WI: Cuba Invaded and Occupied in the 1960's?

[Emperor Norton I]

Given interest trends, I bumpeth again for a question which hasn't really been addressed:

What would become of Fidel if he is not just killed by shrapnel? Is there anywhere for him to run or hide? Where could he go, or try to go, and what would or could he do?

[Wolfpaw]

Originally Posted by Emperor Norton I

Given interest trends, I bumpeth again for a question which hasn't really been addressed:

What would become of Fidel if he is not just killed by shrapnel? Is there anywhere for him to run or hide? Where could he go, or try to go, and what would or could he do?

He could try and hightail it to Mexico and hide out in a Soviet consulate/embassy.

[John Fredrick Parker]

I have to offer my thoughts here on the older "economic miracle or right-wing dystopia" argument:

1) Cuba was the most developed Latin American nation in 1958. So if they remain so in the 1960's and 70's, that's not necessarily ASB -- it's just an invasion that doesn't cripple them in the long term.

2) Given its population and development, the best comparison for whether political liberalization toward the end of the decade could lead to an economic miracle is really neither South Korea or Germany (which of course, aren't in Latin America), nor Dominica or Central America (which weren't exactly vibrant before the US meddled). Rather I'd say, look to Mexico, Brazil, or Argentina, whose economic rises are real, if somewhat more socially... complex.

(Actually, that brings up a third point -- that economic development and middle class explosion can exist alongside rampantly expanding criminal activity and drug trafficking -- make of all this what you will.)

[Herzen's love-child]

Originally Posted by John Fredrick Parker

(Actually, that brings up a third point -- that economic development and middle class explosion can exist alongside rampantly expanding criminal activity and drug trafficking -- make of all this what you will.)

Which is what we saw happen in Venezuela pre-Chavez. Along with a burgeoning underclass.

[NothingNow]

Originally Posted by 33k7

the Bay of Pigs invasion would have worked a lot in people in his military didn't like the way he was running the country and would have assisted if they see an opportunity not everyone in Cuba supported the revolution maybe 30 to 40%

Sure. Everyone in a position of leadership also knows they're utterly fucked if the right takes power again, and actually, the Bay of Pigs was going to be a disaster for Anti-Communist groups in Miami, as they lacked everything the Cuban military had.

Originally Posted by John Fredrick Parker

1) Cuba was the most developed Latin American nation in 1958. So if they remain so in the 1960's and 70's, that's not necessarily ASB -- it's just an invasion that doesn't cripple them in the long term.

Considering that in the interim you're talking about a full tenth or more of the population either leaving or dying, and a full on invasion, followed by a Guerrilla war, they're going to backslide and how.

[snerfuplz]

You know if guerilla warfare drags on it will become increasingly unpopular in the United States, a la Vietnam. I wonder if public pressure will force the USA to make peace and bring the Communist into a democratic state. That might be a bit much though

[deathscompanion1]

Originally Posted by snerfuplz

You know if guerilla warfare drags on it will become increasingly unpopular in the United States, a la Vietnam. I wonder if public pressure will force the USA to make peace and bring the Communist into a democratic state. That might be a bit much though

Vietnam:
Huge heavily forrested country with thousands of years of history of fighting super powers, which is 3000 miles away. Supported by two powers through a secure border.

Cuba: Small island within 90 miles of the coast of the USA completely cut off from outside support with a large minority commited to supporting the counter revolution.

This could get nasty but it would never be Vietnam level nasty.

[snerfuplz]

Originally Posted by deathscompanion1

Vietnam:
Huge heavily forrested country with thousands of years of history of fighting super powers, which is 3000 miles away. Supported by two powers through a secure border.

Cuba: Small island within 90 miles of the coast of the USA completely cut off from outside support with a large minority commited to supporting the counter revolution.

This could get nasty but it would never be Vietnam level nasty.

All you say is true Washington does have a smaller chain of supply, though that according to my understanding was never truly a problem in Vietnam, while Moscow, if it wants, has a much more difficult time in supplying the Communists in Cuba. Still I would expect some blockade runners to attempt to supply them from sympathetic factions in South America and abroad. However, even when peace is declared I can't really see the war ending and some holdouts, either in some rural area or more likely blending into the city a la Algiers would commit violent acts against American soldiers. If it does lapse into some sort of Algiers situation me thinks the United States might be in a bit of a pickle

[othyrsyde]

I'm no Fidelista, but...

US occupation of Cuba/Mafia back in charge of Havana=economic Latin American powerhouse

JAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJA !

Please stop drinking from the US always equals liberation koolaid and go read a history book on modern Latin America. This is a history site after all, even if alternate.

Some people on this site are so naive it makes me pee my pants in laughter. But thanks, we all do need a good laugh every now and then.

[John Fredrick Parker]

Originally Posted by Herzen's love-child

Which is what we saw happen in Venezuela pre-Chavez. Along with a burgeoning underclass.

That's also a good comparison. (Now that you mention it, in fact -- might Castro be elected Cuban President in the late 1990's...? )

Originally Posted by NothingNow

Considering that in the interim you're talking about a full tenth or more of the population either leaving or dying, and a full on invasion, followed by a Guerrilla war, they're going to backslide and how.

Well you do bring up a good point -- that the level of right-wing dystopia really does depend on how bad the invasion, occupation, and post-invasion gets...

[NothingNow]

Originally Posted by deathscompanion1

Cuba: Large, rugged island within 120 miles of the USA with a small minority commited to supporting the counter revolution, while the majority are very nationalistic if not outright anti-american, and the guerrillas sit on sizable stockpiles of munitions and have practical experience in asymmetric warfare, and a century-long tradition of such warfare.

Fixed that for you.

Also, unlike the Vietnam war, it will be extremely easy to run operations in the US, considering the large Cuban population in many metropolitan areas dating back to 1868, and relative ease of building and deploying Car-bombs, along with the ease of acquiring firearms in the 60s.
So actually, it's not so much Vietnam, as it is Algeria with a lot of serious Jungle thrown in.

[othyrsyde]

Originally Posted by NothingNow

Fixed that for you.

Also, unlike the Vietnam war, it will be extremely easy to run operations in the US, considering the large Cuban population in many metropolitan areas dating back to 1868, and relative ease of building and deploying Car-bombs, along with the ease of acquiring firearms in the 60s.
So actually, it's not so much Vietnam, as it is Algeria with a lot of serious Jungle thrown in.

Didn't even consider the possibility of extensions to US soil. Makes sense, a similar, but limited campaign was launched by Puerto Rican nationalists twice.

[HeavyWeaponsGuy]

Originally Posted by deathscompanion1

Vietnam:
Huge heavily forrested country with thousands of years of history of fighting super powers, which is 3000 miles away. Supported by two powers through a secure border.

Cuba: Small island within 90 miles of the coast of the USA completely cut off from outside support with a large minority commited to supporting the counter revolution.

This could get nasty but it would never be Vietnam level nasty.

Deaths has struck the nail on the head here.

There is no possibility of a "Castro Trail" because of the rather simple geographic fact that Cuba is an island, there is no feeling of a need to tone down US activities for fear of prompting a Chinese intervention like in Korea. Though to be fair, as Snerf just said, Moscow was Vietnam's go-to friend and they had a much harder time of it than we did.

The Castro regime is not fanatically beloved by all Cubans, inevitably invasion by your resident USMC fighters will galvanize some popular support of Castro, but there are plenty of others who will be just as happy to take their chance to knock the communists out for good.

How bad the guerrilla conflict is depends on who is in charge, but suffice to say even an idiot running the show is fighting a winning battle against a regime that will only decline in strength and resources with the passage of time, and with endless reinforcements just a few miles away, the insurgency won't last. This is, of course assuming that the military effort isn't a complete mess, which is a possibility but by no means a requirement. The Cuban conflict would be Easy Mode compared to Vietnam, though it would still be tremendously difficult.

[othyrsyde]

Winning against an insurgency depends on the population's commitment to its cause. Only through 'winning the hearts and minds', exhaustion, or outright genocide will an occupation win.

There are a lot of X factors to consider aside from simple military logistics (not to discount them entirely mind you). Even if the traditional Latin American guerrilla, running around in the mountains in fatigues and toting a scavenged rifle, is defeated, the conflict can be carried on through sabotage, bombings, sniper attacks, and such. The only reliable way to counter a firmly planted and popular insurgency is the utter decimation of the supporting populace.

[NothingNow]

Originally Posted by HeavyWeaponsGuy

Deaths has struck the nail on the head here.

No, no he hasn't.

Originally Posted by HeavyWeaponsGuy

There is no possibility of a "Castro Trail" because of the rather simple geographic fact that Cuba is an island, there is no feeling of a need to tone down US activities for fear of prompting a Chinese intervention like in Korea. Though to be fair, as Snerf just said, Moscow was Vietnam's go-to friend and they had a much harder time of it than we did.

You really don't have the slightest idea how easy it is to smuggle shit in the Gulf and Caribbean do you? On top of that most of the Rum runners are still around, and the introduction of Radar didn't change that much in practice over the intervening thirty or so years. Meanwhile the Cuban Guerillas habitually use American equipment anyway, particularly things like M2 Carbines, Thompson guns, and BARs, so they're just as happy scavenging as they are importing things.

Originally Posted by HeavyWeaponsGuy

The Castro regime is not fanatically beloved by all Cubans, inevitably invasion by your resident USMC fighters will galvanize some popular support of Castro, but there are plenty of others who will be just as happy to take their chance to knock the communists out for good.

Except far you're more likely to kick up widescale support for them. Fidel himself wasn't a proper marxist, being more the ardent Nationalist, and the clumsy, ham fisted operations that the USMC would be running (as this is not the USMC of 1941, but their Retarded nephew,) are practically guaranteed to seriously inflame Anti-American sentiment. Both of these will work to the detriment of the US-backed Counter-revolutionary government, which will be seen as illegitimate by the majority of the populace from day one.

Originally Posted by HeavyWeaponsGuy

How bad the guerrilla conflict is depends on who is in charge, but suffice to say even an idiot running the show is fighting a winning battle against a regime that will only decline in strength and resources with the passage of time, and with endless reinforcements just a few miles away, the insurgency won't last. This is, of course assuming that the military effort isn't a complete mess, which is a possibility but by no means a requirement. The Cuban conflict would be Easy Mode compared to Vietnam, though it would still be tremendously difficult.

Yeah no. There is no easy mode, and no quick victory to be had here. Vietnam didn't include car bombs going off in Downtown DC, and a campaign against US personel at stateside bases, like Homestead, Mayport, Key West and MacDill. All of which are very basic insurgent tactics practiced during the cuban revolution by Urban groups.

[Wolfpaw]

Originally Posted by othyrsyde

Didn't even consider the possibility of extensions to US soil. Makes sense, a similar, but limited campaign was launched by Puerto Rican nationalists twice.

As the son and grandson of two women who were harmed in one of the sporadic Cuban terrorist attacks on American soil, I think things could get much nastier, especially in south Florida and along the Gulf coast. Bombs going off in Miami, New Orleans, Tampa, and New York City would certainly cause a stir, as would an assassination-fraught Havana and stories of our boys getting picked off by nationalist rebels in the Cuban campo.

[ChaosNDiscord]

I've seen a lot of notes about Cuba being made into a US State. Does anyone really think that would happen? It's got a fairly large population of non-white people whose primary language is not English. Does anyone -really- think the US in the 60s or 70s or even today would be welcoming them in with open arms?

[Wolfpaw]

Originally Posted by ChaosNDiscord

I've seen a lot of notes about Cuba being made into a US State. Does anyone really think that would happen? It's got a fairly large population of non-white people whose primary language is not English. Does anyone -really- think the US in the 60s or 70s or even today would be welcoming them in with open arms?

Absolutely not. Americans were opposed to it in 1898, and they'll be opposed to it ever after. Cuba is and has been an independent nation for over fifty years. It is a recognized member of the family of nations, and that cannot be undone without unpalatable hypocrisy.

[ChaosNDiscord]

Sorry for the double, but also, even with a US occupation, Cuba is likely to have a low intensity insurgency for quite some time. Cubans wanted independence. The did not want to be dominated by the USA and they would not be welcoming of a US imposed government, especially one that comes with the return of land to the wealthy landowners and multinational corporations and the forced repayment of losses to companies that were nationalized by the Castroists.

Also once the right wingers seize power and begin murdering former supporters and suspected supporters of the Castro regime that info is going to leak. There will be photographs. There will be a field day in the UN and on the world stage for the Soviets and the Communist Bloc "Americans Support Murder of Women and Children" etc etc. I think what you'll then see is a pretty big swing in Latin America towards the Soviets, especially if they fear blatant American intervention, and if the US sends in the marines, well, that's going to be a huge fear. The USA will lose a ton of prestige and the Soviets are likely to end up with at least a few new allies in the region and quite possibly some forward bases near the US and Caribbean. Which is I believe another reason (aside from fears of sparking a war with the Soviets) that the USA used the CIA and other backdoor methods rather than outright invasion (in general) in Latin America.

[NothingNow]

Originally Posted by Wolfpaw

As the son and grandson of two women who were harmed in one of the sporadic Cuban terrorist attacks on American soil, I think things could get much nastier, especially in south Florida and along the Gulf coast. Bombs going off in Miami, New Orleans, Tampa, and New York City would certainly cause a stir, as would an assassination-fraught Havana.

They'd also hit DC. It's just too big a symbol and too poorly protected not to hit. Especially since it's easy to get all the ingredients for Anfo, and you can fit a good half-ton of that in your average Panel Truck.

Set that off anywhere on the Mall, and you've got one hell of a statement. Especially if you could manage to get it between say the Old Executive Building and the West Wing.