What if Germany didn't attack Poland.

[Clandango]

Do the staged attacks by Himmler still happen? Whatever way things go, it would be interesting to see how the Soviets would react to the turn of events. Perhaps Poland is more of a buffer state now and the Germans move into puppetizing Lithuania by control of their exports and imports through Memel, as well as supporting Lithuanian claims to the Vilnius region. Something with Slovakia should also probably come up. If you want to be realistic though Germany goes bankrupt.

[MSZ]

Originally Posted by Clandango

Do the staged attacks by Himmler still happen? Whatever way things go, it would be interesting to see how the Soviets would react to the turn of events. Perhaps Poland is more of a buffer state now and the Germans move into puppetizing Lithuania by control of their exports and imports through Memel, as well as supporting Lithuanian claims to the Vilnius region. Something with Slovakia should also probably come up. If you want to be realistic though Germany goes bankrupt.

Both Slovakia and Lithuania had been pro-German since their foundation in 1939 and 1918 respectively. Didn't stop Germany from taking Memel and ignore Lithuania's claims to Vilnus. Slovakia is slightly different, Hitler did allow it regain territories lost in 1939 after the warand even offered more, but Tiso refused. And there is nothing proving that he would stand up for Slovakia if the war hasn't happened. Lithuania would most likely agree to become a puppet if Germany demanded that, Slovakia OTOH would likely realize the downsides of German occupation and try to do something about, though there wasn't realisticaly anything it could do. So I doubt anything would change unless the Germans decided that itis time to pack their bags and leave. I don't see a massive uprising, or even anything akin to the 1944 uprising occuring.

[Clandango]

Originally Posted by MSZ

Both Slovakia and Lithuania had been pro-German since their foundation in 1939 and 1918 respectively. Didn't stop Germany from taking Memel and ignore Lithuania's claims to Vilnus. Slovakia is slightly different, Hitler did allow it regain territories lost in 1939 after the warand even offered more, but Tiso refused. And there is nothing proving that he would stand up for Slovakia if the war hasn't happened. Lithuania would most likely agree to become a puppet if Germany demanded that, Slovakia OTOH would likely realize the downsides of German occupation and try to do something about, though there wasn't realisticaly anything it could do. So I doubt anything would change unless the Germans decided that itis time to pack their bags and leave. I don't see a massive uprising, or even anything akin to the 1944 uprising occuring.

I wasn't suggesting it would be done for their benefit, besides which the Germans threatened to allow Slovakia to be partitioned between Hungary and Poland if they did not declare independence form Czechoslovakia.

[Devolved]

Germany was already having to cut back on its rearmament program in January 1939 because their economy was running into trouble.

If Germany is to win the war they HAVE TO strike in 1938/39 after that France and Britain become too strong.

[Perkeo]

AFAIK a Nazi-Polish alliance was actually considered in spring 1939, something like: You give us the corridor and get Ukraine in return. That scenario really gives me a cold shiver, because IMO this is a scenario that the Nazis could actually win: Against the Sowjets, it is a lot easier to find a pretense for the aggression, since Stalin is already marked as the bad guy, and even if they don't buy it, France and Britain will think twice about supporting a counterattack that puts large parts of eastern Europe under Sowjet control. IMO they might well consider a successful Nazi-Polish eastern expansion the lesser evil.

[MSZ]

Originally Posted by Perkeo

AFAIK a Nazi-Polish alliance was actually considered in spring 1939, something like: You give us the corridor and get Ukraine in return. That scenario really gives me a cold shiver, because IMO this is a scenario that the Nazis could actually win: Against the Sowjets, it is a lot easier to find a pretense for the aggression, since Stalin is already marked as the bad guy, and even if they don't buy it, France and Britain will think twice about supporting a counterattack that puts large parts of eastern Europe under Sowjet control. IMO they might well consider a successful Nazi-Polish eastern expansion the lesser evil.

Considered by who? This is a story which flies around, regarding one of Goring's visits to Poland when he suggested something akin to this, saying "the Black Sea is a sea as well". But nobody in Poland even thought of it as a real possibility, and the concept wasn't popular in Berlin. Besides, it would be stupid for Poles to agree since the Ukraine isn't something the Germans can give them - they would have to fight for it, while in the meantime being under complete German domination, without a guarantee that a Ribbentrop-Molotov type peace wouldn't be reached if the war went sour for the Germans.

[Asharella]

Originally Posted by aktarian

War looked imminent over CS year before yet Hitler pushed for Sudets anyway. Just because it looked like it will mean war doesn't mean Hitler will back down.

That's a neat way to avoid my question.

It still leaves me wondering what would have happened if instead of invading Poland in 1939, Germany had invaded Hungary. Would Britain and France have declared war on Germany or not?

Is it possible that Hitler could have decided to not have Poland be next on his list? Well of course it is. After all he had done other things before he invaded Poland in OTL. So it's not totally ASB to have a POD where his decision is to focus somewhere else. That doesn't mean he's given up on Poland. It just means he's making the same decision he made with Czechoslovakia, go for another country with large number of Germans in it at that time.

[MSZ]

Originally Posted by Asharella

Is it possible that Hitler could have decided to not have Poland be next on his list? Well of course it is. After all he had done other things before he invaded Poland in OTL. So it's not totally ASB to have a POD where his decision is to focus somewhere else. That doesn't mean he's given up on Poland. It just means he's making the same decision he made with Czechoslovakia, go for another country with large number of Germans in it at that time.

After breaking Munich, it didn't really matter against who Hitler would go: he would find resistance from every direction. Attack on Hungary would be viewed in the same way as an attack on Yugoslavia or Poland, regardless of official guarantees. At that time Britain and France simply couldn't accept Germany getting any stronger by gobling up additional countries. Besides, attack on Hungary means an attack on Poland, the two had their own treaties to guarantee that.

[Asharella]

Originally Posted by MSZ

After breaking Munich, it didn't really matter against who Hitler would go: he would find resistance from every direction. Attack on Hungary would be viewed in the same way as an attack on Yugoslavia or Poland, regardless of official guarantees. At that time Britain and France simply couldn't accept Germany getting any stronger by gobling up additional countries. Besides, attack on Hungary means an attack on Poland, the two had their own treaties to guarantee that.

Thanks. I looked for information on the status of Hungary at that time on treaty obligations, but couldn't find any information.

Had Britain and France made formal agreements that they'd stand with Poland? I thought they had but I'm not sure. If they had, did they also do that for Hungary? Do you think Poland would have declared war on Germany if Germany invaded Hungary but didn't invade Poland?

[MSZ]

Originally Posted by Asharella

Thanks. I looked for information on the status of Hungary at that time on treaty obligations, but couldn't find any information.

Had Britain and France made formal agreements that they'd stand with Poland? I thought they had but I'm not sure. If they had, did they also do that for Hungary? Do you think Poland would have declared war on Germany if Germany invaded Hungary but didn't invade Poland?

France had a mutual protection pact signed with Poland since 1921, the UK and Poland had one since 1939 (technically, the British guarantee for Poland was mutual). I'm not sure if Hungary ratified the Warsaw Accord treaty, but it doesn't really matter in my opinion - while Poland wasn't eager to see Hungary involving itself in war, it would stand with it, regardless of official treaties.

To prove the point: an extract from the meeting between Chamberlain and Beck on April 5 1939:

Originally Posted by Neville Chamberlain and Jozef Beck

Suppose that Hitler had a plan for action against Hungary by a certain date and had accumulated overwhelming forces on her frontiers. He would start a campaign about the grievances of the German inhabitants and how the
Hungarians could not keep order. He might then send for the Regent or the Prime Minister, as he had sent for M. Hacha, and say he could not stand it any longer and that if Hungary wished to live in peace she would have to accept protection from the Reich. If she refused, he would march in or bomb Budapest. It was true that Hungary might be different from Czecho-Slovakia, but suppose that the Hungarian Government said they would not agree, what would happen then? He was assuming that Hungary would not willingly agree to a protectorate and that it would have to be imposed on her by force.

M. Beck said that if Hungary found herself in that position, and if she showed a disposition to defend herself, he himself thought that Poland would support her.

The Prime Minister said he assumed that in that event France would have no treaty obligation to come to Poland's assistance.

M. Beck agreed that this was so.

In other words, Poland was ready and willing to assist Hungary against Germany regardless of France's stance. Note that this was said during negotiations of the British guarantee - Poland had to look tough to get it and assumed that France and Britain would come its aid, as they have stated it numerous time that they concidered German expanion in any direction equally unacceptable.

[aktarian]

Originally Posted by Asharella

That's a neat way to avoid my question.

It still leaves me wondering what would have happened if instead of invading Poland in 1939, Germany had invaded Hungary. Would Britain and France have declared war on Germany or not?

I didn't avoid it. I said choosing not to invade Poland isn't something Hitler would do because he'd be faced with various defence guarantees.

Originally Posted by Asharella

Is it possible that Hitler could have decided to not have Poland be next on his list? Well of course it is. After all he had done other things before he invaded Poland in OTL. So it's not totally ASB to have a POD where his decision is to focus somewhere else. That doesn't mean he's given up on Poland. It just means he's making the same decision he made with Czechoslovakia, go for another country with large number of Germans in it at that time.

Prior to invading Poland he "brought back" Germans living on the other side of the border plus Anschluss. Poland is much more logical choice fro his perspective than anything else.

[allegro6]

"Poland is much more logical choice fro his perspective than anything else."

Actually, the Nazi military machinery also occupied (de jure) the 'free state of Danzig' and I think that can also make sense. Let's say Danzig gets occupied and Poland declares war against Nazi Germany (because Poland itself has troupes in the harbor). Would France declare war on Nazi Germany?

[Perkeo]

Originally Posted by Perkeo

AFAIK a Nazi-Polish alliance was actually considered in spring 1939, something like: You give us the corridor and get Ukraine in return. That scenario really gives me a cold shiver, because IMO this is a scenario that the Nazis could actually win: Against the Sowjets, it is a lot easier to find a pretense for the aggression, since Stalin is already marked as the bad guy, and even if they don't buy it, France and Britain will think twice about supporting a counterattack that puts large parts of eastern Europe under Sowjet control. IMO they might well consider a successful Nazi-Polish eastern expansion the lesser evil.

Originally Posted by MSZ

Considered by who? This is a story which flies around, regarding one of Goring's visits to Poland when he suggested something akin to this, saying "the Black Sea is a sea as well". But nobody in Poland even thought of it as a real possibility, and the concept wasn't popular in Berlin.

I just said it was considered an wondered WI it would have been considered more seriously. I do know it wasn't IOTL.

Originally Posted by MSZ

Besides, it would be stupid for Poles to agree since the Ukraine isn't something the Germans can give them - they would have to fight for it, while in the meantime being under complete German domination, without a guarantee that a Ribbentrop-Molotov type peace wouldn't be reached if the war went sour for the Germans.

It would be stupid for Poles to give territorial concessions in advance, but that's not what I suggested. There are many other options, like:

- Slowakia becomes Polish when Danzig becomes German further exchanges later.
- Poland trades Lithunia rather than Ukraine against the corridor
- No changes th status quo until the Ukraine is actually conquered
- Germany doesn't get the corridor at all, accepting that this is the price for the "Lebensraum".

[MSZ]

Originally Posted by Perkeo

I just said it was considered an wondered WI it would have been considered more seriously. I do know it wasn't IOTL.

IMHO, if it would be more concidered and given more thought, the conclusions would be the same as OTL. At best a "Danzig for eastern Locarno" treaty might be pulled off, with a clause on minority rights and a transit tunnel under Pomeralia, maybe even joining the Anti-Comintern Pact (with France accepting that and not concisering it impeaching the Polish-French Alliance). But going together with Germany eastwards is just too implausible. The Poles were among the first nation on planet Earth to realize that in any Russo-German conflice, any "liberation army" would end up being the "occupation army" of the winner. And they didn't want to be occupied.

Originally Posted by Perkeo

It would be stupid for Poles to give territorial concessions in advance, but that's not what I suggested. There are many other options, like:

- Slowakia becomes Polish when Danzig becomes German further exchanges later.
- Poland trades Lithunia rather than Ukraine against the corridor
- No changes th status quo until the Ukraine is actually conquered
- Germany doesn't get the corridor at all, accepting that this is the price for the "Lebensraum".

This assumes Poland was interested in territorial expansion, which it simply wasn't. No point going into the details of why the above mentioned aren't too plausible (unless you want my opinion), Poland simply didn't want any war at all, and any alliance with anyone giving it that would be turned down. The best Germany can offer is an eastern Locarno, guarantee of all Poland's borders and trying to use Warsaw as the place for forming a general Franco-German-Polish alliance in case of war with the USSR - and not demand something outrages in return. Option four of those you posted is the closest possible, but that would still depend on where that Lebensraum is.

[Clandango]

Originally Posted by Perkeo

I just said it was considered an wondered WI it would have been considered more seriously. I do know it wasn't IOTL.



It would be stupid for Poles to give territorial concessions in advance, but that's not what I suggested. There are many other options, like:

- Slowakia becomes Polish when Danzig becomes German further exchanges later.
- Poland trades Lithunia rather than Ukraine against the corridor
- No changes th status quo until the Ukraine is actually conquered
- Germany doesn't get the corridor at all, accepting that this is the price for the "Lebensraum".

The threat to split the Slovaks between the Hungarians and Poles if historical but probably just a German scare tactic. Agreeing to get Poland's own port modernized quickly as well as exchanging a bit of the population in the Silesian and Corridor areas might also have defused things a bit, so long as Hitler wasn't there to push things.

[Octospire]

Originally Posted by Perkeo

AFAIK a Nazi-Polish alliance was actually considered in spring 1939, something like: You give us the corridor and get Ukraine in return. That scenario really gives me a cold shiver, because IMO this is a scenario that the Nazis could actually win: Against the Sowjets, it is a lot easier to find a pretense for the aggression, since Stalin is already marked as the bad guy, and even if they don't buy it, France and Britain will think twice about supporting a counterattack that puts large parts of eastern Europe under Sowjet control. IMO they might well consider a successful Nazi-Polish eastern expansion the lesser evil.

This is a very interesting scenario especially if the Polish agree to the invasion of France. A German-Polish alliance with that level of manpower could of not only crushed the French in the Battle of France but given the Nazi's the much needed manpower boost needed for the invasion of the USSR.

After a bit of googling the rough estimates I got for the populations of Poland and Germany in 1939 were:

Poland: 34 Million
Germany: 80 Million

Thats a 42.5% increase in manpower that may of been able to give the Nazi's the edge on the Eastern Front.

Also with Poland being a member of the Axis they could of potentially influenced the Nazi's policy's towards the people of the Soviet Union if afterall parts of the USSR were to become part of Poland's territory. If the German-Polish forces came into the Ukraine as liberators and raised an army to fight Stalin instead of the raping and pillaging the Nazi's actually did the fight on the Eastern front goes from being the Nazi's having a slight advantage due to extra Polish manpower to a complete rout in favour of German-Polish forces.

With the millions of soldiers of the Ukraine and Belorussia (and the hearts and minds of the liberated population of the USSR) on their side a German-Polish could of crushed the Soviet forces at places like Stalingrad and Moscow especially if there was mass defections by Soviet soldiers who were not ethnc Russians.

[Rich Rostrom]

Originally Posted by HMS Warspite

For Germany in the late 30's, war was a certain thing, basically due to the ending of the Great War, which had pointed at Germany as sole innisiator of that conflict in the Treaty of Versailles and punished Germany severely as a result. This alone was more than enough reason for the German people and not only the politicians to set things back to more accaptable standards (in a German point of view), meaning the recapture of lost territories and the punishing of the "Evil" Entente powers of the Great War, as well as the equally evil Communist USSR, which was seen as a serious threat to the world.

Rubbish. The German people knew quite well what had happened in 1914-1918. They had marched off to war with the Kaiser and his generals telling them victory was certain and would be quick.

But there was no quick victory, only gigantic slaughters that killed over 2M German soldiers. The German army reached the outskirts of Paris, and knocked out Russia. But even then victory was impossible.

By 1918 the people were starving, and the army collapsed under overwhelming Allied attack - as did all of Germany's allies. (The dolchstosslegende was a stick to beat the Social Democrats.)

The war was a colossal disaster for Germany.

Hardly anyone in Germany wanted to try it again. The professionals of the General Staff looked at the national resources and geopolitical situation, and couldn't see any way to do better a second time. The Social Democrats and Communists were opposed to war on principle. The business elite would have to pay for a war. And most people were afraid that aerial bombing would destroy everything. (The original expectations for aerial bombing were greatly exaggerated; British civil defense authorities estimated more air-raid casualties for the first week of hostilities than Britain actually suffered in the entire war.)

Without Hitler to drag them into, the German people would never have started a war.

Germany suffered more war dead, proportionately, than Britain. And Britain was so traumatized that its intelligentsia became largely pacifist. ("This House will not fight for King and Country.")

[Zireael]

There is simply no way the Poles would enter an alliance with the Germans. Not even if the demands for Danzig weren't made. It simply doesn't fit with what we know of Minister Beck's personality and the Polish stance.

That said, it's possible the war would still erupt - but the country attacked first would be France...

[Asharella]

Originally Posted by Zireael

There is simply no way the Poles would enter an alliance with the Germans. Not even if the demands for Danzig weren't made. It simply doesn't fit with what we know of Minister Beck's personality and the Polish stance.

That said, it's possible the war would still erupt - but the country attacked first would be France...

I wonder if France was first if something similar to the Dunkirk Evacuation might not have happened and how that would have affected the course of the war?

[Catspoke]

A Polish alliance with Germany doesn't make sense beyond a non agression pact. Poland should have had a strong defensive alliance with the Czechs and not allowed 1938 to happen without war.

Likely a Soviet attack on Poland means the Poles are going to get significant help from the outside and will be able to receive it, Poland should be focused on keeping Germany in check.

However if the Poles agreed to an alliance or just transit rights for the Germans to attack the Soviet Union, the Germans would be hard pressed ecomically and militarily starting in 1939 to invade and come close to as good as 1941 OTL. Looting Poland and France first put the Germans in a solid position where they could focus almost entirely on the east (sure the AK, some infantry and air power is in the west OTL, but you would still have to leave them there in this scenerio to watch France.

Its hard to come up with WWII scenerios that the German do significantly better than OTL, you can kill off leadership at opportune times, or keep people like Wever alive, but Nazis being Nazis they are bound to screw up sooner or later.