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#41
October 17th, 2012, 08:59 PM
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#42
October 17th, 2012, 11:05 PM
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#43
October 19th, 2012, 06:39 PM
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December 5, 1981 LEGNICA – SOVIET NORTHERN GROUP COMMAND AND CONTROL CENTER AND HQ ) Sitting in the siting area outside the operations room, Colonel Glebov's reflected on his life, which was a rather difficult one. Back in Leningrad he had an ailing boy of 10 who might not live to see adulthood or so the doctor at a Moscow specialist clinic told him. Seizures were a mystery, the doctor explained and there was no treatment available in his boy's case. As he waited for his meeting with C. G. Nikolaev, Deputy Chief of the Main Operations Directorate of the Soviet General Staff, Glebov recalled the day when he and Misha traveled to Moscow to see the specialist and then then trip to the largest toy store, right across from the KGB headquarters. An illness of a child can sometimes be bearable if a man has other children. But his wife was no longer the woman she had been when they were young. She seemed always tired and never interested in the idea of having more children. And now Glebov's career, sometimes the only source of hope he had left, was on the line because he failed to capture Walesa. While it was obvious to Glebov that the CIA had been helping the man evade their grasp, excuses were unacceptable with the man he was about to meet. The door opened and an sergeant appeared. “Comrade Colonel, they are ready for you.” The man said. Inside the operations room there were dozens of maps lined on tables and pinned to large display canvasses with dozens of marks, lines, arrows drawn on them. And there were men everywhere moving about, working the teletypes and the phones. At the center of this storm of activity, by a large map table, stood two immovables: General Nikolaev and someone else. Kulikov. Glebov felt his knees weaken when the Marshal looked at him. The man muttered something to Nikolaev, who indicated Glebov come closer. “I must say, Glebov, that we had hoped for better results. But you may still be able to capture your query.” Nikolaev said. And rescue my career, Glebov thought. Nikolaev spoke: “Alright, then. Two Soviet divisions have now surrounded Warsaw, making it impossible for Walesa to slip into one of the Capitalist embassies. So far, intelligence reports that he is not in any one of them, which means that he's still out there, somewhere. Think you can manage to find him?” “Yes, of course, comrade general.” “Do you need more resources, colonel?” Kulikov asked. “Time is of the essence. Comrade Andropov has grown impatient in his wait to chat with the scoundrel.” “No, comrade marshal. I have all the men I need.” “Are you sure, colonel?” Kulikov insisted. “I can assign you more help, as the matter of is great importance. You see, the sooner we can put this American agent on trial in Moscow the better.” “I will accept any help you have in mind, comrade marshal.” Kulikov turned away because one of the men at a teletype has ran up to him, holding a fresh dispatch. The marshal's face turned to ash. “On your way, Glebov!” The marshal bellowed, his hands shaking as he held the dispatch. As Glebov was in the door, he heard the marshal cursing someone's idiocy. “Yebet mat!” the marshal was shouting. As he was walking away from the building that housed the command center center, a Gaz screeched to a halt and an army major leaped out and ran inside. The look of the man's face told Glebov that something very bad indeed had happened. He wondered what. He would not find out for several hours. Inside the command center, the major told Kulikov and Nikolaev that an attempt to arrest the Polish Cardinal Wyszynski had gone disastrously wrong. Despite his failure, many Poles on the list of 5,000 identified by the Polish security organs as key anti-socialist elements and opposition leaders was proceeding well and the prisoners were being gathered at a reeducation camp set up by the Czechoslovak and Hungarian comrades in the south of the country. At 8: 00 AM, Soviet and Polish Army forces arrived at the Primate's residence in Warsaw to arrest him, but the old man refused to leave his residence. A Czechoslovak political officer who was also part of the party grew impatient. When the Cardinal refused to budge, the political officer suddenly struck Cardinal with his sidearm. At first, the Poles were merely agitated, but did nothing. But then, when the Cardinal collapsed, it all started. A Polish major, with apparently nationalist leanings, immediately removed his service pistol and shot the political officer. He then started to give orders to the Polish troops. Some of them began to reach for their Ak-47s. A real shootout then erupted during which the Cardinal was seriously wounded while on the ground. The firefight took several minutes and only ended because the major in command of our men had the clarity of mind to give the order to fall back. After we withdrew, the Poles swarmed the residence, hundreds of them, many carrying tire irons and bricks. The Cardinal was transported by the Polish unit to one of Warsaw's hospitals but died there before entering surgery. It is certain that many Poles now imagine we wanted to kill the Cardinal. Kulikov could not hide his rage. “What was he thinking! This sort of thing could turn this into a shooting war with the Poles.” The aid told him that Hungarian and Czechoslovak comrades were invited by Jaruzelski to share their experience in suppressing subversion and to help run the re-education centers being set up. Kulikov gave orders that Warsaw was to be completely cut off from the rest of the country in the hopes that the news could be contained. But as he did, he knew that they had lost Poland, for sooner or latter the news that the Soviets had killed Wyszynski would leak. Poland then would turn into some sort of an epic disaster for the Soviets, one far worse than Afghanistan. They've made an error after all in coming here. But how could they not? If they let things spin ever more out of control of the Polish comrades, one day Poland would become a capitalist state. Then the entire block would be lost. And then perhaps even the Soviet Union itself, for there were certainly elements in the union that would be heartened by what happened in Eastern Europe and by the apparent weakness of the Soviet state.
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#44
October 19th, 2012, 06:44 PM
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The Soviets did the more pragmatic thing OTL. I think Kulikov just now underlined that.
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#45
October 20th, 2012, 01:25 AM
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Even if the Soviets and other Warsaw Pact forces utterly crush Poland into the ground, kill anything in sight, blow up anything that can be blown up, and steal anything that isn't nailed down on the way out, this is basically a loose-loose for the Soviets.
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#46
October 20th, 2012, 05:43 AM
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I've talked to enough Poles who were in the know then, and every one has agreed: The Poles would have fought, and fought hard. And that includes most of the Polish Army.
That would have been the case at any time in the Cold War, but was especially true after John Paul II's 1979 trip to Poland. It made clear to the Poles just how widespread opposition to the regime really was. It's not that the USSR didn't have the force to subdue Poland. It's what the cost would have been. And the Politburo, at any rate, seemed to realize that.
__________________
___ best regards, Athelstane
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#47
October 20th, 2012, 12:22 PM
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Would Jaruzelski (sp), have realised in teh same way that Hoenecker didn't in 1990?
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#48
October 20th, 2012, 03:04 PM
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Twilight 2000 timeline
Just a little warning, in the old GDW game Twilight 2000 the TL has WWIII start iwth a rebellion in Poland that gets out of hand followed by an eventual rebellion of the East German Army. This results in the West German army getting involved and finally NATO. Once this starts rolling we might be looking at a steadily worsening escalation ladder.
Geon
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#49
October 20th, 2012, 03:20 PM
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__________________
___ best regards, Athelstane
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#50
October 20th, 2012, 04:10 PM
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Even if frontline Warsaw Pact forces don't move, chances are an invasion wouldn't be all that successful if 2nd and 3rd wave units start getting taking out of rotation and thrown into Poland.
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#51
October 20th, 2012, 06:10 PM
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With Reagan in charge, the US is not going to just watch. The first sign of a rebellion in East Germany mightsee NATO tanks heading for Berlin...
(I remember when just before Ceausescu fell it looked like the Hungarians would enter Romania if things seemed to head for a bloodbath.) And there would be a general search for ways to help Poland.
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#52
October 20th, 2012, 06:16 PM
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#54
October 20th, 2012, 06:45 PM
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Last edited by alternatehistorian; October 20th, 2012 at 07:06 PM..
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#55
October 20th, 2012, 07:30 PM
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I like the idea that the first shoots were fired between the Soviets and the Polish Army. If solidarity (who probably would be advised by the Vatican not to) or other anti soviet group shoot first (and some fringe groups would be up to it) it could give Soviets the excuse it is responsibility of "reactionaries" or "CIA agents". But the Polish Army response is national level declaration difficult to debunk. It will create at minimum a serious embarassment for the Politburo ... but it could also resentment in other east European countries even inside their army and even Comunist Party (esp. Hungary and Czechoslovakia)
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My 2 cents, let see where alternatehistorian brings us. BTW great start. Last edited by Dionysius I; October 20th, 2012 at 07:50 PM..
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#56
October 20th, 2012, 07:41 PM
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#57
October 20th, 2012, 09:43 PM
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December 5, 1981 American Embassy, Warsaw John Stokes returned to the embassy in the afternoon. The diplomatic bag was untouched, he told the ambassador, but the Soviets were not letting any planes in or out of Okecie. No wonder, the ambassador thought. There was a rumor going around the city that the Soviets had killed Wyszynski. Now they put a lid over the city while Moscow was trying to figure out how to play this. Land lines and radio were gone, too. The Soviets were jamming everything with mobile electronic warfare stations just outside of the city. In Washington, they would no doubt be going crazy trying to figure out what happened. Moscow The news of the death of the Polish Cardinal was the top item to being discussed by the Politburo. Earlier, in response to the requests from the Americans, Andropov talked with Reagan on the hotline, assuring him that the American embassy in Warsaw was unharmed, as, indeed, was the city itself. It was merely necessary to suspend communications for the sake of public safety. He refused to elaborate what the exact nature of the public safety emergency might have been. It was an unpleasant moment, Andropov thought, as he was leaning back in his chair, because he disliked American arrogance. He almost told Reagan that he should worry about American cities like Miami, where a riot had taken place only last year. Andropov set the thought aside and glanced at the comrades gathered. Gorbachev was a young man who no doubt wanted to be in Andropov's own chair. And he may have the opportunity quite soon, Andropov thought. The tension of the crisis had taken a surprising toll on his 67-year-old frame. He hasn't been feeling well the last two days. But he hoped that it was something that would pass, unless he was being poisoned. “Comrades, we have an enormous problem in Poland in the form of the accidental death of the Primate of Poland.” Andropov said. “We need to allow the Pope into Poland. No doubt, he will make the request to attend the funeral.” Gorbachev said. “Indeed we will, Mikhail. Indeed we shall.” Andropov said, smiling. “We are not monsters.” Andropov's mind had come to life with a vision of a most twisted plot. There was now a way to eliminate the other source of Soviet troubles, the Polish Pope, and it had been a gift of Wyszynski's accidental death: What if the Polish Pope's plane crashes just as it is on the final approach to Okencie? It would be brilliant. Perhaps there would be fog, too. Lots of it, so that the pilot would be forced to rely on instruments alone. Then some meaconing to make his work very hard. With the Pole out of the Vatican, Poland and her problems would no longer have a spokesman of such renown and esteem. He wondered how he could use this brilliant idea. “Reagan can as well, if the Americans make that request.” Andropov said. “It will gives us a perfect opportunity to make a proposal to the Americans. I think that it is clear to everyone here that we cannot stay in Poland forever. If the Americans would be willing to give us economic aid, we would be wiling to leave Poland and let them have it, in fact. Afhanistan, too, for that matter. Neither is really of any use to our long-term interests. Not when it is our survival that is at stake.” No one objected, not even Ustinov, the voice of the military industrial complex. They were all too painfully aware of the true figures about the state of the Soviet economy. They didn't have much of a future unless they could get Western investment and technology. Nor could they, in the end, brutalize Poland into submission. This wasn't the Stalin era. “But why would Reagan suddenly change his hard line anti-Soviet rhetoric. More importantly, why would Haig and other hawks in the administration let him do that?” Ustinov wondered. “Because the only other option is something that Reagan hopes to avoid at all cost, nuclear war. That's what we need to dangle in front of him. And to make that threat believable we need to present ourselves as completely amoral monsters that they think we are.” “But how? What more can we do to make them fear us even more?” “I have an idea.” Andropov said, smiling. * * * The meeting took place several hours latter at the KGB headquarters. The building was nearly abandoned, except for the personal detail that shadowed Andropov. He stood in his office, looking out at the street below, peering into the growing darkness. He noted a few cars and a bus. In the reflection of the window, he saw that the man walked in. Major Valery Mosin was a homosexual and a spy, not that the two were always synonymous, Andropov reflected. For several months now, his file was on his desk, awaiting decision. According to the file, Mosin was a child of the best the Soviet system had to offer: a graduate of MGIMO, where he was recruited by the KGB, he had a nice apartment in Moscow, a Lada but could not find love, it would seem. Things changed after his posting to American, where he served as an aide to the Washington Resident and where he also discovered his true love. His lover, it turned out, was a CIA agent. Andropov had nearly forgotten about the Mosin matter, given the changes that had taken place and the matter of Poland and his growing lack of energy and melancholy. But now Andropov had a perfect way to utilized this traitor. “Comrade Mosi, sit down, please” Andropov said. “Perhaps the major would like some tea?” Andropov walked over to the glittering Samovar and poured himself a cup. Was he being poisoned? The thought returned, a second time since the meeting. Was he? It would explain the sudden spell of weakness and melancholy he had been feeling. Andropov was well aware that there were dozens of poisons that the KGB had developed over the years, compounds that could cause virtually any disease, from diabetes to cancer but remain impossible to trace or detect. “Please, if you would be so kind.” “This is excellent tea from our Indian friends.” Andropov smiled, handing Mosin the cup he just poured. Some told him that sometimes, when he smiled despite his intention to the contrary he came across as a little mad, even deranged. This was the effect he hoped to have on Mosin, who would no doubt run to his handlers, the Samuleson couple at the American embassy. “Aren't you thirsty, comrade Andropov?” “Not at all.” Andropov wnet behind his own desk and sat in the chair. It was an ordinary wooden chair, to the surprise of some. “Now, then, Mosin. I have a special assignment for you, given your excellent work in the covert operations department.” Andropov paused. “This is a matter of utmost importance and requires the highest level of discretion.” “I serve the Soviet Union.” Andropov nearly let a laugh burst from his lips, but controlled himself. “Mosin. The Polish Pope is a problem for us. Were it not for him, we could have a much freer hand in Poland. A decision has been made at the highest levels to permit the Pope to come to Warsaw for the funeral of Wyszynski. Your job, Mosin, is to make sure that the plane carrying the Polish Pope does not get to Warsaw.” “I understand.” Mosin took a sip of the tea, but his hands were shaking gently, and the the cup rattled for a moment against the small saucer. “We could shoot it down.” Mosin said. “It cannot look like anything than a tragic accident.” “The best moment is on final approach, comrade chairman, because the pilot has few options. If we could use meaconing to confuse the pilot, an accidental crash could be created. Of course, the pilot would be able to see through his windows, so that won't really work.” “Unless there is some fog to force him to rely on instruments alone.” “That's brilliant, Comrade Chairman. Yes, but artificial fog is expensive.” “The costs are irrelevant here.” “Begin the work at once.” * * * On his way home, as he was driven in his hand made limousine through the Moscow night, Andropov wondered how long it would be before Mosin contacted his handlers. WASHINGTON The news Mosin related traveled fast indeed. It was cried in the diplomatic pouch by a courier bound on a flight to Berlin, then to Washington. Because it was an emergency dispatch, it made it into the national security briefing the morning of the next day. Last edited by alternatehistorian; October 20th, 2012 at 10:49 PM..
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#59
October 20th, 2012, 10:47 PM
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It's a double bluff. Reagan is the target of this particular operation, not the pope...
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#60
October 20th, 2012, 11:49 PM
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Normally before the POTUS even shows up, you'd have the Secret Service, State Department personnel, and other personnel coordinating through the US Embassy setting up some time before Air Force One even takes off from DC. Any attempts by the Soviets or whoever to set up fog machines would be spotted and reported, or if things looked too dangerous, I doubt the Secret Service, much less the crew of Air Force One, would even try to land. More than likely they turn around and head back to DC or don't allow the President get on at Andrews AFB to begin with. If there was a real danger to Reagan, and seeing as this is after his assassination attempt, if the Secret Service thinks there's a legitimate threat to him, I wouldn't be surprised if they went so far as to physically threaten him into not going if they felt he was in danger or they couldn't guarantee his safety beyond a certain amount of risk.
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