A Shift in Priorities

[rast]

Originally Posted by Adler17

What about the Japanese BC Hiei and Kirishima? Adler

Sold to the Indian Federation some time ago, when Japan urgently required money. Hiei = IFS Ashoka, Kirishima = IFS Babar.

[Monty Burns]

Originally Posted by Bmao

If you look at the trend of TTL, top down economics has shown a tendency to fail. Also, while the Japanese have politically moved away from being completely dominated by the military to having a civilian government, while the Japanese government would say one thing about increasing the standard of living for the Koreans, when actually put into practice, given the way that the Zaibatsu are structured and the way they conduct business, they'd focus on maximizing profits, keeping labor costs down to the bare minimum, constructing infrastructure in such a manner that it facilitates the extraction of resources, and ensuring that the fruits of Korean labor benefit Japan rather than the Koreans. Nowhere in the timeline was there ever a mention that the way the economy is structured was reformed from OTL, that the Zaibatsu have become any less of an oligopoly.

I don't know whether top down economics really fail ITTL. I guess this is more a question of defining economic progress and standard of living: I guess the Japanese are investing heavily in Korea, and the standard of living is improving. But an OTL comparison could be China: the population is essentially used for low-wage work. Additionally, the domestic mineral ressources are developped - according to Japanese interests. But as with China, this sets up a situation in which Korea gets its workforce educated, gets its economy/society transformed from rural/agricultural to industrial and gets some decent infrastructuer and cash products (minerals, cheap goods). That's not transforming Korea into a new Japan, but it helps nonetheless.

Originally Posted by Bmao

The Japanese civilian government can't afford to alienate any of the Big 4 Companies; Sumitomo, Mitsubishi, Mitsui and Yasuda, because if they do the economy would collapse or they could be thrown out of power. Furthermore, the militarist element was basically given a free hand to be as brutal as necessary in Korea, and considering how integrated the military establishment is with the Zaibatsu that gives me further reason to believe that most likely while the Japanese government may preach that they're desiring to uplift the Koreans, the reality is completely different.

The zaibatsu want to make money. Thus they develop infrastructure to get minerals and cheaply produced goods out of Korea, they set up factories, refineries and mines for those products and they begin educating the workforce (even though all higher ranks are Japanese). That's not benevolent development of Korea, far from it, but Korea will benefit of it. It's only a matter of time that the Korean middle class evolves and grows, and the Zaibatsu's won't mind selling those people whatever they want. I imagine it to follow pretty much the development of the East Asian and South East Asian states.

It will get really interesting when the colonial power realizes that Koreans already started competitive enterprises. IOTL, the investors from Western states couldn't do much about that development. ITTL, it's different with Japan still ruling Korea.

Originally Posted by Bmao

Again, as for China and Japan's motivations in Hawaii, for China its very easy for them to say they support Hawaiian 'independence' because it makes them look good and they can simply make money off the Japanese. While it is in China's interests in keeping the Western Pacific free of foreign influence, and the Japanese Navy is best equipped to do that, at the same time I find it highly doubtful that they want the Japanese to dominate the Pacific either.

Absolutely. As I already said, this is a win-win situation for China: if Japan succeeds, the Amis are out of the Western Pacific, if Japan fails, they are reminded on who is really the big guy.

Originally Posted by Bmao

Japan, I think, should have been suspicious of the reasons that China may have been supporting the Hawaiian adventure. Once the US was gone from the Phillippines, Japan basically had everything they needed to promote a prosperous economic zone and the US was in the middle of shooting itself in the foot in Hawaii. However, Japan got greedy, and I think were starting to get a case of victory disease, and I think that China might have realized as such and wanted to encourage the Japanese into a situation where they'd overreach.

Not sure whether the Japanese got "greedy". Right now the main goal of Japanese politics definitely is to get rid of Chinese domination. To do so, they promote a Chinese-Russian war, they try to act as a great power and assure their influence, they try to use their reliable military assets (=navy) politically. Ultimately, we likely have to see the Hawaiian gamble within the context of Japan trying to get rid of Chinese hegemony.

From that viewpoint, it's likely that the Japanese escalate the situation. Trying to pick on a foreign power on your own to show the world your power in comparison to the local hegemon is a frequent strategy. Nothing shows better how small your influence is like going home without a shot fired and the planned failed completely.

Originally Posted by Bmao

I think we also have to explore the context of why Japan made the decision to intervene in Hawaii. The civilian government, which has been described as favoring a prudent foreign policy of restraint, would have been the group most likely to see the potential pitfalls in intervening - War with the US, overextension of its supply lines, committing itself to an ideological stance of freedom that contradicts its Korea policy, so my conclusion is that a combination of the militarists and the Zaibatsu pushed for it.

The Zaibatsus and the military will definitely be the most vocal supporters of breaking Chinese hegemony.

Originally Posted by Bmao

The Zaibatsu are looking at this from an opportunity for commercial expansion, and that any free Hawaii that results would be in a state of economic dependance similar to how Latin America was to the US. The militarists motivation is that after the string of success in the Phillippines and given that its been more than 10 years after the Chita Disaster, that this is their chance to thrust themselves back into prominence, and considering that Prince Fushimi approved of it, and that in OTL he was Chief of Staff of the Imperial Japanese navy, and traditionally the Japanese military were the ones behind any orders coming from the royal family, suggests their involvement in influencing the decision.

You cannot underestimate how important it is that the military can make the claim that they are legitimately speaking for the Emperor and the royal family, who are regarded as gods. If the Civilian government protests too hard, then the military can portray it that the Civilian government is going against the will of the Emperor. The militarists can also use that argument to silence any form of significant form of protest from the civilian population.

Faced up against the pressure of these two groups, I think the Japanese civilian government had to give in.

Which brings me to another point. I don't think that the Chita disaster was enough to permanantly weaken both the militarist faction and the Zaibatsus, which have been entrenched long before the Meiji Era, the former of which has always held political power, and latter of which came about during the growth of the merchant class which grew increasingly wealthy during the Tokugawa, and then when Industrialization took hold, morphed into the Zaibatsu. Prime Minister Hara in the 20s may have removed some key individuals who were responsible for that disaster, but the very structure wasn't changed. Japan's constitution was drafted in such a manner that ensured these two entities would have special priviledges. Thus, for all the talk that Japan is seemingly a more enlightened nation ITTL, the entities that plagued Japan in the 30s and 40s OTL, the military and the Zaibatsu, still remain.

It took WWII for these two entities to be demolished, and they're too well entrenched in Japanese society, hisorically or otherwise, for them to be removed from the equation without some sort of radical shift, or at least nothing less than what's going on in the US ITTL right now.

I think the interest in Hawaii is actually rather small. There won't be much money to be made, a naval base there is interesting - but on the very fringes of Japanese main interest: the economic zone in Asia it wants to dominate alone.

I think the US just seemed to be a weak victim of a show of force, and Japan happily took the foreign adventure to assure its own strength to its co-propserity partners. If there was a Russian civil war going right now, the Japanese had landed in Kamtchatka.

[Adler17]

Originally Posted by rast

Sold to the Indian Federation some time ago, when Japan urgently required money. Hiei = IFS Ashoka, Kirishima = IFS Babar.

Ah, thanks.

Adler

[rast]

Optimist: person who travels on nothing from nowhere to happiness.
(Mark Twain)

The drone of the engines certainly would have been deafening – without the headphones handed out by the crew before takeoff, Kurusu Saburō thought thankfully while scanning through his documents again. The L3M, also known as Mitsubishi Ki-20, was forging ahead towards its distant designation – the Hawaiian Islands. Kurusu, the Japanese Empire’s designated ambassador to Honolulu, and his small-sized staff had been ordered to board the naval transport aircraft on short notice, swapping a programmed comfortable ocean liner passage for the noisy vibrating airframe and a lot of uneasiness about how this journey was going to end.

Kurusu’s wife, Alice Jay, who together with the couple’s two daughters had been scheduled to accompany him on the ship voyage, had – in the light of these sudden developments – stayed behind in Tokyo with the girls. His son, Ryo, was already on Hawaii – adding much to Kurusu’s displeasure and uneasiness. Nevertheless, the fact that he, Kurusu, was married to an Amerika-Jin had qualified him for the post in Honolulu – and caused his rapid promotion to ambassador. – But it also provided him with the unsought opportunity to gloriously die a sudden death for Nippon.

The L3M was the Japanese copy of the Junkers Ju-38, which had seen widespread and quite successful use by the Pan-Turan Commonwealth in the Central Asian War. Not renowned for aeronautical elegance even when constructed by German workers and engineers, the Ju-38 at least had gained a reputation of rugged reliability during the nocturnal raids on the Chinese railways to Xinjiang. However, the L3M had become more famous for some spectacular crashes during testing. But it was the only airframe that could shoulder the trip from Tokyo to Honolulu, thus – when the Hawaiian crisis had escalated – Kurusu and his assistants had been wedged into a plane and dispatched to Honolulu.

The Japanese Armed Forces – unlike most other contemporary armed forces – had not added an air force as third service, but had retained an army air force and a naval air force. Too unique were the requirements of army and navy to allow the formation of an overarching third service. The army air force was responsible for close air support to the ground forces and air defence of the homeland, the naval air force for close air support to the navy and strategic missions. The L3M was the result of an attempt at strategic bombing. It eventually had not been introduced into service – because the only imaginable targets for such a plane could logically only be found in China... Thus, one had quickly declared the plane as experimental, and only procured a handful for ‘special’ missions.

Like the ‘special’ mission of shuttling Kurusu to Hawaii. The plan was simple: One would approach the islands during the hours of darkness and land on Wheeler Airfield, which was firmly in the hands of the freedom fighters – and large enough to allow an L3M to land. – If the big bird ever made to Oahu, and if the crew managed to bring it down safely...

Kurusu checked his prestigious Seiko watch: still at least eight hours to go. – The crew had given him headphones but no throat microphone; so, he could listen to their chatter but was unable to ask any questions. – The situation on and around Hawaii had grown rather complicated, he understood. The Amerika-Jin were loath to release the islands to independence. Nippon had – rashly and hardly wisely – committed herself to supporting Hawaiian indenpendece – without any reciprocal promise from the Hawaiian side...

Kurusu was now left to sort things out – and to design reasonable relations to the Commonwealth of Hawaii without pissing off the Amerika-Jin more than necessary. He was not very happy about his assignment. There was a huge potential that Nippon and the USA might go to war over the islands, something he would regret very much. – If the US were serious about democracy, they had to recognise that the majority of people living on Hawaii – non-whites in their perception – did not want to remain third class citizens and slaves of their white masters and had elected to secede.

But from what information Kurusu had been gathering, an imminent violent conflagration could not be ruled out. Nippon had committed herself too much, she could no longer simply ease out without losing her face. And the Amerika-Jin had been found ready to resort to violence – just like one knew them so well...

[wietze]

i see a distinct possibility that in the heat of the conflict a liner thats actually a converted bomber, could get mistaken for a bomber. And as a result gets downed.

[Expat]

Oy, talk about high stakes. If Kurusu fails to find a way to stop the conflict from escalating, his son will be a likely casualty. That is, if he makes it to the islands.

[Peabody-Martini]

Air travel was an iffy prospect into the 1940s, the Ki-20 IOTL had the range to undertake the flight as depicted. It's just that long flights over water have rather obvious and serious consequences if something goes wrong.

In the matter of Hawaii the Japanese are looking for a face saving way out. At the same time the US is in no shape to engage in a protracted war. So a diplomatic solution might prove to be a way out for the parties involved.

As has been noted Hawaii is barely within the logistical reach of the IJN. One of the very real possibilities is that this crisis will convince the powers-that-be in the Japanese Navy that in the event of a war with the US they will need the ability to conduct operations in the Eastern Pacific. How they go about that could prove interesting.

[Monty Burns]

Originally Posted by wietze

i see a distinct possibility that in the heat of the conflict a liner thats actually a converted bomber, could get mistaken for a bomber. And as a result gets downed.

I think that's planned in. The US shooting down an unarmed Japanese plane brings the US in a defensive situation: either they apologize and make some concessions, or they go for war.

Naturally, this escalates further an already messy situation...

[Bmao]

Originally Posted by Peabody-Martini

As has been noted Hawaii is barely within the logistical reach of the IJN. One of the very real possibilities is that this crisis will convince the powers-that-be in the Japanese Navy that in the event of a war with the US they will need the ability to conduct operations in the Eastern Pacific. How they go about that could prove interesting.

The only realistic way they'd go about doing that with WWII-esque technology would be to capture Pearl Harbor, which would lead to war with the US obviously.

I agree fully with Monty Burns that the Japanese are fully anticipating that Kurusu's transport plane is spotted and then shot down, and even if not, and Kurusu lands, there is no way that the US would accept any form of an independent Hawaii, thus either way, gives Japan an excuse to commense hostilities.

If I can make a prediction though, what I think the US does is fly sorties around them, sort of what the Red Airforce tried to do with the Berlin Airlift in order to make them crash; with a cumbersome bomber not designed for a direct flight from Japan to Hawaii, even the slightest mishap could cause the airplane to go tumbling down. Then, the US can claim that the plane suffered from 'mechanical failure' and that it was an 'accident', in which if it took place in the dark, Japan would have difficulty definitively proving it was foul play, and puts the onus back on Japan. Rasts 2nd to last post proves as much that the US pilots are good at such disrupting maneuvers, and I think this is what Bagley would try.

[rast]

When we remember we are all mad, the mysteries disappear and life stands explained.
(Mark Twain)

The Nips had arrived now. A nice proper fleet, this Admiral Bagley had to admit, well trimmed and with excellent paintjobs. Also, their manoeuvres were executed very neatly. – So far, they had behaved as he had told them to, keeping meticulously away from the three-mile-zone. And because the sea was very rough, the islanders had not tried to sail out either in order to unload the goodies brought along. Not that Bagley had the intention to allow that in better weather; he had already detached three older destroyers as guards to prevent the insurgents from visiting their yellow friends.

Bagley was curious how long the Nips would endure that game. They couldn’t sustain their readiness forever. Well, his fleet could neither, but the Japs were in the far worse position, weren’t they. – There were long radio messages being sent between that Nip Admiral’s flagship and Japan. Unfortunately, one couldn’t read them, but Bagley could guess what was going on. – These little yellow fellows had cut a bigger piece off the pie than they could eat. Now, they were spouting how to get out of this dilemma again.

Thank goodness that San Diego hadn’t changed their minds. He was still entitled to defend Hawaii and to suppress the insurgency. Colonel Crittenberger had been promoted Brigadier General and officially been given command of the Hawaiian Division, which at the same time had been subordinated under Bagley. – This, in Bagley’s mind, was a clear sign of utter confusion in Washington. Otherwise, an Army outfit would never have been assigned to a fleet command.

He had tasked Crittenberger with taking Oahu. The island was the key to Hawaii. Who held Oahu controlled the bulk of the population. This would hardly succeed without bloodshed, but Bagley wanted the Army dudes to act quickly and decisively. Therefore, Bagley had agreed to meticulous planning prior to execution; everything had to go like clockwork. Crittenberger would be in charge of all combat on land, while Bagley kept the watch on the Nips. – That meant Crittenberger would get no support from the carrier-borne aircraft, something the chap hadn’t liked at all. But Bagley had been adamant; if the little yellow men went hostile, he needed all his flyboys for himself.

Bagley checked his watch. Half an hour still, then the dance would begin on Oahu. Time to visit the loo and empty the bowels. That made conducting business less exertive afterwards. He guessed he wouldn’t get any sleep or rest in the next hours.

[Expat]

After thinking it over, I have to say that this could easily go very poorly for the Americans. They're not very well supported and the geography of Oahu is an absolute bitch. Starting from the island's low point around Pearl, it's drastically uphill any direction you want to go. The path to downtown Honolulu from Pearl is directly perpendicular to a massive ridgeline. If the Hawaiians have any artillery at all, they've had time to place them on the ridges, which put them completely on the flank of the enemy advance and utterly inaccessible to that enemy.

Of course the Hawaii Division has discipline on their side (in theory) and it's possible they could simply over-awe the Hawaiians. But if that doesn't happen, I give them 48 hours tops before the terrain defeats them.

[wietze]

Seems that the plane with Ambassador Kurusu Saburō will arrive just in time to catch the americans on high alert, under such edgy situations things can go wrong very easy.

And agree with monty that an unfortunate incident is very likely in the plans of the japanese (ideal casus belli), i take it the plane has diplomatic status.

[Bmao]

Originally Posted by Expat

After thinking it over, I have to say that this could easily go very poorly for the Americans. They're not very well supported and the geography of Oahu is an absolute bitch. Starting from the island's low point around Pearl, it's drastically uphill any direction you want to go. The path to downtown Honolulu from Pearl is directly perpendicular to a massive ridgeline. If the Hawaiians have any artillery at all, they've had time to place them on the ridges, which put them completely on the flank of the enemy advance and utterly inaccessible to that enemy.

Of course the Hawaii Division has discipline on their side (in theory) and it's possible they could simply over-awe the Hawaiians. But if that doesn't happen, I give them 48 hours tops before the terrain defeats them.

That is true, however what could help the Americans is the fact that not all of the inhabitants are fanatic about fighting for Hawaii, and that even a minority helping out the Americans could prove to be decisive. More importantly though, I think the purpose of Bagley's attack is not necessarily to bite off Oahu in one big gulp, but to lure the Japanese into a hasty intervention to save their 'Asian brothers'.

That would be Bagley's opportunity then to intercept the fleet with everything he has. The battle on Oahu itself would be secondary to the big naval battle betweeen the US and Japan, and if the US wins the naval battle then its only a matter of time before the Hawaiian rebels are suppressed.

[NHBL]

For a vehicle to have diplomatic status, I think it would have to be involved in diplomatic negotiations with a country--and to the USA, Hawaii isn't a nation, so no diplomats there have any legal protection...

I could be wrong, thought.

[wietze]

Originally Posted by NHBL

For a vehicle to have diplomatic status, I think it would have to be involved in diplomatic negotiations with a country--and to the USA, Hawaii isn't a nation, so no diplomats there have any legal protection...

I could be wrong, thought.

I think you are right with respect to how the americans see it, on the other hand the japanese might think rather different. And even the rest of the world will highly frown on the us shooting down a 'diplomatic' plane. In general even though the plane isn't official, in a case like that its more common to send it home. Downing a plane like that will tell the world that the us has no respect for diplomatic rules/treaties, which will only get the us more loathing.

[KACKO]

Originally Posted by wietze

I think you are right with respect to how the americans see it, on the other hand the japanese might think rather different. And even the rest of the world will highly frown on the us shooting down a 'diplomatic' plane. In general even though the plane isn't official, in a case like that its more common to send it home. Downing a plane like that will tell the world that the us has no respect for diplomatic rules/treaties, which will only get the us more loathing.

Well, depends. As rast wrote it, it seems plane is flying with military markings:

The Japanese Armed Forces – unlike most other contemporary armed forces – had not added an air force as third service, but had retained an army air force and a naval air force. Too unique were the requirements of army and navy to allow the formation of an overarching third service. The army air force was responsible for close air support to the ground forces and air defence of the homeland, the naval air force for close air support to the navy and strategic missions. The L3M was the result of an attempt at strategic bombing. It eventually had not been introduced into service – because the only imaginable targets for such a plane could logically only be found in China... Thus, one had quickly declared the plane as experimental, and only procured a handful for ‘special’ missions.

[wietze]

Originally Posted by KACKO

Well, depends. As rast wrote it, it seems plane is flying with military markings:

can't really find any indication of it in the text, as 'special missions' might well mean painted in civilian livery (like how some of the soviet military planes actually wore aeroflot markings). But aside from that its quite common for diplomatic planes to carry military markings, for example the plane of the us president is the Airforce 1 (=military), same with other countries.

[rast]

The final approach of the L3M is scheduled for the middle of the night. Even if she was marked all over nobody would be able to see it.

[KACKO]

Originally Posted by wietze

(like how some of the soviet military planes actually wore aeroflot markings)

With Soviets I believe it was different story. Planes were funded partially or fully by military but used by Aeroflot. In case of need military would take over. Of course some Aeroflot marked planes were used in Prague 1968.

[Monty Burns]

Originally Posted by wietze

I think you are right with respect to how the americans see it, on the other hand the japanese might think rather different. And even the rest of the world will highly frown on the us shooting down a 'diplomatic' plane. In general even though the plane isn't official, in a case like that its more common to send it home. Downing a plane like that will tell the world that the us has no respect for diplomatic rules/treaties, which will only get the us more loathing.

I still think that the Japanese secretly hope that the US shoot the plane down. They'll claim it to be on a diplomatic/humanitarian/whatever mission and that the US are the aggressor here. They try to make something up for a casus belli.

On the other side, Bagley having free hand in this situation indicates that first the US are willing to defend their claim on Hawaii - which is reasonable - but also that the central command is hardly able to get involved due to domestic problems. Under normal circumstances, such a massive Japanese fleet in Hawaii would be the first priority of the administration and nobody would give a local commander - even such a senior one as Bagley - such power over the proceedings. In any case, neither the US nor Balgey would accept tht plane as "diplomatic".

Now for the rest of the world: Europeans will always believe any atrocities blamed on the US. Australians and New Zealanders will always believe any treachery blamed on the Japanese. Mittelafrikans don't give a damn about what happens as long as they get the chance to shoot Amis. Russia doesn't give a damn as long as Japan goes to war. The rest won't care.