Anwar Sadat shot and killed in Jerusalem in 1977

[black angel]

Originally Posted by GarethC

Israeli security forces would have swiftly engaged and killed the assassin, revealed to be a "Palestinian terrorist". Really. It would be in all the papers. Very sad, how the Palestinians would stoop to anything to stop peace, you can't trust Arafat, Abu Nidal was probably behind it, yadda-yadda, America must stand`strong behind its ally, only democracy in Middle East, peace through strength and more F-15 sales, business as usual. You'd probably get everyone from the Real Black September to the Judaean People's Front claiming responsibility for it anyway.

Begin would step down over the embarrassing failure of the IDF to safeguard this opportunity for peace, while his successor in the interim administration prior to the election would initiate a counterassassination operation against some bunch of Palestinians who would be accused of being behind it.

Sure, there will be stories about how it was really a IDF or Shin Beth bullet, but honestly there would be the same stories if it really was Abu Nidal behind the shooting.

Carter would frankly bribe the living pants off Mubarak to (out of sorrow and respect for the fallen Sadat) carry on with the peace deal, and there would probably be a very similar thing at Camp David after Mubarak has ensured the loyalty of people with influence in Egypt, or at least ensured that the only people with influence are those who are also loyal.

An interesting question would be whether Mubarak would in turn be assassinated in 1981.

I'm sorry but the real world doesn't work like that, conspiracies like that rarely are even thought of in the moment (most people just don't think like that) and they NEVER work, there are no men on the grassy knoll ok?

[Minchandre]

Originally Posted by GarethC

Israeli security forces would have swiftly engaged and killed the assassin, revealed to be a "Palestinian terrorist". Really. It would be in all the papers. Very sad, how the Palestinians would stoop to anything to stop peace, you can't trust Arafat, Abu Nidal was probably behind it, yadda-yadda, America must stand`strong behind its ally, only democracy in Middle East, peace through strength and more F-15 sales, business as usual. You'd probably get everyone from the Real Black September to the Judaean People's Front claiming responsibility for it anyway.

Not a chance in hell. The Israeli government - and especially the Israeli army - would never do something like that. If the sniper in question could make a good case for himself that he thought Sadat was a terrorist (and that he hasn't just wanted to assassinate Sadat), he could probably even come out of the whole thing with a pretty small punishment. The Israelis, as always supremely confident in their own correctness, would apologize while explaining that sometimes things happen in war due to confusion and nervous soldiers. Egypt will probably not be happy, but the Israeli government's attitude will probably be something to the effect of "fuck 'em".

Begin would step down over the embarrassing failure of the IDF to safeguard this opportunity for peace, while his successor in the interim administration prior to the election would initiate a counterassassination operation against some bunch of Palestinians who would be accused of being behind it.

I'm not even sure that Begin would lose his job. The Ramatkal might, over the embarrassingly behavior of the soldier in question, and there'll almost certainly be a vote of confidence, but I don't think Begin would be stepping down. In fact, he might be able to successfully parlay the unreasonably Egyptian response to what was an honest accident to keep himself in office against the threat of renewed war with Egypt.

Carter's going to be supremely angry at the Israelis for blowing his big shot at making Peace in the Middle East, and is going to find the Israelis insufficiently apologetic. He'll likely try to cool or cut relations, but be stymied by Congress. Reagan might even be extra-special nice to Israel as a backlash.

[GarethC]

Originally Posted by Linsanity

Your faith in Israel is remarkable :P. That's something at actually seems quite possible. As for Mubarak, are you saying that he'd be assassinated by an Israeli sniper once more?

No, I meant that Mubarak might be the victim of the same kind of internal Egyptian plot as Sadat was OTL, if he took part in an analogue to the Camp David agreement.

Originally Posted by black angel

I'm sorry but the real world doesn't work like that, conspiracies like that rarely are even thought of in the moment (most people just don't think like that) and they NEVER work, there are no men on the grassy knoll ok?

TBH, there's not a huge conspiracy beyond "tell the sniper team in question to shut up and then produce press releases that say... well, they say what is best for everyone." Well, ok, maybe there is a little bit of one in that they need to find somebody to play the part of a dead assassin, but that can't be too hard.
Very few people will know what actually happened.
Lots of other people will deliberately lie about what happened, regardless of what actually happened, and what anybody else is saying about it.

Originally Posted by Minchandre

Not a chance in hell. The Israeli government - and especially the Israeli army - would never do something like that. If the sniper in question could make a good case for himself that he thought Sadat was a terrorist (and that he hasn't just wanted to assassinate Sadat), he could probably even come out of the whole thing with a pretty small punishment.

Sorry, I was unclear. I certainly don't mean that the Israeli army would shoot their own sniper! In the heat of the moment, though... Would Sadat have a bodyguard? Would they return fire? Would he be treated in Israel, or would the plane try to take off again immediately to return him to Egypt?
Certainly all the witnesses will be unsure of what happened, and Israeli security will immediately (as at the time they won't be sure what's happening either) try to move all the witnesses away from the plane and under cover. The majority of cameras will be watching Sadat, and hopefully none will be in position to see both shooter and victim.

It's in that atmosphere of immediate confusion followed by an initial press blackout (legitimately driven by the need to safeguard everybody present from further shootings) that the choice of what story to present faces Begin.

I think Israel would just keep everything secret enough, for long enough, to muddy the waters enough, to let other governments, which in all honesty would rather the whole thing just go away, have political cover to not get involved, particularly if groups on the Palestinian side begin to stick their own oars in.

Of course the truth will out sometime - but equally so will many many conflicting lies, and in all the confusion there might not be yet another Israeli-Egyptian War (which Israel would win, but really, is it worthwhile to fight one because some schmuck couldn't tell the difference between a deadly commando assassin and an old balding man in a suit)?

I really see any claim of "yeah, we shot the guy who launched that invasion across the Canal, but it was totally an accident!" as going over like the proverbial lead zeppelin - why would anyone believe it was anything other than a deliberate execution by a vengeful Begin, with a total non-apology which basically translates to "OUR WORDS ARE BACKED WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS," as they used to say in Civilization.

Instead, surely it's got to be Big Lie time, first because too many people will not believe the truth, and second because the consequences of that wrong belief are too difficult to predict and high-impact enough to risk a cover-up. There's too much danger that honesty snowballs into a second Zimmerman telegram and turns the Carter administration against at least the Begin administration.

On another note, even though we on AH start with the premise that the shooting is an accident, will the Israeli authorites believe that story? Did the shooter lose friends or family in '73? Somewhere in the chain between rifleman and Prime Minister, might not someone decide that it was an incident, not an accident? Would that affect the calculus of how to spin the story?

[Jason222]

If something like that happen their fire fight going good number people kill. Sadat body ground shot back fire fight between Israeli soldiers and Sadet body guard and IDF for short time before body ground drop weapons in practice terms hard tell who did the first shoot nor much investigation since war likely happen both side blame other for incent Israeli show some body guard had personal hate Israeli claim that one his body gourd did the first shoot and Egypt claim Israeli sniper. With fact Israel likely able keep truth topic secret. Carter not know truth one way or the other rid him be another major Middle East war. Be another major Middle East with all Middle East countries include Iran in it this time. Likely push Israel build Aria for it air force leading cute child allows. Israel might well take Palestinian Arab citizens by this point having fight in Israel army. Turn main war into a war of terrioiry no longer over Palestine and Israeli issues.

[Snake Featherston]

Israel is locked in a cycle of perpetual warfare and requiring the endless budgets to sustain an army suited to it, which produces an ever-increasing economic crisis that sees Israel start sliding down some very dark places to preserve its own existence.

[black angel]

Originally Posted by Snake Featherston

Israel is locked in a cycle of perpetual warfare and requiring the endless budgets to sustain an army suited to it, which produces an ever-increasing economic crisis that sees Israel start sliding down some very dark places to preserve its own existence.

a 1977 war (I view as a highly likely outcome) would be very awkward, to wit:



the darkest gray area had been de-militrized, and was spotted with UN, Israeli and Egyptian observation posts

[Snake Featherston]

Originally Posted by black angel

a 1977 war (I view as a highly likely outcome) would be very awkward, to wit:

I doubt that it would be, as Egypt would seek to replicate its successes in the 1973 war. That means this serves as *a* casus belli, but the war would come later due to need on the Egyptian military's part to both plan the offensive and seek to take the Israelis by surprise. However having no peace with any Arab states is going to be putting an ever-greater dent in Israel's budget......

[black angel]

Originally Posted by Snake Featherston

I doubt that it would be, as Egypt would seek to replicate its successes in the 1973 war. That means this serves as *a* casus belli, but the war would come later due to need on the Egyptian military's part to both plan the offensive and seek to take the Israelis by surprise. However having no peace with any Arab states is going to be putting an ever-greater dent in Israel's budget......

I see an emotional lashing out from Egypt, its a dictatorship that has been decapitated, meaning at lest for a time Cairo will be in chaos, now I wouldn't shocked of Sadat laid out action plans for the military/government if he was killed or captured, Egyptians were no more trustful than the Israelis

[Snake Featherston]

Originally Posted by black angel

I see an emotional lashing out from Egypt, its a dictatorship that has been decapitated, meaning at lest for a time Cairo will be in chaos, now I wouldn't shocked of Sadat laid out action plans for the military/government if he was killed or captured, Egyptians were no more trustful than the Israelis

Emotional lashing out in an economic, not military, sense. Even emotionally Egypt's not about to renew war with the IDF when it's not in the least prepared for this. It'll try to use the assassination to build up a moral case for war against Israel and make itself sympathetic, first. What it may in fact do is have those war scares on the pre-1973 model the better to lull Israel into quietude for a while before openly renewing the war. Or at least *intend* this, whether it actually *accomplishes* this is a different question.

[Jason222]

Originally Posted by Snake Featherston

Emotional lashing out in an economic, not military, sense. Even emotionally Egypt's not about to renew war with the IDF when it's not in the least prepared for this. It'll try to use the assassination to build up a moral case for war against Israel and make itself sympathetic, first. What it may in fact do is have those war scares on the pre-1973 model the better to lull Israel into quietude for a while before openly renewing the war. Or at least *intend* this, whether it actually *accomplishes* this is a different question.

Problem is that both side own thing claim happen neither side would per a say put up with the other.

[Snake Featherston]

Originally Posted by Jason222

Problem is that both side own thing claim happen neither side would per a say put up with the other.

Translate that sentence into something readable.

[Armored Diplomacy]

Originally Posted by Snake Featherston

Emotional lashing out in an economic, not military, sense. Even emotionally Egypt's not about to renew war with the IDF when it's not in the least prepared for this. It'll try to use the assassination to build up a moral case for war against Israel and make itself sympathetic, first. What it may in fact do is have those war scares on the pre-1973 model the better to lull Israel into quietude for a while before openly renewing the war. Or at least *intend* this, whether it actually *accomplishes* this is a different question.

But they won't succeed. Israel didn't respond to the growing signs of war in 1973 because it thought the Egyptians wouldn't dare, and they would be quickly crushed if they did.

Once Mossad begins picking up signs of an impending Egyptian attack, Israel either prepares for an attack or launches an all-out preemptive strike.

[Snake Featherston]

Originally Posted by Peter Parker

But they won't succeed. Israel didn't respond to the growing signs of war in 1973 because it thought the Egyptians wouldn't dare, and they would be quickly crushed if they did.

Once Mossad begins picking up signs of an impending Egyptian attack, Israel either prepares for an attack or launches an all-out preemptive strike.

And if Egypt has impending preparations for an attack and then doesn't attack, what do the Israelis do? Launch an attack and gain all the negatives of appearing trigger happy after bumping off the only leader who was trying to negotiate peace with them? And it might be worth reflecting here that Israel has no infinite supply of money nor will its economic situation with Egypt and Jordan permanently hostile to it be anything like the OTL one.