Is USSR doomed if Japan invades?

[CalBear]

The Japanese would always be using oil. They would have to keep there fleet mobile, for political reasons if no other (keep in mind that either the Army or Navy could bring down the Government at will). The Japanese had over seas possessions (i.e. the Mandates & Formosa) as well as the need to constantly transport supply to the Army in China (and by the time of this POD, in Indochina)

The Japanese were also using lots of fuel in China for transport as well as for aircraft and the light armor they did have in place.

The Japanese couldn't get tactical surprise becuase they were throughly penetrated by the Sorge Spy Ring (maybe THE great Humit Intel success of the war). Stalin frequently knew what the Japanese were going to do before field commanders. Sorge's weakness was that Stalin didn't always believe him if the information wasn't to Stalin's liking (Sorge called the start of Barbarossa within two days). Stalin also didn't always pass on Intel (like information about Pearl Harbor), which made the information effectively worthless. By the time the Japanese had collected Sorge and his network it was far too late to change course, even if the Japanese had been so disposed as to take on the Red Army (which they absolutely were not).

Originally Posted by Blue Max

@The Red:


If the Japanese can't beat the Soviet Union at sea they've got nothing going for them at all. I have to think the IJN can wipe out the Soviet Pacific Fleet and Sakhalin is going to be cut off supply.


Wouldn't Japan have tactical surprise if they opted to attack the Soviets? Couldn't they simply win initial battles by exploiting it? I'm well aware that the IJA can't hope to win with no medium tanks, only light artillery and serious doctrinal issues. If Japan can't even win with the element of surprise, they've clearly made no attempt to figure the Soviets out at all.


I agree that charging north without a plan is a great way to get trashed, but wouldn't a Japan that's interested in taking on the Soviets plan for that for six months, like it did to take on the Western Powers? I'm unsure that Japan would fail immediately if it had seriously planned to attack.


Japan may or may run out of oil on that timeframe. Northern Sakhalin had some oil production and coal mines in production since the 1920s. The Soviets probably smash the place, but at the same time, if Japan is attacking the Soviet Union it's not sending its navy to the far corners of the world.


Didn't know about the Siberians not being sent from the Soviet Far East. But wouldn't some of them be sent against the Japanese? Is it really likely that all of the forces in the Soviet Far East can clean out East Asia from Vladivostok to Guangzhou with no reinforcements from other theaters?


I guess I'm having a hard time understanding how Japan runs out of oil so quickly when it's not waging much of a naval war and can potentially gain a small amount of oil. Japan might well run out of Oil--but before too long, they're only going to be holding Islands.


That said, why are the British involved here? Japan attacking the UK/USA in addition to attacking the Soviet Union is slightly crazier than Japan's OTL decision.

[MattII]

Originally Posted by Blue Max

But wouldn't some of them be sent against the Japanese? Is it really likely that all of the forces in the Soviet Far East can clean out East Asia from Vladivostok to Guangzhou with no reinforcements from other theaters?

I don't know about Guangzhou, but you've got to go a long way before finding a port the Japanese can't easily blockade. On another front, this is good news for Iran, since this is now probably the major thoroughfare for Lend-Lease going to Russia.

That's really the only card Japan has to play, if they can fall back slowly enough then the US has to send stuff through Iran and Murmansk/Archangelsk, and hope enough arrives to be really useful.

[sharlin]

Re the Japanese taking on the Soviet navy. The Soviets didn't have a navy worth the name in the late 30s early 40s. Its ships, those that were active were a hodgepodge of barely refitted ships from WW1 and slightly before, the barest handful of modern Italian built cruisers, some modern destroyers and a woefully trained submarine force.

[RGB]

Originally Posted by sharlin

Re the Japanese taking on the Soviet navy. The Soviets didn't have a navy worth the name in the late 30s early 40s. Its ships, those that were active were a hodgepodge of barely refitted ships from WW1 and slightly before, the barest handful of modern Italian built cruisers, some modern destroyers and a woefully trained submarine force.

So the Red Navy would stay holed up in harbour as gun support/AA, and let the IJN wreck themselves over Vladivostok.

They ended up doing mostly small-craft river operations anyway OTL, and its naval infantry fought the Germans. The big deciding battle would be in the air, where the Japanese had a thin edge in training, but also a lot less fuel.

[MattII]

Except the IJN doesn't have to go within 200 miles of Vladivostok, because the IJN controls all entry and exit into the Sea of Japan.

[BigWillyG]

Originally Posted by RGB

So the Red Navy would stay holed up in harbour as gun support/AA, and let the IJN wreck themselves over Vladivostok.

They ended up doing mostly small-craft river operations anyway OTL, and its naval infantry fought the Germans. The big deciding battle would be in the air, where the Japanese had a thin edge in training, but also a lot less fuel.

I'd say the Japanese would also have an edge in aircraft quality as well as training quality at the beginning as well. Assuming you have Zeroes and the other aircraft of the Pearl Harbor time period being used they'd be going up against SB-2s, I-16s and Polikarpov biplanes when war breaks out.

[RGB]

Originally Posted by MattII

Except the IJN doesn't have to go within 200 miles of Vladivostok, because the IJN controls all entry and exit into the Sea of Japan.

That's way more likely. The question there is going to be LL shipments and how long America will put up with interference.

That's a pretty open question, admittedly, both technically and politically.

Stalin was a cautious enough guy, he didn't want an escalation even after Halhin-Gol, where Zhukov etc. could have bagged the entire attacking force with very little more effort. The Japanese would have to ask really unreasonable things for the USSR to really commit to an all-out war against them.

I am really wondering what is it that the Germans could offer them to lure them into such a position that the IJN would have to abandon its Strike South to support the IJA.

Originally Posted by BigWillyG

I'd say the Japanese would also have an edge in aircraft quality as well as training quality at the beginning as well. Assuming you have Zeroes and the other aircraft of the Pearl Harbor time period being used they'd be going up against SB-2s, I-16s and Polikarpov biplanes when war breaks out.

They probably would. I'm expecting anywhere between 2:1 and 1.5:1 wins in Japanese favour early on (on average, with some outstanding sorties of course as well), based on the Halhin-Gol performance; except of course by the end of the 3-month period the Soviets caught up. As the Zeroes come online, it will be tough on the Soviets for sure. Then of course the Yaks/Lavochkins come on, and where they will be sent will depend on how well the Japanese are doing.

One advantage that the Soviets do have is their planes needing a less high-grade fuel. That alone could make them outlast their opponents at low altitudes. USSR produced lots of that stuff, it's the high-grade fuel that they needed LL for.

[Julian]

Soviets crush the Japanese invasion, and immediately counterattack. Japanese forces in Manchuria quickly fall apart, and by the end of 1941 the Soviets are able to launch their Winter counteroffensive with little difference fron OTL. Japan is defeated in mainland Asia by 1942, giving the Soviets a morale boost.

[33k7]

It seems like a Japanese invasion of the Soviet Union is were Pearl Harbor doesn't happen

So Japan doesn't declare war on France United States and Britain

An sends its armies they sent south to the north the Japanese don't do anything without a plan so I expect a massive surprise attack on Soviets major ports as well as a land and sea invasion the Japanese were fond of doing surprise attacks

And they're going to hit their enemies hard being so close to the homeland reserves would be called up and sent a Japanese operation Barbarossa

Their first priority would be to destroy Soviet railways and other modes of transportation to get resources to the far east

Second priorities would be to attack ships and any airfields and planes
I don't think the Soviets had any radar or anything like that in the Far East that I truly wonder how many of their tanks would actually work

an Germany had no problems using Russian tanks maybe Japan does the same thing they could seize a substantial portion of Russian-made tanks in the opening attacks

Does anyone know truthfully how well Soviet soldiers were trained and supplied in the Far East because it looks like most of their supplies were going to the German front of the war

how quickly are the Soviets able to send supplies there and repair any damage to Supply lines to get there

I really don't see Japan invading Siberia I can see them taking the Soviet East Coast to take out their supplies and make it more difficult for the United States and Britain to supply it having to go through Iran for lend lease

this may push the Soviet government over the edge to and they may capitulate seeing a two front war open up and their supply lines cut to their Eastern front

I wonder how Japanese soldiers honorbound to die fighting for the Emperor would fare against Stalin's not one step back policy

I'm also putting a map of Japan at its height of power take away all the purple territories how many Japanese soldiers would be free for an invasion of the Soviet Far East

Again this is a scenario where Pearl Harbor doesn't happen an America is not brought into the war

[MattII]

Originally Posted by Julian

Soviets crush the Japanese invasion, and immediately counterattack. Japanese forces in Manchuria quickly fall apart, and by the end of 1941 the Soviets are able to launch their Winter counteroffensive with little difference fron OTL. Japan is defeated in mainland Asia by 1942, giving the Soviets a morale boost.

You're forgetting that the Soviets have limited logistics, and most of it's in the west. Yes the Soviets will crush the Japanese in every engagement, but at this point they're not going to be in a position to make sweeping advances, at least not until they've got a more firm link through Iran.

Originally Posted by 33k7

I'm also putting a map of Japan at its height of power take away all the purple territories how many Japanese soldiers would be free for an invasion of the Soviet Far East

All the purple areas except Tongking, that's an acquisition they had prior to Barbarossa. Also, sheer numbers of troops doesn't matter, The Soviets will have more tanks, and the Japanese will be hard-pressed to match that.

[Catspoke]

The most logical thing for the Japanese to do to support the general cause of Axis is blockade the port of Vladivostok to stop Lend Lease to the Soviet Russia, the occasional long raid air raid to bother rail traffic on the Trans Siberian. The Japanese don't have the strength, weaponry or logistics to invade Siberia so shouldn't even try.

Conversely the Russians wouldn't seriously try to invade Manchuria before 1944 because they wouldn't want to waste their limited logistical capability here (agree with MatII) when there were serious enemies to beat in the west and a country to liberate and their supply situation is worse with less Lend Lease.

However, The Americans (when they get in, and maybe even the British right away) would base bombers in Siberia to do raids against Japan which is why Japan will never do such a thing.

[Shaby]

Originally Posted by 33k7

It seems like a Japanese invasion of the Soviet Union is were Pearl Harbor doesn't happen

So Japan doesn't declare war on France United States and Britain

An sends its armies they sent south to the north the Japanese don't do anything without a plan so I expect a massive surprise attack on Soviets major ports as well as a land and sea invasion the Japanese were fond of doing surprise attacks

There definitely won't be PH. Unless Japanese go totally mad. They were merely insane OTL.

Cough, cough. Yes, Japan may not declare war on UK. IMHO, UK will not return this favor. Soviets, unable to make counterattack against Japan will demand this. UK will declare war.

Japan's problem here is that there is absolutely no plan they can make that would enable them to make any headway into Soviet Far East.

First there is no possibility of surprise.

Second Japanese are inferior to Soviets in numbers, doctrine and equipment.

Third there is absolutely nothing there worth conquering.

[The Red]

Originally Posted by Blue Max

If the Japanese can't beat the Soviet Union at sea they've got nothing going for them at all. I have to think the IJN can wipe out the Soviet Pacific Fleet and Sakhalin is going to be cut off supply.

They can defeat the Soviets at sea, at least in the short term. It's the British they have to worry about.

Originally Posted by Blue Max

Wouldn't Japan have tactical surprise if they opted to attack the Soviets? Couldn't they simply win initial battles by exploiting it? I'm well aware that the IJA can't hope to win with no medium tanks, only light artillery and serious doctrinal issues. If Japan can't even win with the element of surprise, they've clearly made no attempt to figure the Soviets out at all.

The Sorge spy ring would have warned about it beforehand, of course like most of the intel on Barbarossa it may have ended up in Stalin's junkmail. However, the Far Eastern front was also historically one of the few Soviet fronts standing prepared on June 22nd, a readiness that continued all throughout the summer and autumn.

Originally Posted by Blue Max

I agree that charging north without a plan is a great way to get trashed, but wouldn't a Japan that's interested in taking on the Soviets plan for that for six months, like it did to take on the Western Powers? I'm unsure that Japan would fail immediately if it had seriously planned to attack.

As mentioned several times in this thread, one of the main Japanese shortcomings was their failure in doctrine. As such, meticulous planning might only have minimal benefit.

Originally Posted by Blue Max

Japan may or may run out of oil on that timeframe. Northern Sakhalin had some oil production and coal mines in production since the 1920s. The Soviets probably smash the place, but at the same time, if Japan is attacking the Soviet Union it's not sending its navy to the far corners of the world.

Sakhalin's not the easiest place to invade, it's territory favours the defender quite a bit. The Japanese would take it eventually after blockade bleeds the Red Army dry, but the Soviets would have plenty of time to destroy it. The Japanese will be opening up a major new front in Siberia, one in which their main advantage might be weight in numbers. The larger the force the larger the amount of oil expended however, especially as the Japanese advance into tundra and foraging no longer becomes an option.

The main naval problems will come from engaging the British.

Originally Posted by Blue Max

Didn't know about the Siberians not being sent from the Soviet Far East. But wouldn't some of them be sent against the Japanese? Is it really likely that all of the forces in the Soviet Far East can clean out East Asia from Vladivostok to Guangzhou with no reinforcements from other theaters?

They can once the Japanese economy grinds to a halt. Until then they aren't in any rush, just prevent the Japanese advance reaching anything valuable and keep them expending resources they can't afford to throw away.

Originally Posted by Blue Max

That said, why are the British involved here? Japan attacking the UK/USA in addition to attacking the Soviet Union is slightly crazier than Japan's OTL decision.

It's unlikely Japan would attack Britain. However, Japan has invaded the Soviet Union, without reason or provocation. The Finns had both these behind them yet the British declared war on them once they advanced into Soviet territory proper (East Karelia), the British would do the same to the Japanese. The US isn't as sure a thing, although I think they'd have probably joined the war over the Atlantic before Japan collapsed anyway.

[iddt3]

Originally Posted by 33k7

It seems like a Japanese invasion of the Soviet Union is were Pearl Harbor doesn't happen

So Japan doesn't declare war on France United States and Britain

An sends its armies they sent south to the north the Japanese don't do anything without a plan so I expect a massive surprise attack on Soviets major ports as well as a land and sea invasion the Japanese were fond of doing surprise attacks

And they're going to hit their enemies hard being so close to the homeland reserves would be called up and sent a Japanese operation Barbarossa

Their first priority would be to destroy Soviet railways and other modes of transportation to get resources to the far east

Second priorities would be to attack ships and any airfields and planes
I don't think the Soviets had any radar or anything like that in the Far East that I truly wonder how many of their tanks would actually work

an Germany had no problems using Russian tanks maybe Japan does the same thing they could seize a substantial portion of Russian-made tanks in the opening attacks

Does anyone know truthfully how well Soviet soldiers were trained and supplied in the Far East because it looks like most of their supplies were going to the German front of the war

how quickly are the Soviets able to send supplies there and repair any damage to Supply lines to get there

I really don't see Japan invading Siberia I can see them taking the Soviet East Coast to take out their supplies and make it more difficult for the United States and Britain to supply it having to go through Iran for lend lease

this may push the Soviet government over the edge to and they may capitulate seeing a two front war open up and their supply lines cut to their Eastern front

I wonder how Japanese soldiers honorbound to die fighting for the Emperor would fare against Stalin's not one step back policy

I'm also putting a map of Japan at its height of power take away all the purple territories how many Japanese soldiers would be free for an invasion of the Soviet Far East

Again this is a scenario where Pearl Harbor doesn't happen an America is not brought into the war

I'm very confused as to how Japan would conquer the Philippines without bring America into the war.

[BigWillyG]

Originally Posted by RGB

They probably would. I'm expecting anywhere between 2:1 and 1.5:1 wins in Japanese favour early on (on average, with some outstanding sorties of course as well), based on the Halhin-Gol performance; except of course by the end of the 3-month period the Soviets caught up. As the Zeroes come online, it will be tough on the Soviets for sure. Then of course the Yaks/Lavochkins come on, and where they will be sent will depend on how well the Japanese are doing.

One advantage that the Soviets do have is their planes needing a less high-grade fuel. That alone could make them outlast their opponents at low altitudes. USSR produced lots of that stuff, it's the high-grade fuel that they needed LL for.

If the Japanese attack the USSR after Barbarossa shouldn't the Zero, Oscar generation already be in squadron service when the invasion starts?

[RGB]

Originally Posted by BigWillyG

If the Japanese attack the USSR after Barbarossa shouldn't the Zero, Oscar generation already be in squadron service when the invasion starts?

The Army's clone wasn't put into wide service until almost a year in, and the naval Zeroes weren't that numerous.

Basically, the IJN has to be fully committed to the strike north that the IJA wants to take advantage of the temporary air superiority. Will they do it?

[33k7]

to Shaby

What does the British do when they declare war on Japan what would their plan of attack

They have to transfer ships from Europe before attempting a naval battle with the Japanese Imperial Navy (my imagination just exploded a massive Japanese Imperial Navy Royal Navy battle the awesomeness)

how long would it take exactly to transfer British ships from Europe to the Pacific anyone have an answer

would Thailand allowed British forces to go through it to attack the Japanese held Indochina and would they meet any resistance from France if they went up through Singapore


Why can't Japan make any headway in the Far East they are able to conquer parts of China with millions of people why not the Far East with very few people

tanks are there even any major roadways for the Russian tanks to invade Manchuria through

in this point in history because the Japanese Air Force would chew them up if they went by road

how many would get stuck in the mud or breakdown trying to go through the Russian planes the Soviets and runing into the same problem the Germans were having on the other side of the old world

Soviets planes how many of them actually have pilots and how many of the pilots actually have combat experience or experience flying and most important how many planes work

Like I said before primary Japanese targets would be the supply line to the Far East air bases and planes and any Soviet ships

the Japanese would plan an attack an saying there is no plan they could come up with that would work is like saying the Persians were destined to conquered Greece before the battle of Thermopylae

We know nothing about the Soviet military garrison in the Far East it's one thing to know their numbers is another thing entirely to know the condition of the equipment their supplies and the training of the soldiers
and who would be leading the Soviet counterattack

[hairysamarian]

Originally Posted by 33k7

Why can't Japan make any headway in the Far East they are able to conquer parts of China with millions of people why not the Far East with very few people

There is just no comparison between the Chinese and Soviet military of the era. The Soviets would eat them alive.

tanks are there even any major roadways for the Russian tanks to invade Manchuria through

As 1945 proved, tanks work just fine there. As long as you have Russian tanks and not outdated Japanese designs, and correct doctrine for using them.

[KACKO]

Originally Posted by RGB

The Army's clone wasn't put into wide service until almost a year in, and the naval Zeroes weren't that numerous.

Basically, the IJN has to be fully committed to the strike north that the IJA wants to take advantage of the temporary air superiority. Will they do it?

Do you mean Ki-43 Hayabusa/ Oscar? But that was different plane then Zero.

[Smaug]

Id say Japan, 1, siberean winter 5, a quick action and winter screws them. Jmo