Largest Russian Empire possible

[warsfan]

Originally Posted by Elfwine

And speaking for myself as a Californian, a Russian "California" would be cool. California offers enough, gold ignored even, to be worth some trouble.

Not sure if Russia could expand that far south without triggering some kind of reaction from the Spanish, considering that the Spanish almost started a war with Britain in 1789 over British Columbia. Spain, even in its weakened 18th C. state, could probably kick Russia back accross the Bearing Strait if it really wanted to-I doubt they'd go through all the trouble just for some useless land in the frozen north, but they probably wouldn't want Russia getting too close to Mexico either.

That said, I think a Russian "Cascadia" (BC+Washington+Oregon, with maybe even a little bit of northern California) is certainly plausible, and would make for a very interesting AH.

[General_Finley]

I believe that the size of the Russian Empire featured in Decades of Darkness is probably the largest Russia could plausibly get, though it could possibly get larger if it is able to hold the congress of Poland.

[MarshalBraginsky]

Originally Posted by Iori

Excluding Colonial ventures (Alaska not included); Manchuria, Mongolia. Xinjiang, Moldovia, Hokkaido, Jammu and Kashmir (dependent on Russian Xinjiang existing), North Afghanistan, Iranian Azerbaijan & Northern Iran, North East Norway, Svalbard, part of Anatolia, Frontier areas of Korea and possibly some Central and South Pacific Islands.

Would that realistically include the Philippines?

[Elfwine]

Originally Posted by warsfan

Not sure if Russia could expand that far south without triggering some kind of reaction from the Spanish, considering that the Spanish almost started a war with Britain in 1789 over British Columbia. Spain, even in its weakened 18th C. state, could probably kick Russia back accross the Bearing Strait if it really wanted to-I doubt they'd go through all the trouble just for some useless land in the frozen north, but they probably wouldn't want Russia getting too close to Mexico either.

That said, I think a Russian "Cascadia" (BC+Washington+Oregon, with maybe even a little bit of northern California) is certainly plausible, and would make for a very interesting AH.

Fort Ross.

Russia did have some presence in California - very late, but still.

And what is Spain kicking Russia anywhere with?

[yourworstnightmare]

Originally Posted by Berus

With any POD, what would be the largest russian empire possible, how large could it be ?

With Russia not collapsing in WW1, they would probably get Galizia- Bukovina, and maybe Constantinople. That would pretty much be maximum Russia. But Russia would not be able to hold it together, a lot of countries would secede when the Czarist tyranny eventually collapses.

[MarshalBraginsky]

Spain was already collapsing by the time the Russians increased their presence in Alaska. On the other hand, if the Russians are being beaten by Spain in North America, they could also have helped with the Dagohoy Rebellion in the Philippines.

[warsfan]

Originally Posted by Elfwine

Fort Ross.

Russia did have some presence in California - very late, but still.

And what is Spain kicking Russia anywhere with?

Fort Ross was after the Spanish New World had begun to break up.

In the 18th century, Spain still has a navy it can concentrate in the Pacific...granted, its not a top tier naval power...but then again, Russia won't be, either. Even speeding up the development of the Russian Far East a century or so, which seems to be the POD here, I can't see Russia putting a whole fleet of ships of the line in the Pacific, which Spain will be able to do from its bases in South America and the Phillipines.

Now, granted, I'm not saying it wouldn't take a ton of effort on Spain's part, and probably use up lots of money and resources that Spain would prefer to spend elsewhere, which is why I don't see them doing it. I think the most likely Spanish response to Russian settlement down the Pacific Coast is to found *San Francisco 50 years early, and to tell the Russians in no uncertain terms that everything south of there is Spanish territory the Russians are not to mess with...followed by a bunch of diplomatic negotiations that culminate in a treaty fixing a Spanish/Russian boundery somewhere to the north of SanFran-which still gives the Russians plenty of room in North America, and probably results in Spain settling (southern) California earlier and more thoroughly, which could have all sorts of effects in itself.

[MarshalBraginsky]

Couldn't Russia have an early maritime start in order to become used to the idea of a seafaring nation?

[Tongera]

Originally Posted by MarshalBraginsky

Couldn't Russia have an early maritime start in order to become used to the idea of a seafaring nation?

It could have placed a bigger emphasis on seafaring and its navy, but its focus would have mainly stayed on land and its land army.

[Elfwine]

Originally Posted by warsfan

Fort Ross was after the Spanish New World had begun to break up.

Only just, at best.

In the 18th century, Spain still has a navy it can concentrate in the Pacific...granted, its not a top tier naval power...but then again, Russia won't be, either. Even speeding up the development of the Russian Far East a century or so, which seems to be the POD here, I can't see Russia putting a whole fleet of ships of the line in the Pacific, which Spain will be able to do from its bases in South America and the Phillipines.

Spain in 1739 (Kennedy does not have figures for earlier in the 18th century, the next is for 1779) only has 34 ships of the line all totalled - Russia has 30.

Spain may have a better position in terms of bases, yes, but fleet-wise we're not looking at Spain having the navy to put "a whole fleet of ships of the line" in the Pacific without concentrating everything there.

Don't have figures for smaller ships, but you mentioned ships of the line, so I'm going with the figure for those given in The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers.

Now, granted, I'm not saying it wouldn't take a ton of effort on Spain's part, and probably use up lots of money and resources that Spain would prefer to spend elsewhere, which is why I don't see them doing it. I think the most likely Spanish response to Russian settlement down the Pacific Coast is to found *San Francisco 50 years early, and to tell the Russians in no uncertain terms that everything south of there is Spanish territory the Russians are not to mess with...followed by a bunch of diplomatic negotiations that culminate in a treaty fixing a Spanish/Russian boundery somewhere to the north of SanFran-which still gives the Russians plenty of room in North America, and probably results in Spain settling (southern) California earlier and more thoroughly, which could have all sorts of effects in itself.

Settling with who? Offering land grants may attract settlers, or it may meet an apathetic response.

[Arcvalons]

Persia? Afghanistan? Anatolia?

[warsfan]

Originally Posted by Elfwine

Only just, at best.



Spain in 1739 (Kennedy does not have figures for earlier in the 18th century, the next is for 1779) only has 34 ships of the line all totalled - Russia has 30.

Spain may have a better position in terms of bases, yes, but fleet-wise we're not looking at Spain having the navy to put "a whole fleet of ships of the line" in the Pacific without concentrating everything there.

Don't have figures for smaller ships, but you mentioned ships of the line, so I'm going with the figure for those given in The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers.

Point-didn't realize Spain's navy was that small.

Still, the Russians have the same problem, and Spain controls the entire west coast of South America and Mexico-they can send ships around Cape Horn and then north, stopping in Buenos Aires, Valprisario, Lima etc. for resupply. Russia, by contrast, would probably have to stay away from Spanish holdings as much as possible, with means going around Africa, through the Indian ocean, and up the Chinese coast-with no resupply for this entire distance unless Britain or the Netherlands decide to be friendly.

So again, considering that the Nootka Crisis could happen in 1789, I think Spain would make a big stink about Russia trying to settle California-but for the reasons above, I think an actual war would be a difficult, resource-intensive thing both countries would want to avoid, and thus you'd get some kind of compromise-probably giving the Russians some of northern California, and the rest to the Spanish.

Settling with who? Offering land grants may attract settlers, or it may meet an apathetic response.

Well, consider that, IOTL, Spain didn't seriously start trying to populate California till around the American Revolution. Here-seen as how the Russians might conceivably move into California if it stays empty-they're probably going to start 30-50 years before then-founding a network of forts and missions along the coast, and offering land grants and other encouragement to anyone willing to come to them (not only from South America, but Spain itself, the rest of Europe and the Phillipenes as well-I expect the new colony might have a large Asian population, at least at first). It probably won't get hugely populated at first-but then again, neither will Russian America.

And with all this activity in California, the likelyhood of someone finding the gold increases-and if we go with "north of San Francisco Bay" as the border, that would, IIRC, put it right on top of the goldfields, which could get very interesting...

[MarshalBraginsky]

Or why not have a Russo-Spanish "Torsedillas" treaty, marking which territories north of what line they should take. Say, the Russians could have the territories north of the 44th parallel and the Spanish could have the territories south of the 44th parallel.

[warsfan]

Originally Posted by Arcvalons

Persia? Afghanistan? Anatolia?

Persia's definately possible with the right POD-the northern half became a Russian sphere of influence IOTL.

Afghanistan might prove to be a lot of trouble with them-look at what it did to the British when they tried to satellitize it.

Anatolia definately-they actually took large parts of eastern Anatolia (all the way to Trebizond at least) IOTL, before the 1917 Revolution and subsequent military collapse allowed the Ottoman empire and Ataturk to retake it. You just need the war to go a little better for them, such that the Revolution is delayed.

[Iori]

Originally Posted by MarshalBraginsky

Would that realistically include the Philippines?

No.

The Philippines were in some ways to Spain what India was to Britain after they lost the America's, and even before then were pretty important for them.

In terms of a Russian Pacific I'm thinking more like Marcus Island, Hawai'i, Johnston Atoll and maybe what's now F.S. Micronesia, Marshall Islands and the Mariana Islands.

[BlondieBC]

Originally Posted by Elfwine

Settling with who? Offering land grants may attract settlers, or it may meet an apathetic response.

Involuntary Jewish movement. It becomes the new Pale of Settlement. Russia changed the area/restriction on Jews several times, so make this just one more movement.

[MarshalBraginsky]

Originally Posted by Iori

No.

The Philippines were in some ways to Spain what India was to Britain after they lost the America's, and even before then were pretty important for them.

In terms of a Russian Pacific I'm thinking more like Marcus Island, Hawai'i, Johnston Atoll and maybe what's now F.S. Micronesia, Marshall Islands and the Mariana Islands.

The Marianas were a part of the Spanish East Indies though, so it would also screw up the administration if Russia took those islands.

[Iori]

Originally Posted by MarshalBraginsky

The Marianas were a part of the Spanish East Indies though, so it would also screw up the administration if Russia took those islands.

They were part of the SEI, yes, however until the 19th century this was more theoretical and they more just claimed them rather than controlling them with no one else claiming them, much the same way F.S. Micronesia was.

[Velasco]

Is a Russian Balkans not possible at all?

[Iori]

Originally Posted by Velasco

Is a Russian Balkans not possible at all?

Russia did control a part of the Balkans IOTL, though if you mean the entirety, then no, it's not, especially not former-Yugoslavia.