Carlos I of Portugal dodged the bullet's

[33k7]

Carlos I of Portugal along with his family is not assassinated in the assassination attempt in February 1, 1908

Could this lead to civil war in Portugal

Would the British Empire get involved to support their ally and its monarch

[33k7]

bump No takers

[Archangel]

Originally Posted by 33k7

Carlos I of Portugal along with his family is not assassinated in the assassination attempt in February 1, 1908

Could this lead to civil war in Portugal

Would the British Empire get involved to support their ally and its monarch

There would probably be other attempts against his life (if he continues to allow João Franco to rule as a dictatorial prime-minister) or other rebellions (if his popularity continues to decline due to the economics problems, political mismanagement or the accumulated anger over the Ultimatum).

[33k7]

Originally Posted by Archangel

There would probably be other attempts against his life (if he continues to allow João Franco to rule as a dictatorial prime-minister) or other rebellions (if his popularity continues to decline due to the economics problems, political mismanagement or the accumulated anger over the Ultimatum).

João Franco will most likely be replaced

I'm just going to assume that Francisco Joaquim Ferreira do Amaral is made prime minister like in our world after him after the failed assassination attempt there probably be some public outrage at the assassins boosting support for the monarchy

the question is how does the government keep more people from joining the Republic forces and squash the revolutionaries plans

thank you for commenting

[Archangel]

Originally Posted by 33k7

João Franco will most likely be replaced

I'm just going to assume that Francisco Joaquim Ferreira do Amaral is made prime minister like in our world after him after the failed assassination attempt there probably be some public outrage at the assassins boosting support for the monarchy

the question is how does the government keep more people from joining the Republic forces and squash the revolutionaries plans

thank you for commenting

All of these crisis decrease popular support for the monarchy especially in the cities (the urban small bourgeoisie was the most easy to attract to republicanism), but the best way to do damage control is to:
- reform the election system (to ensure more fair elections and end political patronage);
- the political parties (to avoid a Tweedledee-Tweedledum scenario in the eyes of the voters, where little apparent differences were visible between the two main parties); and
- respect more the rights of the Parliament (to avoid antagonizing the more moderate of the two main parties, the Progressive Party - thus bleeding less voters and politicians to the republicans*).

*Sometimes, some members of the Regenerator Party (the more right-wing of the two main parties) joined the Republicans, but IMHO it was ideologically easier for a member of the Progressives, with its respect for a parliamentary-based system to do so).

[miguelrj]

Originally Posted by 33k7

João Franco will most likely be replaced

I'm just going to assume that Francisco Joaquim Ferreira do Amaral is made prime minister like in our world after him after the failed assassination attempt there probably be some public outrage at the assassins boosting support for the monarchy

I agree that João Franco is doomed anyway but I have little faith that the mere dodging of a bullet will give public support to the king.
IOTL the regicide gave some sympathy towards the 18-year-old tragically orphaned king Manuel II but at the same time the funeral of the assassins attracted a large crowd that treated them like fallen heroes.

[33k7]

I see no reason why people on the fence would not be outraged at an attempted assassination of the royal family

the government could paint the rebels as a more villainous group buying them sometime like in our world to get their act together with the king and his elder son Alive

there is a good chance they're able to reform the government

but It probably comes down to which side can produce the better propaganda

so am I wrong to say there is a 50-50 chance the monarchy survives
if it is able to use resolve the matter mostly peacefully

[miguelrj]

Originally Posted by 33k7

I see no reason why people on the fence would not be outraged at an attempted assassination of the royal family

the government could paint the rebels as a more villainous group buying them sometime like in our world to get their act together with the king and his elder son Alive

there is a good chance they're able to reform the government

but It probably comes down to which side can produce the better propaganda

The thing is... the actual OTL successful assassination of the king and crown prince was met with mixed reactions, why would a failed attempt cause more outrage?

Originally Posted by 33k7

so am I wrong to say there is a 50-50 chance the monarchy survives
if it is able to use resolve the matter mostly peacefully

If the regicide fails and the king and crown prince are at most wounded, I wonder if the near-death experience of the king would prompt him to either
1) abandon João Franco's reppression policy and try to reconcile the nation with some of the measures pointed out by Archangel
2) or after the heroic funerals of the failed assassins realize that he was not popular and abdicate. King Luís Filipe should also try to reconcile the nation since the reppression of the previous years wasn't quite working... The main difference with OTL being that there's a less traumatic continuity of the royal power and less frail position...

[33k7]

to miguelrj

How did Portugal get not of bankruptcy what did the Republic do?


And did the British ultimatum of 1890/the pink map was it really that important to the Republic birth or is it just over exaggerated

[miguelrj]

Originally Posted by 33k7

to miguelrj

How did Portugal get not of bankruptcy what did the Republic do?

How did Portugal avoid a third bankruptcy since the 1890s? I'm not sure, Portugal was in such dire straits that Britain and Germany were secretly plotting to split the Portuguese colonial empire by forcing Portugal to default. If the two of them hadn't gone to war with each other maybe they'd gone through with their evil ploy.
It was not until some austere minister of finance came to power in the late 20s that Portugal's finances got their act together for a while.

[miguelrj]

Originally Posted by 33k7

And did the British ultimatum of 1890/the pink map was it really that important to the Republic birth or is it just over exaggerated

The main reasons that would make one a monarchist or a republican shouldn't be the pink map, really. But the Republicans seized an opportunity and used the nationalist card well. It was a good boost, it may have given the movement the momentum it needed in the 1890s.

[33k7]

To miguelrj

Would any other country back up Portugal in the event Germany and Britain attempted to do anything like a hostile takeover of Portugal colonies

[miguelrj]

Originally Posted by 33k7

To miguelrj

Would any other country back up Portugal in the event Germany and Britain attempted to do anything like a hostile takeover of Portugal colonies

Nope, it'd be hopeless.