Henry VIII dies in 1536?

[Basileus Giorgios]

Based on my reading through of Mantel's Wolf Hall- what would happen if Henry VIII dies in January 1536, in the jousting tournament that IOTL almost killed him? We have three candidates for the throne: the illegitimate Henry Fitzroy, Duke of Richmond, the Lady Mary (herself recently rendered illegitimate), and the infant Elizabeth Tudor. Both Fitzroy and Mary have the advantage of age, whereas Elizabeth has the power of the Boleyn family behind her. What happens?

[Velasco]

Was Richmond already married to Mary Howard? The Duke of Norfolk's support for either Richmond (son-in-law) or Elizabeth (great-niece) might well prove decisive.

EDIT: Bear in mind that Anne Boleyn was pregnant at the time, so a regency council until she gives birth (hopefully a son) and Mary was under custody/honourable imprisonment.

[Gonzaga]

There was a very interesting discussion about this POD here: http://www.alternatehistory.com/disc...d.php?t=122362

[Basileus Giorgios]

Originally Posted by Gonzaga

There was a very interesting discussion about this POD here: http://www.alternatehistory.com/disc...d.php?t=122362

Thanks for the link

[High Plains Drifter]

Interesting possibilities here.

Anne Boleyn was pregnant. IOTL she had a miscarriage about a week after Henry's jousting accident. What if her miscarriage is butterflied away? Then England needs to wait 9 months to see if she births a boy. In which case, that child becomes the next King. Regency council dominated by Anne Boleyn and the Howards is highly probable. Though childhood death rates of that time might never see him reign on his own. I'd rate this probability at less than 5%.

Mary was the oldest of Henry's children at age 20. She has been disinherited by the 1533 First Succession Act. IOTL she inherited after the death of Edward, not Elizabeth, but some/all of that was thanks to the 1543 Third Succession Act which put her back in the line of succession. Mary would likely become the rallying point for the anti-Howard faction in England. The Howards were not much loved at this point by most of the nobility. No doubt the Howards would recognize the threat Mary represents to their (Elizabeth's) interests. Perhaps they quickly arrange her death, but more likely try to marry her off (quickly) to someone outside of England. I think the anti-Howard faction couldn't organize itself quickly enough, so I'd rate the probability of Mary inheriting at no more than 30%.

Henry Fitzroy was illegitimate, but known to be Henry's acknowledged son. He is 17 years old. IOTL he died in the summer of 1536. Perhaps this gets butterflied. He has no power base and is a bastard. Probability of him becoming the next monarch are slim and none.

Elizabeth wins, with an over 60% probability of becoming the next monarch. Anne Boleyn and the Howards have their hands more on the levers of government than anyone else in England. Mary has been rendered illegitimate by Act of Parliament. There are many forces that don't like the Howard faction, so quite possible some minor rebellions occur in the first couple of years of Elizabeth's reign. Anne Boleyn and the Howards will dominate the Regency. Its possible that over time the anti-Howard nobles will effectively mobilize and push the Howards off any council of regents. But even if that happens, by that time Elizabeth will have been 'Queen' for several years, so odds are they don't want to create waves by bumping her off.

[Emperor Constantine]

Well I had red that during this period there where was talk that Emperor Charles V was going to invade to save his aunt Catherine of Aragon and cousin Mary Tudor. Charles would probably be more likely to invade to depose a, in Catholic eyes, bastard (Elizabeth) and restore the legitimate, Catholic heir, Mary. And furthermore, Anne Boleyn wasn't popular at all with the people or even the nobles. The bulk of the people in England loved Catherine and Mary and blamed Anne for their treatment, so a revolt could very well happen.

[Velasco]

Anne's pregnancy and Catherine's recent death would allow the Boleyns and Howards to seize power in the immediate aftermath; they'd learn of Henry's death and be able to take the reins of power immediately. Mary was a prisoner in the custody of Boleyn relatives, so they're already in possession of her person, preventing anyone from using her as a rallying point for rebellion.

By the time Anne's pregnancy comes to term, the Boleyn faction would have been allowed enough time to secure their hold on power and bring Elizabeth to the throne/put down rebellion/hide Mary without any great difficulty. Who Mary marries would be interesting, maybe they try to marry her to George Boleyn or someone.

[Thande]

I'm thinking civil war myself: no strong candidates, religious differences starting to rear their heads, and the Tudors' usurpation of the throne (and the ensuing rebellions) still within living memory. A climate in which one of the powerful nobles could potentially seize the throne rather than settling for being the regent and eminence grise to Elizabeth or something as they would in a more secure dynasty (and the Dukes of Somerset and Northumberland indeed did in OTL later on to Edward VI).

[Emperor Constantine]

Originally Posted by Thande

I'm thinking civil war myself: no strong candidates, religious differences starting to rear their heads, and the Tudors' usurpation of the throne (and the ensuing rebellions) still within living memory. A climate in which one of the powerful nobles could potentially seize the throne rather than settling for being the regent and eminence grise to Elizabeth or something as they would in a more secure dynasty (and the Dukes of Somerset and Northumberland indeed did in OTL later on to Edward VI).

Well which of the nobles had a claim to the throne? I know Margaret pole and her kids had a good claim but I think most noble lines with royal blood were eliminated during the war of the Roses and Henry VII's reign.

[Velasco]

At this time Reginald Pole was the Emperor's candidate for Mary's hand, but after years abroad it's unlikely he'd be able to stir up popular opinion, especially if a legitimate son of good ol' Harry Tudor is on the way.

[Emperor Constantine]

Originally Posted by Velasco

At this time Reginald Pole was the Emperor's candidate for Mary's hand, but after years abroad it's unlikely he'd be able to stir up popular opinion, especially if a legitimate son of good ol' Harry Tudor is on the way.

In OTL, Henry being unhorsed in the tournament is believed to have caused Anne's miscarriage, so doesn't it stand to reason that her husbands death would also cause a miscarriage? And a lot of people considered Elizabeth illegitimate so would a son be considered legitimate considering his mother would still be Anne Boleyn, the woman who was suppository called a whore at her own coronation.

[V-J]

I'd put money on a Boleyn-dominated regency for Elizabeth, which would be sufficiently unpopular and divided to be swiftly thrown out through a Pilgrimage of Grace-style rebellion in favour of Mary. Elizabeth ends up as TTL's Jane Grey, Mary is Queen.

[Basileus Giorgios]

I really want to do a TL on this, but I doubt I'd follow it through...

[Emperor Constantine]

Say Mary succeeds/wins the throne who will she marry? In 1536 what catholic princes were of age? The idea that Mary could marry James V of Scotland has been thrown around a lot but is there really any chance of a marriage? I can't remember there ever being negotiations about this potential couple.

[Thande]

Originally Posted by Emperor Constantine

Well which of the nobles had a claim to the throne? I know Margaret pole and her kids had a good claim but I think most noble lines with royal blood were eliminated during the war of the Roses and Henry VII's reign.

My point is that the situation is fragile enough that a noble wouldn't need more than a very tenuous claim to the throne a la Henry VII--the lack of any strong candidates (a bastard, a papist woman and a little girl) and the anti-establishment climate due to the religious conflicts means that the throne is potentially there for the taking and a legitimist succession narrative is not necessarily required.

[Gonzaga]

Originally Posted by Emperor Constantine

Say Mary succeeds/wins the throne who will she marry? In 1536 what catholic princes were of age? The idea that Mary could marry James V of Scotland has been thrown around a lot but is there really any chance of a marriage? I can't remember there ever being negotiations about this potential couple.

Well, according to the Spanish State Papers showed in the other thread at that time Charles V was considering his cousin Infante Luís of Portugal to be the husband of Mary.

[Emperor Constantine]

Originally Posted by Thande

My point is that the situation is fragile enough that a noble wouldn't need more than a very tenuous claim to the throne a la Henry VII--the lack of any strong candidates (a bastard, a papist woman and a little girl) and the anti-establishment climate due to the religious conflicts means that the throne is potentially there for the taking and a legitimist succession narrative is not necessarily required.

That is true. For a noble, I'd put my money on the Duke of Norfolk. The Howard family was historically very wealthy and remain catholic threw-out the reformation to the present day. What would the military situation be? I mean how trained was the royal army compared to forces the nobles could raise? England didn't really have a tradition of hiring mercenaries.

[Velasco]

Originally Posted by Emperor Constantine

Say Mary succeeds/wins the throne who will she marry? In 1536 what catholic princes were of age? The idea that Mary could marry James V of Scotland has been thrown around a lot but is there really any chance of a marriage? I can't remember there ever being negotiations about this potential couple.

It was considered a couple of times OTL, but never particularly seriously...things (ie, continental politics) never let it go very far, as both James and Henry were angling for either Imperial or French marriages most of the time.

[Velasco]

Originally Posted by Emperor Constantine

In OTL, Henry being unhorsed in the tournament is believed to have caused Anne's miscarriage, so doesn't it stand to reason that her husbands death would also cause a miscarriage? And a lot of people considered Elizabeth illegitimate so would a son be considered legitimate considering his mother would still be Anne Boleyn, the woman who was suppository called a whore at her own coronation.

Henry agonizing between life and death might be more stressful than him dying immediately and bringing her daughter/unborn son to the throne..? Something like that.

Elizabeth was born while Catherine of Aragon was still alive; the boy would be born after Catherine's death.

[V-J]

Originally Posted by Velasco

Elizabeth was born while Catherine of Aragon was still alive; the boy would be born after Catherine's death.

That's utterly irrelevant if you believe Henry and Anne Boleyn's marriage was illegitimate in the first place, as Mary and Catherine of Aragon's partisans did. Whatever progeny results, they're inevitably bastards by that reading, as Henry's marriage to Anne was bigamous.