Neutral Italy attacks Greece

[Catspoke]

Assuming Italy is smart enough not to declare war on Britain and France in June 1940, but still attacks Greece in October 1940 as in OTL. What happens???

Italy fails just the same likely, but how long does the war go on? would Britain declare war on Italy then, what does Germany do?

[Andreas]

Originally Posted by Catspoke

Assuming Italy is smart enough not to declare war on Britain and France in June 1940, but still attacks Greece in October 1940 as in OTL. What happens???

Italy fails just the same likely, but how long does the war go on? would Britain declare war on Italy then, what does Germany do?

a neutral Italy might change Hitler's plans too...

but even if Hitler gies on plan and Italy stays neytral, Britain won't intervene
...but Yugoslavia might, i.e. Italy is gonna bleed bad in Albania, though I'm not sure how long this war is going to last...

[Xhavnak]

Assuming Germany doesnt feel like helping them then there may be a revolution in Italy after they get defeated by Greece in Albania and driven out ...

[Danth]

Originally Posted by Xhavnak

Assuming Germany doesnt feel like helping them then there may be a revolution in Italy after they get defeated by Greece in Albania and driven out ...

Most likely

[Blackfox5]

If Italy attacks Greece, more than likely Britain will still declare war against Italy. The only way I see Britain not declare war is if Greece asks Britain not to do so (probably because it fears German involvement if done so).

[Garrison]

Surely a larger effect of a neutral Italy is that Britain doesn't get bogged down in the North Africa campaign? They probably won't intervene in Greece because they will be more concerned about the threats in the Far East and the Greeks can handle Italy without any help.

[Xhavnak]

British are likely to at least subtly support Greece - partially to secure Med supply and communication lines and also because of Churchills obsession with the Balkans and Romanian oil.

[lukedalton]

If Italy attack Greece and the UK permit this ( Mussolini will want some assurance by Churchill before attack, probably as part of the 'payment' for remaing neutral), Greece is over. The first attack will go probably as OTL, as Benny don't think much of the Hellenic armed forces so, against his generals advise, will attack with less ground forces necessary...but this time Italy as more resources at her disposal, to send enough reiforcement for a second offensive (among them the ariborne and armored division used in OTL North Africa). And during the first attack i have not take in account, the greater number of airplane at disposal of the Italian air force or the fact that the Italian Navy can totally concentrate on Greece and not worry about fighting the Royal Navy, on the other end is things go badly for Athens Bulgaria can join the italian invasion worsening the Greeck situation, so in the end Italy wins.
Yugoslavia will do nothing, as their situation is a little shaky a war with Italy can create problem to the German supply and rear front for the planned Barbarossa, so Hitler can be tempted to intervene so to put things in order and nobody want this.

[Catspoke]

The best time for Italy to do something would be July - September 40 when Britain, still facing invasion might not be in a position to do much, by Oct 40, Britain has won the Battle of Britain and can afford to take a hard line against this invasion if it wants.

But OTL this invasion was prompted at least partially over jealousy over the German move into Rommania in Oct 40. So likely it will be in Oct 40 here just the same with the same lack of prep and poor weather soon.

You would think here the Italian Navy would at least make a try at the Ionian islands like Corfu since unlike OTL their Navy would be free to do whatever.

One would think a complete blockade of Greece or bombing of Athens etc. would really annoy Britain who might deal with Italy going after limted territorial objectives.

[juanml82]

But by declaring war on Italy, Churchill is opening a new theater he doesn't need and firmly throwing Italy in Germany' side. A belligerent Italy means the British still need to commit forces to the Mediterranean, but still frees forces to go to other places. The Far East? An invasion of Norway without American support (as the USA isn't yet in war)?

[MarshalBraginsky]

Wouldn't Yugoslavia be swinging towards the Axis bloc by the time Mussolini plans to attack Greece? Prince Paul or rather, Milan Nedic wanted to gain access to Salonika if Yugoslavia had joined the Axis powers.

[Catspoke]

Originally Posted by juanml82

But by declaring war on Italy, Churchill is opening a new theater he doesn't need and firmly throwing Italy in Germany' side. A belligerent Italy means the British still need to commit forces to the Mediterranean, but still frees forces to go to other places. The Far East? An invasion of Norway without American support (as the USA isn't yet in war)?

All that is true. Of course whatever happens in Greece (proximity to Suez canal etc..) is much more important to Britain's strategic interests than whatever happens in Poland and they went to war over that.

If I was Britain I would want to find out where Italy is going to stop and just accept it if Italy only wants Eiprus and the Ionian islands, but I wouldn't accept Italians in Crete or Athens or such places and I wouldn't accept the Italians messing with British shipping going to and from Greece.

When the Greeks start winning, at least initially, there will be a lot of public opinion wanting to support Greece, the USA might give Lend Lease, volunteers from various contries showing up etc. Britain's leadership will really have to bite their lip and curb Churchill's worst instincts to keep out of it.

[Catspoke]

Originally Posted by MarshalBraginsky

Wouldn't Yugoslavia be swinging towards the Axis bloc by the time Mussolini plans to attack Greece? Prince Paul or rather, Milan Nedic wanted to gain access to Salonika if Yugoslavia had joined the Axis powers.

Probably depends on Germany's reaction. If Germany is disintrested in what happens to Italy here, I can't see Yougslavia picking on Greece. I can see Yougoslavia however worried about what a sucessfully Italy here might want in Dalmatia.

Yougoslavia if they wanted to pick on somebody should just fall on the backs of the Italians in Albania, hope the Italian government is overthrown and maybe they can get something out of a negotiated peace.

[Michele]

This has been recently discussed in another forum.

The objection to Italy applying more strength to Greece is the usual: logistics. The Albanian infrastructure is abysmal (small ports, no rail, no roads).

The objection to Britain remaining neutral is that Britain had issued a guarantee to Greece a month later than its guarantee to Poland. By the fall of 1940, Britain had already been seen as unable to do much for her allies (Poland, France), and could be construed as clumsily dragging neutrals into the war without being able to help them either. If the Greeks ask for help, the British can't ignore that.

OTOH, it's possible that, also by concert with the British, the Greeks initially try to handle the issue alone exactly for the same reason as in OTL: preventing German involvement. The British will of course send arms, maybe more so than in OTL given that they aren't fighting in the African theatre.

Naturally, the belligerent Italian governor of the Dodecanese will react predictably: Italian submarines will begin hunting British cargo ships, without a DoW between Italy and Britain. They might be less successful than with Soviet ships during the Spanish Civil War, but something they'll get; conversely, the British will convoy with escorts, and they may soon in turn sink an Italian sub, or worse damage it and force it to emerge for the world to see.
Either side (Italy or Britain), or both, will end considering this enough of a casus belli.

It certainly isn't in the British interest to do this, but consider how in OTL Churchill was willing to damage the ongoing operations against Italy in Africa in order not to abandon Greece.