Alternate colonizers of Siberia?

[MarshalBraginsky]

So in this case, the Siberian lands may end up as part of the Qing. Is it necessary for the Jurchens/Manchus to conquer China or could they be persuaded to turn elsewhere?

[scholar]

Originally Posted by MarshalBraginsky

So in this case, the Siberian lands may end up as part of the Qing. Is it necessary for the Jurchens/Manchus to conquer China or could they be persuaded to turn elsewhere?

The Jianzhou Jurchens were amongst the most sinicized groups in the world, behind perhaps only the Koreans who viewed themselves as "little china." The Haixi Jurchen were more nomadic and the Wild Jurchen had avoided most Chinese influence. The unity of them into the Manchu state was rather abrupt, all things considered.

With the conquest of China, almost everything was aligned to allow their take over, seemingly backed by Heaven (and their conquest giving them stability instead of rampant chaotic civil war) the Confucian scholar gentry backed them. Should this change, and the Han armies and Gentry reject the Jurchen, and they are limited to only the outermost fringes of Chinese territory, they could easily move elsewhere. The Manchu's conquered the Mongols and claimed their title of Khan (and ended the Yuan remnant), its possible they could do it again (though less likely). If the Ming, or a successor state, gained the power to project north it wouldn't be impossible to push the Manchu/Jurchen state north, though the more north they go the less population they'll have and the less unity, and disproportionately less powerful threat to China. They would essentially become Bei Di, while leaving Southern Siberia with the Jurchens, they would be outside of direct Chinese control possibly becoming a tributary. If they do, and the Chinese state maintains the modernization or rifles and cannons that had been occurring under the Ming and Early Qing, the they would protect them should another Barbarian attack them.

[MarshalBraginsky]

Originally Posted by scholar

The Jianzhou Jurchens were amongst the most sinicized groups in the world, behind perhaps only the Koreans who viewed themselves as "little china." The Haixi Jurchen were more nomadic and the Wild Jurchen had avoided most Chinese influence. The unity of them into the Manchu state was rather abrupt, all things considered.

With the conquest of China, almost everything was aligned to allow their take over, seemingly backed by Heaven (and their conquest giving them stability instead of rampant chaotic civil war) the Confucian scholar gentry backed them. Should this change, and the Han armies and Gentry reject the Jurchen, and they are limited to only the outermost fringes of Chinese territory, they could easily move elsewhere. The Manchu's conquered the Mongols and claimed their title of Khan (and ended the Yuan remnant), its possible they could do it again (though less likely). If the Ming, or a successor state, gained the power to project north it wouldn't be impossible to push the Manchu/Jurchen state north, though the more north they go the less population they'll have and the less unity, and disproportionately less powerful threat to China. They would essentially become Bei Di, while leaving Southern Siberia with the Jurchens, they would be outside of direct Chinese control possibly becoming a tributary. If they do, and the Chinese state maintains the modernization or rifles and cannons that had been occurring under the Ming and Early Qing, the they would protect them should another Barbarian attack them.

So how could the Gentry and the Han armies reject the Jurchens? It might have been impossible for them to reject the Jurchens since they pretty much took over China while having Chinese soldiers fight for the Eight Banner Armies. What would the effect be if the Jurchens are rejected? If that is the case, then the fate of Siberia would still be left hanging.

[scholar]

Originally Posted by MarshalBraginsky

So how could the Gentry and the Han armies reject the Jurchens? It might have been impossible for them to reject the Jurchens since they pretty much took over China while having Chinese soldiers fight for the Eight Banner Armies. What would the effect be if the Jurchens are rejected? If that is the case, then the fate of Siberia would still be left hanging.

Being rejected would have to occur before the invasion, or have their control be less stable in the initial stages leading to a coup by the gentry that has a stable outcome. The Jurchens become less sinicized, and if they unify, they will become more akin to the Mongols rather than the Chinese.

[MarshalBraginsky]

Originally Posted by scholar

Being rejected would have to occur before the invasion, or have their control be less stable in the initial stages leading to a coup by the gentry that has a stable outcome. The Jurchens become less sinicized, and if they unify, they will become more akin to the Mongols rather than the Chinese.

In this case, the Jurchens would have to somehow become more involved with Mongol affairs in order to be less Sinicized. I can imagine the Jurchens forming an alliance (or dynastic marriage) with the Northern Yuan sometime before say, 1612. Combine that with a more stable line of succession in Ming China. Or would that not work?

[scholar]

Originally Posted by MarshalBraginsky

In this case, the Jurchens would have to somehow become more involved with Mongol affairs in order to be less Sinicized. I can imagine the Jurchens forming an alliance (or dynastic marriage) with the Northern Yuan sometime before say, 1612. Combine that with a more stable line of succession in Ming China. Or would that not work?

The Jurchens and the Mongols had very friendly relations with one another. There were three main groups in the Banner's system. Apart from manchus and chinese, there were the Mongolians. There's no reason why it wouldn't, though typically speaking Mongol succession was far messier than the others.

[MarshalBraginsky]

Originally Posted by scholar

The Jurchens and the Mongols had very friendly relations with one another. There were three main groups in the Banner's system. Apart from manchus and chinese, there were the Mongolians. There's no reason why it wouldn't, though typically speaking Mongol succession was far messier than the others.

Especially if the succession involved a civil war that pitted four Khanates against each other. Is there a time period that is suitable for the Jurchens' De-Sinicization? Moreover, would it be possible for the Jurchens to create a similar corps to the Ottoman Janissaries with use of shock troops? I bet that is the only thing that they lacked is a corps full of well trained infantry.

[FDW]

Originally Posted by democracy101

Meanwhile, Korea had slight, although unlikely possibilities, in attempting to expand into Manchuria after 1000. We already established on another thread that in the early 12th century, Goryeo could have potentially seized significant areas of southern Manchuria if it had managed to maneuver the tribes in Manchuria. Also, in line with the above response that I made to MarshalBraginsky, Gwanghaegun or another skilled diplomat/military leader could have potentially done so as well.

Could I get a link to this discussion? It would be very useful for what I'm trying to accomplish for a TL.

[democracy101]

Originally Posted by MarshalBraginsky

So in this case Joseon would not come even remotely close to taking bits of Siberia.

Not really. If there was no Imjin War, then Joseon would have most likely allied with the Ming against the Manchus, then Russia. The result would be a remote possibility of Korea initially gaining portions of southern/eastern Manchuria, then expanding into what is now Primorsky Krai, and possibly reaching the Sea of Okhotsk. Because Joseon would have a population of about 10-15 million by the mid-17th century and around 15-20 by the end of the century after settlement and growth, the initial amount that would have been settled in Manchuria/Siberia would be about 1-3 million. For comparison, tens of thousands of Joseon farmers settled in Manchuria although they were technically forbidden from doing so by the Qing. However, like the other scenarios, the possibility that all of the events would fall into place is very unlikely.

Originally Posted by scholar

I am well aware of that, however this does not negate the point at all. The conquest of Xinjiang and Tibet were not costly and exhaustive affairs. Once the Qing sent out its armies, the situation was relatively settled right away. The main problem was getting the Qing to have the motivation to do so. In fact, Tibet's semi-independence was a useful tool in dealing with the Mongols, which had been dealt with by the Qing on a number of occasions. In Xinjiang the situation was still seen as Barbarians in Barbarian territory, it was only through Qing dominance of the Mongols and the Oriat that led to the its eventual destruction. Yes, I understand that 'relatively settled' still involved costly affairs, and years of campaigning, but in the grand scheme of the Qing's history as well as the nature of similar campaigns with previous Dynasties.

Further, the distinction between Manchuria and Siberia are based on cultural perceptions. As I said before, if the Qing actually cared about Siberia with a change in culture so that it recognized another state's taking the territory as something more than Barbarians taking Barbarian territory then colonization could be made. The Qing restriction of immigration to Manchuria was based on culture and a sort of segregation between the Manchurians and the native Chinese (mostly Han, but not quite all Han, though Han being a fluid concept that its mostly semantics to try to distinguish them from similar groups).

Well, I still don't think this answers the question of why or how the Jurchen/Manchu would want to merely view the Chinese as barbarians and do nothing if the former was outnumbered by almost 100:1. Also, the fact that the Qing essentially committed a genocide against the Dzungar population suggests that the inhabitants in what later became Xinjiang put up stiff resistance. Meanwhile, Tibet was successfully invaded, but it was not ruled directly due to its geographic isolation, and the Qing failed to take Nepal, Burma, or Siam, which were probably more important to the Qing than exploring Siberia. Considering that even with segregation, the Manchus were culturally assimilated by the Chinese, it would be almost illogical for the Manchus to just let the Chinese populate areas that they control in Siberia. If they did so, then the Manchus would be essentially surrounded by Chinese from the north and south, making them vulnerable to a potential Chinese resurgence in the future.

In order for the Manchus to expand into Siberia, they would most likely need to be repelled from China proper, which would force them to travel north if they managed to survive conflicts with the Ming and Joseon. However, this has nothing to do with how China would expand into Siberia.

Originally Posted by scholar

The Imjin War was not even remotely the primary reason for Japan's withdrawal from the outside world. Rather, growing European influence, influential Catholic converts, and the fall of the Toyotomi. In the campaigns between the Tokugawa and the Toyotomi a vast majority of the Christian Daimyo would stand in support of the Toyotomi. Further, there was a small terror that Spain wanted to conquer them. This, along with various political changes under the Tokugawa Shogunate, not only led to persecution against Christians (not a new thing), but the complete reversion to shunning the outside world maintaining only brief, incredibly brief, trade with Europe while using Okinawa as a halfway station of sorts between the Chinese Markets and Japan. Cultural and Technological regression were also enforced, recent constructs, designed to prevent future conflicts within Japan to threaten the power of the Tokugawa. Very little to do with the Imjin War, which was a costly affair that may have cost the Toyotomi their control, but not what turned Japan into a backward state.

Further, the Japanese don't have to take Korea to continue colonial ambition. The Ryukyu Kingdom is simply one example, and the Ezochi March of the Matsumae is another. Should Japan's cultural outlook change, expansion to, at the very least, various close by island chains and trade relations with Siberia is likely. Further, even if we were to rest the blame entirely on the Imjin War, one cannot state that the Imjin War was at all a likely event. Rather it was a product of the Sengoku Era, which in turn was highly dependent upon a number of complex events preceding it. (Such as the fall of the Shugo, the Weakening of the Ashikaga, and the rise of necessary families.) Culture can change very easily in such times of societal revolution.

I was talking about a divergence shortly after the Senkoku period began, although I see your point. However, foreign influence would probably not be butterflied away, and if the Europeans were equally intrusive, Japan would probably also be xenophobic no matter who was in control at the time. I also never said that Japan needed to conquer Korea, and I personally believe that it would have been almost impossible to do so due to the numerous guerilla activities. However, if Japan decided to look north, then west from Hokkaido and potentially Sakhalin, I guess it would be possible, although it would probably be limited to trade with tribes in Siberia rather than actual takeover or maintaining colonies. The gradual expansion would also take decades or centuries, allowing Russia to step in by that time.

Originally Posted by scholar

The Goryeo could have expanded into Manchuria, but it would have to take place during the Liao's conflicts with the Jurchen. When both of them were weak they could make significant inroads. They could not, however, outright conquer either party nor even remotely contain them if they tried. Pressure from the Song, no doubt eager to advance in the wake of its most dangerous rival's collapse to recover the 16 prefectures, would keep their gains to a minimal. Attempting it during the Jin-Song wars would be particularly suicidal once the fighting calms (which it always does, normally in stalemate or one side edging out a slight victory [exceptions being Yue Fei and the Jin's rapid reconquest of Middle China]. Again, they could capitalize, but they would not reach Outer Manchuria just with that and hope to control it.

I thought we already agreed that Goryeo could only have expanded into Manchuria either shortly before or during the Liao's conflicts with the Jurchen, so I really don't see why you're making the points after that. My point was that if Goryeo did manage to gain territory in southern Manchuria, it could have more successfully expanded under a capable ruler during Joseon or another dynasty that would correspond to it, and somehow manage to reach Siberia afterwards.

Originally Posted by FDW

Could I get a link to this discussion? It would be very useful for what I'm trying to accomplish for a TL.

Sure. By the way, let me know if you have any questions.

[FDW]

Originally Posted by democracy101

I thought we already agreed that Goryeo could only have expanded into Manchuria either shortly before or during the Liao's conflicts with the Jurchen, so I really don't see why you're making the points after that. My point was that if Goryeo did manage to gain territory in southern Manchuria, it could have more successfully expanded under a capable ruler during Joseon or another dynasty that would correspond to it, and somehow manage to reach Siberia afterwards.

democracy101, could you please point me towards the thread where this conversation occurred? It would be real nice if you could.

[democracy101]

Originally Posted by FDW

democracy101, could you please point me towards the thread where this conversation occurred? It would be real nice if you could.

I edited my post above as soon as I saw yours, and let me know if you have any more questions about the scenario you're trying to create.

[elkarlo]

Originally Posted by kasumigenx

China or Japan could colonize the far east if they were given time, I think Korea/Joseon has designs on Yeonhaeju as well.

It'd take many a year for Japan to colonize Siberia. They were just really finishing settling Hokkaido in the late 1800's. I think China/a unified Korea would be far more likely.

[FDW]

Originally Posted by democracy101

I edited my post above as soon as I saw yours, and let me know if you have any more questions about the scenario you're trying to create.

I might ask you something, but not yet.

Originally Posted by elkarlo

It'd take many a year for Japan to colonize Siberia. They were just really finishing settling Hokkaido in the late 1800's. I think China/a unified Korea would be far more likely.

The thing with Hokkaido in regards to Japan was not lack of ability, but really lack of will. Japan for the most part (Or in this case the Date clan), was generally uninterested in the "barbarian" Hokkaido until the Europeans started sniffing around. I think it's actually very possible for Japan to colonize Hokkaido much sooner than OTL.

[zraith]

Originally Posted by elkarlo

It'd take many a year for Japan to colonize Siberia. They were just really finishing settling Hokkaido in the late 1800's. I think China/a unified Korea would be far more likely.

I think the reason it took so long for Japan to colonize Hokkaido is social norms that developed to limit it and possible decrees/laws. The opposite of what US did in colonizing "the West," without the backing of the US government it would have taken a lot longer for settlers to spread towards the Pacific and OTL demographics of the Central Plains and the West Coast would have been very different.

I say its a toss up between all three, with Korea and Japan being more likely to expand than China. All three have potential, though colonization would be dependent on the backing of either local lords and/or the central governing body financially and with supportive decrees/laws. With China there is the cultural mindset of the Central/Middle Kingdom (Zhongguo) that would have to be overcome (which began forming a lot earlier then Japan's isolation policies).

[MarshalBraginsky]

Would China proper include what is now Manchuria? I'm not sure if the manchus would have been able to maintain their lands while Joseon farmers and artisans would have migrated up north. Could the Manchus have also adopted a few of the Joseon's institutions just to survive?

[scholar]

Originally Posted by democracy101

Well, I still don't think this answers the question of why or how the Jurchen/Manchu would want to merely view the Chinese as barbarians and do nothing if the former was outnumbered by almost 100:1. Also, the fact that the Qing essentially committed a genocide against the Dzungar population suggests that the inhabitants in what later became Xinjiang put up stiff resistance. Meanwhile, Tibet was successfully invaded, but it was not ruled directly due to its geographic isolation, and the Qing failed to take Nepal, Burma, or Siam, which were probably more important to the Qing than exploring Siberia. Considering that even with segregation, the Manchus were culturally assimilated by the Chinese, it would be almost illogical for the Manchus to just let the Chinese populate areas that they control in Siberia. If they did so, then the Manchus would be essentially surrounded by Chinese from the north and south, making them vulnerable to a potential Chinese resurgence in the future.

Who said that?

Stiff resistance is subjective, there were a couple of rebellions some of which lasted for years, but resistance against the Qing was sporadic and a few decades after the conquest were comparatively weak and divided.

Genocide isn't an exceptional thing inside of Chinese war history, regular campaigns involved massacring entire provinces, laying wastes to entire cities, and enslaving the population of entire tribes. It is not indicative of stiff resistance, but of an age old tradition. Examples of this can be found in the very foundation of the Qing State.

Outer Tibet was absorbed by the Qing, inner tibet was given autonomy, again partially because of Mongolic relations and partially because there's no cultural motivation to conquer it. In fact, it was useful being semi-independent.

Burma is mostly mountainous jungle terrain that's surprisingly thickly populated for the region, and the wars between the Qing and Burma lasted less than five years.

Nepal is beyond the Himalayas, I do not fault the Qing for being unable to conquer it. However, if you're referring to this war, then the Qing won as far as I'm aware.

Siam didn't border the Qing Dynasty... The most that happened was an indirect border created by various buffer tributary states.

Also, its important to note that the Qing settled into the Zhongguo style of though in regards to the world. Everything not Chinese were Barbarians, its just that Mongolians and Manchurians were Chinese in their books. I mean, here's a letter that the Qing Emperor wrote to the King George III... This meant that subjugation was the primary goal, and when this collapsed in the wake of European expansion into the East it was something they could not really cope with. Not to mention the Qing government was going into rapid decline in the 19th century, it was not something that's indicative of the state as a whole, which reached its peak in the 17th and early 18th century.

Originally Posted by democracy101

In order for the Manchus to expand into Siberia, they would most likely need to be repelled from China proper, which would force them to travel north if they managed to survive conflicts with the Ming and Joseon. However, this has nothing to do with how China would expand into Siberia.

I was actually attempting to aim this towards the Chinese Qing Dynasty (I view the sinicized regime as Chinese culturally) going further north. However, if they did manage to survive those conflicts and flee further north then we have a Jurchen colonizer. Later on it is possible for the Chinese to subjugate said Jurchen state and bingo.

There are other ways to go about this. The Northern Yuan Dynasty [not OTL, but a separate one from a different hypothetical fall of the Yuan Dynasty] could maintain its control over itself, which included much of what's considered Southern Siberia, for several centuries against a Southern Chinese Dynasty, allowing for the Northern Yuan to properly sinicize and spread sedentary civilization north [not universal, but widespread enough to govern. Maybe 1/5 of the population]. Later on the Southern Chinese or the Northern Yuan could conquer the other and create another Chinese State which contains Siberia.

Originally Posted by democracy101

I was talking about a divergence shortly after the Senkoku period began, although I see your point. However, foreign influence would probably not be butterflied away, and if the Europeans were equally intrusive, Japan would probably also be xenophobic no matter who was in control at the time. I also never said that Japan needed to conquer Korea, and I personally believe that it would have been almost impossible to do so due to the numerous guerilla activities. However, if Japan decided to look north, then west from Hokkaido and potentially Sakhalin, I guess it would be possible, although it would probably be limited to trade with tribes in Siberia rather than actual takeover or maintaining colonies. The gradual expansion would also take decades or centuries, allowing Russia to step in by that time.

Japan was Xenophobic because of fears, and said fears were not so much of the Europeans (though there was a legitimate scare from the Tokugawa with the Spanish), but rather how the various Daimyo of peacetime were gaining vast amounts of wealth, prestige, and amassing modern technologies. Not to mention becoming Christian. It was the fear of another war that led to said regression. The Xenophobia was a consequence of the radical persecution and essentially brainwashing that came about during the Edo Shogunate. Otherwise it was entirely possible that Western Japan, including Kyushu, would rebel with the backing of the Portuguese or the Spanish armed with European Naval Cannons and bringing with it the sword of Christiandom to tear down the Tokugawa and replace it with a Western Friendly Shogunate, one which would be entirely open to expansion and trade. The Tokugawa were terrified of Masamune Date forming an alliance with European Nations, especially after it sponsored the first Japanese expedition to circumnavigate the world and visit Spain and the Pope, though this fear wasn't as well founded as some of the others.

The conquest of the Ryukyu and the Ainu didn't take long once Japan decided to do it. In fact, the conquest of the Okinawa Island Chain was done by just a single Daimyo on the Southern edge of Kyushu, not the whole of Japan.

Originally Posted by democracy101

I thought we already agreed that Goryeo could only have expanded into Manchuria either shortly before or during the Liao's conflicts with the Jurchen, so I really don't see why you're making the points after that. My point was that if Goryeo did manage to gain territory in southern Manchuria, it could have more successfully expanded under a capable ruler during Joseon or another dynasty that would correspond to it, and somehow manage to reach Siberia afterwards.

I thought I basically just repeated myself, and since this is a new topic doing that isn't exactly a bad thing.

I would, however, strongly stress that Goryeo would most likely never actually do that. Not with pressure from the Jurchen, possible Liao remnants, or the Song. I believe back in the old topic I suggested a possible way to get around this would be have the Song collapse on itself. Once again, we aren't really disagreeing with each other. I'm just saying its really, really, not likely.

[MarshalBraginsky]

Northern Yuan would be the best candidate to expand further north probably because they're the closest to the Mongol heartland.

[scholar]

Originally Posted by MarshalBraginsky

Northern Yuan would be the best candidate to expand further north probably because they're the closest to the Mongol heartland.

Because they were Mongols.

[MarshalBraginsky]

So realistically, could we end up with a bigger Mongol state that includes Siberia through the Northern Yuan? Alternatively, would the Northern Yuan actually be absorbed by the Manchus?

[zraith]

What about the continued existence of the Khanate of Sibir?