and United Kingdom) in each flowers crown is written: You that died for our freedom will have ever our respect and love.

A lot of veterans of those battles continues visiting Split nowadays, they know that in that city they will have ever a lot of friends.

the inhabitants of Split never will forget the sites of where thousands of NATO and croat soldiers died figthing for their city.

In 2005 in the 10th aniversary of the battles a film directed by Steven Spielberg and with Georges Clooney as principal actor makes debut, the film named "And the name of the city is Split" is a realistic and hard film about the fight in Split, with the advises of veterans that fought in Split and the collaboration of US, Italy, UK and Croat militaries and the Split city the film was considered one of the most realistic, hard and spectacular war films of the history of the cinema, in 2006 it won 5 oscars: Best picture, best director, best leading actor, best supporting actor -Mat Damon- and best original screenplay.

While in OTL the Irak war seems that only has resurected the ghosts of Vietnam made impopular the United States in the islamic world in TTL an entire city has a large monument to remember the sacrifice of US soldiers and marines and italian, british and croatian troops (the place in the center of the monument is because that US militaries formed the majority of the NATO troops in Split).

[Iñaki]

Originally posted by Faeelin
Note that the timing of Mao's accusations of revisionism are suspiciously similar to when China acquires nuclear weapons. This makes me rather, err, doubtful, that the Sino-Soviet split was due to Kruschev.

Well although is no doubt that the acquisiton of nuclear weapons by China caused a lot of fear in Moscow (if I remember well Moscow in 1968 was planning some kind of military action to neutralize the incipient chinese nuclear forces, at the end but because Moscow could not be sure of the position of United States before a soviet attack against China, was decided to not implement such plan), China not made his first nuclear weapon until 1964, before this China had criticed the Soviet Union, in 1962 it was clear that there was a cisma between the soviet and the chinese: the solution to the Cuban Crisis -for the chinese a capitulation of the soviets before the capitalists- but without doubt the not supporting and disaproval of the Soviet Union of the Chinese war against India was the event that clearly marked the end of any possible good relation between China and the Soviet Union, finally a last attempt to get some kind of rapprochement ended in a failure in the meeting in Moscow in july of 1963.

In fact even in the late 1950´s from the Taiwan crisis of 1958 the relations between China and the Soviet Union was becoming each time more difficult (this could be seen for example in the novel "On the Beach" written in 1958 that depicts in 1963 a situation of radiation advancing to the south to the last survivors in Australia and other parts of the world, the atomic war is cause between other things because a chinese atomic attack against the Soviet Union) the final thing that definitively ended the good relations were the events of 1962 and although it is clear that the solution of Cuban crisis was a good decision of Kruschev and Kennedy (at least for the humankind), the decision of Kruschev of not only not supporting China in the war against India, also criticise the chinese because the war was the best way to get that Mao´s China decided that could not trust in the Soviet Union.

[Smaug]

Nice timeline Ignore the spelling and grammatical remarks, its the ideas that matter.

[Faeelin]

Hmm. I suppose.

[Iñaki]

Thanks Smaug

Although I recognize that at least some times I have dreamed that the Armada commanded by Alvaro de Bazan succeeds in occupying England in 1588-1590 and in the XXI Century an alternate history board is born using as primary language the castilian. (the board has as administrator Juan Pedroso -the alternate version of Ian), in that board I not need using a dictionary to write and I have not problem of grammar mistakes

[Iñaki]

This is the world of TTL in 2006 dividided between the principal military alliances (The Cold War could have ended but the alliances continue existing):

This colour represents the NATO and ANZUS alliances

This colour represents Croatia and Eslovenia associated with the NATO

This colour represents the countries strongly aligned with the West.

This colour represents the Warsaw Pact.

The yellow colour represents Iran and China (and North Korea in alliance with China) that have alliances with the Soviet Union (I put this lines not in yellow to not kill your eyes)

This colour represents Yugoslavia associated with the Warsaw Pact.

This colour represents the states strongly aligned with the East.

This colour represents the members of the Delhi Pact Cooperation Organization.

This colour represents the members of the Association of Iberoamerican Nations.

And finally the light yellow represents South African Influence Sphere.

[Iñaki]

Well, it is hard to me lately to work in an order way in putting updates, but sometimes I have some inspiration and get to write some interestings things about this Timeline, although I am sorry guys, this seems more a tuttifrutti not too much organized although interesting.

Today for example I have some inspiration and free time to work in some aspects of this timeline.

So a little biography (Note: this person exists in OTL but because the divergence POD of TTL is around 1976-77 in the case of China and begin to affect each time more the rest of the world from 1981, the life of this person is enough different than in OTL).





Maria Piekarska Katarzyna

Born in 23 september 1967.

She is licenciated in politics. Between other books she has written ”Socialism and Ecology”(2005)

Foreign minister of Poland in the Coalition government of the Communist Party-Polish Peasant Party (from 2005).

Member of the Communist Polish Party, and one of the champions of the named eco-communism (current that beginning from late 1990´s defended the need of searching an equilibrium between ecology and technological and industrial advances, this current defends that the true communism has to defend the ecology far better than the capitalism because the true communism search the true welfare of the population and not the submission to the interests of the great industries as the capitalism).

As the seven years crisis beginning in 1988 (the begin of the Iran War) young Maria Piekarska decided to begin studies in the Warsaw University in politics, she saw with horror the soviet repression in Warsaw against the Solidarnosc demonstrators, this and the fact that she knew through friends and partners that the repression had been caused in an important part by the fact of that Solidarnosc put at the end irreal and radical proposals in the Negotiation Tables during late 1989- early 1990 with the Polish Government and the Soviet Authorities [1] convinced her that the only and peaceful form of change the polish communist society was from inside of the communist government.

She believed that was possible some kind of new communism that truly could get some kind of communist utopia, her lectures about the economic politics of the western nations convinced her also that the capitalism with his labour problems, the submission to great industries and also the attacks against the ecology was not the solution, the same happened with the hardliner communism that was converting with the obsolete industries the eastern countries in ecological and technological disasters.

It would not until 1996 when new reforms impulsed by Egor Ligachev begin not only to use the old tactics of joint ventures, fight against corruption and strengthening the relations between the diferent socialist and allies countries (essentially reinforcing the mutual help and coordination of chinese-soviet-eastern europe politics) also to trying to search new faces and ideas that without damaging the core of the communist ideology could give some kind of new solutions and new generations to the politics of the communist countries, it would in this year when Maria Piekarska entered in the communist party in the politic section of Warsaw as member of the named reformist tendence that tried to change the way of the politics from the inside, in 2000 Maria Piekarska joined to the opinion tendency that little to little was being formed from late 1990´s in different eastern countries including Soviet Union that was named „”Eco-Communism”, the search of a communism with a human, ecological face, [2].

The arrival to the power of Aleksandr Lebed in 2002 reinforced the fact that the soviet leadership was decided to present new ideas and faces for making possible that the communism iedology could survive the XXI century, at the same time that Lebed indicated that the Soviet Union and the other socialis countries had to stay alert to stop any attempt of paracapitalist position or rebellion, Lebed was disposed to begin experiments for give the Communism a new face and body ”withouth touching the good and true heart of the socialist ideology”[3].

Is in this circumstances when the young Maria Piekarska as one of the leaders of the eco-communists in Poland, with a great fluency in different languages and with experience in visiting western countries as member of different minor delegations from the Communist Party of Poland was chosen by the Kwasniewski government as an special assesor in the Committee for the Municipal Elections of 2004, the first elections that permitted several different lists between different sections of opinion in the Communist Party in cities with minor of 100.000 inhabitants, the success of the experiment permitted the assumption in 2005 of president Kwasniewski of an authentic revolutionary measure the formation of an authentic Coalition Government a lo Afghanistan between the Communist Party and the Peasant Party, in a clear gesture of political opening [4].

Named Foreign Relations Minister of the Coalition Government, Maria Piekarska is no doubt one of the new faces of the new communism of the XXI Century.


[1] As Tadeusz Mazowiecki and other moderate members of Solidarnosc accused in late 1990 in a conference in London, after being expelled from Poland in a forced exile by the communist authorities, Lech Walesa had been impulsed in an important part to take a radical posture in the negotiations by the support of some western politicians like Margaret Thatcher and some republican politicans in the United States that considered this the great opportuninty to get a democratic revolution in Eastern Europe, this combined with the belief that the reformist faction in Soviet Politburo leaded by Gorbachev could stop a possible soviet military intervention gave the terribly mistaken sensation that truly Solidarnosc could force an authentic democratic revolution not only in Poland but even in all Eastern Europe. (I reccomend for a good read about the Polish rebellion of 1990 the book by Tadeusz Mazowiecki “A cardboard castle of Illusions: The true about the Polish Rebellion” (1992 Interpolitic Books Ltd.)

[2] It sounds a lot of idealistic, although the fact of the shock and fear of the “Seven Years Crisis” with the real possibility of a Third World War not only in the western countries but also in the communist countries and even between the politic leaders of Soviet Union makes possible an evolution that some psychologists and sociologists has named “The escaping way”: the clear need to try to put the most possible distance to all the circunstances and elements that could made possible a new Hot Cold War.
The Eco-Communism has as one of the founders Vladimir Buzayev that is the actual full member of Politburo-minister of Ecology and Natural Resources of the Soviet Union.

[3] Public Conference of Lebed in november 2002 in a Warsaw Pact reunion before the Eastern European leaders, Gregor Gysi (GDR), Gyula Thurmer (Hungary), Aleksander Kwasniewski (Poland), Miroslav Zavadil (Czechoslovakia), Georgi Pirinski (Bulgaria), Constantin Rotaru (Rumania), Fatos Nano (Albania) and Nebojsa Covic (Yugoslavia, not a member of the Warsaw Pact although it has an association relation to this organization because this status of association Yugoslavian president Nebojsa Covic was in the Public Conference).

[4] Naturally all this “democratization” experiment was made under the vigilance of the other members of the Warsaw Pact specially of the Soviet Union to stop any attempt of going too far away from the preservation of the “the good and true heart of the socialist ideology”