WI: Gore wins in 2000

[John Farson]

My idea on how 2004 with a President Gore might have gone, presuming that McCain were the GOP nominee and that 9/11 occurred as IOTL:



Gore-Lieberman 347 EV
McCain-? 191 EV

This scenario presumes that Bin Laden hasn't been killed/captured yet, there is no war in Iraq and there is a stronger commitment in Afghanistan. It also presumes that McCain doesn't pick someone like Palin as his running mate. Like Bush in OTL, Gore is helped by the post 9/11 national unity that slowly erodes as the months and years go by and political tribalism returns. However, without a costly war in Iraq and with Afghanistan still generally regarded as a justified and successful effort, Gore is in no way near as weak a position as Bush IOTL, so his margin of victory is greater as a result.

Notice that though the electoral vote may look relatively close (compared to past re-elections), the popular vote margin may well be greater. I think 2004 would still be a little too early for Virginia and North Carolina to go blue, though they may be more competitive. I think this time Tennessee would go for Gore, though, due to his incumbency leading to a stronger home state factor than OTL 2000, though it would still be close. Of course, if OBL is killed/captured before the election or McCain nominates 2004's version of Palin or something else happens, the result could be very much different.