The Whale has Wings

[MattII]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

They still have over 10,000 men as the second part, but the IJN is likely to refuse to even try for another landing so soon.

Do they have enough ships left, I thought they were now coming in in two waves because they'd already lost enough ships that they couldn't make it in one.

[Astrodragon]

Originally Posted by MattII

Do they have enough ships left, I thought they were now coming in in two waves because they'd already lost enough ships that they couldn't make it in one.

They have lost a lot of ships.
Probably not as much as you think, but the problem is ships in the area. It takes time to move ships around the Pacific...

[The Oncoming Storm]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

They have lost a lot of ships.
Probably not as much as you think, but the problem is ships in the area. It takes time to move ships around the Pacific...

And ships need fuel which is something the Japanese don't have a lot of...

[MattII]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

Probably not as much as you think, but the problem is ships in the area. It takes time to move ships around the Pacific...

And doing so requires pulling those ships from other areas, and IIRC the Japanese were short of what they really needed at the start of the war.

[Simreeve]

Originally Posted by PMN1

From D K Brown's 'Nelson to Vanguard.

'Pound's successor, Cunningham, was also a battleship enthusiast. Goodall was given a retirement lunch on 25th January 1944 when Cunningham said that'....there wont be an aircraft carrier afloat in twenty years time. I said I thought the battleship was dead.'

And of course the Treasury tried so hard to prove both of them right...

[Gannt the chartist]

Matt has a good point the Japanese needed 3m tonnes of shipping to support industry, and never had it. TTL that problem has no relief from captured allied ships, but is compounded by the extended LOC they do have and the loss of what were their first choice of attack transports (ok maybe not specialist ships chosen pre war.)

If they try to replace those ships the only place it can come from is the import trade- which industry do you want to shut down?

Two other complications. After the big deployment at Midway the IJN really did not have fuel for big ops with big ships. Their battle line may well only be mobile if they save up for it. With the USN and RN numbers the allies may be able to operate while the IJN is stuck in port. And if you dont sail then the carrier aircrew and and plane handling skills degrade.

Regarding the Japanese strategic debate. This is of course an opportunity for the army to point out that China is the real objective. let the Navy pull back conserve fuel and launch the Great Decisive Battle when the allies counterattack. Meanwhile finish off China a present the allies with a fait accompli no matter what happens in the Pacific.

[Astrodragon]

Originally Posted by Gannt the chartist

Matt has a good point the Japanese needed 3m tonnes of shipping to support industry, and never had it. TTL that problem has no relief from captured allied ships, but is compounded by the extended LOC they do have and the loss of what were their first choice of attack transports (ok maybe not specialist ships chosen pre war.)

If they try to replace those ships the only place it can come from is the import trade- which industry do you want to shut down?

Two other complications. After the big deployment at Midway the IJN really did not have fuel for big ops with big ships. Their battle line may well only be mobile if they save up for it. With the USN and RN numbers the allies may be able to operate while the IJN is stuck in port. And if you dont sail then the carrier aircrew and and plane handling skills degrade.

Regarding the Japanese strategic debate. This is of course an opportunity for the army to point out that China is the real objective. let the Navy pull back conserve fuel and launch the Great Decisive Battle when the allies counterattack. Meanwhile finish off China a present the allies with a fait accompli no matter what happens in the Pacific.

Which unfortunately begs the question - where does the Army get its fuel from....

[Obfuscated]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

Which unfortunately begs the question - where does the Army get its fuel from....

Japanese tanks can be pulled by horses / peasants and gain in speed

[Simon]

Originally Posted by Simreeve

And of course the Treasury tried so hard to prove both of them right...

Whilst the Treasury was often somewhat of an impediment we can't only blame them, the three services themselves also have to shoulder a large share of the blame for buggering things up royally.

[Garrison]

Originally Posted by Gannt the chartist

Regarding the Japanese strategic debate. This is of course an opportunity for the army to point out that China is the real objective. let the Navy pull back conserve fuel and launch the Great Decisive Battle when the allies counterattack. Meanwhile finish off China a present the allies with a fait accompli no matter what happens in the Pacific.

But that comes back to the same problem that drove the original attacks in SEA; a lack of resources for the Japanese war machine.

[stevep]

Originally Posted by Obfuscated

Japanese tanks can be pulled by horses / peasants and gain in speed

Obfuscated

Just thinking of how they will carry the aircraft on their backs as well.

Steve

[jlckansas]

Originally Posted by stevep

Obfuscated

Just thinking of how they will carry the aircraft on their backs as well.

Steve

Japan has lots of high mountains. Take them up there and push them off to make a gliding attack. Bit of a shorter range than they are used to, but think of the fuel savings.

[Gannt the chartist]

Well Astro if I were arguing the IJA position to God or the guy whose TL it is I would point out that 24 hours sailing for a KB + Escorts = several weeks/months for the China army - in which time we will of course crush the enemy could the Navy promise the Emperor they will annihilate the Anglo Americans in the same time?

And then I would point out to General Tojo that he is General Tojo not Admiral Tojo, and not mention what happens to people that get in the way of the destiny of the the Japanese people.

The answer of course is can the IJN work out a plausible way to force a decisive battle with the RN and keep enough of itself afloat to take on the USN.

[Gannt the chartist]

That I think I recall that Japanese Avgas position was fine until 44 on pre war stocks the real problem is fuel oil mainly for shipping, including merchant trade.

So as a weekend challenge pre Astro's determination can anyone figure out a revised Japanese Strategy that does not involve sharp blades and ceremonial burial?

[Hyperion]

Originally Posted by Gannt the chartist

Well Astro if I were arguing the IJA position to God or the guy whose TL it is I would point out that 24 hours sailing for a KB + Escorts = several weeks/months for the China army - in which time we will of course crush the enemy could the Navy promise the Emperor they will annihilate the Anglo Americans in the same time?

And then I would point out to General Tojo that he is General Tojo not Admiral Tojo, and not mention what happens to people that get in the way of the destiny of the the Japanese people.

The answer of course is can the IJN work out a plausible way to force a decisive battle with the RN and keep enough of itself afloat to take on the USN.

They've lost two light carriers, and either five or six cruisers. This isn't counting destroyers and transports and other smaller ships that have been lost. This is just in one battle.

OTL the IJN didn't loose a single cruiser until Midway, and it was a couple of months later when the Guadalcanal campaign had started before a second cruiser was finally sunk.

[Simon]

IIRC Manchukuo was fairly well developed industrially, well until the Soviets showed up and nicked most of what wasn't nailed down - then prised up the rest, and had access locally or via land to a fair amount of resources to run it on. If the Japanese do decide to go for a China first policy and the navy continues to get sunk left right and centre could we see the army in China being supplied more by local production and gaining a fair amount of autonomy as Japan and their supplies get more cut off? Considering that the Kwantung army was already chock full of nationalistic nutters this could make it even harder for the central government to try and rein them in and exert some influence.

[sloreck]

Even in this scenario the Japanese are going to be able to control the waters between Japan and Manchukuo, Korea, and at least North China for some time. The problem is that the resources of SEA are needed not just to fuel (literally) the IJA & IJN but all sorts of raw materials are needed to keep Japanese industry up & producing. You can only work around raw material shortages somewhat, and cheesing on metallurgy (for example) means armor less effective, engines less powerful (HP/kg) - this leads to increased fuel consumption..oops, and so forth. Other stuff simply can't be done without.

Even if ASBs let the Japanese create a military situation in China which was a "fait accompli", ITTL Japanese industry simply will not be able to produce the stuff they need to accomplish the task. Of course, a defense where we are now in the Pacific + go for broke policy in China will simply let the Allies send resources to China that OTL were used elsewhere. B-17's and B-24's have the range to attack industrial plant in Manchukuo, even before B-29's come on board to bomb Japan directly, and ITTL supplying these bomb groups will not require all those hump flights.

[Gannt the chartist]

I never said it would work just that the IJA would argue for it.

This is the Oh shit moment, the resource grab has failed and the allies are beginning to counterattack. Japan has five choices.

1. Try again for the resource grab on the DEI.

2. Go defensive in the Pacific and keep on trying to conquer China.

3. Get out of China and focus all resources on defending against the allies

4. Invade the USSR in a hope that this speeds up the Russian Collapse.

5. make peace aka Surrender.

1. May be impossible for naval reasons but also requires more ground forces.
2. Is really what they did OTL but with the resource base gone and the long glacis of the island bases gone also puts more emphasis on the Armies views.
3. Is something the Army has to agree to and as said above just allows the allies Chinese bases and manpower
4. Is daft but no more insane than attacking Pearl.
5. well yes but can anyone see anything but abject surrender being acceptable to the allies and that being acceptable to the Japanese military?

[Garrison]

Thing is however good a case the Army can make for a China first policy it's probably all going to get thrown out when the Doolittle Raid hits Tokyo. They simply can't leave the Home Islands and the Emperor exposed, and the humiliation will drive them to do something about the US in the Pacific however unreasonable the plan might be.

[tchizek]

Originally Posted by Garrison

Thing is however good a case the Army can make for a China first policy it's probably all going to get thrown out when the Doolittle Raid hits Tokyo. They simply can't leave the Home Islands and the Emperor exposed, and the humiliation will drive them to do something about the US in the Pacific however unreasonable the plan might be.

Plus the Japanese KNOW they can't win without the resources available in the DEI. So they are basically stuck with, "Take the DEI no matter what". Both the Navy and the Army know this, that's why they started the war in the first place - to get those resources. If they don't get those resources (or some reasonable subset of them) their economy collapses, end of story, no more Japanese Empire.

Even the most narrow minded of Japanese policy makers that were sure that they could take on the world knew that they could only take on the world if they had resources to use in the fight.