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#81
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On the subject of the Kerry McCain ticket, John McCain has had a pretty conservative record. Particularly his views on abortion would alienate much of the Democratic base. I doubt you Coukd get a majority of the delegates of a Democratic convention to vote for him.
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#82
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#83
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To take a break from Bush Gore, and the other tickets that keep popping up here, I would throw out a few other suggestions.
1912 Democratic: Wilson picked Thomas R Marshall (A rather decent VP all things considered, though he never did much) to appease the Populist-Dry Wing of the Party, but he wasn't the only chose to be considered. William Jennings Bryan was of course the kingmaker at the convention so its difficult to really see how, but if any "Wet" was put on the Ticket with Wilson, the Democratic solidarity might crack, and while the GOP division makes it still rather hard to imagine a Democratic defeat that year, Taft and TR could both gain ground in such a situation. 1912 Republican: Considering the fact that the two men had previously had good relations and would develop them again later, its not impossible to see TR and Taft being able to reconcile. Taft remaining on the ticket with a Roosevelt Selected VP pick (Knox, Borah, Root) and a promise that TR would get the Secretary of State job would allow the Party to go into 1912 Competitively. With a strong Republican ticket on one side and Debs gaining more votes on the other, Wilson could go down in a defeat easily. 1896 Democratic: William Jennings Bryan, then a young semi-insurgent candidate made a very half-hearted attempt to appease the Gold Democrats (Who were already walking out) of the Party with the nomination of Arthur Sewall as VP. The Swedeborgian Shipbuilder brought in the specter of odd religion, and further weakened the 2 term congressmen's experience problem, while upsetting Liberal Democrats and failing to woo Conservative ones. A stronger Gold candidate (Vilas, Hill, Bragg) or a sterner moderate (Blackburn, Hogg, Palmer) gives Bryan the experience he lacks, and can help woo Gold Democrats back to the party banner. Of course the Populist fusion nomination was a close run thing and a Strait-Out Populist ticket almost happened IOTL with Sewall pick, so any of them could provoke another third party run. If Bryan nominates a sterner Silverite as his nominee (Bland, Boies or Weaver) the Gold Democrats might be able to win their own state. As a side note, had John Palmer picked a slightly younger VP pick then the also 80+ aged Simon B Buckner the National Democrats could probably have done much better. Blackburn is also from Kentucky, is also an Ex-Confederate, and like Buckner can appeal to moderates better. So you can take a 1% result to 2-5%. Liberal Republicans 1872: There's not really such a thing as a Good Liberal Republican, but Greeley (A Terrible Candidate) selected his own terrible VP pick (Benjamin G Brown). He brought nothing to the campaign, except alcoholism and drunken commentary on Reconstruction that along with Greeley's stance completely gutted the party. Many Liberal Republicans simply opposed Grant's use of the Spoils system but sought a continuation of Reconstruction, and the fight for Civil Rights. Greeley and Brown both were from the faction that had only wanted Slavery to end, and turned against Reconstruction when it included blacks voting and owning property. Other options arn't much better (Trumbull is the best of a rotten bunch in regards to that Civil Rights fight) but could have kept the party from collapsing up North. Or David Davis could have been nominated bringing in Proto-Labor support while agreeing with the Anti-Freedmen message. Or to appeal to the Democrats that they would fuse with they could have picked Winfield Scott Hancock, Baynard, Jeremiah S Black or Charles OConner as VP who would agree with the End of Reconstruction message. Or they could have balanced both parties factions by nominating a New Departure Democrat, Tilden, Sickles, or Palmer and balanced the Anti- and Pro- Civil Rights wings of the Democrats and Liberal Republicans. There's still alot standing against the Liberal Democrats, but the election could have been closer, with a different VP. (With a sane Presidential Nominee they might even have won) 1856 Know-Nothing: In this election the American Party made the two classic third party mistake of the 19th Century, they nominated an Ex-President, and they nominated a VP from the other party. Now Fillmore is a shoddy choice already and they could have done better, but he did help them secure the official Whig nomination in the process so one can argue he evens out. But here's the thing. In the North the Know-Nothings support base are nativists and oppositionists who will vote no matter what. Wins there will only come by getting a plurality of votes with the rest split between the Democrats and Republicans. In the South though the party is really just THE opposition, the Republicans can't possibly win votes in slave states, so the Know-Nothings are just the banner by which the Whigs continue on in Dixie. And with this, the path to success opened based on appeasing Ex-Whigs in the North to not vote Republican and by maintaining Whig morale down in Dixie, what do they do? They nominate Andrew Jackson Donaldson, the nephew and political heir of his namesake father of the Democratic Party. While appeals to bipartisanship work for Free-Soilers, Libertites, Populists and Greenbacks, it doesn't make any sense when your party is a re-branded continuation of a previous party entirely. George Law, Henry Gardner, Anyone who ran as a Constitutional Unionist in 1860, Nathaniel P Banks... All of them open up the option for the American Party, for all of its nativist idiocy, to be more then just a flash in the Political pan, with wins far beyond just Maryland.
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#84
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Also, can you link to this post where you linked to the polls showing Clinton's approval in the mid-60s during the 2000 election, I'm having trouble finding it. Quote:
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Cited in the Perfect Tie by Busch and Caesar, page 28 of the 2001 edition. Quote:
On the hardening of public opinion towards Clinton after impeachment, you should look at a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll of December 1999 which showed a bare majority in favour of the House decision to impeach Clinton, 50-49, and a 50-46 disaproval of Clinton as a person. (Cited in The Perfect Tie) A CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll of March registered a 58-42 disaproval rating of Clinton as a person. For the impact of Clinton Fatigue on the election, you should read pages 111 to 118 of The 2000 Presidential Election and the Foundations of Party Politics by Johnston, Hagen and Jamieson, paying particular attention to their counterfactual analysis of pages 112 and 113, showing that had Clinton being regarded as positively personally as Gore, this could have resulted in an up to 6% shift in Gore voting intention, and even an indifferent attitude to Clinton would have resulted in a 1% shift to Gore. This article also nicely goes over, with polling, the terrible hollowing-out of Clinton's personal approval ratings in combination with the sustaining of his job performance ratings at the time of impeachment. This study from POQ also nicely summarises the issues surrounding the 'moral' aspect of the election and the negative perception of Clinton, and the impact this had on voting behaviour, though you need to be signed-in to view it. To conclude, your assertion both that there was no such thing as Clinton fatigue, and that it had no impact on the result of the election is demonstrably, verifiably, false. Quote:
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I assume btw you're using 'cherry-picked' here to mean 'does not support my own assertions, ergo invalid'. Quote:
I'm not entirely sure why it shouldn't be a point in Gore's favour that he picked one of the more centrist members of the Senate as his running mate. It certainly didn't hurt Gore's standing with the left of his base, as he polled strongly with them. Quote:
In any case, to go to the heart of the matter, the idea that the election could have been changed by a different VP candidate is, as others have stated, questionable. Particularly so if you're relying on John Kerry to swing New Hampshire, as you are. In 2004, when he was the nominee, the Democratic ticket only improved on the 2000 result in New Hampshire by 3.4%, and that was when the Nader vote, which had exceeded this in 2000, had been neutralised as a factor. Most of this increase came in counties on the Vermont side of the state from Massachussets, incidentally, suggesting Kerry's next-door status had almost no effect on the result. And this was when he was on the top of the ticket. Quote:
You seem to be confusing inflammatory language with language questioning your argument. If you're becoming inflamed by me questioning your argument to the point where you're likely to "further offend" me then I suggest we mutually agree to stop this before you're kicked or banned.
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A thing of beauty is a treasure forever
Last edited by V-J; July 31st, 2012 at 07:09 PM.. |
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#85
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One last go at Bush v. Gore. For others reading, keep in mind that I've demonstrated that:
a) A key aspect of reversing the outcome in 2000 is diverting a fraction of the tens of millions of dollars spent in Florida to shore up narrow OTL losses by Gore in NH and TN and possibly hold WV. Any one of those states is enough to flip the 2000 election (without Florida), which is, of course, the point of this thread. b) A second aspect of reversing the outcome in 2000 is shoring up the Nader vote among disaffected liberals. Again, give Gore a third of Nader's vote in NH (and have the other two-thirds stay home), and Gore wins the election regardless of what happens in Florida. To this end, I've linked to the National Journal showing that Lieberman was one of the most conservative Democrats in the Senate at the time he was nominated, and claimed that fed into disaffected liberals' view that Gore was too conservative. V-J's response to this has been contradictory: first, he cited a paper-thin ADA poll to try and prove that Lieberman was as liberal as Ted Kennedy (!), and then, he reverses course in his last post, arguing that Lieberman was a "centrist" but claiming that it didn't "hurt Gore with the left of his base." I think that speaks for itself. Stripped of the rhetoric and the personal stuff, there's not much left to discuss. Quote:
If voters generally approved of the job Clinton was doing in office (which they did), then it is my argument that Al Gore should have campaigned on a platform of "I'll give you more of the same, only without Monica Lewinksy." IOTL, he didn't and lost. In an ATL, he could have done so and won. That's the argument. I think I've been pretty clear about this, but V-J has somehow misunderstood it, so I'm making another effort to clarify. Quote:
All of your polls seem to come from books I don't own that aren't online, so I can't really say anything further about those. The only resource you use that I can actually view is an opinion column from David Broder dated August 23, 1998, which, IMO, is about as relevant to the 2000 election as George H.W. Bush's 80% approval rating in August of 1990 was to the election of 1992 (i.e., not at all). Quote:
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My point isn't that Gore needed to see the future to win 2000; my point is that if he had gone with his next choice for VP, John Kerry, Gore likely would have won. The fact that Gore would have chosen Kerry for different reasons -- not because time-travellers from 2012 told him Kerry would help him hold New Hampshire -- is irrelevant to the story. This is, of course, classic alternate history. Nobody else seems to have had trouble understanding this. Quote:
__________________
People love it when you lose... they love Dirty Laundry! Read the latest entry here, or find out more on TV Tropes! |
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#86
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Al Gore lost Florida by 0.0092%. If Gore had won Florida, he would not only have won the election, he would have been given an electoral college cushion which meant he could have lost some of the states he won IOTL; if he had lost Iowa, Oregon, and New Mexico, but won Florida, he would still have won the election. Once again, your argument falls down because it is hindsight-based: apparently Gore should have known in advance of the election that he would lose Florida by a few hundred votes, and re-directed his efforts into half a dozen other swing states which were electorally insignificant by comparison instead. Gore seriously contesting Florida had nothing to do with Lieberman, it was basic electoral common sense; it was regarded as one of the key swing states well in advance of the election, and so it proved to be. It would have been seriously constested by any Democratic campaign worth its salt, because it was so electoral-vote rich the winner was almost guaranteed to be elected president, regardless of what happened in the medium-sized swing states - as indeed proved to be the case. Quote:
Needless to say, you have not given a shred of evidence to support any of these assertions - and have then had the chutzpah to claim that I have been the one not providing evidence. So, evidence, please. Let's see some evidential meat on these assertions. Actually, I'll oblige and throw some facts out. CNN Exit polling in New Hampshire suggested Nader had hurt Bush more than Gore there; if Buchanan and Nader had both not been candidates, Bush would have won 48% to 47% with 4% not voting. Nader's campaign in New Hampshire recieved the endorsement of seven municipal officials, all Republicans. Exit polling also shows broadly the same sort of pattern in Florida, and that Nader drew on a remarkably even split of voters. Evidence also suggests that in a Naderless race, Bush would have won. And it's an argument I've just disproven. Quote:
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You should probably stop claiming that things which disprove your assertions confirm them - it says nothing good for the strength of what you're forwarding. So too with the constant scrambling around looking for a concession in the tea leaves of what I'm saying. In both cases the phrase which comes inexorably to mind is 'desperation of argument'. In fact, I'm going to stop replying from now on. I think I've aired my argument in full to my own satisfaction, further replies would just result in more evasive and frankly increasingly silly argument from you as you scramble for some kind of misguided vindication. That would be pointless for both of us.
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A thing of beauty is a treasure forever
Last edited by V-J; July 31st, 2012 at 11:40 PM.. |
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#87
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I'll hold you to that. Good day.
__________________
People love it when you lose... they love Dirty Laundry! Read the latest entry here, or find out more on TV Tropes! |
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#88
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So... let's move on, shall we?
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#89
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Different Running Mates (1788-2012)
1788 George Washington/John Adams
1792 George Washington/John Adams 1796 John Adams/John Jay vs. Thomas Jefferson/Aaron Burr 1800 Thomas Jefferson/Aaron Burr vs. John Adams/Charles Pinckney 1804 Thomas Jefferson/George Clinton vs. Charles Pinckney/DeWitt Clinton 1808 James Madison/James Monroe vs. Charles Pinckney/Rufus King 1812 James Madison/James Monroe vs. DeWitt Clinton/Rufus King 1816 James Monroe/William Crawford vs. Rufus King/John Howard 1820 James Monroe/John Q. Adams 1824 John Q. Adams/John Calhoun vs. Andrew Jackson/Smith Thompson vs. William Crawford/DeWitt Clinton vs. Henry Clay/Nathan Sanford 1828 Andrew Jackson/Martin Van Buren vs. John Q. Adams/John Calhoun 1832 Andrew Jackson/Martin Van Buren vs. Henry Clay/William Harrison 1836 Martin Van Buren/Richard Johnson vs. William Harrison/Francis Granger vs. Hugh White/John Tyler vs. Daniel Webster/Francis Granger vs. Willie Mangum/John Tyler 1840 Martin Van Buren/Richard Johnson vs. William Harrison/Henry Clay 1844 James Polk/Lewis Cass vs. Henry Clay/Millard Fillmore 1848 Zachary Taylor/Daniel Webster vs. Lewis Cass/Levi Woodbury 1852 Franklin Pierce/Stephen Douglas vs. Winfield Scott/William Graham 1856 James Buchanan/John Breckinridge vs. John Fremont/Abraham Lincoln vs. Millard Fillmore/John McLean 1860 Abraham Lincoln/William Seward vs. John Breckinridge/Daniel Dickinson vs. John Bell/Edward Everett vs. Stephen Douglas/James Guthrie 1864 Abraham Lincoln/Hannibal Hamlin vs. George McClellan/George Pendleton 1868 Ulysses Grant/Schuyler Colfax vs. Horatio Seymour/George Pendleton 1872 Ulysses Grant/Henry Grant vs. Horace Greeley/Jeremiah Black 1876 Rutherford Hayes/William Wheeler vs. Samuel Tilden/Thomas Henfdricks 1880 James Garfield/Ulysses Grant vs. Winfield Hancock/Thomas Bayard 1884 Grover Cleveland/Allen Thurman vs. James Blaine/John Logan 1888 Benjamin Harrison/John Sherman vs. Grover Cleveland/Allen Thurman 1892 Grover Cleveland/David Hill vs. Benjamin Harrison/James Blaine 1896 William McKinley/Garret Hobart vs. William Bryan/Richard Bland 1900 William McKinley/Theodore Roosevelt vs. William Bryan/Adlai Stevenson I 1904 Theodore Roosevelt/William Taft vs. Alton Parker/William Hearst 1908 William Taft/James Sherman vs. William Bryan/John Kern 1912 Woodrow Wilson/Champ Clark vs. Theodore Roosevelt/Robert La Follette vs. William Taft/Nicholas Butler 1916 Woodrow Wilson/Thomas Marshall vs. Charles Hughes/John Weeks 1920 Warren Harding/Leonard Wood vs. James Cox/Franklin Roosevelt 1924 Calvin Coolidge/Frank Lowden vs. John Davis/Charles Bryan 1928 Herbert Hoover/Charles Curtis vs. Al Smith/Alben Barkley 1932 Franklin Roosevelt/Al Smith vs. Herbert Hoover/Charles Curtis 1936 Franklin Roosevelt/John Garner vs. Alf Landon/William Borah 1940 Franklin Roosevelt/William Bankhead vs. Wendell Willkie/Thomas Dewey 1944 Franklin Roosevelt/Henry Wallace vs. Thomas Dewey/John Bricker 1948 Harry Truman/Alben Barkley vs. Thomas Dewey/Earl Warren vs. Strom Thurmond/Fielding Wright 1952 Dwight Eisenhower/Robert Taft vs. Adlai Stevenson/Estes Kefauver 1956 Dwight Eisenhower/Richard Nixon vs. Adlai Stevenson/Estes Kefauver 1960 John Kennedy/Lyndon Johnson vs. Richard Nixon/Nelson Rockefeller 1964 Lyndon Johnson/Hubert Humphrey vs. Barry Goldwater/Nelson Rockefeller 1968 Richard Nixon/George Romney vs. Hubert Humphrey/Robert Kennedy (assassinated), then Eugene McCarthy vs. George Wallace/Curtis LeMay 1972 Richard Nixon/Nelson Rockefeller vs. George McGovern/Edmund Muskie 1976 Jimmy Carter/Henry Jackson vs. Gerald Ford/Nelson Rockefeller 1980 Ronald Reagan/Gerald Ford vs. Jimmy Carter/Ted Kennedy 1984 Ronald Reagan/George H. W. Bush vs. Walter Mondale/John Glenn 1988 George H. W. Bush/Bob Dole vs. Michael Dukakis/Bill Clinton 1992 Bill Clinton/Jerry Brown vs. George H. W. Bush/Bob Dole 1996 Bill Clnton/Al Gore vs. Bob Dole/Richard Lugar 2000 George W. Bush/John McCain vs. Al Gore/John Kerry 2004 George W. Bush/John McCain vs. John Kerry/John Edwards 2008 Barack Obama/Evan Bayh vs. John McCain/Tim Pawlenty 2012 Barack Obama/Hillary Clinton vs. Mitt Romney/Rob Portman 2016 Joe Biden/Andrew Cuomo vs. Chris Christie/Marco Rubio |
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#90
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__________________
People love it when you lose... they love Dirty Laundry! Read the latest entry here, or find out more on TV Tropes! |
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#91
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These are just ones that I thought should've happened.
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