World War III in May 1946

[Top hats daily]

So on a scale of 0 to 100, how close is the United States to getting the A-Bomb project restarted? Or have the KGB completely wiped it out as a coherent organization.

[Hairog]

Originally Posted by tallthinkev

A different thing, how would Britian go about getting rid of ex commies in the Labour party? Kick them out, arrest them or something else?

I don't know how ruthless the British are. It seems that IOTL they were pretty lenient as was the US for a time. You read the Venona project and it's just amazing how many and how high up Communist sympathizers were. Yet most of them got away with it because the politicians and the intelligence community at the time were embarrassed to let their respective citizens know just how infiltrated both the US and UK were.

The irony for me is that I personally hate Joe McCarthy for all the innocent people he harmed with his witch hunt methods. For the most part he continually attacked the wrong people and many of them were innocent. But his basic premise was correct. The government and the OSS etc. were full of highly placed communists. Just not the ones he chose to frame.

Now that a shooting war has broken out I suspect things will get a little more rough for closed commies.

[Hairog]

Originally Posted by Top hats daily

So on a scale of 0 to 100, how close is the United States to getting the A-Bomb project restarted? Or have the KGB completely wiped it out as a coherent organization.

They should start production again from 9 months after the polonium attack Which occurred on August 13th.

They still have to figure out a way to delivery it. The Soviet ground to air missiles are getting much more numerous and deadly. The B29 is vulnerable as it was in Korea. Truman has given orders*to the JCS to figure out a way to win without the atomic bomb or even strategic bombing. See post 946.

[red1]

Originally Posted by Hairog

They should start production again from 9 months after the polonium attack Which occurred on August 13th.

They still have to figure out a way to delivery it. The Soviet ground to air missiles are getting much more numerous and deadly. The B29 is vulnerable as it was in Korea. Truman has given orders*to the JCS to figure out a way to win without the atomic bomb or even strategic bombing. See post 946.

The B-36 or B47 (later though), if your feeling really risky pack a very small nuke onto a Navaho missile.

[Seraph]

Originally Posted by Hairog

They should start production again from 9 months after the polonium attack Which occurred on August 13th.

They still have to figure out a way to delivery it. The Soviet ground to air missiles are getting much more numerous and deadly. The B29 is vulnerable as it was in Korea. Truman has given orders*to the JCS to figure out a way to win without the atomic bomb or even strategic bombing. See post 946.

Ummm...Think you have the wrong post there.
http://www.alternatehistory.com/disc...&postcount=946

I thought the B-29 mainly had issues against the Mig-15 which was designed to counter it with its heavy weapons. Is there another weapon system that the B-29 was vulnerable to? Or do you mean the manually guided Wasserfall?

[tallthinkev]

With the Labour Party I think on one side would be Atlee, Morrison, Callahan and Gaitskell plus others and the other Foot, Nye Bevin, Gallacher and Kirkwood and more. Any ideas about this?

[Hairog]

Originally Posted by Seraph

Ummm...Think you have the wrong post there.
http://www.alternatehistory.com/disc...&postcount=946

Sorry I meant post #840

I thought the B-29 mainly had issues against the Mig-15 which was designed to counter it with its heavy weapons. Is there another weapon system that the B-29 was vulnerable to? Or do you mean the manually guided Wasserfall?

Yes the Wasserfall (not manually guided the entire way), the X4 air launched missile (again not manually guided the entire way), the Mig 9, Yak 15, Me 262 and He 162. All of these combined mean the end of indiscriminate terror bombing of helpless victims on both sides.

Don't look for new super bombers to arrive in time. This war will be won by maneuver and strategy on the ground. This will not be an easy technological fix but a slugging match like WWII was. Like all modern wars are. Did we win in Korea with air power alone? How about Vietnam? Truman realizes this even if the generals do not and has other plans.

There is some fun coming as the air war heats up.

[tallthinkev]

We didn't win in Korea because the UN wouldn't let us.

[Seraph]

Originally Posted by Hairog

Yes the Wasserfall (not manually guided the entire way), the X4 air launched missile (again not manually guided the entire way), the Mig 9, Yak 15, Me 262 and He 162. All of these combined mean the end of indiscriminate terror bombing of helpless victims on both sides.

Saw that they got a guidance system from the Americans when later looked up the entries for the Wasserfall. What system was it curiously? I didn't see mentioned in my search.

[Top hats daily]

I've been running Computer vs. Computer scenarios of WWIII in three different periods of time, 1948, 1962, and 1989.

In the 1948 case, the computer completely ran the W. Allies down to Gibraltar, where slowly, nuclear weapons turned the tide by just a few nukes completely disrupting Russian supply lines, causing turmoil. The Allies, with free control over the seas, landed troops near Lisbon, and eventually, once Spain/Portugal was liberated, they landed in France, and diversionary landings throughout Europe disrupted the USSR, till uprisings in Germany, France, Nordic countries and various other areas caused the USSR to withdraw to Poland, where the scenario ended, the 1962 and 1989 scenarios were similar, Russian advance to the Rhine, before Russian supplies started struggling, and eventually were rolled back to pre-war lines. Just something interesting that I thought might come out to play later when the allies can assemble.

The 1948 scenario didn't have Wesserfalls though.

[Hairog]

Originally Posted by Top hats daily

I've been running Computer vs. Computer scenarios of WWIII in three different periods of time, 1948, 1962, and 1989.

In the 1948 case, the computer completely ran the W. Allies down to Gibraltar, where slowly, nuclear weapons turned the tide by just a few nukes completely disrupting Russian supply lines, causing turmoil. The Allies, with free control over the seas, landed troops near Lisbon, and eventually, once Spain/Portugal was liberated, they landed in France, and diversionary landings throughout Europe disrupted the USSR, till uprisings in Germany, France, Nordic countries and various other areas caused the USSR to withdraw to Poland, where the scenario ended, the 1962 and 1989 scenarios were similar, Russian advance to the Rhine, before Russian supplies started struggling, and eventually were rolled back to pre-war lines. Just something interesting that I thought might come out to play later when the allies can assemble.

The 1948 scenario didn't have Wesserfalls though.

What program/simulation/wargame are you using? I'm working on one using Time of Fury.

[dwalters]

By May of 1945 om OTL, much of German industrial production was smashed. But they still will rolling Tiger tanks off the assembly lines, they were still making basic steel and coal production was only hindered by virtue of the smashed transport but not destruction the mines. Electricity production was down in much of Germany but not all of Germany. The work force was still much intact though not as big as it was. Several million German workers in uniform were now demobilized and trying to get work, construction, even before the Marshall Plan was in full gear *even as troops were surrendering* into the summer months of '45 in OTL.

It can be expected that German industrial production, from primary processing (mining, refining, smelting) to actual finished war goods would be continuing. Agricultural production, which really took a huge hit without fertiizers and seeds, was still producing enough to feed the German population albeit in much reduced rations until about 1947 or 1948, I forget which.

So ALL this is not geared to suppliying Russian logistics. And in France...production at every level was higher than in Germany. You have to start looking at what the Rusisans are doing now in terms if existing plant and equipment, not to mention *personnel*, with, say, the entire French nation at their disposal. Add THIS into your computer and see what you come up with.

David

[Hairog]

Originally Posted by dwalters

By May of 1945 om OTL, much of German industrial production was smashed. But they still will rolling Tiger tanks off the assembly lines, they were still making basic steel and coal production was only hindered by virtue of the smashed transport but not destruction the mines. Electricity production was down in much of Germany but not all of Germany. The work force was still much intact though not as big as it was. Several million German workers in uniform were now demobilized and trying to get work, construction, even before the Marshall Plan was in full gear *even as troops were surrendering* into the summer months of '45 in OTL.

It can be expected that German industrial production, from primary processing (mining, refining, smelting) to actual finished war goods would be continuing. Agricultural production, which really took a huge hit without fertiizers and seeds, was still producing enough to feed the German population albeit in much reduced rations until about 1947 or 1948, I forget which.

So ALL this is not geared to suppliying Russian logistics. And in France...production at every level was higher than in Germany. You have to start looking at what the Rusisans are doing now in terms if existing plant and equipment, not to mention *personnel*, with, say, the entire French nation at their disposal. Add THIS into your computer and see what you come up with.

David

You are correct. The more research I do the better shape things seemed to be in Southern France for sure. Germany just ran out of raw materials not factory capacity or workers. Plenty of things to loot and plunder including trained workers. Western Europe is still a prize worth fighting over if for nothing else but keeping it from the other side.

[Herzen's love-child]

All of your Coca Cola is belong to us.....

I couldn't resist, I'm watching an old movie ("One,Two,Three") that stars Cagney, playing a soft drink exec in Berlin during the early Cold War. Much East Bloc lusting for Western products....

[dwalters]

Originally Posted by Hairog

You are correct. The more research I do the better shape things seemed to be in Southern France for sure. Germany just ran out of raw materials not factory capacity or workers. Plenty of things to loot and plunder including trained workers. Western Europe is still a prize worth fighting over if for nothing else but keeping it from the other side.

Generally destruction of French industrial facilities was limited to sabotage efforts by the Resistance (25% of whom, in terms of actual fighters, were Spanish veterans of the Spanish Revolution). Bombing raids by the US and British were focused on troop and transportation concentrations, not factories.

The Russians should be in a very good position. Oh, and French agriculture is probably running close to 60 to 67% in OTL by the liberation of Paris anyway, manpower being the biggest issue. So France in *part* could feed a lot of Russian troops...just as it did German troops during the Occupation.
David

[Hairog]

Originally Posted by dwalters

Generally destruction of French industrial facilities was limited to sabotage efforts by the Resistance (25% of whom, in terms of actual fighters, were Spanish veterans of the Spanish Revolution). Bombing raids by the US and British were focused on troop and transportation concentrations, not factories.

The Russians should be in a very good position. Oh, and French agriculture is probably running close to 60 to 67% in OTL by the liberation of Paris anyway, manpower being the biggest issue. So France in *part* could feed a lot of Russian troops...just as it did German troops during the Occupation.
David

Well what do you know someone else who gets it. Well put dwalters. As I've been saying all along the Joint Chiefs of Staff and any military planner I've ever seen predicted an easy Soviet overrun of Western Europe and being able to easily supply themselves. It's only in this and another forum where I've run across any hint of disagreement on these issues.

[dwalters]

that this is the only place people 'project' rather than 'understand' the historical reality.

For the time line here...NATO has to make a choice. It can continue to hit the same targets it did during OTL (as noted above) or focus on industrial facilities, most of whom would continue to turn out military material for Europes new masters.

Don't misunderstand, Germany *starved* after WWII ended, on strict rations, and this will continue. Don't expect Germany to be an agricultural wonderland as there is almost no manpower to plant, reap and harvest crops. I suspect this will be a drain on the war effort by the USSR but, can be alleviated somewhat from France and, neutrals who are willing to sell to the USSR (Argentina, Brazil, etc...and perhaps provide a stimulus to those economies as well!).

I'm not arguing things will be easy for the Red Army, but they are not the "about the collapse" scenarios hoped for by some, many, commentators here. That's not gonna happen. In fact I expect strikes and demonstrations against Red Army imposed austerity throughout France and the Low Countries (but not Germany). But these will be minor.

England will actually be stronger, IMO, now than it was during the 1940 Battle of Britain. Something the Russians have to consider invasion wise. They could also learn from Hitler's failure and do what Hitler should of done from a strategic POV and sue for peace with the UK, a 'stand down'. With no enemies anywhere else, really, out side of the fighting in Asia, the Russians can concentrate ALL their defensive capability in France and Low Coutries and not really have to worry about a D-Day repeat.

[tallthinkev]

What are the chances of another one of Stalin's purges when thing start to go tits up?

[Hairog]

Originally Posted by dwalters

that this is the only place people 'project' rather than 'understand' the historical reality.

For the time line here...NATO has to make a choice. It can continue to hit the same targets it did during OTL (as noted above) or focus on industrial facilities, most of whom would continue to turn out military material for Europes new masters.

NATO has studied the Strategic Bombing Survey and will use it extensively in their planning.

Don't misunderstand, Germany *starved* after WWII ended, on strict rations, and this will continue. Don't expect Germany to be an agricultural wonderland as there is almost no manpower to plant, reap and harvest crops. I suspect this will be a drain on the war effort by the USSR but, can be alleviated somewhat from France and, neutrals who are willing to sell to the USSR (Argentina, Brazil, etc...and perhaps provide a stimulus to those economies as well!).

As we now know the former Soviet Union is rich in resources.

I'm not arguing things will be easy for the Red Army, but they are not the "about the collapse" scenarios hoped for by some, many, commentators here. That's not gonna happen. In fact I expect strikes and demonstrations against Red Army imposed austerity throughout France and the Low Countries (but not Germany). But these will be minor.

I suspect you are right.

England will actually be stronger, IMO, now than it was during the 1940 Battle of Britain. Something the Russians have to consider invasion wise. They could also learn from Hitler's failure and do what Hitler should of done from a strategic POV and sue for peace with the UK, a 'stand down'. With no enemies anywhere else, really, out side of the fighting in Asia, the Russians can concentrate ALL their defensive capability in France and Low Coutries and not really have to worry about a D-Day repeat.

The Soviet plan is to indeed neutralise Britain by gaining control over her skies and then forcing a kind of Finlandization over her. Then nature will take it's natural course and the British people will see the folly of Capitalism when the rest of Europe blossoms under the brilliant leadership of Stalin. Then they will overthrow their corporate masters and join the workers paradise created on the continent.

Africa and South America will follow leaving America standing alone against the world and then they too will bow to the inevitable and throw off the shackles of Capitalism in time. Thus fulfilling the predictions of Marx and Lenin and all under the leadership of Stalin...

At least that's the plan.

[BELFAST]

What happen to the Nuremberg Trials?

Did the trial continue behind Nato lines or were they postponed till after the war?

or are people like Karl Dönitz and Albert Speer now working for Nato?