Franco-Prussian War: Inevitable?

[Barbarossa Rotbart]

Your answers are no real answers but a sign of laziness. If you had really researched the answers then you would have come to different conclusions.

[Elfwine]

Originally Posted by Barbarossa Rotbart

Your answers are no real answers but a sign of laziness. If you had really researched the answers then you would have come to different conclusions.

I do not think most people would call saying 9th century events made something over a thousand years later inevitable the result of actual research, but whatever floats your boat.

[Barbarossa Rotbart]

Please answer the questions!!!!
What do you think are the reasons for the French-German Enmity?
What do you think would have happened if Bismarck was NOT appointed minister-president of Prussia in 1862?
And, which German state would have lead the German unification if Prussia is not doing that?
And don't answer with 'depends...'!

[Elfwine]

MarshalBraginsky posted something interesting. Anyone have any thoughts on if that could work?

OTL Prussia, the power OTL in a position to do something about it (as opposed to how Austria's influence in Germany weakened thanks to its defeat at Prussia hands), did not desire that - but how would the smaller states have felt?

[Barbarossa Rotbart]

Typical, you cannot give an answer so you try to divert from them.
therefore I am forced to answer them myself!

1. Why do you think the German-French (Heritary) Enmity did exist (in the 19th century)?

That's really hard to explain. Although it began with the Treaty of Verdun in 843, it is really not the reason. Napoleon (and the end of the HRE) was the first reason. And they remember that before Napoleon there were the Coalition Wars. And in those France conquered the whole Austrian Netherlands.
And they remember that there were other wars in the 18th century in which French forces fought on German soil. And then they remember the Nine Years' War in which the French were ordered to burn down the Palatinate. So the common German could only come to the conclussion that France is the great Enemy.
I'm not very firm on the French side of that matter, but I believe that the French blame the Germans for the Coalition Wars, for the Downfall of Napoleon. And the French feared that a united Germany would replace them as the hegemonial power of Europe.

2. What would have happened if Bismarck had not been appointed to be the next Prussian prime minister?

Remember that in 1861/62 Wilhelm I wanted to abdicate because the Prussian parliament did not approve the budget for his military reforms. In the last minute Bismarck persuaded his king not to abdicate (the document was already signed!) and that he could use a gap in the constitution to get the budget through. So Bismarck became minister president of Prussia (and Wilhelm I stayed King of Prussia).
If Albrecht von Roon did not have called Bismarck, Wilhelm I would have abdicated and his son Friedrich would have been King. But Friedrich was a liberal and would have worked with the parliament. So, many things Bismarck did would not be possible.

3. Which German state would have led the German unification instead of Prussia?

None. Austria was not interested. It was already the hegemonial power in the German Confederation.
And all others were not large and powerful enough to do it.
So, only Prussia could do it.

Could Prussia be content with just the North German Confederation though, while the South German states could say, join Austria-Hungary?

No. Not possible. Prussian Goal in the Austro-Prussian war was to remove Austria's influence in Germany.To allow the Southern states to join Austra would undo this. After 1866 the German Unification was inevitable, because it was the only way to prevent Austria regaining influence in Germany.

[Elfwine]

And the discussion stalls due to Barbarossa Rotbart treating his view as the only valid one.

[Shtudmuffin]

I have yet another question, somewhat related to the topic: What exactly was it that drove the southern German states towards supporting Prussia only 4 years after being at war with them?

[Barbarossa Rotbart]

Originally Posted by Elfwine

And the discussion stalls due to Barbarossa Rotbart treating his view as the only valid one.

No, my opinion is not the only valid one, but I gave explanations, something others never gave. (You know whom I mean!)

[Elfwine]

Originally Posted by Barbarossa Rotbart

No, my opinion is not the only valid one, but I gave explanations, something others never gave. (You know whom I mean!)

Because said others think history is complicated rather than saying how Germans hated Frenchmen to the point war was inevitable because of things like a 9th century treaty?

Saying that it was inevitable because of events in 1870 or maybe even the 1860s is one thing, saying that events from decades and centuries ago made it inevitable is just ridiculous, no matter how often you mention the Treaty of Verdun.

[Barbarossa Rotbart]

Originally Posted by Shtudmuffin

I have yet another question, somewhat related to the topic: What exactly was it that drove the southern German states towards supporting Prussia only 4 years after being at war with them?

In my opinion (Elfwine will see it differently) there are two reasons:
First, the French reaction to the Ems Dispatch made France the aggressor.
Second, Bismarck managed to persuade both Bavaria and Württemberg to join with giving them some special rights.

[CalBear]

Originally Posted by Barbarossa Rotbart

Your answers are no real answers but a sign of laziness. If you had really researched the answers then you would have come to different conclusions.

Don't insult people.

You know better than to do this.

[BlondieBC]

Originally Posted by Shtudmuffin

I have yet another question, somewhat related to the topic: What exactly was it that drove the southern German states towards supporting Prussia only 4 years after being at war with them?

With Prussia, each state had a good bit of say in how things were run. They would have less power under the Hapsburgs, and there were clear benefit of being a part of a strong nation.

[Barbarossa Rotbart]

Originally Posted by Elfwine

Because said others think history is complicated rather than saying how Germans hated Frenchmen to the point war was inevitable because of things like a 9th century treaty?

That's not what I said. I simply stated that it all began at that time, but that really does not mean that this event was the reason for the Enmity in the 19th century.
According to the German Wikipedia-entry following eventy were responsible:
- The Rhine-crisis in 1840 (in which France wanted 32.000 km^2 of German territory an the Rhine.)
- The failure of the German Unification in the Congress of Vienna
- The Napoleonic Wars
- The Coalition Wars

Originally Posted by Elfwine

Saying that it was inevitable because of events in 1870 or maybe even the 1860s is one thing, saying that events from decades and centuries ago made it inevitable is just ridiculous.

And you still misunderstood me. And I've got the feeling that you do not know anything about people. remember that there are still enough people who reduce Germany to the twelve years of Nazi rule, even if that was more than seventy years ago.

[Elfwine]

Originally Posted by Barbarossa Rotbart

That's not what I said. I simply stated that it all began at that time, but that really does not mean that this event was the reason for the Enmity in the 19th century.
According to the German Wikipedia-entry following eventy were responsible:
- The Rhine-crisis in 1840 (in which France wanted 32.000 km^2 of German territory an the Rhine.)
- The failure of the German Unification in the Congress of Vienna
- The Napoleonic Wars
- The Coalition Wars

Quote:
(Poe Faced Killer's comments in blue)

It all lies in nationalism. And because of this for their to be a Germany thats a great power a Franco-Prussian war is yes inevitable.

France was simply too mixed up in german affairs for their unification to occur without some country forcing france out.

Remember for like 1000 years france was the bad boy of europe, the closest thing to a european hegemon in history. And so, as germany was divided into small duchies and principalities in easily dominated all of germany, except for Austria (which is why, yet again I think the 7 weeks war was inevitable.)

old otto wanted to unite all of the german people into one nation, while some of the nations were dominated by the french (although austria and prussia did dominate most of germany by the franco-prussian war) they still needed to kick the french out to truly be independent.

while at the same time, if germany was to be taken seriously it had to defeat a great power to make its name and add prestige;
the franco-prussian war could be avoid, with a POD around 1400, maybe earlier.
The earliest PoD would be a different Treaty of Verdun in 843.
French not involved in the Thirty Years' War could also prevent the French-German Enmity.
Another PoD would be that Louis XIV renounces his Policy of Reunions with which he annxed several German territories while the Empire (and the rest of Europe!) fought against the Turks. he would have taken much more if the Empire had not stopped him in the Nine Years' War.

You are, in so many words, saying that the Treaty of Verdun lead to the Franco-Prussian War being "inevitable" or at least likely.

And responsible for what? Generating German enmity is not the same as causing the war.

And you still misunderstood me. And I've got the feeling that you do not know anything about people. remember that there are still enough people who reduce Germany to the twelve years of Nazi rule, even if that was more than seventy years ago.

The problem is that we're not talking about whether or not some people were hostile to France for these things, we're talking about whether or not the Franco-Prussian war was inevitable.

[Barbarossa Rotbart]

Originally Posted by Elfwine

You are, in so many words, saying that the Treaty of Verdun lead to the Franco-Prussian War being "inevitable" or at least likely.

Not really. I just said earliest PoD. And at that moment I've really forgotten the Rhine Crisis which in OTL was the reason for the French-German Enmity. No Rhine Crisis menas that there will be not German hatred of the French.

Originally Posted by Elfwine

And responsible for what? Generating German enmity is not the same as causing the war.

At that moment this was not the question.

Originally Posted by Elfwine

The problem is that we're not talking about whether or not some people were hostile to France for these things, we're talking about whether or not the Franco-Prussian war was inevitable.

It was inevitable, because France feared that a unificated Germany would contest France's position as the hegemonial power on the continent. Prussia did need the war to get the other German states on his side and being victim of French aggression was very helpful. BTW a victory would make the victor the sole continental hegemonial power.
So in my opinion a Franco-German war was as long inevitable as long France was the sole continental hegemonial power.

[Elfwine]

Originally Posted by Barbarossa Rotbart

It was inevitable, because France feared that a unificated Germany would contest France's position as the hegemonial power on the continent.

So. . . it was inevitable because of France, or because of Germany, or both?

[Barbarossa Rotbart]

See above!

[Xgentis]

How does the treaty of Verdun make the Franco-Prussian war inevitable?
I really can't see how athe division of the Carolingian empire has anything to do with the Franco-Prussian war. With a pod so early their might not even be a France and a Germany at the present day with so many butterfly.

[wolf_brother]

Barbarossa Rotbart, did you just look at the Wikipedia page for French–German enmity and say to yourself; "Aha! Wikipedia starts their chronology with the Treaty of Verdun, therefore Verdun makes the Franco-Prussian War inevitable!"?

[Barbarossa Rotbart]

Originally Posted by Xgentis

How does the treaty of Verdun make the Franco-Prussian war inevitable?
I really can't see how athe division of the Carolingian empire has anything to do with the Franco-Prussian war. With a pod so early their might not even be a France and a Germany at the present day with so many butterfly.

The Treaty of Verdun has only marginally something to do with the Franco-Prussian War. I could give more explanations, but I fear that they give me another warning by CalBear.

Two things make the Franco-Prussian War inevitable:
- France being a hegemonial power, wanting to stay a hegemonial power and fearing that a unificated Germany will replace it.
- Prussia not being a hegemonial power, wanting to be one and knowing that France has something against it.
-> As long as France is a hegemonial power, the Franco-Prussian war was inevitable.