The promise of a socialist dawn in Britain

[pipisme]

Originally Posted by Alikchi

Truly excellent stuff. It's good to see the execrable part of the Democrats - the McAdoos and Garners - out of power, and a progressive force moving to replace them.

Baldwin's views on homosexuality are reassuring as well. Perhaps he would be willing to carry forward Masterman's suggestion.

Thank you very much for your praise for this TL.

The front page of the Daily Mail for Wednesday 5 August 1931 was dominated by a news story claiming that Oliver Baldwin, the Prime Minister's elder son, was living with a man named John Boyle. The story said:

We do not know if Mr. Oliver Baldwin and Mr. John Boyle are indulging in unnatural vice, but if they are committing criminal acts the police should be informed and a criminal prosecution brought. The fact that Mr. Baldwin is a son of the Prime Minister should not allow him to escape the law.

That afternoon a very angry Stanley Baldwin gave a press conference on the steps of 10 Downing Street. With him were Lucy, his wife, and Oliver. He said that Oliver had the love and support of himself and his wife. They knew that he and John Boyle were close friends and were living together. What they did in their personal lives was no one's business and certainly not a matter for the law. He said that Lord Rothermere had descended to the gutter in publishing that story. He would appoint a Royal Commission to investigate the laws relating to Sexual Offences.

[pipisme]

Originally Posted by Dathi THorfinnsson

Wouldnt secretary of the navy be more likely for fdr?

Hoover decided to appoint FDR secretary of war because he wanted to give him a more senior post than secretary of the navy. Also because I think it is more interesting.

[pipisme]

The composition and terms of reference of the Royal Commission on the Law Relating to Homosexual Offences were announced on Tuesday 1 September 1931. The Chairman was Alexander Lindsay, the Master of Baliol College, Oxford since 1924 and previously Professor of Moral Philosophy at the University of Glsagow from 1922-24. [1]

Besides the Chairman there were fourteen members, one of whom as a woman - Eleanor Rathbone, Independent MP for the Combined English Universities. [2] Among the other members were Cyril Garbett, the Anglican Bishop of Southwark; [3] Geoffrey Fisher, the headmaster of Repton School; [4] Arthur Waugh, writer and publisher; [5] and Percy Alden, the Chairman of the Christian Social Research Trust. [6] The other members included one MP from each of the three main parties, a judge, a senior police officer, a doctor, a psychologist, and two university professors.

The commission's terms of reference were as follows:

To inquire into the laws relating to homosexual offences and their effects on individuals and society, and if found necessary, to make recommendations for reforms in these laws.

The Lindsay Commission, as it is generally called, published its report in 1934. It proved to be controversial and is of historic importance.

[1] Here is his biography in the Oxford Dictionary of National Biography: http://www.oxforddnb.com/view/article/34537.

[2] Rathbone: http://www.oxforddnb.com/view/article/35678.

[3] Garbett: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyril_Garbett.

[4] Fisher: http://www.oxforddnb.com/view/article/31108.

[5] Waugh: http://www.oxforddnb.com/view/article/63092.

[6] Alden: http://www.oxforddnb.com/view/article/39606.

[pipisme]

Press reaction to the appointment of the Lindsay Commission was generally positive, even from loyal Conservative supporting newspapers such as the Daily Telegraph, which argued that it demonstrated Baldwin's liberal Conservative credentials, and would show the extent of a significant social problem.

The exception was the Daily Mail. A vehement editorial denounced it as a waste of money in a time of economic crisis. We don't need a royal commission to tell us that filth is filth, that unnatural behaviour is wrong and perverted. All decent people know that. It was a grubby attempt to get Liberal votes.

A by-election was held in the constituency of Guildford, in the county of Surrey, on 25 August 1931 caused by the death of Sir Henry Cecil Buckingham, the Conservative MP since 1922.

The result was as follows. First preference votes[1928 general election]:
The Honourable Charles Arthur Uryan Rhys (Conservative): 48.9% [57.1%]
John Freeman Dunn (Liberal): 31.5% [24.8%]
The Labour Party candidate: 19.6% [18.1%]
The turnout was 55.8% [72.7%].
After the second preferences of the Labour candidate had been allocated, the result was a victory for Dunn by 50.8% to 49.2% for Rhys.

In our TL Rhys was returned unopposed in the by-election on the same date. In this TL Dunn was Liberal MP for Hemel Hempstead from 1923-1928.

[pipisme]

The Japanese invasion of Manchuria on 19 September 1931 and subsequent conquest happened in this TL as in OTL. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanes...n_of_Manchuria.

In Britain the policy of the Conservative government in this TL was the same as in OTL, which was basically to do nothing effective.

However the Labour and Liberal parties pressed for action against Japan under articles 10 and 16 of the Covenant of the League of Nations. [1] Their demand for the early return of Parliament was resisted by the Prime Minister, Stanley Baldwin. Parliament returned from its summer recess at the end of October 1931, and the House of Commons debated foreign affairs in early November. In that debate Lord Robert Cecil and David Lloyd George, the Labour and Liberal foreign affairs spokesmen respectively, called for the imposition of sanctions by the League of Nations against Japan.

[1] See http://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/leagcov.asp.

[pipisme]

In the general election on 21 June 1928, Harry Midgley was elected as Northern Ireland Labour MP for Belfast. The Northern Ireland Party did not take a position on the border question and offered an alternative to unionism and nationalism. It was allied to the British Labour Party.

In the House of Commons Midgley repeatedly tried to raise issues relating to Northern Ireland, but was prevented by the Speaker's ruling that such matters could not be discussed at Westminster.

[pipisme]

In April 1931 Baldwin appointed Victor Alexander John Hope, Marquess of Linlithgow, as Viceroy of India. [1]

In the last week of September/first week of October 1931 Sir Oswald Mosley and his wife Lady Cynthia [Cimmie] went on a holiday/fact-finding tour in Palestine. They met leading members of the British administration, and of the Arab and Jewish communities.

On his return to London, Sir Oswald said that he fully supported the Zionist demand for a Jewish state in Palestine.

[1] Here is his biography in the Oxford Dictionary of National Biography: http://www.oxforddnb.com/view/article/33974.

[pipisme]

In its coverage of the Labour Party Conference, which was held in Scarborough from 5-9 October 1931, the Manchester Guardian had an article speculating about the next leader of the Labour Party after Arthur Henderson.

The old guard of the Party were now in their sixties: Henderson was 68; Clynes, the Deputy Leader, was 62; Ramsay MacDonald would be 65 on 12 October 1931. There was a younger generation of men in the Labour Shadow Cabinet, who were their forties, who would be contenders for the next leader.

William Graham, the spokesman on Treasury matters, was 44 years old and regarded as the favourite to be the next Labour leader. [1] The consensus among political commentators was that Graham was better qualified for the post of Chancellor of the Exchequer than Neville Chamberlain, the current occupant of that post.

Graham's main challenger would be James Maxton, who was 46, and the Health spokesman. He was the darling of the mainstream left-wing of the Party, though the far left denounced him as a sellout. He was a brilliant orator, who had also won the affection of MPs of all parties.

Hugh Dalton, the Trade spokesman, was four weeks younger than Graham. He was on the right-wing of the Labour Party.

It was considered likely that Sir Oswald Mosley, the Transport spokesman, would contest the leadership; not with any realistic hope of being elected but to put down a marker for the election after next. At 34 years old he could afford to wait.

The Manchester Guardian article picked Aneurin Bevan and John Strachey as possible leaders in twenty years time. Bevan was 33 years old and Strachey would be 30 years old on 21 October 1931. They were widely tipped to be appointed junior ministers in the next Labour government. A three-cornered contest for the Labour leadership in the late 1940s or early 1950s, featuring Bevan, Mosley and Strachey was a real possibility, and much to look forward to.

Another article in the Manchester Guardian tipped Clement Attlee, the backbench Labour MP, as a probable future Speaker, or deputy Speaker, of the House of Commons.

[1] Here is the entry for Graham in the Oxford Dictionary of National Biography: http://www.oxforddnb.com/view/article/33508. In OTL he died from pneumonia on 8 January 1932.

[pipisme]

The election for the twelve members of the Executive Committee of the Parliamentary Labour Party was held in early November 1931. The results were as follows, listed according to the order of successful candidates in the ballot [ranking in November 1930 elections]:

1. William Graham [1]
2. James Maxton [3]
3. Lord Robert Cecil [2]
4. Hugh Dalton [9]
5. Frederick Pethick-Lawrence [4]
6. Josiah Wedgwood [5]
7. Sir Oswald Mosley [12]
8. Albert Victor Alexander [11]
9. Frederick Jowett [6]
10. Ramsay MacDonald [7]
11. Charles Trevelyan [8]
12. David Grenfell [not elected].

George Lansbury, who was elected in 1930, did not stand for re-election because of his age. He was 72 years old.

Arthur Henderson and John Robert Clynes, the Leader and Deputy Leader, were ex officio members.

[pipisme]

In Germany the first round for the election for President took place on 13 March 1932, with the second round on 10 April.

The main candidates were Karl Jarres, who was seeking re-election; Adolf Hitler; Theodore Duesterberg [German National People's Party - DNVP], and Ernst Thalmann [Communist]. Jarres had the backing of all parties besides the Communists, Nazis and DNVP.

[pipisme]

In the campaign for the first round of the German presidential election, the National Socialist Party presented Hitler as the only candidate who would sweep away the corrupt Weimar system and make Germany great. Karl Jarres stood as the candidate of the Democratic Front, supported by parties ranging from the moderate left to the moderate right.

The result of the first round on 13 March 1932 was as follows:
Karl Jarres [Democratic Front]: 42.9%
Adolf Hitler [NSDAP]: 29.3%
Theodor Duesterberg [German National People's Party - DNVP]: 14.8%
Ernst Thalmann [Communist Party]: 12.6%
Other candidates: 0.4%.

In the first round an absolute majority of votes was required. In the second round a plurality was sufficient.

[pipisme]

On 16 March Alfred Hugenberg, the leader of the DNVP met Hitler. They agreed that Duesterberg would not contest the second round of the presidential election, and that the DNVP would back Hitler, who would stand as the candidate of the National Front comprising the DNVP and the NSDAP.

If all of Duesterberg's voters on the first round voted for Hitler in the second round, and if Thalmann stayed in the election and polled the same percentage vote, then Hitler would have a plurality of votes and be elected President.

The National Front campaign for the second round of the presidential election was masterminded by Josef Goebbels. He made Hitler appear respectable and presented him as the new Bismarck. As it was necessary for Thalmann to maintain his vote if Hitler was to be elected President, the NSDAP secretly chanelled funds to the Communist Party and the Thalmann campaign.

The result of the second round on 10 April 1932 was as follows:
Karl Jarres [Democratic Front]: 46.9%
Adolf Hitler [National Front]: 43.4%
Ernst Thalmann [Communist Party]: 9.7%.
So Jarres was re-elected as President of Germany. The turnout for the first round was 84.3% and for the second round was 81.7%. For comparison here is the wikipedia entry for the election in OTL when Hindenburg was re-elected President: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_...election,_1932.

[pipisme]

The presidential election of 1932 was the high water mark of votes for Hitler and the National Socialist Party. The coalition government of parties ranging from the moderate left to the moderate right, and headed by the Social Democrat Carl Severing [1] remained in power until Reichstag elections in 1934. It reaped the benefit of gradually improving economic conditions.

So in this TL Hitler and the Nazis do not come to power. I don't know yet what will happen to Hitler and other leading Nazis.

See this post: http://www.alternatehistory.com/disc...&postcount=181.

[Archangel]

Originally Posted by pipisme

The presidential election of 1932 was the high water mark of votes for Hitler and the National Socialist Party. The coalition government of parties ranging from the moderate left to the moderate right, and headed by the Social Democrat Carl Severing [1] remained in power until Reichstag elections in 1934. It reaped the benefit of gradually improving economic conditions.

So in this TL Hitler and the Nazis do not come to power. I don't know yet what will happen to Hitler and other leading Nazis.

See this post: http://www.alternatehistory.com/disc...&postcount=181.

The Nazis will likely attempt a coup, and the government will have to be very vigilant against it, with provisions to act against the Nazis in case of such an attempt.

[pipisme]

Originally Posted by Archangel

The Nazis will likely attempt a coup, and the government will have to be very vigilant against it, with provisions to act against the Nazis in case of such an attempt.

Following the failure of the Munich Putsch in 1923, the Nazis would be unlikely to attempt a coup.

Here are the number of seats obtained by each party in the election to the Landtag of the State of Prussia on 14 April 1932:
National Socialist German Workers Party: 114
Social Democratic Party: 98
Centre Party: 69
Communist Party: 56
German National People's Party: 41
German Democratic People's Party: 36
Conservative People's Party: 6
Christian Social People's Service Party: 2
German Hanoverian Party: 1
---------------
Total: 423
--------------

The Nazis increased their representation from 6 to 114 and became the largest single party. The Social Democrats fell from 137 to 98 and lost their position as the largest party.

The result of the same election in OTL can be found here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electio...ate_of_Prussia.

[pipisme]

Although the Nazis were the largest party in the Prussian Landtag, there was no feasible coalition of parties with them that would enable them to reach the 212 seats necessary to have an overall majority. Therefore the Social Democrat-Centre-German Democrat People's Party coalition continued in office, with Otto Braun [Social Democrat] as Prime Minister. The coalition had 203 seats in the Landtag which with the support of the Conservative People's Party, the Christian Social People's Service and the German Hanoverian Party gave it 212 seats.

Meanwhile in January 1932, Carl Severing, the Social Democrat Chancellor, had banned the National Socialist paramilitary organisations, the SA and SS. This made illegal their meetings and marches, and the wearing of their uniforms.

[pipisme]

In mid December 1931 William Graham, Labour MP for Edinburgh and Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer, was admitted to a London hospital suffering from pneumonia. After successful treatment he was discharged after 16 days. In mid January 1932 he returned to the House of Commons where he was given a warm welcome by MPs of all parties, as he took his seat on the opposition front bench. He was also a Director of the Abbey National Building Society. In OTL he died from pneumonia on 8 January 1932 at the age of 44. Here is the entry for him in the Oxford Dictionary of National Biography: http://www.oxforddnb.com/view/article/33508.

[pipisme]

Robert Henderson, the Conservative MP for Henley, died on 16 January 1932. The subsequent by-election was held on 25 February. The percentage of first preference votes obtained by each candidate was as follows [1928 general election]:
Sir Clifford Fox [Conservative]: 45.3 [54.9]
Robert Borlase Matthews [Liberal]: 32.1 [27.6]
Labour Party candidate: 22.6 [17.5].
After the Labour candidates second preferences were redistributed, Matthews was elected with 54.6% of the vote. The turnout was 58.2% [76.1%].

In OTL Fox was elected as Conservative MP for Henley in the by-election on 25 February.

[Julius Vogel]

The Conservatives lost Henley? That must be a rare occurrence

[pipisme]

Originally Posted by Julius Vogel

The Conservatives lost Henley? That must be a rare occurrence

The Liberals won Henley in the 1906 general election. Also in the 1923 general election in OTL and in this TL the Conservative majority over Liberal in a straight fight was only 826, or 3.6%.

In the Henley by-election in this TL, the first preference votes swing from Conservative to Liberal was 'only' 7.05 percent.

Sir Frederick Hall, Conservative MP for Dulwich from 1922-1928 and for Camberwell since 1928 died on 28 April 1932. Camberwell was a four member constituency which returned two Conservative and two Labour members in the general election on 21 June 1928. It was created from the former constituencies of Camberwell North, Camberwell North-West, Dulwich, and Peckham. In the December 1923 general election Camberwell North was safe Labour, Dulwich was safe Conservative, Camberwell North was a Labour/Conservative marginal, and Camberwell North-West was a Labour/Liberal marginal.

The by-election was held on 8 June 1932. The percentage of first preference votes for each candidate were as follows [1928 general election for their parties]:
Lewis Silkin [Labour]: 51.3 [39.0]
Arthur Leonard Bateman [Conservative]: 32.8 [39.3]
Dr. Charles Cooke-Taylor [Liberal]: 15.9 [21.7]
Labour gain from Conservative. The turnout was 68.2% [75.6%]

Silkin was a solicitor and a member of the London County Council.