WI: Northern Greece largely abandons for more defensible position

[General_Finley]

What if, in an effort to hold a better defensive position against a German invasion following the Greek counter attack against the Italians the Greek government chooses to largely abandon everything east of the river Strymonas and the albanian territory it held, pulling back to a new line across the Aliakmonas River?

I realize this is going to mean up giving Thessaloniki without much of a fight which many Greeks will not be happy about, but with a more secure position to defend against the German invasion, might it be possible for Greece to prolong the Battle for Greece? Would Hitler still invade the USSR if the German army was still fighting in Greece? How much worse would Barbarossa do in the event that Hitler decides to go ahead with the plan even with Greece still siphoning off troops? If Hitler were to post-pone Barbarossa until Greece is crushed how much worse off will Barbarossa be? What knock on effects might there be on the rest of the war?

[Snake Featherston]

If the Yugoslav Coup never happens and with it an Axis Yugoslavia, this is what the Greeks would have done IOTL. It wouldn't have impacted Barbarossa one way or the other, however.

[General_Finley]

Originally Posted by Snake Featherston

It wouldn't have impacted Barbarossa one way or the other, however.

Wouldn't beng forced to commit greater forces to a more protracted battle for Greece have a knock on effect on Barbarossa?

[Blackfox5]

Originally Posted by General_Finley

Wouldn't beng forced to commit greater forces to a more protracted battle for Greece have a knock on effect on Barbarossa?

No. You don't disrupt a major, potentially decisive, operation like Barbarossa for the relatively unimportant Greek front. It's highly unlikely the Germans will even commit any additional forces to Greece. In fact depending on the units in Greece, it's probably likely they'll be diverted to the Soviet Union if needed.

The only importance that Greece has is preventing its use as a British airbase against Ploesti.

[General_Finley]

Originally Posted by Blackfox5

No. You don't disrupt a major, potentially decisive, operation like Barbarossa for the relatively unimportant Greek front. It's highly unlikely the Germans will even commit any additional forces to Greece. In fact depending on the units in Greece, it's probably likely they'll be diverted to the Soviet Union if needed.

The only importance that Greece has is preventing its use as a British airbase against Ploesti.

Alright, but a surviving Greece is going to mean that the Allies have a toe hold on the continent and can bomb Ploesti which has to have some kind of knock on effects on the war, right?

[Snake Featherston]

Originally Posted by General_Finley

Wouldn't beng forced to commit greater forces to a more protracted battle for Greece have a knock on effect on Barbarossa?

No, as Barbarossa is logistically and strategically going to fail regardless, while the Soviets have both a poor plan and poor distribution of troops, so they'll still be bled heavily regardless.

[Alex Richards]

Originally Posted by Snake Featherston

No, as Barbarossa is logistically and strategically going to fail regardless, while the Soviets have both a poor plan and poor distribution of troops, so they'll still be bled heavily regardless.

The important changes are likely to happen post Barbarossa. Romania might be tempted to switch sides earlier if they have been suffering bombing raids on Ploesti for a long time. It being largely Italian and Bulgarian forces on the Greek front, it can be assumed that an Italian invasion (which is going to happen at some point) will either see a large troop withdrawal from the greek front immediately, allowing for negotiation with Bulgaria/assault into the Balkans and altering the disposition of forces there, or will allow a more rapid advance in Italy before the Italians withdraw their forces to mutch the same effect.

I would consider it likely that Albania at least is in the western camp in such a scenario, possibly with Greek Northern Epirus. Bulgaria is also a good possibility- particularly if the government is placated with being allowed to keep Yugoslav Macedonia. Romania might go WAllies, but is more likely to end up Soviet based purely on giving Stalin more of a buffer. We could see a divided Yugoslavia, potentially with a greater Albania incorporating Kosovo, or an independent Montenegro.

[Snake Featherston]

Originally Posted by Alex Richards

The important changes are likely to happen post Barbarossa. Romania might be tempted to switch sides earlier if they have been suffering bombing raids on Ploesti for a long time. It being largely Italian and Bulgarian forces on the Greek front, it can be assumed that an Italian invasion (which is going to happen at some point) will either see a large troop withdrawal from the greek front immediately, allowing for negotiation with Bulgaria/assault into the Balkans and altering the disposition of forces there, or will allow a more rapid advance in Italy before the Italians withdraw their forces to mutch the same effect.

I would consider it likely that Albania at least is in the western camp in such a scenario, possibly with Greek Northern Epirus. Bulgaria is also a good possibility- particularly if the government is placated with being allowed to keep Yugoslav Macedonia. Romania might go WAllies, but is more likely to end up Soviet based purely on giving Stalin more of a buffer. We could see a divided Yugoslavia, potentially with a greater Albania incorporating Kosovo, or an independent Montenegro.

True. It would be particularly interesting, for a certain definition of interesting, to see what happens if/when the RAF launches one of its first devastating bomber raids on Ploesti around the time of the winter 1941 disasters starting in the USSR..........and for that matter oil is the one area where strategic bombing actually could do a lot of really effective work, assuming the Bomber Barons don't think they can blast enough cities to rubble and get the Germans out of the war that way, that is.

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

My recollection is that they were holding off the italians fine, but once the germans hit them they were rolled up pretty quickly. Also, they didnt have the mobility to keep ahead of the advancing germans and build a new defensive line before they got there.

[Andreas]

The Greek Government realized that the German invasion, in compination with a renewed Italian offensive, was no possible to be stoped. Even if the Axis forces could be long delayed, the final outcome would be that the country would end in complete destruction, and the majority of the youth killed or cripled. So, their decision was to fight a "battle of honour", since with such a behaviour you normally earn your enemy's respect and your ally's gratitude. Of course, they could not imagine what followed during the Ocupation: famine, executions, slaughters - total cost over 600,000 lives or almost 10-12% of the population. Also theft of national wealth, treasures and infrastructure, destruction of infrastructure, forced abandonement of entire economic sectors, etc.

[Some Bloke]

The British reccommended retreating to a more defensible position, the big question is, how can they make their arguments more convincing?

[John Farson]

I'm surprised no one's mentioned Crete yet. With the Greeks and Allies holding off the Germans longer, that would give time to better fortify the island.

It could then be used as a convenient base for bomber raids against Ploesti and elsewhere.

[Some Bloke]

True but if the British convice the greeks to adopt defensible positions that would buy time to fortify crete anyway.

[Andreas]

Crete fell not due to the lack of fortification, but due to the lack of an effective operation plan for the defence force, and the lack of sufficient troops. If the Greeks and the British withdrew forces form the mainland to defend Crete, the mainland would fall much faster. Concluding, as long as the British could not or didn't desire to deploy more troops for the defence of Greece and Crete, nothing could be done differently than IOTL...

[cimon]

Originally Posted by Dathi THorfinnsson

My recollection is that they were holding off the italians fine, but once the germans hit them they were rolled up pretty quickly. Also, they didnt have the mobility to keep ahead of the advancing germans and build a new defensive line before they got there.

Quite wrong information as I see it.The Greeks were not 'holding off 'the Italians,but giving them a royal thrashing of considerable proportions;the Italian divisions that started the offensive suffered serious losses and were questionably operational and two had disappeared from the Italian order of battle,the division alpini Julia and another I can't remember off hand.The divisions that took part suffered heavy losses and since they were repulsed
their moral was low.The Italian army in Albania was in an overall impotent state.

The Germans who attacked the Metaxa line of forts met with an unpleasant surprise and when the cease fire was signed 18 out of 24 forts, the important ones, were in the hands of the Greeks.The German army could not advance through the Metaxa line,but unexpectadly the 2nd Panzer(general Feiel) took the seemingly uncrossable ridge of Doirani inside the Yugoslavian side of the border(the Yugoslav front had been breached so quickly that many of the German mechanised and armoured divisions had no chance to get engaged with the Serbs) so the Germans entered Greece through Yugoslavia.
This is the reason that the Greeks should not abandon the metaxa line which also kept the Bulgarians from getting actively involved in the conflict.the problem was with the Yugoslavians who in a meeting between them the Greeks and the English general Papagos,the Greek commander in chief,warned the Yugoslavians against their declared intention to defend the entirety of their land;they didn't have the means and they might look into the probability of a Bulgarian offencive in their south eastern border and provide for adequate reserves.
The English had limited ability to help Greece and providing the Germans didn't land in North Africa,the English could provide more anti-aircraft artillery and medium artillery to improve the defences of Crete which was like an aircraft- carrier equidistant from Alexandria and Tobruk.

[LHB]

So it sounds like the problem was in Yugoslavia. Is it possible for the Yugoslav army to hold out any longer using a saner defense plan?

[General_Finley]

Originally Posted by LHB

So it sounds like the problem was in Yugoslavia. Is it possible for the Yugoslav army to hold out any longer using a saner defense plan?

Perhaps if Royal Yugoslav Army had been fully mobilized rather than only partially the Yugoslavians might have done better, but that only accounts for one of the problems facing the Yugoslavian defense. A big problem is that the Croatians aren't going to be eager to defend Serbia and just as OTL you will likely see Croatian troops revolting.