Confederate states of america:allies or axis

[deh74]

Originally Posted by Jasen777

http://wiki.alternatehistory.com/dok...tterfly_effect

ok then, i feel stupid now...

[King Midas]

Originally Posted by deh74

ok then, i feel stupid now...

Don't. The Mighty Butterfly is a Shibboleth to many on this board. Some even believe in the Great Quantum Butterfly. For ex, Lincoln and Darwin were both born on the same day. If, nine months earlier, Abe's parents had just rolled over and gone to sleep early, CHARLES DARWIN WOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN BORN! Evolutionary theory would never have been discovered, and the world today would be ruled by a all powerful fundamentalist church!



To answer your question from the view of this board's collective wisdom, once they get past your blaspheming of the Holy Winged One: Since the only political entity more evil than the Third Reich was the CSA, either Hitler would join the CSA out of worship, or else the Nazis would forget about Bolshevism, and unite the world to destroy the *real* enemy - the CSA.

Oh, wait, forget that: The Nazis might unite the world against the CSA, but they could never get the sealift to do anything about it.

[Anaxagoras]

Originally Posted by deh74

ok then, i feel stupid now...

No need to feel stupid. You're new here. It takes a little time to get acclimatized. But one of the first rules you should learn about Alternate History is never to underestimate the Butterfly Effect. From the moment your POD takes place, everything in your TL is going to be different than it was IOTL. The outcome of sporting events will be different, the weather will be different, stock market fluctuations will be different. It's not enough to say that the outcomes of battles will be different- most likely the battles with which we are familiar IOTL will simply never take place at all.

So, if there is a different outcome to the American Civil War, history will be so different that there will obviously never be a Second World War. Indeed, there might not even be a First World War and even if there is it would be so different from the First World War IOTL as to be unrecognizable.

[deh74]

ya i think your'e right that i just need to get acclimated and probably reasearch a little bit.

[BigWillyG]

I put neutral but honestly the butterflies from a Confederate victory and a divided US mean that the Allies and Axis never exist and conflicts parallel to the world wars will be unrecognizable from OTL wars.

[Westphalian]

Just a few examples for possible (not automatic) differences:
Assumption: The CSA wins because the UK and France recognize its independence and send economic help; but not military assistance.

Results: The US are pissed off. Talk of helping British North America throwing off Albion's yoke will be much loder and more accepted. Even after TTLs version of Canada is created, tensions will be higher, there will be probably more British military presence in Canada. Especially naval presence in Nova Scotia and British Columbia.

The French presence in Mexico will continue for longer. Maximilian will not die this time, and Napoleon III will not be as embarrassed.

The Spanish throne crisis of 1870 will probably happen as in our world. But will the CSA try to grab the sugar-and-slavery colony of Cuba? And if so, will the UK protest? Letting the slave power expand into the Caribbean will look very bad at home and at the polls.

Meanwhile, a not-as-stultified Napoleon III will not feel as strongly the need to perform a dominance act over Prussia. Heads: He declares war only when the French army is ready. Tails: War is avoided altogether at this point. [throws a coin: Tails. Peace it is.]

Emperor Napoleon III dies in 1873. His still minor son succeeds as Napoleon IV. The French parliament tries to establish parliamentary rule with a figurehead emperor. Heads: They do so. Tails: Coup d'Etat and a short French Civil war. [Tails again: Communards, Republicans, Bonapartists, Orleanists and Legitimists duke it out. The war threatens to combine with the Third Carlist War in Spain]

The French troops are called back from Mexico. Emperor Maximilian sighs deeply and asks the CSA for military help against the rebels. [heh!] Richmond obliges, with an eye on future expansion into Yucatan, good slavery country.

Meanwhile in 1874, the Prussian PM Bismarck is shot and killed by a fanatic Catholic, since his anti-clerical policies have not changed in this timeline.
Do we get a Franco-Prussian war this time, due to some or other faction's troops inadvertently crossing the border near the Saar? Yes, but Bismarck's successors bungles it badly due to bad coordination with the military. The Southern German states stay neutral and vis-a-vis the Prussian invasion of Metz the French unite - under [dice roll] the liberal-leaning Thiers government with the Orleanist pretender as rather powerless King Louis-Philippe II. of the French.

Prussia faces a resurgent France, a rather unfriendly UK, a disinterested Russia and a distrustfull Austria. In order to secure a quick peace, Berlin throws away the Saarland - a painful sacrifice, but better than fighting who knows who and possibly losing much more. But historians still see the Peace of Strasbourg as the beginning of Prussia losing her grip over the states of the Northern German Confederation and especially Saxony's open defiance of the Prussian presidency. A disgusted King Wilhelm I. abdicates. The new king is the far more liberal Friedrich III., who begins to repair the relations with the UK, France and the own Social Democrats.

And so on and so on. We have not even reached the 1880, and by then the Balkans might look quite different from our time line, since random changes in diplomacy and war will have a big effect.

In short: "Axis" and "Allies" will be meaningless in this world.

[othyrsyde]

I would pitch an idea, but largely I have grown to hate the concept of the CSA with strong passion. It has grown to the point where I'm tempted to make a TL where it does win independence but to have it shattered and conquered by Mexico just to see them cry.

[deh74]

Originally Posted by othyrsyde

I would pitch an idea, but largely I have grown to hate the concept of the CSA with strong passion. It has grown to the point where I'm tempted to make a TL where it does win independence but to have it shattered and conquered by Mexico just to see them cry.

i for one would love to read that.

[lounge60]

Originally Posted by RamscoopRaider

that people like Hitler, Churchill Stalin and Mussolini are not born, and

If CSA win, in Italy the father and the mother of Mussolini don't make love?

[Jasen777]

Originally Posted by lounge60

If CSA win, in Italy the father and the mother of Mussolini don't make love?

His parents married in 1882. His father was born in 1854, so he would be a kid when whatever the POD is hits. Plenty of time for him to meet someone else instead. And even if his parents do hook up, a different sperm wins the race. There could be a Benito Mussolini, but he would be no similar to OTL's version than you'd be to a sibling. Which of course could be somewhat similar, or completely different...

[Jasen777]

Originally Posted by deh74

ok then, i feel stupid now...

Sorry, I wasn't trying to have you feel that way.

[CT23]

Whatever the case, if there was a world war with the CSA in it, I imagine it and the USA would be on different sides.

[hairysamarian]

Originally Posted by deh74

wasn't sure to post this question in before or after 1900 forums so i went here. my teacher and I were having a discussion a couple of days ago that if the Confederate states of america won the civil war and remained independent, if it would side with the axis powers in world war 2 personally I think that it would because it would hate the united states and it would have been even more segregated at that time between blacks and whites, which was like how germany was segregated against jews. my teacher didn't think that because an overwhelming amount of its trade would go to the united states and the other allies. discuss.

Assuming, for the sake of argument, that a substantially similar WW2 still takes place (cut OP some slack, guys, this seems more like a thought exercise to me), an independent CSA will be a second- or third-tier state dependent on foreign trade and its northern rival to support its still largely agrarian economy. They'll have no choice but to join the Allies; anything else will be economic (also probably political and military) suicide.

[Anaxagoras]

Originally Posted by Jasen777

His parents married in 1882. His father was born in 1854, so he would be a kid when whatever the POD is hits. Plenty of time for him to meet someone else instead. And even if his parents do hook up, a different sperm wins the race.

Ah, yes. The crudely but aptly named "ball wiggle effect". If you ask me, if you really want to do a TL right, no one from OTL who was born more than a year after the POD should exist in the ATL.

Originally Posted by CT23

Whatever the case, if there was a world war with the CSA in it, I imagine it and the USA would be on different sides.

Why? Britain and the USA have repeatedly fought beside one another as allies, after all.

[LostCosmonaut]

Originally Posted by hairysamarian

Assuming, for the sake of argument, that a substantially similar WW2 still takes place (cut OP some slack, guys, this seems more like a thought exercise to me), an independent CSA will be a second- or third-tier state dependent on foreign trade and its northern rival to support its still largely agrarian economy. They'll have no choice but to join the Allies; anything else will be economic (also probably political and military) suicide.

Also, assuming slavery is gone by this point (I honestly can't see it lasting past about 1900), the cultural and linguistic similarities with the USA probably mean that the CSA would be more likely to side with the US, in addition to the above reasons.

[Elfwine]

I wouldn't say that it's impossible to have people born after the POD be like the OTL people, but events will lead to changes.

For instance, Westphalian's scenario. At some point, the circumstances that lead to OTL Hitler or Mussolini or Franco will be eliminated, even if the butterflies don't do it automatically (whether that's the case or not is subject to debate - some people like me take a more flexible approach than others).

A thing I'd suggest: Just because OTL WWII is averted doesn't necessarily mean you can't have a war with Germany on one side, Britain on the other, and the CSA wondering who to favor in the 1940s.

[hairysamarian]

Originally Posted by Elfwine

A thing I'd suggest: Just because OTL WWII is averted doesn't necessarily mean you can't have a war with Germany on one side, Britain on the other, and the CSA wondering who to favor in the 1940s.

You noticed that too, hmm? History's roots go back a long way, and in the case of WW2 I think it's safe to say that they go back farther than WW1. So even if the identical event does not occur (how could it, after all?) an analogue is thoroughly plausible.

[jkarr]

Originally Posted by Westphalian

Just a few examples for possible (not automatic) differences:
Assumption: The CSA wins because the UK and France recognize its independence and send economic help; but not military assistance.

Results: The US are pissed off. Talk of helping British North America throwing off Albion's yoke will be much loder and more accepted. Even after TTLs version of Canada is created, tensions will be higher, there will be probably more British military presence in Canada. Especially naval presence in Nova Scotia and British Columbia.

The French presence in Mexico will continue for longer. Maximilian will not die this time, and Napoleon III will not be as embarrassed.

The Spanish throne crisis of 1870 will probably happen as in our world. But will the CSA try to grab the sugar-and-slavery colony of Cuba? And if so, will the UK protest? Letting the slave power expand into the Caribbean will look very bad at home and at the polls.

Meanwhile, a not-as-stultified Napoleon III will not feel as strongly the need to perform a dominance act over Prussia. Heads: He declares war only when the French army is ready. Tails: War is avoided altogether at this point. [throws a coin: Tails. Peace it is.]

Emperor Napoleon III dies in 1873. His still minor son succeeds as Napoleon IV. The French parliament tries to establish parliamentary rule with a figurehead emperor. Heads: They do so. Tails: Coup d'Etat and a short French Civil war. [Tails again: Communards, Republicans, Bonapartists, Orleanists and Legitimists duke it out. The war threatens to combine with the Third Carlist War in Spain]

The French troops are called back from Mexico. Emperor Maximilian sighs deeply and asks the CSA for military help against the rebels. [heh!] Richmond obliges, with an eye on future expansion into Yucatan, good slavery country.

Meanwhile in 1874, the Prussian PM Bismarck is shot and killed by a fanatic Catholic, since his anti-clerical policies have not changed in this timeline.
Do we get a Franco-Prussian war this time, due to some or other faction's troops inadvertently crossing the border near the Saar? Yes, but Bismarck's successors bungles it badly due to bad coordination with the military. The Southern German states stay neutral and vis-a-vis the Prussian invasion of Metz the French unite - under [dice roll] the liberal-leaning Thiers government with the Orleanist pretender as rather powerless King Louis-Philippe II. of the French.

Prussia faces a resurgent France, a rather unfriendly UK, a disinterested Russia and a distrustfull Austria. In order to secure a quick peace, Berlin throws away the Saarland - a painful sacrifice, but better than fighting who knows who and possibly losing much more. But historians still see the Peace of Strasbourg as the beginning of Prussia losing her grip over the states of the Northern German Confederation and especially Saxony's open defiance of the Prussian presidency. A disgusted King Wilhelm I. abdicates. The new king is the far more liberal Friedrich III., who begins to repair the relations with the UK, France and the own Social Democrats.

And so on and so on. We have not even reached the 1880, and by then the Balkans might look quite different from our time line, since random changes in diplomacy and war will have a big effect.

In short: "Axis" and "Allies" will be meaningless in this world.

As pointed out before in other threads, the CSA couldnt mantain slavery either economically or politcally if they achieved independence with the help of Britain and France, because both wouldve forced it to change and the future industrilization of the country wouldve made it unecessary to keep...so they wouldnt try to expand anywhere until they sorted their own nation out

[Anaxagoras]

Originally Posted by LostCosmonaut

Also, assuming slavery is gone by this point (I honestly can't see it lasting past about 1900)

The problem is that the Confederate Constitution makes it almost impossible to abolish slavery, even if the majority of people in the Confederacy want to do so.

[jkarr]

Originally Posted by Anaxagoras

The problem is that the Confederate Constitution makes it almost impossible to abolish slavery, even if the majority of people in the Confederacy want to do so.

yes cos the US constitution hasnt being changed at all since its inception, meaning that its completly impossible