Il Duce waits until 1941

[Cymraeg]

Originally Posted by CharlesMartell

Yes I understand that but even so, if you want to tip the odds of the campaign in your favour, you send the best weapon at your disposal.
And in March 1941 the deadliest fighting weapon on the face of the planet was a German Panzer Division.

If the campaign was a joint plan between Hitler / Mussolini (see OP) then why not?

As in my OP there is also the added inducement to Hitler that if he helps the Italians get as far as Suez then his troops get to help themselves to Jerusalem and Palestine in phase two of the operation.

But why would it be a joint plan? Libya is an Italian possession, it’s in the Italian sphere of interest. There is already a substantial Italian Army there that should be more than sufficient – Hitler would see no reason to send forces there, and besides by 1941 his eyes were fixed on Russia. He only sent forces to Libya in early OTL 1941 because Mussolini reluctantly asked for help in the wake of the catastrophes that had destroyed the entire Italian position in Eastern Libya. ITTL Mussolini would still be full of confidence that he could take Egypt with just his own forces. He’d never ask for German help as he would still think of himself as the senior partner in the Axis (having been in power for longer).

[Rich Rostrom]

Originally Posted by Cymraeg

the Italian forces were badly led, badly equipped and were being rounded up by the acre by far smaller British forces.

Quote from a British officer after Beda Fomm: "We have five acres of officers and two hundred acres of other ranks."

[Cymraeg]

Originally Posted by Rich Rostrom

Quote from a British officer after Beda Fomm: "We have five acres of officers and two hundred acres of other ranks."

Yup that's the quote I had in mind!

[Rich Rostrom]

Originally Posted by von Adler

The British send all their convoys arond Africa anyway - the Med was too dangerous in war-time.

The Med was not dangerous until Italy declared war. Up to that point it was safer than the open Atlantic, since it was impossible for German surface raiders to operate there, and nearly impossible for U-boats.

It was also the shortest route to half the British Empire: India, Malaya, Australia, and New Zealand.

The longer route around Africa put a very large strain on British shipping capacity.

[von Adler]

Originally Posted by Magnum

Adler, this is not the whole story. There are ways to alleviate some of the logistical problems.

1. railway




Have the Marj to Derna line completed in the 1940-1941 timeframe. This should free up lots of trucks and be far more effeective.

This does not help. The German engineers tied to the DAK expected they needed at least 15 months to create any kind of workable railroad.

Originally Posted by Magnum

2. Stock up
The italians can build large (even huge) supply depots close to the border with almost a year in advance to prepare, thus solving a large part of the problem

Nothing exist in a vacuum. The Italians will have to do this on thier own, and they were not very good at building infrastructure and building supply depots. And the British will surely know the Italians are building up for an offensive, and build their forces in Egypt. There is no railroad from the Egyptian border to El Alamein (the British built it before Operation Crusader OTL), but there is one from Cairo to El Alamein.

Originally Posted by Magnum

3.Trucks
- The germans OTL pressured the vichy French to sell a lot of their trucks in north africa to the italians.
- with more time, the italians themselves can produce and ship more trucks
- if the start date is in early 1941, the germans can ship some more of their trucks. Barbarossa is still half a year away, and once the Suez is reached, they may think they can send most of them back
- trucks can also be captured from the british, just as Rommel did OTL

You need spare parts, mechanics and fuel. You cannot depend on captured or foreign stock for more than short circumstances. The French did not have that many trucks in North Africa, certainly not in the range of 10000, which is what would be needed, at the least. Everything the Germans send to North Africa takes away from Barbarossa - they cannot get it back quickly once it is there. It took the Germans 3 months to deploy the DAK OTL, and that was just two divisions. And the British have substantial assets in Iraq and a large army in India to call upon if pressured back - the Germans can't simply withdraw troops or trucks and commit them to Barbarossa once they have reached Suez, and they know it. The desert wears trucks down at an alarming rate.

Originally Posted by Magnum

4. Supply consumption
- given the appaling british performance in the early years, if the axis uses overwhelming force, than fighting may take place in short, intense intervals whenever the british try to make a stand, thus reducing supply consumption (even more if Rommel manages to trap and destroy a british division early on)
- with the Battle of Britain switched to night bombing and Barbarossa stil months away, the Germans can deploy significant Luftwaffe assets. These will have a far lower supply consumption than a panzer division, yet still produce a huge, potentialy game-changing impact

The British learned, and learned quick, which Operation Compass is a clear indictator of. The British lost a lot in Africa due to sending their most experienced and best forces away - 7. Armoured to the reserve, 4. Indian to East Africa, troops to Greece, etc. 450 tons per day is for normal operations for a German Panzer Division. Offensive battle adds about 50% on top of it. How will the Germans supply their forces once at El Alamein (a short line, well-supplied with railroad by the British)? Even the best troops can't fight without fuel and ammunition, as OTL's Battle of El Alamein showed.

Originally Posted by Magnum

5. Air supply
Germany has some Ju-52s and the like just sitting around doing nothing. Barbarossa is stil months away. Use them to supply your forces. Also use pilots other than flight-school instructors on them. These pilots can have only minimal training, since they don't have to know anything about bombing, complex navigation or engaging the enemy.

They are most certainly not sitting around doing nothing! They are used for liason work - transporting plans, maps, important technicians and officers to organise Barbarossa, etc. The Germans lost more than half their air transport fleet over the Netherlands in May 1940, and the roughly 250 that remain, if completely pulled from other duties (a disaster for Barbarossa), they can perhaps supply 500 tons daily from Italy - and you do need skilled navigators to fly over the ocean and you will need a skilled crew. Do you think the British will not base fighters on Malta to interdict these slow and cumbersome transport planes?

This is disregarding that you will need trucks to transport the supplies from the airfields (few and far apart in Libya) to the front anyway, and that the planes will need ground crews, mechanics, drag-inducing sand filters for their engines and supplies in Libya.

Originally Posted by Magnum

6. Mules and other
Why is using animal caravans a bad idea. They eat local food (and thus don't use up the precious petrol) and they don't require spare parts. Sure, their slow, but you can have a steady stream of them.

I am sorry, I must completely have missed the vast green pastures in Libya where mules, horses and other pack animals can graze freely. And the vast water supplies they can drink from every day when stoically bringing supplies to the front. A mule can carry about 0,1 ton. It drinks about 10 litres of water per day carrying that load. If it only carries water for itself, it can, assuming an average speed of 5km/h and 16 hour marches per day, it can get 800km on its own water load. Carrying no supplies at all. And disregarding that 20% of the carried weight would be packaging. It does not even get a third of the way between Tripoli and El Alamein, carrying only water for itself and no supplies at all.

Originally Posted by Magnum

7. Suplying Italian East Africa once hostilities start
This is tricky. However, some trickle of supplies can be brought over if the axis uses one or more hidden airbases located in the south of Lybia. it won't be much, but stuff like antibiotics and small and valuable spare parts can make a huge difference for the local forces.

Not tricky, impossible. Are the axist to use their 250 German and ~100 Italian transport planes to deliver supplies through French Chad (which have no airbases at all, AFAIK, so they need to go there and build them first)? Modern antibiotics were invented - in the US - in 1942 and were not available to the axis forces during the war.

Originally Posted by Magnum

Also, would small caravans crossing the desert and somehow the Nile in secret manage to get all the way to Ethiopia ?

Yes, disregard this truck column filled with weapons, ammunition and military supplies travelling down the Nile. The Italians had 100000 men in Ethiopia, secret deliveries will be less than a drop in the ocean, even if they get through.

Originally Posted by Magnum

8. Blocking the Suez
If the Italians plan their war entry, then they can actually, you know, plan. This means that they can do all sorts of things in the opening hours, like maybe having one or two merchant ships scuttle themselves while crossing the Suez, effectively blocking it for some time. This will wreak havoc on british supplies

No, it will not. The British were not using Suez to transport anything but their supplies coming around Africa, because Alexandria was easier to get through. Do you know how large the Suez is? Sinking a single vessel in one end will not block it - if it does, the British can just blow it to smitherens in a day or two - or simply go down, plug the leak and refloat the vessel - the Suez is not deep enough for a sinking larger ship to be submerged.

[Rich Rostrom]

Originally Posted by CharlesMartell

Let's assume a PoD of June 1st 1940.
The world can see the writing on the wall for France and Mussolini is keen for a piece of the action.
HOWEVER, wise advisers to Il Duce inform him that Britain has no intention of surrendering and Germany (for all Hitler/Goering's bluster) will have a tough time mounting a successful invasion.

In June 1940, hardly anyone thought Britain would fight on.

Her allies had all been crushed with apparent ease, her army had been wrecked at Dunkirk, her cities lay open to destruction by the Luftwaffe, and the U-boats were starting to slaughter her shipping.

Coming to terms with Germany seemed to be the only realistic choice for Britain.

We know now that Germany had no useful capacity to invade Britain in 1940. But that was not only unobvious then, recent events seemed to support the opposite conclusion. The German armed forces had in the previous four months done astonishing things, using bold new methods of war. Much of what they did had been deemed impossible or simply not even thought of by other militaries. It would have been a very bold pundit who would state categorically that Germany could not invade Britain.

However - I'm going to address something else entirely. Italy's declaration of war gave the Axis a major naval power, with a significant battleship fleet. The peace terms agreed to by Vichy France included interment of the French battlefleet under German control or supervision; it seemed likely that fleet would be taken over and used by the Germans. If that fleet was joined with the Italian fleet and Germany's small but dangerous fleet, even the mighty Royal Navy could not guarantee control of the waters around Britain.

This fear was I believ behind the British attack on the French fleet at Oran, which understandably alienated the French and insured that none of the French colonies would declare for Free France except Equatorial Africa. If Italy does not enter the war, Britain may feel the Oran operation is not needed.

If there is no Oran attack, then by 1941 additiona French colonies will have joined Free France: possibly even Algeria. If Algeria joins Free France, Italian ambitions in Africa are checked, and Mussolini will stay neutral.

[sharlin]

The French fleet after the surrender always seemed to have the plan to scuttle if the germans tried to grab them.

[lukedalton]

Honestly if Benny don't enter the war in 1940 i doubt that he will even bother except at the end trying to grab what possible, as the continued resistance of Great Britain (not even counting a possible larger Free France due to no Oran) will probably be enough to make him accept the 'bribe' proposed and keep making business.
But if he wait for 1941 what change? Regarding material and training not much as there is too little time, but a little though before war mean:

- rationing from the beginning
- merchant marine not lost
- probably the two planned corsair ship will be finished and sent (during peacetime) in the Atlantic
- Taranto will be more difficult as there were plan to boost her defense but time and money lacked, here things can be different.
- some more planning and less rushed things.
- little more time for contnuing in replenish the supply of the armed forces.

Regarding UK well no North African and Med theatre mean that Winston Churchill now have men and material for one of his plan.

[Xgentis]

I think that if the Italians do not enter the war in 1940 they won't enter the war at all.

[RPW@Cy]

Originally Posted by Xgentis

I think that if the Italians do not enter the war in 1940 they won't enter the war at all.

This. Entering the war when they did is understandable - stupid, but understandable - as there was an appparently realistic possibility that the war would be over in a few weeks and Italy needed to be in to demand goodies at the peace conference.

Joining in in 1941 on the other hand when it's clear Germany doesn't have what it takes to invade Britain and that Britain is clearly in it for the long haul - and especially given that Germany is about to start a new and massive war fraught with risk - is just crazy.

[Shaby]

I can see Italy entering the war only against USSR as this was what they wanted Germany to do all along. It would probably mean UK entering against them as well.

[Garrison]

Might one other beneficiary of an Italian delay or non-entry be the British colonies in the far East? With no North Africa campaign draining off resources and generals the British might give a higher priority to the defences there than they got OTL and with the Med open for convoys it would be quicker and simpler to do so.

[The Oncoming Storm]

Almost certainly yes, I think Britain's pre-war assumptions was that the French would hold the Med and if war with Japan broke out the bulk of the RN Mediterranean Fleet would be sent east to protect Singapore. France's collapse threw that strategy out the window and Britain simply didn't have the forces to cover both theatres.

What also could have been a game changer was if Churchill gave more resources to Compass and if Libya was captured by early 1941 instead of diverting resources for the Greek fiasco. Most of the Eighth Army and Desert Air Force could then have been sent out east.

[Garrison]

Originally Posted by The Oncoming Storm

Almost certainly yes, I think Britain's pre-war assumptions was that the French would hold the Med and if war with Japan broke out the bulk of the RN Mediterranean Fleet would be sent east to protect Singapore. France's collapse threw that strategy out the window and Britain simply didn't have the forces to cover both theatres.

What also could have been a game changer was if Churchill gave more resources to Compass and if Libya was captured by early 1941 instead of diverting resources for the Greek fiasco. Most of the Eighth Army and Desert Air Force could then have been sent out east.

In effect Italy was a dead weight for the Germans but quite useful for the Japanese.

[Cymraeg]

Originally Posted by Garrison

In effect Italy was a dead weight for the Germans but quite useful for the Japanese.

True. What I find amusing however is the thought that Mussolini genuinely seems to have thought that Italy was a major power.

[kclcmdr]

IF Il Duce is willing to wait until 1941 to join the War on the Axis side...

For now...

It might be more preferable that those Italian troops be used during Operation Barbarossa among with whatever mechanized and mobile tank units ; however weak; be available...

The British would not have the inclination to declare war upon the Italians as they would still be defending their Sovereign soil in Great Britain from any potential German plans for her, however unlikely as their Intel Teams will find out eventually from their deciphering of the Enigma codes....

And maybe moving their best units out from Africa and supplementing this Army Group to 'assist' on the Eastern Front with their fellow Axis Allies ; especially in Army Group South ; might help the Axis capture Odessa and maybe the Crimea region a tad bit faster and give the Soviets even more of an headache in all three battle region fronts...

meh... maybe......

[Cymraeg]

[QUOTE=kclcmdr;6811278]IF Il Duce is willing to wait until 1941 to join the War on the Axis side...

For now...

It might be more preferable that those Italian troops be used during Operation Barbarossa among with whatever mechanized and mobile tank units ; however weak; be available...

QUOTE]

I can just imagine a conversation between two puzzled crew members of a KV1 tank now...
"Hey, Yuri?"
"What?"
"What's all this crap on the treads? Looks like squashed tin foil and some kind of red goop."
"Oh, shit, I forgot - some of those little Italian tanks were in front of us so I ran them over."

[AdA]

Originally Posted by Xgentis

I think that if the Italians do not enter the war in 1940 they won't enter the war at all.

Greece? they might still see an oportunity there...
Could they invade Greece and not get in the "whole" war?

[Magnum]

Originally Posted by Garrison

In effect Italy was a dead weight for the Germans but quite useful for the Japanese.

I think all those British soldiers killed by Italians in the Mediterranean would turn in their graves if they somehow heard about this. Likewise the Soviet ones on the eastern front.

[kclcmdr]

Originally Posted by Cymraeg

.....
I can just imagine a conversation between two puzzled crew members of a KV1 tank now...
"Hey, Yuri?"
"What?"
"What's all this crap on the treads? Looks like squashed tin foil and some kind of red goop."
"Oh, shit, I forgot - some of those little Italian tanks were in front of us so I ran them over."

Yeah... but German Army Group South will need those extra infantry and motorized divisions from their Italian Axis Allies to assist in covering any region that they had to either by-pass or needed to surround in order to break the Soviet units that were garrisoning the front and the rear in the Ukraine region....