Es Geloybte Aretz - a Germanwank

[Arrix85]

Originally Posted by wietze

the question remains, will they inform germany about this.

I hope, but I can see Dzerzhinsky thinking "yes, I want the Germans to win (and the independence of Poland is in their interest), but not win too much".

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Originally Posted by wietze

the question remains, will they inform germany about this.

And if they do, will they be believed. And if they are believed, what steps are politically possible at this point?

[wietze]

I agree there, they will probably think, how can those poles find out what our intelligence couldn't. They will very likely not believe it.

(bit like the way the netherlands in otl dismissed information coming from germany about the coming fall gelb)

but then again, i don't put it past dzerzhinsky to let the germans 'discover' it, after all his agenda might not be the same as the agenda on whats good for poland.

[carlton_bach]

20 May 1906, Paris

The Parisians, it was said, were as good at celebrations as anyone in the world, and the people of Montmartre the masters among the Parisians. Today, the denizens of the XVIII Arrondissement seemed to be determined to prove their reputation Many had started early, festooning street lights with red, white ands blue bunting and paper figures of crowing roosters. Someone was making a tidy bundle selling cheaply made Phrygian caps. By midday, the first crowds had formed, some of them earnestly drinking, most singing and shouting mostly good-natured cheers and political slogans. Shortly before the polling stations closed, the random knots of as yet aimless celebrants coalesced into something like a purposeful activity when a cadet in the uniform of the Ecole Polytechnique was seen walking by Sacre Coeur. Spontaneous cheering stopped the young man in his tracks, and he found himself toasted and lifted up on a cafe table to be admired and treated to food and champagne. Slightly uncertain what was expected of him, he raised the bottle in his hand for a toast to the Republic and led the crowd in a chorus of the Marseillaise. The song would be heard in the streets throughout the night.

By the early evening, the street in front of the offices of L'Aurore was packed solid with thousands of people. An area further down the road had been cleared for dancing, with the music provided by a number of volunteers who had brought instruments. The message from the polling officials came in about 9 p.m., when the first revellers had gone for torches and lanterns.Where the first round had been indecisive – almost a clean three-way split between the Socialists, the Left Radicals and the Ligue – the runoff was a wipeout. “Lamont: 17%, Clemenceau: 81%!”. Word was passed through the crowed as the poll officer pushed his way to the door. The music faded as the crowd took up the rhythmic chant: “Cle-men-ceau! Cle-men-ceau!”

After what seemed like an eternity, the door opened. Later on, people recalled this as a masterful move. Others would have come to a balcony to be celebrated; Clemenceau came out to meet the people, shake their hands and embrace them. A wave of cheering rose to the darkening sky. The deputy-elect found himself unceremoniously hoisted on the shoulders of four brawny men and presented to his electorate. “To the Assembly!” The cry was taken up enthusiastically, and the procession began moving, slowly, but purposefully. Someone struck up the Marseillaise and Clemenceau joined in with abandon. Paris was free. Tonight, France was free. It was headier than champagne and more potent than absinthe.

When they came to the Temple – the route seemed to be chosen by common consent, and the throng of cheering humanity barely diminished a long it – the men carrying their newly elected representative felt their shoulders tapped. Cöemenceau dismounted, beckoned quiet as he slowly walked forward to the tramway, a widening circle of onlookers forming around him. He knelt briefly, kissing the cool steel of the rail.

“It was here!”, he addressed the waiting crowd with tears in his eyes. “Here, where the brave young men from the Polytechnique shed their blood and laid down their lives for the Republic. It was here that the forces of tyranny and obscurantism went down in defeat. Never forget!”

The shouting that followed was fit to shatter whatever glazing had survived the bullets.

[carlton_bach]

Originally Posted by wietze

I agree there, they will probably think, how can those poles find out what our intelligence couldn't. They will very likely not believe it.

(bit like the way the netherlands in otl dismissed information coming from germany about the coming fall gelb)

but then again, i don't put it past dzerzhinsky to let the germans 'discover' it, after all his agenda might not be the same as the agenda on whats good for poland.

He doesn't think the Germans would believe it, and he is fairly convinced (with some justification) that they already have the information he has. Plus, he wants the Russians to be the attackers. A German attack on Russia at this juncture would very likely produce a free Poland - for a given value of free - and a quick peace. With the war triggered by Russian aggression, the peace would be more punitive and the fall of the dynasty a real possibility.

Dzerzhinsky is a Polish patriot, but he is a Socialist well before that.

[NovaCameron]

Yay! Wonder if France will join in Alexi's madness...

[Faeelin]

This is really making me hope you've given up on French involvement in the German-Russian War.

[carlton_bach]

Originally Posted by Faeelin

This is really making me hope you've given up on French involvement in the German-Russian War.

Like I said earlier, it isn't a wank if it ends with "Everybody Dies".

[Detlef]

Originally Posted by carlton_bach

Without Tsushima, though, the Baltic fleet has not suffered the catastrophic losses that curtailed Russian operations IOTL. In pure numbers of battleships, it is even superior to the German one, though that's only if you count superannuated vessels. But it still has the four modern and very much feared battleships of the Borodino class and an impressive array of cruisers even with several of them away at Archangelsk. Not to mention the coastal batteries on the southern side of the Gulf of Finland, which they still have control of. Losing Sveaborg hurt, but it didn't leave the capital naked. In fact, if there was a serious Russo-German confrontation in Finland at this point, it would be the Germans who would have to worry about their flank and supply lines being threatened by the Baltic Fleet.

Eek!
Serves me right.
Reading several TLs and commenting late at night leads to confused comments.
I totally forgot about no Tsushima here. So the Baltic fleet is still a definite threat.

Not so sure about the coastal batteries / defense though. The book I mentioned started with describing the Russian situation following Tsushima. The point still stands that the Russian army was responsible for them till 1911/12 - when the navy took over - and was neglecting them.

If I understand it right, fortifying the entrance of the Gulf of Finland (Abo, Hango island in Finland and Dagö, Ösel, Moon island in Estonia - as in deploying long range guns) only started after the beginning of WW1 in our TL.
Likewise Reval was only designated a "fortified zone" and new major naval base in 1911. After which the defenses there received large caliber long range guns. The new naval harbor and docks were supposed to be completed in 1917.

Major coastal defenses in 1906 seem to have existed in Sveaborg and Kronstadt (12" guns and less). With probably 10" guns defenses for the Narva harbor and Gogland island. And everything else neglected and probably only having smaller gun calibers?
So I´m not sure if the Southern part of the Gulf of Finland is really that well defended by coastal batteries yet?
Of course with the Russian Baltic fleet still existing that point is moot for now.

[Detlef]

Originally Posted by carlton_bach

He doesn't think the Germans would believe it, and he is fairly convinced (with some justification) that they already have the information he has. Plus, he wants the Russians to be the attackers. A German attack on Russia at this juncture would very likely produce a free Poland - for a given value of free - and a quick peace. With the war triggered by Russian aggression, the peace would be more punitive and the fall of the dynasty a real possibility.

Dzerzhinsky is a Polish patriot, but he is a Socialist well before that.

Dmovski waved dismissively. “Any government needs money.” he said.

“Yes, if they mobilise the better part of three million men, they do.” Dzerzhinsky waved a piece of paper covered in illegible notes in his hand now. “Given the performance of our National army so far, I'm sorry, there is no way they would need more than 300,000 men, the peacetime establishment of first-line troops, to bury us. And with their Patriotic Union thugs acting as militiua behind the lines, they would not even have to bother the garrison forces. No, even if you allow for the idea that they had to get their forces back under control, the numbers are excessive. The Russians are going to stamp out our rebellion in passing. They are preparing for a major war, and hoping nobody notices.”

Mobilizing that many men won´t go unnoticed. Lots of countries would keep an eye on the Russian situation. From Japan in the East to Germany, Austria-Hungary and the British Empire in the West. From Sweden in the North to the Ottoman Empire and British India in the South.
Misinterpreting the facts at first is a real possibility. Like Russia wants a second round with Japan. But if no new troops turn up in Asia then the attention will turn to (Russian) Europe.

[carlton_bach]

Originally Posted by Detlef

Mobilizing that many men won´t go unnoticed. Lots of countries would keep an eye on the Russian situation. From Japan in the East to Germany, Austria-Hungary and the British Empire in the West. From Sweden in the North to the Ottoman Empire and British India in the South.
Misinterpreting the facts at first is a real possibility. Like Russia wants a second round with Japan. But if no new troops turn up in Asia then the attention will turn to (Russian) Europe.

Even the Poles are looking closely, and they don't have much of a foreoign intelligence service. The great general Staff is in two minds about what's going on. It's just that nobody knows quite what exactly it is the Russians want to do with these troops. Bear in mind, military operations with division-sized forces were not entirely unusual as part of tax collection even in "normal" years. The game for the coming month or so will be much akin to Kremlinology: figure out what Ivan's next move is. It'll keep Europe's governments quite busy.

[carlton_bach]

27 May 1906, Berlin

“Welcome home. How are you feeling?” The familiar voice called Emperor Wilhelm back from the uneasy half-sleep that had been his default state over the past days. Albert had come to see him! He opened his good eye and gingerly swiveled his head to to see where he was. Gentle hands raised the head end of the bed and propped him up on a cushion so he could face his uncle seated at the foot end.

“Travelling wasn't good for me, I think.”, he answered. “But I am glad to be here. It looked like there was a big to-do when I arrived, too. Not sure, I was pretty beaten up after the train ride.”

A quick nod and understated “Some.” told him what he had suspected. People had lined the streets between the Bahnhof Zoologischer Garten and the hospital, waving flags and cheering. He had tried waving one or twice, but had found it hard to stay focused. He also recalled music.

“Generally, things went well. The Berliners will take any excuse to throw a street festival. Some folk took it badly, though. They went and trashed the offices of the Christlich-Sozialer Verein. There was nothing the police could do.”

Wilhelm attempted a smile. “My heart bleeds for them. Did anything else happen I need to know about?”

Albert arranged the chair into a more comfortable position and stroked his chin. “Well, more of the same, mostly. The Conservatives finally agreed to changing immigation law so that the Polish refugees on the border can be given work permits. Looks like the Junkers are realising they can't expect many migrant labourers for their estates this year. The Russians are stalling about the conference date, but I think August is still possible. The French Assembly elected Clemenceau Prime Minister, you've probably heard of him. A radical democrat and anticlerical. We will hear more of that. Are you all right?”

Wilhelm's head began turning sideways, the eyelid drooping. “I'm all right.” he slurred. “It's the morphine. I needed a lot more today.”

Albert looked at him with concern. “You're not recovering well, are you?”

“The doctor said I'm healing all right, it just hurts incredibly. I should be doing better when the inflammation goes away. Anyway, go on. I'm listening.”

“Nothing much else that is urgent. We think we have a handle on the refugee crisis, though there are more coming across the border again. Voting reform is going to the Herrenhaus after the summer break. That is about it.”

“Thanks.” Wilhelm was sinking back into the cushions now. “How is Fanny doing? They won't let her visit me.”

A princely eyebrow rose. “Really? The Badensians can be awful sticklers for protocol sometimes. I'm sure it can be arranged. She's coming to Berlin tomorrow, with the personal train of the duke of Hessen-Darmstadt. We couldn't have her on yours, obviously.”

The emperor's white, drawn face relaxed into something that looked more like a smile than what he had attempted earlier. He moistened his lips with his tongue before he continued. “I want her to be rewarded for what she did. Publicly.”

For a moment, Albert was taken aback. “Are you sure that is wise?”

“Don't care. I've had to pretend she's nothing to do with me. All the time. Now she should be treated like a stranger would. It's only fair.” Any random person who stepped in between the emperor and his assailant would be an instant celebrity, of course.

“If you say so. What did you have in mind? A medal?”

Wilhelm seemed to strain to collect his thoughts. “Maybe the Verdienstorden? Certainly the Rettungsmedaille.”

“And Leutnant Rosen?”

“Pour le Merite. Nothing less. And if you can think of something else....”

Albert shrugged. “I'll find out if money will be appreciated. Discreetly. And a promotion, I think.”

Wilhelm nodded again. He flinched and swallowed hard, then staid still for a few seconds before stretching out his hand to an electric bell attached to the bedframe. “I'm sorry, uncle. Won't be good for much else today.”

A nurse entered, Doctor Weisse following. The emperor shot him an imploring glance.

“It's all right after a day like this.” the doctor muttered. Quietly, he took a syringe from the bedside table and gave him his injection. Calm spread over Wilhelm's face.

“He will need to rest now, Your Highness.”

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

I really, really hope you arent getting him hooked on opiates, as its almost looking.

Otoh, i understand most dont get hooked, i tthink it depends on how chronic the pain is, which doesnt look good here.

[Monty Burns]

Dzerzhinski's information should be transfered to the Germans as fast as possible. Polish independence can only be achieved through German weapons, thus the Germans should be prepared for the Russian attack.

Originally Posted by Dathi THorfinnsson

I really, really hope you arent getting him hooked on opiates, as its almost looking.

Otoh, i understand most dont get hooked, i tthink it depends on how chronic the pain is, which doesnt look good here.

It seems to be already too late. I guess he's already addicted. But to be fair: A Kaiser that's addicted and has to delegate responsibilities to the Albert of TTL, likely a Zentrum chancellor and the general staff during war isn't that bad for Germany.

[Jonathan Edelstein]

Originally Posted by carlton_bach

They are on schedule at a leisurely pace, having recoaled and revictualled at Saigon, now approaching Antananarivo for more coal and fresh supplies.

You mean "now approaching Toamasina" - Tana's up in the highlands.

[/pedant]

[Mongo]

Originally Posted by Dathi THorfinnsson

I really, really hope you arent getting him hooked on opiates, as its almost looking.

Otoh, i understand most dont get hooked, i tthink it depends on how chronic the pain is, which doesnt look good here.

As far as I know, opiates (even heroin) that are administered for severe pain relief do not cause physical addiction. Psychological addiction is a different story, of course.

It's actually rather scandalous that heroin, which has been shown to be by far the most effective pain relief opiate for terminal cancer, as well as being completely non-addictive in that use (not that it would matter, given the circumstances), is still banned in the US, even for that purpose.

[Doctor Imperialism]

Great work as usual, carlton. I like the painstaking attention to detail as you slowly build up to the war.

[Faeelin]

Originally Posted by Mongo

As far as I know, opiates (even heroin) that are administered for severe pain relief do not cause physical addiction. Psychological addiction is a different story, of course.

While it would suit the purposes of DRAMA to have him become an addict, bear in mind that the Kaiser is in extremely serious pain and so it is not unreasonable for him to say "Hey, I feel better when I am not in searing agony." Trust me, I had to take morphine after a very intensive surgery and can relate.

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Originally Posted by Faeelin

While it would suit the purposes of DRAMA to have him become an addict, bear in mind that the Kaiser is in extremely serious pain and so it is not unreasonable for him to say "Hey, I feel better when I am not in searing agony." Trust me, I had to take morphine after a very intensive surgery and can relate.

Oh true, very true.

The other fun thing will be, will he remember these conversations?

My wife had her gall bladder out, was on morphine, seemed entirely lucid, but had no memory later that id told her of the death of a very important family friend.

[Guilherme Loureiro]

Originally Posted by carlton_bach

I'm not sure, either, so I left her out. When was she completed IOTL?

Wikipedia states her as completed in June 1905, commissioned October of the same year