We're Alright - An Alternate History

[AlfieJ]

V
BLACK WEDNESDAY
The Events of September 16th 1992 and its Aftermath

“We had no other choice”

- John Smith on pulling out of the ERM in a 1993 interview

The events of September 16th 1992 were the most damaging to not only the Labour Government but also the Conservative Opposition. The collapse of the pound sterling and the subsequent government’s decision to pull out of the ERM (a decision made by Smith and Kinnock while Brown pressed the issue of Labour no longer being known as a tax and spend party) had left a huge backlash on the young Kinnock ministry.

Both right and left leaning Conservatives saw Black Wednesday, as it was later called, a clear example of Labour’s poor handling of economics. Though some euro – sceptics saw it as a saviour from Britain becoming more and more entwined in the EU.

Though during numerous attacks on the government during PMQ’s Neil Kinnock did not cease to empathize that the Tories had left Labour to “inherit this economic time bomb”.

From the Left Tony Benn and George Galloway criticized the government for its lack of initiative for reforming the ERM as soon as getting into government, as well as calling Smith’s chancellorship “staunch right wing economics which has betrayed the working class”.

The newly enlarged Liberals remained divided on the issue, though their leader, Paddy Ashdown showed his sympathies for the struggling government.
But no political spin or speech could change what had happened. £3.4 billion had been lost not to mention the £27 billion spent just on propping up the sinking pound. It was a disaster for not only the economy but also for the reputation of the Labour Party.

Support for Labour collapsed, but luckily for them the Conservative support also failed to rise. The new season of Spitting Image unsurprisingly did nothing to help, the first episode showed the new government waking up in No. 10 confused and unaware of what had happened, John Major was now always seen with a different woman on his arm and Michael Heseltine became a soft spoken, vicar type character trying to control a party constantly brawling with one another.

But then, by early October, one of the most controversial events in British Political history took place, the vote of confidence against Neil Kinnock.

[Chris Oakley]

I may have missed something, but what in the name of David Cameron is an ERM?

[Blackadder mk 2]

Originally Posted by Chris Oakley

I may have missed something, but what in the name of David Cameron is an ERM?

European Rate Mechanism, there were some political arguments about whether we should go in and when we did, everything basically went balls up for the economy.

[MrwBrightside]

Funny you should mention David Cameron, since he was working as a SPAD at the Treasury on the night of the ERM crisis, and can be seen in some news footage of the Chancellor's statement to the press outside the Treasury.

[The Red]

Originally Posted by MrwBrightside

Funny you should mention David Cameron, since he was working as a SPAD at the Treasury on the night of the ERM crisis, and can be seen in some news footage of the Chancellor's statement to the press outside the Treasury.

He looks tired out, poor thing.

[stodge]

One or two observations - first, it's a fascinating subject and too many attempts have been "Labour gets in, gets ruined by Black Wednesday and then get voted out" and, as we know, it's rarely as simple as that.

I don't see Lamont as a challenger in 1992 - he was thrown out of the Cabinet by Major and had very little support in the Party. I agree Heseltine is the most likely winner of a post-Major 1992 contest.

The Right was in disarray after the fall of Thatcher and the apparent betrayal of John Major - Michael Howard and Peter Lilley might well have challenged but it's hard to see them overcoming the advantages Heseltine had.

The events of September 1992 are complex - yes, Labour were as enthausiastic about the ERM as the Tories but a devaluation within the mechanism was offered the weekend before which could have prevented the catastrophic ejection of Britain from the ERM. I just wonder whether John Smith would have taken that option.

After thirteen years of Government, the defeated Tories are going to need time to regroup and rebuild - they lost over 100 seats in the election though it seems no one prominent. I do think the choice of Heath as Party Chairman is curious to say the least.

[AlfieJ]

Originally Posted by stodge

One or two observations - first, it's a fascinating subject and too many attempts have been "Labour gets in, gets ruined by Black Wednesday and then get voted out" and, as we know, it's rarely as simple as that.

I don't see Lamont as a challenger in 1992 - he was thrown out of the Cabinet by Major and had very little support in the Party. I agree Heseltine is the most likely winner of a post-Major 1992 contest.

The Right was in disarray after the fall of Thatcher and the apparent betrayal of John Major - Michael Howard and Peter Lilley might well have challenged but it's hard to see them overcoming the advantages Heseltine had.

The events of September 1992 are complex - yes, Labour were as enthausiastic about the ERM as the Tories but a devaluation within the mechanism was offered the weekend before which could have prevented the catastrophic ejection of Britain from the ERM. I just wonder whether John Smith would have taken that option.

After thirteen years of Government, the defeated Tories are going to need time to regroup and rebuild - they lost over 100 seats in the election though it seems no one prominent. I do think the choice of Heath as Party Chairman is curious to say the least.

In reply to your questions. Yes Heseltine is the most likely to win and thats why he did in my TL.

On the ERM, it's very unlikely that John Smith would have gone for devaluation seeing as Labour were determined to not be the tax and spend party they were before.

And Heath... i dont know really.

[iainbhx]

Originally Posted by AlfieJ

In reply to your questions. Yes Heseltine is the most likely to win and thats why he did in my TL.

On the ERM, it's very unlikely that John Smith would have gone for devaluation seeing as Labour were determined to not be the tax and spend party they were before.

And Heath... i dont know really.

Heath being Conservative Party Chairman is a very strange choice, even assuming that he would end The Great Sulk to take such a position.

[AlfieJ]

Originally Posted by iainbhx

Heath being Conservative Party Chairman is a very strange choice, even assuming that he would end The Great Sulk to take such a position.

who do you think would?

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by stodge

The events of September 1992 are complex - yes, Labour were as enthausiastic about the ERM as the Tories but a devaluation within the mechanism was offered the weekend before which could have prevented the catastrophic ejection of Britain from the ERM. I just wonder whether John Smith would have taken that option.

On this, Labour were definitely very sensitive about being known as the Party of Devaluation. Remember the fuss over "The pound in your pocket ..." from the Sixties?
In fact, from the Gold Standard issue of the Thirties, through devaluation in the Forties and devaluation in the Sixties, it really seemed a hot-button subject for many senior Labour figures. When push came to shove, I'd expect that very few of the Labour Cabinet would actually choose devaluation.

[AlfieJ]

Originally Posted by AndyC

On this, Labour were definitely very sensitive about being known as the Party of Devaluation. Remember the fuss over "The pound in your pocket ..." from the Sixties?
In fact, from the Gold Standard issue of the Thirties, through devaluation in the Forties and devaluation in the Sixties, it really seemed a hot-button subject for many senior Labour figures. When push came to shove, I'd expect that very few of the Labour Cabinet would actually choose devaluation.

What he said.

[Lord Douglas]

Actually V-J made a very good post as to potential Tory leaders after a 1992 defeat (which was why I mentioned him in my initial post but I couldn't find the relevant thread). I don't think Heseltine would definitely be the favourite for the leadership due to his political assassination of Thatcher, but he would be in a strong position provided that he attempted to bring sections of the right into his tent. This is why I find this socially liberal, Europhile prospectus that you have him running on implausible, at least as the basis of a winning platform. Here's the thread:

http://alternatehistory.com/discussi...light=Portillo

EDIT: Also, Lamont wouldn't have been kicked out of the Cabinet as Black Wednesday hadn't yet happened on his watch, but he might have gotten a share of the blame for what was looking like a possible Tory defeat before Major's affair leaked out.

[AlfieJ]

Originally Posted by Lord Douglas

Actually V-J made a very good post as to potential Tory leaders after a 1992 defeat (which was why I mentioned him in my initial post but I couldn't find the relevant thread). I don't think Heseltine would definitely be the favourite for the leadership due to his political assassination of Thatcher, but he would be in a strong position provided that he attempted to bring sections of the right into his tent. This is why I find this socially liberal, Europhile prospectus that you have him running on implausible, at least as the basis of a winning platform. Here's the thread:

http://alternatehistory.com/discussi...light=Portillo

EDIT: Also, Lamont wouldn't have been kicked out of the Cabinet as Black Wednesday hadn't yet happened on his watch, but he might have gotten a share of the blame for what was looking like a possible Tory defeat before Major's affair leaked out.

If you go back a page you will discover my editing.

[AlfieJ]

VI
A SENSE OF BETRAYAL
The Downfall of Neil Kinnock


“My nine years as leader had brought me to this, the Leftists that tried to destroy the Labour Party, destroyed my premiership”

- Taken from Neil Kinnock’s memoirs; “Out of the Wilderness: My Time in office”

By early October 1992, the Neil Kinnock was in dire straits. The economy was still shattered by Black Wednesday and so was Labour’s popularity. 5 MPs had already defected to the Lib Dems, so that if the curtain fell, they wouldn’t be in the firing line. Over in US, President Bush had used the events of Black Wednesday as a propaganda tool against Bill Clinton, declaring: “liberal economics will destroy America like it has done to Britain”.

Following intense attacks from the media, Conservatives, Liberals and some Left Wing back benchers, it was almost not a surprise when Heseltine finally called for a vote of confidence in early October 1992. But what was a surprise was the rebellion of 14 Labour MPs against the government.

“We believed it was time to make our voice heard”

- Tony Benn in a 2012 interview

“On the bleak morning of October 3rd 1992, Michael Heseltine, leader of the Opposition stood up from the opposition front bench and laid out a stack of papers on the dispatch box.
“Mr Speaker,” he began, “From the recent events of last month and the consequential aftermath, I must declare that I hold of no confidence in the Labour Government, and herby call a vote against it.””

- Taken from the Political thriller; “The Fall of the Red House” by Robert Harris
an account of the vote of confidence against Neil Kinnock

The events following Michael Heseltine’s announcement was a blur for the Government. Questions were raised on whom they could rely on when the vote came, whether Ashdown could be reasoned with and whether, no matter what outcome, it was time for Kinnock to go.


The vote was carried out the next day. It was an uneasy time for the government, everyone in the house eyed the other to see how they would vote. One of the most infamous moments was when Tony Benn, George Galloway and 12 others walked passed the Government’s front bench, smiling and nodding towards Neil Kinnock as they joined the line to vote against him.


Vote of Confidence Results:

651 votes cast

For:

• 327 (Labour)

Against:

• 300 (Conservative, Liberal and Left Wing Labour)
Abstained:

• 9 (Nationalists)


The vote had failed. Kinnock had survived. But a heavy blow had been dealt towards him, in interviews following the vote, he was no longer his happy boyish self, he had become grey and aged. Rumours were already circulating that his health was falling. His smile was now a weak one, like that of John Major’s four months before. Already those in the House new the end had come.

“He had become a shell of what he once was”

- Roy Hattersley in a 2012 interview

And so, four long weeks after the vote of confidence, at the end of PMQ’s he stood up and addressed the house.

“Friends and colleagues of the house, I must tell you now that at the end of this Parliamentary session, I shall be going to Westminster to tender my resignation as Prime Minister to Her Majesty the Queen.

I do this, due to ill health and my belief that due to the recent vote of confidence against me, I have failed in my service to this country. I trust my successor, the Right Honourable John Smith, Chancellor of the Exchequer, shall continue pushing forward the progressive values of the Labour Party, and serve this country like the Prime Minister I was unable to become.”

That short speech became on the most famous in British Political history. The very moment itself was broadcast live as breaking news on both the BBC and ITV. The most famous image of the entire broadcast was of an exhausted Neil Kinnock, slumping back into the front bench, signs of tears, beginning to form in the corners of his eyes.


TO BE CONTINUED...

[iainbhx]

Well, "Left Wing Labour" will have expelled themselves there.

And now we have a Labour coronation rather than a leadership contest.

I see further troubles ahead.

[AlfieJ]

Originally Posted by iainbhx

Well, "Left Wing Labour" will have expelled themselves there.

And now we have a Labour coronation rather than a leadership contest.

I see further troubles ahead.

Indeed my friend... indeed...

[AlfieJ]

Thoughts? Anybody?

[MrHuman]

Well, I like it so far, and I'm subscribed.

[The Red]

Originally Posted by AlfieJ

Thoughts? Anybody?

I think the backlash over Black Wednesday is a bit too dramatic, there's also no real reason for the left to suddenly turn suicidal. Seven defections to the Lib Dems is a bit over the top as well.

The Government would face a drop in support, but the Conservatives would face part, if not most the blame. Kinnock would be shaken but he'd survive comfortably.

[AlfieJ]

Originally Posted by The Red

I think the backlash over Black Wednesday is a bit too dramatic, there's also no real reason for the left to suddenly turn suicidal. Seven defections to the Lib Dems is a bit over the top as well.

The Government would face a drop in support, but the Conservatives would face part, if not most the blame. Kinnock would be shaken but he'd survive comfortably.

Editing will begin shortly.

Also, who says it's suicidal?