China - Eastern partner of the Axis

[Hrvatskiwi]

Originally Posted by stevep

Hrvatskiwi

Was that a typo and you meant Germany?

I have to disagree about the relative threats posed to the allies by Japan and China. The fact that Britain, which was the only real west European power left by this time, still send substantial forces east shows the importance of the IJN. Also it enabled the Japanese to conquer important allied possessions and threaten others.

Even a very stable, rapidly developing and well led China isn't going to offer the same advantages for the Axis. It won't have any real navy so at most it could take Hong Kong and probe at northern Burma, although the terrain there would make any successful invasion bloody difficult, especially while Britain controls the seas and hence can send reinforcements in easily. Furthermore China is likely to be mainly focused on Japan, which will distract it from anything that aids the Germans.

Its unlikely they would be drawn into a war with the Soviets. If they are, then other than cutting the western L-L route through Vladivostok, by cutting the Trans-Siberian at some point they are going to have no effect. Even this is likely to be difficult and costly.

Also, if its strongly nationalistic and right-wing and has close links with the Nazis don't expect their relations with the US to be that good. Especially since their likely to be prompted to take action against western trade interests in China, which includes a lot of US activity. Xenophobia didn't serve China well in the 19thC and it would be pretty disastrous for them here as well.

Steve

Haha, yeah, my bad, I meant Germany, not Japan I would (obviously) disagree about that interpretation of the comparative potential values of China and Japan. I wouldn't call the forces the British sent East 'substantial'. Most forces in Hong Kong, Malaya, Singapore etc. were already there, before the Japanese threat became too obvious. And they were for the most part low-quality forces. In Burma and Malaya, most soldiers were Indian troops, poorly trained and equipped, and frankly, from a British perspective, more expendable than Britons. Their opinion was along the lines of: "well, there's plenty more Indians...". And one battleship, one battlecruiser and four destroyers is not much to send against an enemy with a large navy in the theatre and unchallenged air superiority. It must also be remembered many of the ships aside from the US Navy participating in the Pacific War were Australian or Dutch, rather than British.

The China in this timeline isn't anti-American. Being pro-Nazi doesn't automatically mean anti-American at this point in time. Whilst the Chinese in this TL have already forced out many British traders (with the exception of continued wool trade with the British in Autonomous Tibet), they haven't done anything to American commercial interests, and are unlikely to, unless they were at war with America. America and China's interests don't conflict in the Far East. Also, China will be developing a navy (although I concede it will be of little use until quite far into the future). Besides, China is harder to invade for the USA, or virtually anyone else, than Japan.

[stevep]

Originally Posted by Hrvatskiwi

France soon capitulated, and a pro-Axis neutral regime was established in Vichy, in the South of France. The Vichy regime inherited the French Fleet, which was seized by Germany on 1st July.

Meanwhile in Asia, the Chiang Kai-Shek regime took advantage of the breakdown of the French war effort by moving to occupy Indochina. The KMT support the VNQDD (Viet Nam Quoc Dan Dang), often colloquially known as the "Vietnamese Koumintang". Having discussed the possibility of Britain taking control of the area after a French defeat with the Germans and Italians, it was decided that China, a non-combatant, wouldn't recognise the Vichy Regime, appearing sympathetic to the Allied cause, and occupy Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos as a means to "keep the peace" and, in Cambodia's case especially, "protect against likely Siamese aggression". The three nations were initially administrated as a joint "Indochinese Provisional Government" led by Phan Boi Chau.

Hrvatskiwi

That is a big butterfly. How much of the French fleet is captured rather than withdrawing overseas as OTL? Also is this a breach of the armistice conditions or are they different TTL?

Who's involved in this discussion and decision making? It seems a bit unclear. Also why is China thought of as sympathetic to the allied cause? Not to mention the traditional relations between China and the Vietnamese.

Steve

[Hrvatskiwi]

Originally Posted by stevep

Hrvatskiwi

That is a big butterfly. How much of the French fleet is captured rather than withdrawing overseas as OTL? Also is this a breach of the armistice conditions or are they different TTL?

Who's involved in this discussion and decision making? It seems a bit unclear. Also why is China thought of as sympathetic to the allied cause? Not to mention the traditional relations between China and the Vietnamese.

Steve

Patience, grasshopper. I'll be sure to edit the post tomorrow to make the discussion and decision-making clearer. But over here its 12:20am.

[stevep]

Originally Posted by Hrvatskiwi

Haha, yeah, my bad, I meant Germany, not Japan I would (obviously) disagree about that interpretation of the comparative potential values of China and Japan. I wouldn't call the forces the British sent East 'substantial'. Most forces in Hong Kong, Malaya, Singapore etc. were already there, before the Japanese threat became too obvious. And they were for the most part low-quality forces. In Burma and Malaya, most soldiers were Indian troops, poorly trained and equipped, and frankly, from a British perspective, more expendable than Britons. Their opinion was along the lines of: "well, there's plenty more Indians...". And one battleship, one battlecruiser and four destroyers is not much to send against an enemy with a large navy in the theatre and unchallenged air superiority. It must also be remembered many of the ships aside from the US Navy participating in the Pacific War were Australian or Dutch, rather than British.

There were reinforcements being sent even as war began and for a nation as hard pressed as Britain something like 15% of the front line capital ship isn't a small proportion. In mid 42, despite those losses another 4-6 capital ships and several carriers were sent east. Along with extensive numbers of ground and air units, which continued throughout the war.

Not to mention as you say after mid-42 the Pacific conflict was mainly carried by the US. Which tied up a hell of a lot of forces and resources that would have been available for the war against Germany. Again most of those aren't going to be needed in a war against China as it will be even more a case of Europe 1st.

The allies aren't going to lose Malaya or the DEI in TTL, which will help the non-American elements of the alliance a lot. There might be a front in Burma but logistics will make it very difficult for the Chinese to do a lot. The US isn't going to have the embarrassment of the Philippines or the drain of supporting large US and allied forces across an huge area of the Pacific and Far East. Nor will there be vast resources sent to China in TTL by the very expensive hump.

As well in this situation, when war comes to the east you could see Japan ending up as an 'allied' power and getting a slice of the spoils.

The China in this timeline isn't anti-American. Being pro-Nazi doesn't automatically mean anti-American at this point in time. Whilst the Chinese in this TL have already forced out many British traders (with the exception of continued wool trade with the British in Autonomous Tibet), they haven't done anything to American commercial interests, and are unlikely to, unless they were at war with America. America and China's interests don't conflict in the Far East. Also, China will be developing a navy (although I concede it will be of little use until quite far into the future). Besides, China is harder to invade for the USA, or virtually anyone else, than Japan.

If its hard right wing and nationalistic, even if not directly dependent on trade and support from Germany, then its going to have markedly worse relations with the US even before it attacks anywhere else. For all Roosevelt's ambivalence about Britain seizing British interests in China will go down poorly because it sets a dangerous precedence, not to mention it means Britain has less to sell to the US. Ditto presumably with other non-German trade interests.

China doesn't have the technological and industrial base to match Japan at this point, let along any of the greater powers. Nor, even with some drastic improvements, does it really have the organisational structure and unity. As such I think you're vastly over-estimating its ability to resist invasion, let alone its ability to project power enough to seriously aid Germany against any opponents.

Steve

[forget]

What is the state of chinese airforce?
Can it mass produce cheap air craft at low cost (like the USSR) or has there been a concentration on high quality?
The german war effort is seeming to go better than OLT at the moment.
Leaves a fan wondering just how much has chinese trade boosted the german war production in quality and quantity of ships and tanks in comparison to OLT.
The state of Italian relations with Nationalist china?

[Hrvatskiwi]

bumping my own tl, to bring attention to the fact that the newest update is at the bottom of the second page. Any comments or constructive criticism are welcome.

[RadioSilence]

I like the idea for the TL, but, as others are pointing out, China doesn't seem to offer much benefit for the Axis. It has no more hope of helping Germany out against the USSR than Japan did, and can't be expected to fight the Allies with any sort of success. The only reason I could see Hitler wanting China as an ally is for long-term considerations. Given that the Nazis were less pragmatic and more about following some loony grand plans, this isn't actually so implausible. However, would it help the RoC that much? After 1939, Germany won't be sending any supplies to China anymore, except through Russia, and after 1941 (or whenever they decide to attack the USSR) even that link will be severed.

[lycan]

I've often been a fan of AH; thought I'd give this scenario a try. I hope it's not too ASB.

One possible PoD involves the skirmish between Japan and the Soviets at Nomanhan or Khalkin Gol. For this timeline, there's no quick armistice. Instead the Soviets continue advancing into Manchuria much as they did in OTL a few years later. As in OTL they plunder Manchuria's industries, but here they use these to beef up their own Trans-Ural factories. When the Germans launch Barbarossa, the Soviets have to withdraw, but by this time they've given Mao's forces enough captured Japanese weapons for them to take on the Japanese. The Communists make steady gains against the Japanese, who were both overextended and suffered extensive losses from the Soviets. The communist advance is stopped just short of the Yangzte River, where Japanese warships provide fire support to Japanese Army and landing forces.

Because of the losses suffered from the Soviet invasion, Japan's rulers decide to put off attacking the United States. Yamamoto does, however, successfully defeat the British Navy in the Pacific and gain control of the Dutch East Indies. As a result of his triumphs he is made Japan's prime minister.

In his new position Yamamoto declares the Army's involvement in China to be an unmitigated disaster, and also declares null and void Japan's membership in the Tripartite Pact. It is at this point that the Nazis resume sending advisers to the Kuomintang, now governing from Chongqing. Unlike the West, Germany has no problem with Chiang Kai-Shek sitting on the sidelines while the Japanese and Communist forces battle.

[RadioSilence]

Bump for update and more attention in general.

[General_Finley]

really cool TL so far, color me subscribed

[Whanztastic]

Just wondering/making sure people've seen Chiang Kai-Shek goes to Germany.

It was aborted before it got deep into the war but just to compare with a similar timeline.

Keep it up!

[Bavarian Raven]

just read through this, cant wait to read more

[Urban fox]

Originally Posted by Hrvatskiwi

Can you cite any sources for "half-million Red Army troops in Mongolia?" I'm pretty sure it wasn't that much. The Mongolian population was only approx. 1 million. A Soviet OOB would be useful. I'll go search for it now.

Total Soviet troops in the Far East numbered well over 500,000 that is a well known fact. Not all in Mongolia true, but for the purposes of this thread it amounts to the same thing. To say nothing of the fact the U.S.S.R had a lot of influence in East Turkestan.

But on the point, a competent China is a superior geopolitical advantage to Japan. In a war against the USSR, China's manpower is an advantage, and it threatens Soviet industry beyond the Urals, because the Soviets can only put it relatively close to the Trans-Siberian railway, where it's relatively vulnerable. The only problem is that the Japanese have Manchuria, blocking any attack into Primorye. And of course the issues with infrastructure in Central Asia, and Soviet presence in Dzungaria.

Threaten how? Throwing wave after wave of men at the vastly inferior (vis-a-vis the Red Army) IJA resulted in crushing defeats and collapse of morale on the Chinese side. And no-one wants to get thrown into battle practically unarmed against an opponent with massed artillery, tanks & a working air-force.

No amount of handwavum ITTL's time-frame will turn China from shambolic, corrupt basket-case into serious military power. Having a crypto-fascist government wont help matters. The KMT was Fascist/nationalist OTL, and functioned about was well as other governments of that type I.E badly.

[Hrvatskiwi]

*Just as a sidenote before the update, IRL's VNQDD wasn't particularly numerous by 1941. In this timeline, however, the VNQDD is a bit more socialist leaning than OTL, but with respect to the traditions of the Vietnamese peasants. The biggest weakness of the VNQDD in real life (in my opinion) was that it's support base was very small, being largely limited to the tiny Vietnamese middle class. Also, the Yen Bai Mutiny was never carried out, so there was less repression by the French authorities.

Excerpt from "The Foreign Policy of the Zhonghua Minzu" By Cecil B. Currey

The occupation of French Indochina by the Chinese military allowed the ascent of the Viet Nam Quoc Dan Dang to government. The VNQDD, which had modelled itself on the Chinese Kuomintang, was one of the two forefront nationalist groups in Vietnam, along with the Indochinese Communists. During the 1930s, the VNQDD had steadily accumulated power, particularly in Annam, by shrewdly utilising the French colonial government. Whilst their policies became increasingly geared towards the peasantry, and their propaganda glorified the rustic, traditional life of the Vietnamese peasant, the VNQDD also gained some material support from the French authorities, who viewed the VNQDD as an asset to be utilised against the Indochinese Communists. Whilst documentation of the French colonial authorities show an intention to arrest and execute the leadership of the VNQDD when the Communists had been satisfactorily dealt with, the capture of Paris by the German armies in 1940, and the subsequent military occupation of Indochina by China ensured that this was never to come to pass. The government installed by the Chinese, the Dong Minh Hoi, or Viet Nam Revolutionary League proved to be incompetent. The leaders of the Dong Minh Hoi had no experience in governance, and whilst low-level bureaucrats were represented well in the VNQDD, the Dong Minh Hoi was marred by corruption and incompetence. Chinese troops occupied airstrips and major towns, with French colonial troops and police keeping law and order. The Chinese troops were increasingly replaced by Vietnamese recruits, although the Indochinese Air Force remained dominated by Chinese pilots and air marshals until after the war. Militarily, whilst most operations of the Indochinese, and later Vietnamese, military included Chinese, Vietnamese AND French colonial troops, they were commanded by Vietnamese officers. There were many Chinese advisors, however, who had differing levels of influence.

By late 1941, the Indochinese Federation was split up into Kampuchea, Laos and Viet Nam. Anti-insurgency campaigns in Lao continued to be dominated by Vietnamese and Chinese, whilst Kampuchea was fairly pacific and law and order was maintained by Khmer troops and gendarmes. By late 1943, these were joined by Chinese sailors based in Cam Ranh Bay.

[Hrvatskiwi]

Excerpt from "Flying Tigers and Sea Dragons: Chinese Naval and Air Development 1934-1947" By Ivan Timokhovich & Dan van der Vat

The increased industrial base developed with German assistance and investment in Chinese heavy industry proved vital to the development of indigenous capabilities for the production of warplanes. Whilst the Chinese manufactured their own aircraft, they produced relatively few indigenous designs by 1942, when they entered the war. Instead, the Chinese aircraft were primarily of German design. The fighter squadrons of the Chinese Air Force were primarily composed of Messerschmidt Bf 109s and variants of the Focke-Wulf Fw 190, which small numbers of Heinkel He 112s, purchased and shipped from Germany in the Spring of 1936. Due primarily to budget restraints, as well as concerns on the potential usefulness of heavy fighters, the Chinese decided not to adopt twin-engine fighters such as the Bf 110. In regards to bombers, the Chinese generally used Italian Fiat Br.20s, as well as Junkers Ju 86s, Ju 88s and Dornier Do 217s. Henschel Hs 129s and Junkers Ju 87 Stukas were utilised as ground-attack aircraft to support Chinese troop columns. Of note is the Rogožarski Ikarus IK-3, which was unique in that it was the only widely-used Chinese-operated aircraft that wasn't of German, Italian or Chinese origin. The IK-3 was infact an aircraft produced in the Kingdom of Yugoslavia. The IK-3, whilst generally considered a less effective aircraft than the Bf 109s, were easier to handle, and was primarily flown by inexperienced pilots. The IK-3 proved competent in it's role as an interceptor, scoring a number of kills on Japanese and Soviet bomber aircraft. The German invasion of the Soviet Union, however, blocked trade of technologies between Germany and China. As a result, the Chinese started fielding their own aircraft designs. Whilst the Chinese design bureaus had been operating since the early 1930s, their work prior to 1939 had primarily been in the modification of German and Italian aircraft designs. By late 1940 and early 1941, several of these designs had become available to the Chinese military. The primary fighter aircraft of the Chinese Air Force was the Chu Y-3 'Feilong'. This fighter was introduced in mid-1942, and was a modern single-engine fighter. It proved very maneuverable, with a fairly long range for a single-seat fighter, and had a high altitude ceiling, but lacked speed and was only moderately armoured. To increase combat-effectiveness, it was equipped with four 30mm cannons, and two MG 131 13mm .cal machine guns. These fighters operated both as interceptors and as cover for the bombers of the National Revolutionary Air Fleet (NRAF). The primary medium bomber of the NRAF was the satisfactory Wong W-18 'Fengniao'. The Fengniao was designed for robustness and range, and required drop tanks to be equipped in order to stop them from having a small bomb load. The Fengniao was almost always accompanied by fighter escort after some initial unaccompanied sorties resulted in high losses. The most popularly known of all Chinese aircraft, the Changzuo Q-7 'Baohuo', often known colloquially as the 'Sino-Stuka', due to the shared inverted gull wings and air siren. Additionally, the Baohuo shared with the Stuka innovative dive brakes, ensuring recovery from dives. The Baohuo differed in several minor characteristics, but it's most significant difference was that it lacked the fixed undercarriage of the Ju 87. This allowed better flight performance, but meant that it was only capable of landing on proper runways, somewhat limiting its effectiveness in more rugged regions.

[Hrvatskiwi]

Opinions? filler

[Hrvatskiwi]

Bumping. I'd like to know if anyone is interested in this thread still, and whether people think what I've wrote is plausible.

[Shaby]

Frankly, I feel the time frame is much too fast. Granted the absence of Japanese troops would probably make their industry stronger, but still. Would they be able to get that far as having indigenously produced airplanes by 1940?

[CoomerREC7]

Originally Posted by Shaby

Frankly, I feel the time frame is much too fast. Granted the absence of Japanese troops would probably make their industry stronger, but still. Would they be able to get that far as having indigenously produced airplanes by 1940?

I agree with that, but in that the Chinese could produce some indigenously built aircraft, they aren't going to be making a whole lot of them. Same with any automobiles and tanks. China may have a better overall industry, but it's nowhere near being able to produce a lot of aircraft or vehicles.

[Hrvatskiwi]

Fair enough. Admittedly I've tried quite hard to push development to meet time constraints, in a way which is probably fairly unlikely (though I don't think impossible), but I excuse that somewhat considering all the unlikely things that happened in OTL. But remember that in this the POD isn't the Marco Polo Bridge incident, it's back in 1933 and 34. So its 6 years of intense development, think Stalin's 5-year plans Lite. I understand you guys' sentiment, however.