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Old July 14th, 2012, 04:30 AM
Emperor Norton I Emperor Norton I is offline
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Challenge: Vietnam Keeps American POWs After the War

There was a popular idea for a long time, which persists even today, that after the Vietnam war was over, Communist Vietnam still held a significant number of American POWs which it refused to release, and that were swept under the rug by the US government because it did not want to deal with their recovery. You can see this idea in a number of films from the 80s when it seems the idea was at its peak. This was all very conspiratorial and investigations never supported the idea, and eventually it faded. Another problem with the idea is that the Vietnamese really were not vindictive in their nature about the war once it was over.

The challenge, therefore, is to find a way to have Vietnam keep American POWs after the war.
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Old July 14th, 2012, 04:50 AM
Bureaucromancer Bureaucromancer is offline
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The challenge is, IMO, not so much creating a Vietnam that might want to, but a United States that would be willing to allow it. I just don't see a way of creating a country that isn't willing to go to war to recover POWs in any way that doesn't fundamentally change the nature of the Vietnam war in the first place.
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Old July 14th, 2012, 04:53 AM
Matt Wiser Matt Wiser is online now
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Ah....the book An Enormous Crime comes back. Written by former U.S. Congressman Bill Hendon (R-NC)....he put together declassified intelligence reports, interviews with Vietnamese defectors done with the Military in the 1970s and '80s, satellite and SR-71 photos, etc. Even the Senate Select Committee in 1992 felt that "a small number" had been left behind.

OK: want the Viets to have a reason? Here you go: Nixon and Kissinger promised the NVN during the Paris peace talks that the U.S. would provide North Vietnam postwar reconstruction assistance, to the tune of $3.25 Billion Dollars (1972 figures). There was a problem: the money would have to be appropriated by the U.S. Congress. And when the POWs who did return in 1973 told their stories of torture and abuse, Congress was not in the mood to vote funds. Nixon and Kissinger felt that it was necessary, as the NVN promised to abide by the Paris Peace Accords for at least five years if the aid was provided. Then something called Watergate blew out into the open....

How many left behind in this possible scenario? ISTR from the book that Brig Gen. Eugene Tighe, who was Chief of Intelligence for Pacific Command in 1972, put together a report that estimated how many POWs the U.S. should expect to have returned. He expected a total between 900 and 1200. (His report has not been declassified, despite a general declassification of Vietnam POW-MIA documentation) Tighe and his analysts were shocked when only 591 came back. And there were at least a hundred airmen alone in both NVN and Laos who were known to be alive on the ground, believed captured, but not returned. And there were several known captured who did not return as well: the NVN claimed "no knowledge" of those individuals. General Tighe, who was DIA director in the late '70s and early '80s felt there were POWs alive in SEA, intelligence that they felt was verifiable indicated that fact, and nothing was done. He died in the mid '90s, still feeling that he'd not accomplished his mission of bringing people back.

Possible? There were reports post-Korea of POWs left behind in North Korea and China, so there's that. NVN capable? Yes-and this includes the Pathet Lao as well. Did it happen? I just don't know.
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Old July 14th, 2012, 05:01 AM
Bureaucromancer Bureaucromancer is offline
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I've always found the suggestions of Korean POWs being left behind considerably more likely. Between how much colder the cold war was in the late 50s, the deeper involvement of both China and the Soviet Union and how ugly the air war was at times (and the intelligence value attached to airmen as a result) it seems considerably more likely that a small number could have ended up outside Korea, at which point returning them seems distinctly unlikely. In Vietnam on the other hand I'm quite inclined to believe that there were some number of unaccounted for airmen, but the nature of that war was such that it is quite reasonable to think that some might have been killed immediately, and conditions were such that it's not terribly surprising that fewer than expected would have survived internment.
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Old July 14th, 2012, 05:36 AM
Matt Wiser Matt Wiser is online now
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To me, the most compelling evidence that's been unclassified was satellite photography. On several occasions in the 1970s and 80s, morse code was seen on photos of rooftops of two prisons: one in Haiphong and the other at a prison NE of Haiphong And there were several other instances of classified Escape and Evasion Codes also being seen on the photography. Each aircrew member in SEA had an assigned E&E Code, to use on the radio, or through other means, as an authenticator. At least two codes are known to have matched: one was to a USAF Captain who was still missing, and another to a still-missing USAF Major; and there may still be reports of codes matching to missing aircrew that haven't been released yet. (Not all POW-MIA information has been declassified)

Personally, I think it possible that people were left behind, but I have no idea how many. The Senate Committee felt about a hundred may have been left behind-and that's just those in North Vietnam. 396 were lost in Laos, and the PL admitted in 1972 that "about 200" were in their custody. Only 10 POWs (9 Americans and one Canadian missionary held with the Americans) came out of Laos: and they'd been captured by the NVA and taken right to Hanoi soon after. Nobody known to have been captured by the PL-apart from two escapees (one in '64, the other in '66) came home. And a number of those on General Tighe's list of those expected to come home were from Laos. (two were very well known: USAF Capts. Charles Shelton and David Hrdllicka: the latter's voice was heard on PL radio, pleading for an end to the war, but both never appeared on any of the 1973 lists of POWs who were returned-and neither was also on any "died in captivity" list)
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Old July 14th, 2012, 05:46 AM
black angel black angel is online now
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Ross Perot was a big believer in the conspiracy theory that there were hundreds of POWs in South-East Asia and the US government or military was covering it up, spent the late 1980s early 90s bugging Congress and the Reagan and Bush administrations, Perot personally tried to ruin Richard Armitage's life, linking him (with no proof) to drug dealing, illegal gambling, human smuggling and prostitution as well as the cover up of American POWs in 'nam to members of Congress and gave his name to the FBI for these things (the FBI found nothing) it basically stalled out Armitage's career
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Old July 14th, 2012, 07:23 AM
SergeantHeretic SergeantHeretic is online now
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The legend of "Our boys left in the hands of those dirty gooks by those lying backstabbing cowardly politicians is part and parcel of the larger and more ingrained "Doltchstosslegende" of the Vietnam war. It specifically serves as a supposed Cassus Belli for "Going back and giving it to those gooks good for humiliating us."

The POW's are not real concret people in such scenarios, they are merely the anthropomorphised representations of AMerica's perception of our "Lost honor."
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Old July 14th, 2012, 12:56 PM
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There was never much doubt in the late 1970s and 1980s that some POWs were left behind in Vietnam. One of the first POWs released on humanitarian grounds came back with a memorized list of known POWs in NVA hands. IIRC a number of those men were not among the POWs who eventually returned. Someone once noted that POWs with engineering training were especially likely to be among the missing, leading to the assumption that they were kept to help rebuild Vietnam.

The point about Pathet Lao POWs is well taken. No American who was lost in Laos and captured by the PL was ever returned that I'm aware of. It has long been assumed that they were all executed at some point.

Some POWs captured during the Korean War chose to stay behind after having been heavily indoctrinated during their captivity. A few of them returned to the US in the 60s and 70s. None who were transferred to Chinese control ever returned.
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Old July 14th, 2012, 05:13 PM
Matt Wiser Matt Wiser is online now
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Even Bob Garwood, the Marine captured by the VC in '65 and who became a collaborator (some say he did it to just plain survive), said in 1984-85 that he'd seen POWs in captivity on several occasions post -1973. And guess what? When Garwood's information was published in a feature Wall Street Journal article, several former DIA people-including General Tighe, said his information confirmed what they'd seen while at the agency. And Garwood, who got a court-martial in 1981 after his 1979 return, was not formally debriefed; until 1987. And he had several full or partial names of other Americans: that information has not been revealed, but a check of his list against the 1986 list of MIAs revealed several possible matches, according to the article.

And there were sightings of Garwood at a Prison in Yen Bai circa 1976-79 by ARVN prisoners, and if they weren't lying about him, they couldn't have been lying about seeing other Americans in captivity. Something to think about.
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Old July 14th, 2012, 08:07 PM
SergeantHeretic SergeantHeretic is online now
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Matt, and Cash all of that is totally irrelevent to the true nugget of the POW-MIA issue as it relates directly to the American Doltchstosslegende.

"Those dirty politicians and cowardly peaceniks left our brave boys behind, we were STABBED IN THE BACK! We gotta go back to vee-it Narm and give them thar dirty gooks whar fer!"
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Old July 14th, 2012, 09:16 PM
MerryPrankster MerryPrankster is offline
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Originally Posted by SergeantHeretic View Post
Matt, and Cash all of that is totally irrelevent to the true nugget of the POW-MIA issue as it relates directly to the American Doltchstosslegende.

"Those dirty politicians and cowardly peaceniks left our brave boys behind, we were STABBED IN THE BACK! We gotta go back to vee-it Narm and give them thar dirty gooks whar fer!"
So the fact it may be true is irrelevant to your insistence it's no more valid than the Stab In The Back Myth?

If it's true, it destroys it, or at least that aspect of it.
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Old July 14th, 2012, 09:17 PM
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The question that has to be answered is a lot simpler than "Did The Viets or PL or KR PRC or USSR keep any PoW and who, if anyone in DC knew?"

The question is actually this:

Does ANYONE believe that EVERY White House since Nixon along with EVERY DCI, DDI, DIA, NSA, SecDef, SecState, member of the Joint Chiefs was able to keep this secret to this very day?

Or

Does anyone believe that the Washington Post, New York Times, Der Tag, CNN, Drudge Report, and ALL the other major and minor new organizations with investigative arms and muckrakers haven't been able to turn up reliable evidence, especially in countries where you can BUY 12 year old kids for $200 U.S.?

I would say the answer to both questions, especially in today's No Hold's Barred political world, where attack ads are the way to win elections, and where the Media has NO scared cows, is a resounding No.

I would also say that it a LOT easier to believe that the VC or PL or KR simply executed a PoW when they became too much of a pain in the ass to keep around and that the gross mistreatment of PoW by the North Vietnamese killed an extra 600 prisoners between 1968 and 1973 than any sort of long term retention by Hanoi.
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Old July 14th, 2012, 09:18 PM
MerryPrankster MerryPrankster is offline
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And CalBear drops the Occam's Razor bomb, more lethal than any napalm.
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Old July 14th, 2012, 10:21 PM
SergeantHeretic SergeantHeretic is online now
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Originally Posted by MerryPrankster View Post
So the fact it may be true is irrelevant to your insistence it's no more valid than the Stab In The Back Myth?

If it's true, it destroys it, or at least that aspect of it.
No, the POINT is that weather it is true or not is completly irrelevent to those who cling to this myth as a way to try and rescue their own flagging nationalism.

"AMerican can't lose a war, so if we lost the war then we must have been STABBED in the BACK!!!!!! OH NOEZ ZOMG!"

This has it's direct corrolary, "America never leaves a man behind, so if we left a man behind, it was because we were STABBED IN THE BACK OH NOEZ ZOMG!!!!!!!"

If their actually WERE men left behind, that makes it even worse, because in that case this corrolary of the Doltchstosslegende is completly oblivious to the facts of the case or the people involved.
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Old July 14th, 2012, 10:23 PM
SergeantHeretic SergeantHeretic is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CalBear View Post
The question that has to be answered is a lot simpler than "Did The Viets or PL or KR PRC or USSR keep any PoW and who, if anyone in DC knew?"

The question is actually this:

Does ANYONE believe that EVERY White House since Nixon along with EVERY DCI, DDI, DIA, NSA, SecDef, SecState, member of the Joint Chiefs was able to keep this secret to this very day?

Or

Does anyone believe that the Washington Post, New York Times, Der Tag, CNN, Drudge Report, and ALL the other major and minor new organizations with investigative arms and muckrakers haven't been able to turn up reliable evidence, especially in countries where you can BUY 12 year old kids for $200 U.S.?

I would say the answer to both questions, especially in today's No Hold's Barred political world, where attack ads are the way to win elections, and where the Media has NO scared cows, is a resounding No.

I would also say that it a LOT easier to believe that the VC or PL or KR simply executed a PoW when they became too much of a pain in the ass to keep around and that the gross mistreatment of PoW by the North Vietnamese killed an extra 600 prisoners between 1968 and 1973 than any sort of long term retention by Hanoi.
BAM!

BING BANG BOOGIE!

The POWs returned in 1973 were the ones who SURVIVED!

Every other POW was a fatality of northern cruelty and duress.
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Old July 14th, 2012, 10:41 PM
pnyckqx pnyckqx is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CalBear View Post
The question that has to be answered is a lot simpler than "Did The Viets or PL or KR PRC or USSR keep any PoW and who, if anyone in DC knew?"

The question is actually this:

Does ANYONE believe that EVERY White House since Nixon along with EVERY DCI, DDI, DIA, NSA, SecDef, SecState, member of the Joint Chiefs was able to keep this secret to this very day?

Or

Does anyone believe that the Washington Post, New York Times, Der Tag, CNN, Drudge Report, and ALL the other major and minor new organizations with investigative arms and muckrakers haven't been able to turn up reliable evidence, especially in countries where you can BUY 12 year old kids for $200 U.S.?

I would say the answer to both questions, especially in today's No Hold's Barred political world, where attack ads are the way to win elections, and where the Media has NO scared cows, is a resounding No.

I would also say that it a LOT easier to believe that the VC or PL or KR simply executed a PoW when they became too much of a pain in the ass to keep around and that the gross mistreatment of PoW by the North Vietnamese killed an extra 600 prisoners between 1968 and 1973 than any sort of long term retention by Hanoi.
Thank you for putting yet another conspiracy theory to bed.

This is one that should have been strangled in it's crib.

Expect fireworks to begin shortly. You can watch them all you want, i'll stay out of it.
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Old July 14th, 2012, 10:46 PM
black angel black angel is online now
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Originally Posted by CalBear View Post
I would also say that it a LOT easier to believe that the VC or PL or KR simply executed a PoW when they became too much of a pain in the ass to keep around and that the gross mistreatment of PoW by the North Vietnamese killed an extra 600 prisoners between 1968 and 1973 than any sort of long term retention by Hanoi.
basically, the most likely outcome for whatever MIA we have from 'Nam is that they were ether killed, died from mistreatment or escaped and died in the Jungle, I view as highly unlikely were were any POWs lift in country post-1973 and I'm more like to believe in the risen Christ than believe than even if there were any POWs post-1973 that they'd be still alive during the 1980s when this conspiracy theory got popular
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Old July 14th, 2012, 10:48 PM
SergeantHeretic SergeantHeretic is online now
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Originally Posted by pnyckqx View Post
Thank you for putting yet another conspiracy theory to bed.

This is one that should have been strangled in it's crib.

Expect fireworks to begin shortly. You can watch them all you want, i'll stay out of it.
The POW-MIA consiracy is one of the more shameful ones specifically because it ressurects ghosts and the nhas the temerity, the Gall the unmitigated chutzpah to exploit those ghosts specifically to advance a socio-political agenda. Specifically:

"The people I dissagree with don't WANT to do anything about OUR POOR BOYS but I do, I'll bring back our honor and give what for to those dirty yellow gooks."

I have trouble thinking of anything more disgusting than such a practice.

Not just because if rasies tourtuous false hopes i nthe hearts of berieved famiuly and uses them as political footballs as well.
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Old July 14th, 2012, 11:40 PM
John Farson John Farson is online now
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Originally Posted by SergeantHeretic View Post
The POW-MIA consiracy is one of the more shameful ones specifically because it ressurects ghosts and the nhas the temerity, the Gall the unmitigated chutzpah to exploit those ghosts specifically to advance a socio-political agenda. Specifically:

"The people I dissagree with don't WANT to do anything about OUR POOR BOYS but I do, I'll bring back our honor and give what for to those dirty yellow gooks."

I have trouble thinking of anything more disgusting than such a practice.

Not just because if rasies tourtuous false hopes i nthe hearts of berieved famiuly and uses them as political footballs as well.
Just out of curiosity, what do you think of such 80s action films like Rambo II or Chuck Norris' Missing in Action I & II, in which the whole "remaining POWs" thing is the excuse for the hero to return to Vietnam and defeat the Vietnamese Army singlehandedly?
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Old July 15th, 2012, 02:12 AM
Jim Smitty Jim Smitty is offline
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I say Calbear is right for the most part.

But I got a hunch, a few, mostly likely no more than two dozen, American POWs got moved to the Soviet Union. These POWs IMO were high ranking officers with intel in their heads, the Soviets would want to know about. But if this happen they were killed before the 1980s even started. I give this at best 50/50 odds.
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