The Whale has Wings

[Astrodragon]

Originally Posted by usertron2020

What oil wells do they have?

Actually I don't think they have any so far...
They didn't get the ones in NW Borneo (they were destroyed), and they dont have control of the area to allow them to be fixed. Burma is well out of range now.
Are there any oil fields in the PI or the Celebes?

[iainbhx]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

Actually I don't think they have any so far...
They didn't get the ones in NW Borneo (they were destroyed), and they dont have control of the area to allow them to be fixed. Burma is well out of range now.
Are there any oil fields in the PI or the Celebes?

There is oil in Celebes off-shore and on-shore. Not sure if it was widely exploited at that time, but it was known about.

[MattII]

If we're being generous she could probably operate a CVL and a few escort destroyers without compromising her merchant shipping, if we're being stingy then even keeping her merchant shipping going is biting into her reserves.

[usertron2020]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

Actually I don't think they have any so far...
They didn't get the ones in NW Borneo (they were destroyed), and they dont have control of the area to allow them to be fixed. Burma is well out of range now.
Are there any oil fields in the PI or the Celebes?

Pretty sure the answer about oil fields in the PI is no, considering the poverty in the islands. The destruction of the oil fields in question happened both IOTL and ITTL. What is the real killer for the Japanese was the refusal of the powerful zaibatsu (1) to allow the construction of oil refineries in the DEI and Malaya.

This meant that freshly drilled crude oil had to be shipped to Japan before it could be properly refined for exploitation as petroleum and gasoline. And when the US sub force finally got its torpedoes fixed...

It was also why OTL that the Japanese had to base their fleet in Singapore prior to Leyte Gulf, and burn pure crude at that. Because they did, the smoke coming out of those warships burning crude oil was so black it could be seen for many miles. Maybe this explains why the postwar Allied occupation didn't go after breaking them up quite as enthusiastically as they did the powerful farm-landlords. Payment for services rendered.

1) Think Mafia-type Industry Magnates

[Paulo the Limey]

Originally Posted by usertron2020

. And sadly, their submarine force is still firing spitballs, and will be for a long time to come.

I'm not so certain. The comparison between USN and Allied sub performance will be in much sharper contrast than in OTL, possibly getting searching questions asked earlier.
With fewer escorts available, US Subs might get an earlier opportunity to do what one sub captain did- do some live-fire testing on a convenient Japanese target.

[Astrodragon]

Originally Posted by Paulo the Limey

I'm not so certain. The comparison between USN and Allied sub performance will be in much sharper contrast than in OTL, possibly getting searching questions asked earlier.
With fewer escorts available, US Subs might get an earlier opportunity to do what one sub captain did- do some live-fire testing on a convenient Japanese target.

It may well be exposed sooner. The issue wont be so much the comparison with the RN - the quality of the RN commanders is known, and they have been in action for 3 years, and would be expected to do well - its verses the Dutch boats.

Of course, exposing the problem and getting anything done about it is two different issues...

[The Oncoming Storm]

Originally Posted by usertron2020

Pretty sure the answer about oil fields in the PI is no, considering the poverty in the islands. The destruction of the oil fields in question happened both IOTL and ITTL. WHat is the real killer for the Japanese was the refusal of the powerful zaibatsu(1) to allow the construction of oil refineries in the DEI and Malaya.

1) Think Mafia-type Industry Magnates

Just when I thought Japanese strategy and logistics couldn't have been anymore fucked up!

What were they thinking???

[Obfuscated]

Originally Posted by The Oncoming Storm

Just when I thought Japanese strategy and logistics couldn't have been anymore fucked up!

What were they thinking???

We have enough* capacity here** in the home islands***.

*If the airforce would stop these Americans bombing them flat every other day

**And if the navy would do its job the oil would actually reach them to be processed here.

***And if you think we're going to move our workers...

[Roisterer]

Originally Posted by The Oncoming Storm

Just when I thought Japanese strategy and logistics couldn't have been anymore fucked up!

What were they thinking???

It's the same sort of result with little empire-builders (in the business sense) everywhere. We've had a few examples with the British and Americans on this thread, and we know how crazy some of the Nazi planning was.

I sometimes wonder if victory in war goes to the side that screws up slightly less than the others....

Regards

R

[Faralis]

Thanks for the update, Astro. TTL "Coral Sea" is going to be a less important battle than OTL, but more important in the destruction of the IJN ...

I also think that the "liability" of US torpedoes would be discovered sooner than OTL, but that does not mean it would produce better torpedoes sooner too, politics are a bitch ...

EDIT: The zaibatsu were the top winners in japan in WWII, they were reduced by the US after the war, but no near the destruction level the Germans had ( both physically and economically ) and they started to receive a massive man pool of former IJN and IJA young officers and also people who would have join the army or the navy if they had´nt loose the war ... without them ( and OTL´s Korean "conflict" ) the Japanese recovery would have been much harder and slower.

[El Pip]

Originally Posted by The Oncoming Storm

Just when I thought Japanese strategy and logistics couldn't have been anymore fucked up!

What were they thinking???

I imagine the reasoning was "Well the war will be over in a few months, so why waste effort on a refinery we wont need post war."

By the time it became apparent to the Japanese that the war in fact wouldn't be over quickly it was too late to start building one, if it was even possible at all.

A modern refinery takes somewhere around 4 years to build and a bit longer to work up to full production. Even assuming corners are cut and the target is only for a small plant I'm far from convinced Japan has the time to build a refinery in say the DEI and then get any fuel out of it before the end of the war.

This is not like a railroad or bridge, the work is complex chemical engineering and requires all sorts of expertise and specialist materials, all of which has to be shipped in from Japan on increasingly rare shipping.

I'll not defend Japanese logistics on much, but attempting a war time build of a refinery in the DEI would only have made things worse for them.

[sloreck]

While the flame breather is right that the USN is still playing catch up tactically with the RN, and the building program of ground units and naval units has not hit stride yet, ITTL the Japanese still have to look east to the USN as well as west to the RN. The war was all about resources especially oil, so they have to concentrate on seizing the DEI, Borneo, Malaya and they have to finish off the PI..or at least marginalize any remaining US forces, to make sure the sea lanes to Japan are "open" - if they don't do this everything else is useless.

With the IJN markedly reduced in numbers across the board in ships and key personnel, and the USA with 4-6 carriers in the Pacific (even if a bit green and pilots flying some less than great machines) if they face the RN in SEA the US can kick them in the butt almost at will. Raids on their defensive chain of islands will rapidly reduce them to uselessness because every ounce of fuel used defending against a raid, every airplane shot down, every bullet used etc has to be replaced and the Japanese simply can't do that even with US subs still firing pretty worthless torps (although they do work occasionally). The US (hopefully) will start doing Marine raider attacks (like Makin OTL) very soon using some big subs and/or destroyers converted to fast transports....good politics, good training for the US Marines, and a real pain for the Japanese.

Basically the Japanese are now trying to play whack-a-mole with lots of moles coming from all direction, and a hammer that is getting smaller & smaller.

[Hyperion]

Originally Posted by Geordie

Agreed. The wheels have already come off, but the Japanese are yet to realise it. After all, they're still moving downhill. It'll be when the descent becomes a free-fall that they will start worrying.

Then again, it might be that losing a Fleet Carrier, after these minor losses and setbacks in a sea of glorious victories (as they are probably interpreted) may wake the Japanese up to their predicament rather earlier.

They've already lost one fleet carrier, the Hiryu, during the Second battle of Wake Island. To date they've lost five CVL/CVE type ships though.

Just in the recent operation near Java, they lost at least six cruisers. That's more cruisers lost in one battle than they lost OTL up through to September 1942.

[usertron2020]

Originally Posted by The Oncoming Storm

Just when I thought Japanese strategy and logistics couldn't have been anymore fucked up!

What were they thinking???

They were thinking "*money-money-money, must be honey*". They as the zaibatsu could charge and make more $$$ if they kept refineries running in Japan as busily as possible. Having the refineries in Japan while new refineries were built in the DEI and Malaya would cost boku bucks, and the zaibatsu didn't want to talk about that.

The amount of influence they enjoyed over the Japanese government was second only to the Imperial Japanese Army itself. In some ways, even more. After all, if you are a Japanese Army officer, and your career is NOT headed for the top, early (or even not so early) retirement to positions in (or working for) the zaibatsu was a nice cushy alternative. A Japanese Military-Industrial Complex.

[usertron2020]

Originally Posted by El Pip

I'll not defend Japanese logistics on much, but attempting a war time build of a refinery in the DEI would only have made things worse for them.

Your logic is unassailable, but what about the practicality of building a refinery using what is left of the Dutch refineries? Or can those be considered 100% nixed?

Ninja'd by Faralis

[Gannt the chartist]

Roisterer oh thankyou.

some points for people in Alt history to remember.

1. Victory in war always goes to the side that screws up the least.

2. The level of screw up is a function of the creativity of the dumbest asshole involved.

3. Automatic weapons and artillery will kill your soldiers dead no matter how cool the general is or what badge you are wearing.

4. You, the poster, are not as smart or experienced as the guy you are criticising, his staff, his principle subordinates, their staffs, Army, Army Group, Theatre command and their staffs, the War Ministry etc. You just know the result. (exception you are smarter for the entire middle ages, just not as psychotic)

5. You possess less information than the guy in the spot making the decision.


Apart from that - Beach Volleyball is nearly over so hopefully astro will be back soon

[sharlin]

Read the book Shattered Sword about the attack on Midway to get a wonderful insight into the absolute fail that was the planning for that from the Japanese point of view.

[Tyg]

We've seen that Ceylon has been developed a bit with additional docks and ship repair capacity, and Malaya has quite a bit more military infrastructure than OTL. India is also secure, without disruption to its food supplies.

Once the Japanese are defeated in Malaya and in their attempts to invade Java, might we see London try to arrange the war in Asia as something regionally-supported? The Indian army is presumably going to be more heavily involved in Asia than in the European theaters of war, and Malaya's valuable exports (along with DEI oil) continue to support the Allied war effort.

So why wouldn't Britain seek to fight Japan on the cheap, and invest in improvement to Indian and Malayan capacities to support and supply their army and air forces in the theater? Granted, overall industrial capacity can't be dramatically improved within the Empire's resource constraints, but with the Lend-Lease spigot open, India and Malaya could surely provide increasing supplements to war industry needs.

That way, the UK and Dominions can focus more of their industrial and military capacities on the "real war" in Europe. It might simplify demands on shipping a bit as well if less material needs to be brought all the way from Great Britain to Singapore.

[Gannt the chartist]

Tyg,

Undoubtedly the UK would be developing a larger resource base in India (and Aus to some extent) and Astro has hinted at such. Overall I think the UK is around a year ahead in production terms and that should carry over into India so you can expect (apart from clothing and and rations per OTL) kit form assembly of light vehicles, Jeeps and small naval craft for example some repair facilities, coming online late 42 in tiny numbers, something significant in 43/44 not much else unless significant machine tools and facilities are provided, again with a lead time. Maybe some chemical works - antimalarials and similar.

ammunition production and light weapons are already there and could be expanded more easily, probably but I thinl this was done OTL anyway.

Its probably not - apart from the food, textiles and repair facilities going to be a major influence on the war as a whole. Post war is another matter.

Big caveat on the troops is the eastern front - there are a couple of corps in Iraq/Iran OTL which stayed becuase of possible soviet collapse and interestingly a full armoured division not equipped die to lack of tanks - that could go to Europe.

The interesting thing to me is the size of the UK/Commonwealth forces already in the line. 14th army is big by any standard and likely to both better equipped and in locations from which it can be deployed easily unlike OTL. Big in this instance is ~1million men.

[Tyg]

Originally Posted by Gannt the chartist

Its probably not - apart from the food, textiles and repair facilities going to be a major influence on the war as a whole. Post war is another matter.

I was thinking mostly about the long-term impact, yes. The British Empire as a whole could be potentially much richer after the war ITTL, and tightly linked by trade. If Indian economic growth manages to take off thanks to the boost of war industries, you significantly alter the political landscape there as well. If Indian owned businesses and industries have more influence, that suggests a very different set of policy compromises in an independent India.

Originally Posted by Gannt the chartist

The interesting thing to me is the size of the UK/Commonwealth forces already in the line. 14th army is big by any standard and likely to both better equipped and in locations from which it can be deployed easily unlike OTL. Big in this instance is ~1million men.

I wonder if the UK/Commonwealth forces will have much of a manpower issue at all in the later phases of the war.