Tunguska Event happens later

[VT45]

So, we know that Tunguska was a huge explosion in Siberia, probably from a meteorite or comet. It flattened everything within 25 km, and the glow from it was visible around the world during sunset. But what would have happened if the comet entered the atmosphere 7 or 8 hours later? If it had done so, the planet's rotation would have placed the comet over Western Europe. What would have happened if the comet had exploded over a large city such as London or Paris?

[Cook]

It’s pretty obvious what would have happened. But even if it did enter the atmosphere later over Europe, the odds of it hitting a major urban centre are still extremely slim.

[The Sandman]

IIRC, the burst was at the same latitude as St. Petersburg, so that seems the most likely victim.

[Ameise]

Granted that the Earth itself is not just rotating but revolving around the Sun, the Earth itself would be nowhere near there. However, assuming we are just implying that the Earth has rotated...

The event's epicenter was 60.886°N, 101.894°E. Ignoring axial tilt (as depending on the rotation of the Earth at that time would cause the impactor's new impact location to vary wildly), it would stay at 60.886°N, with only the longitude changing. This is near St. Petersburg, Vyborg, Stockhold, Oslo, and Anchorage.

Now, if we adjust it for axial tilt, centered on then, we need to imagine a new latitude line, that still crosses Tunguska, but rotated upon the Earth at ~12° both ways. Both ways because I do not know if Tunguska was on the "far side" or the "near side" of the Earth at that time, nor do I know how much the Earth has wobbled since then. Taking into account the possible locations of Tunguska vertically on the Solar Plane, it could have hit practically anywhere in the northern hemisphere, depending on time. For a a 0-8 hour discrepancy? If we take the northerly path, maybe Arkhangelsk or Murmansk? Southerly path, Astana, Ankara, Istanbul, Athens, Rome, Madrid, Tunis. I'd need some tools to let me draw tilt-less lines of latitude.

[VT45]

Well, if that's the case, let's say it explodes over central London, since that'd probably be the most devastating.

[Ameise]

I did some further mapping... it'd be roughly over London at this point, though again depending on a few other factors, also could have been over Paris. An hour two earlier and it could also possible hit Vienna, Prague, Berlin.

[Lord Grattan]

The search function is your friend VT:

WI: Tunguska Event called Moscow Event: http://www.alternatehistory.com/disc...d.php?t=200647

Tunguska Event Hits Paris?: http://www.alternatehistory.com/disc...d.php?t=210015

London Event 1908, meteor fall and burn capital of UK, instead of Tunguska (Russia): http://www.alternatehistory.com/disc...d.php?t=167865


What is at various points around the earth at the 61st parallel north?
Starting at the Prime Meridian and heading eastwards, the parallel 61° north passes through:
Co-ordinates Country, territory or sea Notes
61°0′N 0°0′E Atlantic Ocean Defines the border between North Sea and Norwegian Sea
61°0′N 4°40′E Norway Islands of Ytre Sula and Hiserøyna, and the mainland
61°0′N 12°14′E Sweden
61°0′N 17°13′E Baltic Sea Gulf of Bothnia
61°0′N 21°17′E Finland
61°0′N 28°41′E Russia Passing through Lake Ladoga, Lake Onega and by the approximate hypocentre of the 1908 Tunguska event
61°0′N 156°5′E Sea of Okhotsk Gizhigin Bay
61°0′N 159°53′E Russia
61°0′N 161°10′E Sea of Okhotsk Penzhin Bay
61°0′N 163°30′E Russia Kamchatka Peninsula
61°0′N 172°11′E Bering Sea
61°0′N 165°10′W United States Alaska
61°0′N 151°30′W Cook Inlet
61°0′N 150°31′W United States Alaska - Kenai Peninsula
61°0′N 150°19′W Cook Inlet Turnagain Arm
61°0′N 149°39′W United States Alaska
61°0′N 141°0′W Canada Yukon and Northwest Territories - passing through the Great Slave Lake Nunavut
61°0′N 94°10′W Hudson Bay
61°0′N 77°59′W Canada Quebec - Ungava Peninsula Nunavut - Diana Island
61°0′N 69°55′W Diana Bay
61°0′N 69°40′W Canada Quebec - Ungava Peninsula
61°0′N 69°28′W Hudson Strait
61°0′N 64°43′W Davis Strait
61°0′N 48°24′W Greenland
61°0′N 42°41′W Atlantic Ocean Passing just north of Out Stack, Muckle Flugga and Unst, Shetland Islands, Scotland, United Kingdom

From - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/61st_parallel_north

[Ameise]

Originally Posted by Lord Grattan

The search function is your friend VT:

WI: Tunguska Event called Moscow Event: http://www.alternatehistory.com/disc...d.php?t=200647

Tunguska Event Hits Paris?: http://www.alternatehistory.com/disc...d.php?t=210015

London Event 1908, meteor fall and burn capital of UK, instead of Tunguska (Russia): http://www.alternatehistory.com/disc...d.php?t=167865


What is at various points around the earth at the 61st parallel north?
Starting at the Prime Meridian and heading eastwards, the parallel 61° north passes through:
Co-ordinates Country, territory or sea Notes
61°0′N 0°0′E Atlantic Ocean Defines the border between North Sea and Norwegian Sea
61°0′N 4°40′E Norway Islands of Ytre Sula and Hiserøyna, and the mainland
61°0′N 12°14′E Sweden
61°0′N 17°13′E Baltic Sea Gulf of Bothnia
61°0′N 21°17′E Finland
61°0′N 28°41′E Russia Passing through Lake Ladoga, Lake Onega and by the approximate hypocentre of the 1908 Tunguska event
61°0′N 156°5′E Sea of Okhotsk Gizhigin Bay
61°0′N 159°53′E Russia
61°0′N 161°10′E Sea of Okhotsk Penzhin Bay
61°0′N 163°30′E Russia Kamchatka Peninsula
61°0′N 172°11′E Bering Sea
61°0′N 165°10′W United States Alaska
61°0′N 151°30′W Cook Inlet
61°0′N 150°31′W United States Alaska - Kenai Peninsula
61°0′N 150°19′W Cook Inlet Turnagain Arm
61°0′N 149°39′W United States Alaska
61°0′N 141°0′W Canada Yukon and Northwest Territories - passing through the Great Slave Lake Nunavut
61°0′N 94°10′W Hudson Bay
61°0′N 77°59′W Canada Quebec - Ungava Peninsula Nunavut - Diana Island
61°0′N 69°55′W Diana Bay
61°0′N 69°40′W Canada Quebec - Ungava Peninsula
61°0′N 69°28′W Hudson Strait
61°0′N 64°43′W Davis Strait
61°0′N 48°24′W Greenland
61°0′N 42°41′W Atlantic Ocean Passing just north of Out Stack, Muckle Flugga and Unst, Shetland Islands, Scotland, United Kingdom

From - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/61st_parallel_north

Those still ignore that the lines of latitude are adjusted for the Earth's axial tilt. Assuming that the impactor is arriving at the earth from roughly the same vertical coordinates relative to the Solar plane, you must adjust your latitude accordingly - a maximum of 12 degrees north or south of Tunguska's latitude on the opposite side of the planet. It can be anywhere within this range, depending on which 'side' of the planet Tunguska was at the time.

Several major cities, such as London, Paris, Berlin, lie within that range.

[RandomChance]

I've often wondered about the reaction of a similar (perhaps same event and location), but in different years.

Early 80's Soviet Union could have been a little tense, for example. While an explosion during the 1914-1918 period, given the war and the collapse of the Russian Empire might only be an interesting footnote in the period.

[docfl]

It it had hit in the 80's, would the Soviet leadership know its coming . Or would they think it was a first strike?
docfl

[wietze]

when i look at the list, a rather devastating impact would on greenland near the coast. no direct casualties, but indirect effects could be big.
increased melting of the ice sheet, if a large enough amount of fresh water from the melting would end up in the sea it could impact the oceanic conveyor for a while, causing a less strong (or temp shutdown) of the gulf stream (it is near greenland that chilled seawater sinks into the deepsea, travelling along the bottom as part of the global system of gulfstreams, too much fresh water on top makes it impossible to sink that deep).

result of this: cooling in europe, maybe famine