WI: Germany denied Zimmermann Telegram was Real?

[Emperor Norton I]

What if Zimmermann and the German government, rather than admit the telegram was in fact real, had denied it and allowed the US to think it was a British forgery?

[wiking]

Originally Posted by Emperor Norton I

What if Zimmermann and the German government, rather than admit the telegram was in fact real, had denied it and allowed the US to think it was a British forgery?

Delays US entry by 1-2 months...likely only about 3-5 weeks. The Uboat war was increasing pressure for Wilson to do something. Still, it would mean lots of unhappiness about it in the US, so the German-American community would push back against the villifying of Germany and Germans. The US will probably end up playing more hardball at Versailles and be genuinely divided over the declaration of war.

[Badshah]

Originally Posted by wiking

Delays US entry by 1-2 months...likely only about 3-5 weeks. The Uboat war was increasing pressure for Wilson to do something.

I'm not sure. Wasn't the anti-war platform popular? Wilson won re-election by promising not to go to war, after all.

[wiking]

Originally Posted by trollhole

I'm not sure. Wasn't the anti-war platform popular? Wilson won re-election by promising not to go to war, after all.

Yes, but the East Coast was hurting very badly from the loss of trade routes caused by the danger of German subs and the sinking of US ships was not well tolerated, pushing even some in the anti-war faction to do something about it. The suggestion was to arm merchant ships and run convoys escorted by the US navy, meaning something could well start from a naval incident, but beyond this the loss of trade caused by the Entente running out of money could well end the demand for US trade anyway. Its not guaranteed that the US would go to war, but the sinking of US ships would escalate things very quickly.

[yourworstnightmare]

American ships were sunk by German submarines. Even if Germany denies the Zimmermann telegram was real, America would enter the war. The Zimmermann telegram is overrated thanks to Tuchman, the submarine warfare guarantees American entry.

[BlondieBC]

Originally Posted by wiking

Delays US entry by 1-2 months...likely only about 3-5 weeks. The Uboat war was increasing pressure for Wilson to do something. Still, it would mean lots of unhappiness about it in the US, so the German-American community would push back against the villifying of Germany and Germans. The US will probably end up playing more hardball at Versailles and be genuinely divided over the declaration of war.

Agreed, this is about right.


Now the more interesting impact may be the speed of the USA mobilization. IOTL, the USA army actually became smaller (no stop loss) for the first 2-3 months. With a more divided public, things like conscription could be smaller or slower. If one assumes a 6 week delay in declaring war, and a 12 week delay in the mobilization schedule, we could see better German performance.

If one assume the USA goes with the original plan to fully finish training before send full corps over, the USA is even more likely to arrive too late.

[The Kiat]

Originally Posted by trollhole

I'm not sure. Wasn't the anti-war platform popular? Wilson won re-election by promising not to go to war, after all.

That's never stopped a politician from breaking a campaign promise.

[Rich Rostrom]

Originally Posted by Emperor Norton I

What if Zimmermann and the German government, rather than admit the telegram was in fact real, had denied it and allowed the US to think it was a British forgery?

The British could prove to the U.S. beyond any doubt that the ZT was genuine.

When the Great War started, the British government cut all the telegraph cables from Germany to the New World.

The German government found an alternative. The U.S. State Department had laid a cable from the U.S. to its Embassy in Denmark. The U.S. agreed to let Germany use this cable for diplomatic messages to and from its embassies in the Americas, provided the messages were sent in clear and pre-approved by the U.S.

What the Germans didn't know, and the U.S. simply overlooked, was that this cable (and several others) passed through a relay station at Porthcurno, near Land's End in Cornwall. There westbound signals were boosted for the transatlantic jump. Of course the British monitored all cable traffic through the relay station.

When it came time to send the ZT, the Germans obviously could not send it clear. So they persuaded the U.S. Ambassador to Germany to let them send this one message in cipher with some lame excuse. British cipher experts had broken many of the German ciphers, including the one used for the ZT.

Thus within a day or two, the British had the cleartext. They presented it to the U.S. along with the ciphertext which the U.S. knew had been sent over its line, and demonstrated the decoding. There was no possible question about it after that. And of course there was the added insult of the Germans using the U.S.'s line in the course of inciting war on the U.S.

Presenting it to the U.S. was a bit awkward; the British didn't want to admit to the U.S. that they were tapping the U.S. cable. So they claimed that the ciphertext was intercepted on retransmission from Washington to Mexico City via commercial telegraph. (IIRC they claimed to have bribed clerks in the Mexican telegraph service.)

Beyond that, when the ZT was published, a cover story was required to conceal that the cipher was broken; the British gave out that the cleartext had been stolen from the German embassy in Mexico. The German Foreign Ministry chewed out the German ambassador, and demanded that he find the traitor. He indignantly and quite correctly denied any leaks on his end, and the ministry backed down.

All this may be found in The SIGINT Secrets by Nigel West.

Zimmerman's admission was merely the cherry on top of the sundae.

[BlondieBC]

Originally Posted by Rich Rostrom

The British could prove to the U.S. beyond any doubt that the ZT was genuine.

Likely yes, but only at the cost of informing the Germans the codes are broken. The USA will likely provide the information to the Germans intentionally or unintentionally.

[Grimm Reaper]

Admiral Hall and the British had already concluded that proving this point was worth the risk to Room 40's operational secrecy.

As for denial...since Zimmerman in particular and the German government as a whole never even considered this possible course of action...perhaps due to the message being sent three different ways, all of which were picked up by the British(!).

[Snake Featherston]

Given the Germans didn't think that adding the USA to their list of enemies was worth worrying about IOTL, denying the Telegram just means another casus belli replaces the OTL one.

[Mikestone8]

Originally Posted by wiking

Yes, but the East Coast was hurting very badly from the loss of trade routes caused by the danger of German subs and the sinking of US ships was not well tolerated, pushing even some in the anti-war faction to do something about it. The suggestion was to arm merchant ships and run convoys escorted by the US navy, meaning something could well start from a naval incident, but beyond this the loss of trade caused by the Entente running out of money could well end the demand for US trade anyway. Its not guaranteed that the US would go to war, but the sinking of US ships would escalate things very quickly.

Did the East Coast alone have enough clout to get the US into war?

My impression is that the ZT "reached the parts that other issues can't reach", by creating a credible German threat to areas that didn't give a hoot about what happened in the Atlantic ocean.

[wiking]

Originally Posted by Mikestone8

Did the East Coast alone have enough clout to get the US into war?

My impression is that the ZT "reached the parts that other issues can't reach", by creating a credible German threat to areas that didn't give a hoot about what happened in the Atlantic ocean.

I doubt it on their own, but sinking of US ships by USW would get enough of the rest of the country angry, especially after Germany promised it wouldn't repeat the killing of US citizens like what happened on the Arabic and Lusitania, to get a majority interested in war over 'neutral rights' and 'freedom of the seas', which were a joke with the British blockade in progress.

The sinking of US merchant ships was considered a serious insult to the US, as even the Germans sinking ships off of the US coast in international waters in 1916 fastideously following Cruiser Rules pissed off a lot of Americans, especially as the USN had to stand aside and watch as the Germans did this.

Part of the problem though was the decreasing support for the Germans in the US media, which could influence US opinion all throughout the country, and many of the papers were based close to the East Coast or in it. Plus the closing down of shipping in international waters, though not even in the war trade, was hurting industry not associated with Entente war trade, so this has an effect deeper into the country. Still though it would take the sinking of a US merchant ship and death of US citizens by USW to get a majority interested in war.

I wonder what the economic effect would be on the Entente if the US took another 2 months or so to get involved in the war as Entente credit was drying up. Demand for US shipping would drop anyway due to lack of orders, so perhaps the USW would become less of an issue without war orders coming in....perhaps the credit crunch would prevent US entry over USW if US entry was delayed long enough.

[Rich Rostrom]

Originally Posted by BlondieBC

Likely yes, but only at the cost of informing the Germans the codes are broken. The USA will likely provide the information to the Germans intentionally or unintentionally.

1) The British had a cover story for their possession of the cleartext, which the Germans swallowed.

2) The British did tell the U.S. how the message was decrypted. The U.S. kept the secret.

So the British had little risk to their secret; against that the tremendous advantage of proving the ZT's authenticity and bringing the U.S. into the war. It didn't take them five minutes to make that choice, IMO.