Near-perfect 1914 for the CP. What next ?

[Magnum]

Lets say that, in one of the infinite universes, 1914 goes something like this:

• Admiral Essen brings Sweden into the CP camp
• Romania decides to join on the CP side (though not enthusiastically)
• Ottoman Empire gets its 2 battleships from Britain, but also the Goeben & Breslau and joins the CP
• A-H focuses on Russia first and gains an early victory against ill-prepared Russian troops, whose mobilization was thrown off-balance by the Romanian entry
• The subsequent Russian offensive into Galicia is succesfully halted (thus no destruction of the A-H army)
• French 5th Army is destroyed at Charleroi (nearly happened OTL)
• The Germans draw at the Marne and win the Race to the Sea, also destroying the initial formations of the BEF in the process
• Antwerp and its nitrates are taken by Germany (~OTL)
• Admiral Graf Spee inflicts far more casualties before being defeated
• High Seas Fleet engages the Royal Navy in the North Sea. A narrow tactical victory for the Germans which does however pursuade Bulgaria to join the CP
• Invading Russian armies are destroyed in East Prussia (~OTL)
• French forces attacking into Alasce-Lorrain are soundly defeated (~OTL)
• A combined Austrian-German-Bulgarian invasion defeats Serbia in late 1914. Serbian army fails to escape
• The Germans decide to step up production of merchant subs, particularly those built abroad, in order to get critical goods past the blockade. A lot of orders are placed with US shipyards, giving US companies a stake in Germany's fortunes
• Zimmerman falls down some stairs and breaks his neck
• Pro-CP King Constantine of Greece and the military gain the upper hand over pro-Entente PM Venizelos. Thus no anglo-french troops in Greece, which also trades with the CP

So, starting from here, how would the war go ? Do the CP stand a chance or are the odds still stacked against them ?

[Iserlohn]

A CP victory scenario is almost unavoidable, considering how Russia will drop out most likely in late 1815 thanks to the combined German-Austrian-Swedish-Romanian offensive, which allows Austria to start focusing on Italy while Germany can go ahead and "beat up" France.

The question is how the Entente will be treated by the CP, considering that I'd guess with the Germans entering Paris in Spring 1817...

[Riain]

That's a hell of a lot of good stuff, but in my mind the most important would be winning the Race to the Sea and gaining a good chunk of French coastline.

[Hörnla]

Under such circumstances, Italy might even refrain from attacking Austria-Hungary...

Winning the race to the sea? Does it mean that the Western Front is situated west of Calais/Boulogne?

Would Belgium consider capitulation if it were wholly occupied?

[Grey Wolf]

Russia is even more screwed. It MIGHT be a good thing, if the Grand Dukes can pressurise Nicholas II to make quick and early concessions or it could be a tremendously bad thing if he is a stubborn ass and makes things worse.

Assuming Von Spee's contribution was hitting the Invincibles before they could get out of Stanley, and that the tactical HSF victory brings some British losses, then Britain might get a squadron of Japanese battleships

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

[Riain]

Putting the Western Front at the mouth of the Somme shortens the trench lines which over 4 years reduces wastages. But most importantly it allows the Germans to easily take the war to the British with mining, coastal gunfire and light naval forces. Britain would have to put in a serious effort to defeat this threat in the same way they did to the tiny part of the Belgian coast IOTL, and I have no doubt they would. But it will a major effort that IOTL was directed into the Army both in France and worldwide.

[kalamona]

War goes: Gigantic CP-wank.

Expect jumping ship in ludicrous speed, fearing the last one got screwed the most.

Also:

Originally Posted by Magnum

• Zimmerman falls down some stairs and breaks his neck

Mean, mean

[Max Sinister]

You forgot this: What if they actually took Paris as they had planned, or at least surround it?

[Magnum]

Originally Posted by Iserlohn

A CP victory scenario is almost unavoidable, considering how Russia will drop out most likely in late 1815 thanks to the combined German-Austrian-Swedish-Romanian offensive, which allows Austria to start focusing on Italy while Germany can go ahead and "beat up" France.

The question is how the Entente will be treated by the CP, considering that I'd guess with the Germans entering Paris in Spring 1817...

Unless they invent a time machine, i doubt it.

Originally Posted by Hörnla

Under such circumstances, Italy might even refrain from attacking Austria-Hungary...
Seems reasonable, I guess.

Winning the race to the sea? Does it mean that the Western Front is situated west of Calais/Boulogne?
Yes.

Would Belgium consider capitulation if it were wholly occupied?
I have no idea.

Originally Posted by Grey Wolf

Russia is even more screwed. It MIGHT be a good thing, if the Grand Dukes can pressurise Nicholas II to make quick and early concessions or it could be a tremendously bad thing if he is a stubborn ass and makes things worse.
That might be possible, though I doubt Nicholas II will even contemplate going down that road. I imagine he might take even more direct control like OTL when things were going from bad to worse.


Assuming Von Spee's contribution was hitting the Invincibles before they could get out of Stanley, and that the tactical HSF victory brings some British losses, then Britain might get a squadron of Japanese battleships
Talk about butterflies...

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Originally Posted by Riain

Putting the Western Front at the mouth of the Somme shortens the trench lines which over 4 years reduces wastages. But most importantly it allows the Germans to easily take the war to the British with mining, coastal gunfire and light naval forces. Britain would have to put in a serious effort to defeat this threat in the same way they did to the tiny part of the Belgian coast IOTL, and I have no doubt they would. But it will a major effort that IOTL was directed into the Army both in France and worldwide.

Never thought about this. Always thought the RN had so much stuff that they would shrug off any minor surface engagements. Would it really have that big of an impact on their war effort ?

Originally Posted by kalamona

War goes: Gigantic CP-wank.

Expect jumping ship in ludicrous speed, fearing the last one got screwed the most.

Who do you think will jump ship first ?

Also:



Mean, mean

The guy was an idiot, though one could argue he had a substantial contribution to the good guys winning earlier.

Originally Posted by Max Sinister

You forgot this: What if they actually took Paris as they had planned, or at least surround it?

I figured that would stretch things a bit and I'm not quite sure wether they could or not. Besides, Paris falling has been discussed here a lot. It would have resulted in a political discussion of wethere or not the French gov. was willing and able to fight on. Thats why I put the "near" in the title. I'm curious how you guys think military operations and political developments would have continued.

[miketr]

Originally Posted by Max Sinister

You forgot this: What if they actually took Paris as they had planned, or at least surround it?

Paris was never objective, French field armies where.

There is a lot going on here... Sweden, Bulgaria and Romania joining are game changers. Romania means Russians have to call off attacks into Galacia, depending on timing of entry, and A-H is in better shape. Over all A-H only has 1 front to worry over here.

In west a shorter front but with more of France occupied. German Lines along Marne and Somme Rivers?

All nations were very stubborn in WW1 so I expect that everyone fights on.

Michael

[kalamona]

Originally Posted by Magnum

Who do you think will jump ship first ?

Britain. They could be very pragmatic sometimes...

[Vnix]

does this also include a capture of the Belgian monarch?

[Magnum]

Originally Posted by kalamona

Britain. They could be very pragmatic sometimes...

I dont think it would be in their interest to have a continental hegemon, so, unless the Kaiser agrees to terms that more or less keeps the status quo (which I doubt he would), Britain would, IMHO, keep fighting.

Originally Posted by Vnix

does this also include a capture of the Belgian monarch?

Would it be possible ? What kind of consequences could this have ?

[Vnix]

if it is possible I have no idea, but capturing them would be a significant morale boost and bargaining chip, especially since Belgium is fully occupied. Perhaps Germany could force the King to sign a peace with Germany wherein it'd be another port to get supplies from to Germany.

[kalamona]

Originally Posted by Magnum

I dont think it would be in their interest to have a continental hegemon, so, unless the Kaiser agrees to terms that more or less keeps the status quo (which I doubt he would), Britain would, IMHO, keep fighting.

In this case the continental hegemon already should have considered as a fact. Better cut the losses and recuperate. And advice the allies to do similar - of course after the britons made peace. Next round will come sooner or later.

[Monty Burns]

Originally Posted by kalamona

In this case the continental hegemon already should have considered as a fact. Better cut the losses and recuperate. And advice the allies to do similar - of course after the britons made peace. Next round will come sooner or later.

While this is reasonable, the British won't go for it - not now. Germany would need to score some more victories for that.

The outset presented for 1914 allows for an early peace treaty with limited gains for the CP (Belgian Congo and parts of French central Africa to Germany, free Poland, Finland to Sweden, Bessarabia to Romania, Serbia an Austrian puppet, Macedonia to Bulgaria, some Caucasian territory to the Ottomans). That doesn't make the Germans hegemon of Europe since France and Russia would survive as Great powers hostile to Germany and Britain is unaffected.

The Germans would know that as well, and the losses so far are not enough to start major war weariness in victory. The Germans would want to continue the fight. They are far deeper in France, logistics of France are much more difficult (it's a question to the experts whether France would still be able to hold against the Germans depending on what rail lines and harbours they hold by now) and British support must be expected smaller. Russia is on retreat on all fronts and, as stated before, will break soon. Overall, there's no reason why Italy should join the war on the Allied side (rather the opposite, but neutrality is more likely, providing the Germans even more trade opportunities). Once Russia is out, the Germans will be able to defeat France, my guess is 1916. In that case, Germany will be the hegemon. If the British see that, they'll likely go for negotiations and limited German war gains now.

[yourworstnightmare]

Unrestricted submarine warfare, and the Yanks will be coming.

[Riain]

Magnum, the Royal Navy was friggin massive, but it had abandoned the 2 power standard where the RN would be larger than the next 2 navies combined. Thier target was to be at least 60% larger than the German navy, which they were, indeed they were closer to double in some areas. However the RN had a 'general' maritime strategy, ie they were going to do everything at sea that could be done, whereas Germany had a fleet in being strategy where they would hold the main RN fleet at risk. As such the RN needed to have enough ships on hand every day of the war to defeat the Germans, regardless of refits and the like. In contrast the Germans didn't have to do anything if they didn't want to, and when they did they could take great efforts to ensure that they had as many ships in service and not in refit as possible on that day.

Now that's great when there is only one fighting theatre to gaurd against, but if a second theatre opens up in the Channel because the Germans hold the French side of the narrows then those numbers become wobbly. The RN has to keep the GF destroyers etc up to full strength in case of a fleet action in the North Sea, but also keep 60% more light forces in the Channel than the Germans have stationed there. But the Germans can change those numbers in a single night knowing when and where their HSF will sortie to challenge the GF in the North Sea.

And that doesn't count the longer and more vulnerable cross channel route to the BEF in France or the constriction of shipping which entered London directly via the Channel and Narrows due to regular enemy action.

[stateless_englishman]

Originally Posted by Monty Burns

Finland to Sweden

Not to nitpick, but would Germany want Sweden to gain all of Finland? I would have thought Aland to Sweden and a German monarch on the throne of Finland would be more likely. And more successful in the long run, otherwise the Finns would have spent years trying to work toward independence from the Russian Empire only to be subsumed into Sweden again.

[Vnix]

Another option would be the Åland Islands to Sweden, and a Swedish prince with a German princes on the throne of Finland or vice versa.