Why no love for Japan?

[Lord_Thrawn]

I have not done a 1920's Japanese timeline since I lack the time for proper research (i.e., anything above Wiki). I think the latest POD from militarism would be the 1936(?) assassination of the Prime Minister, or the 1937 invasion into China. After that, it would IMO take a Night of the Long Knives or civil unrest/war to stop it. Although, I have always wanted to see a timeline where Japan sides with the UK in 1940, just to have the Yamato vs Tirpitz, or Zeroes over Crete... I might do one on the ASB forum, the standards are lower there!

[TxCoatl1970]

POD's for a less belligerent Japan

• Russo-Japanese War turns into Siberian slugout that Japan slowly and inexorably finds itself having to negotiate a peace. Army has to modernize and get more behind the idea of maneuver warfare. As a bonus, Koreans, Taiwanese and Manchurians are recruited to IJA and after distinguishing themselves in the meatgrinder allowed to become officers. IJN doesn't get the OTL smashing victory of Tsushima Strait, instead, Russians manage to sink several IJN capital ships and push through to Vladivostok.
• Taisho democracy carries past Tokyo earthquake of 1927 due to civil planning, well-drilled coordinated public response, and faith in civilian government to capably deal with the Katrina-on-steroids Japanese natural disaster of the 20th century that severely undermined Japanese confidence in the Diet and its ability to govern.
• Japanese Army reforms after Russo-Japanese war allow Japanese Expeditionary Force in France to distinguish itself in European theater of WWI.
• After neutralizing German Pacific colonies and naval threats in 1914, Japan authorizes 400,000 strong Japanese expeditionary force to reach European theater by February 1915 and keeps sending 250,000 more troops each year. Japanese casualties of 300,000 wounded and 118,000 dead from 1915-1918 grant the IJA eternal gratitiude of poilus and Tommies alike in stopping several German offensives dead in their tracks. A German cruiser-destroyer squadron with a dozen U-boats wreaks havoc on SE Asian merchant traffic menacing Singapore, HK, and Australia before Anglo-Japanese task force runs them down to the relief of all in SE Asia even the French.
• Fuller Japanese participation in WWI in a theater the French and British cared about gains it much more recognition by Allies and thus no snubs at the Versailles Peace Conference. Japan starts off the League of nations as a member in good standing playing a key role in Allied victory against Germany.
• Japanese economy gets a major boost as it helped feed, equip, and field a mechanized army and trade extensively with other Allied and neutral nations, sparking the post-WWII economic boom 40 years earlier.
• This isn't without its problems as the internal Japanese market could badly overheat. YMMV whether Taiwan, Korea and Manchuria industrialize as well or just provide a huge population of migrant workers in Japanese factories. This could be a catalyst for major labor strife in 1910's and 1920's. Socialists could be organizing migrant worker rights or agitating vigorously for them to be sent back home b/c they're depressing wages for local workers. Best outcome IMO is a more inclusive Japanese society that encourages immigration and acculturation of immigrants to Japanese society. What they do about the burakumin is another angle.
• Exactly whom's responsible and how these miracles come about I leave to the authors of the board. There's so many details about personalities, agendas, and real figures of what Japan could do from say 1907 to 1929 that could make its own Wirtschaftswunder happen.
• A more liberal, democratic Japan could be a catalyst for major social change in China. As Japan industrializes, lots of Chinese workers and exchange students could absorb the modern engineering and management techniques from Japanese firms and apply them in their own firms later. Having a working model of a quasi-Confucian society applying democratic values nearby could incubate a KMT that has a much sounder political and economic basis.
• The knock-on effects of a more liberal Japan much more heavily involved in WWI also affect Russia as well. Could another JEF be fighting with the Imperial Russian Army to salvage the Eastern Front? Could Japanese arms and supplies have ameliorated some of the problems of the Russian Army and given the Russians a feeling they weren't taking on the A-H Empire and Germans all by their lonesome that led to the collapse of their morale IOTL?

[raharris1973]

...Consider how little potential folks thought my colonized Japan challenge had:

http://www.alternatehistory.com/disc...d.php?t=207616

In nearly all Japan threads, the country is unified and sovereign, more than we can say for many European countries.

Consider alternate ways things could have gone from the beginning - a Japan in which each island is a separate state perpetually, or even further subdivided. A Japan divided along national and ethnic lines, perhaps with Kyushu feeling like Ireland to Honshu's England?

Given that they almost never keep their freedom and unity, why don't we ask, "why no love for Poland?" "why no love for Ireland?" or "why no love for Korea?"

[raharris1973]

..another facet of that is that Japanese participation in the western front, regardless of how much it strengthens ties with the west (Italy and Russia were no closer to the west for second round, for example), is that it could really begin to change grassroots attitudes towards military glory.

On the other hand, the Japanese Army would also have more of an institutional memory of what it takes to survive and prevail in battle against first class opponents, which is likely to increase their appreciation of technology, firepower, logistics and a technical base. Whatever forces they have later will probably be better in those areas, but they may also be less reckless, understanding how far behind the Europeans they are.

[Badshah]

Originally Posted by raharris1973

...Consider how little potential folks thought my colonized Japan challenge had:

http://www.alternatehistory.com/disc...d.php?t=207616

In nearly all Japan threads, the country is unified and sovereign, more than we can say for many European countries.

Consider alternate ways things could have gone from the beginning - a Japan in which each island is a separate state perpetually, or even further subdivided. A Japan divided along national and ethnic lines, perhaps with Kyushu feeling like Ireland to Honshu's England?

Given that they almost never keep their freedom and unity, why don't we ask, "why no love for Poland?" "why no love for Ireland?" or "why no love for Korea?"

That's mostly because people don't often enough care about Japan to ensure a screw to happen.

[Johnrankins]

Originally Posted by Kooluk Swordsman

In general, most of the AH users know more about Europe than Asia.

Most of those users also know more about Germany {Nazi or otherwise} than Japan, which makes it easier to write about. As the saying goes, write what you know.

I think this is the #1 reason. There are more Europeans and Americans on this board than Asians so they know far more about Nazi Germany than Imperial Japan.

[FDW]

Originally Posted by raharris1973

In nearly all Japan threads, the country is unified and sovereign, more than we can say for many European countries.

Consider alternate ways things could have gone from the beginning - a Japan in which each island is a separate state perpetually, or even further subdivided. A Japan divided along national and ethnic lines, perhaps with Kyushu feeling like Ireland to Honshu's England?

The problem with dividing Japan is, like a number of other places, the Geography lends itself to unification.

[sonofaww2navyvet]

we should have executed hirohito when we executed tojo after convicting him of war crimes.should have slaughtered 90% of the japanese military too,they sure as hell deserved it!

[CalBear]

Originally Posted by sonofaww2navyvet

we should have executed hirohito when we executed tojo after convicting him of war crimes.should have slaughtered 90% of the japanese military too,they sure as hell deserved it!

This could, probably should, be a Ban. Nevertheless, I will go with the kick since your other posts so far are not all loony tunes.

Genocide, or collective punishment, is not an acceptable stance hereabouts.

When you come back keep that in mind.

EDIT: This has been upgraded to a Ban at the member's request.

[Laplace's Demon]

What I like is that if you have a Russo-Japanese War defeat or another similar defeat discrediting the proto-militarists, then you can either succeed a not butterflied away Taisho democracy with (or replace it with, if it is butterflied away) another system; and Japan's pre-WWII political structure certainly provides some interesting opportunities.

Because without militarism but with the global economic depression discrediting the Washington System, you could see the zaibatsus that sponsored the main political parties dropping the pretense of elections, or a return to the genro system of the Emperor selecting retired/apolitical politicians and officials to form a government.

Japanese Prussian Constitutionalism, with the Diet still being as democratic as it was in the Taisho OTL, but the government still consisting of Imperially selected genro instead of the leader of the largest party in parliament becoming PM and getting to select a government from the Members of the Diet of his party. That might serve a route through which the Showa Emperor could vent his autocratic designs other than becoming the cats pawn of Imperial Rule Association fascists. And without the success and dominance of the militarists, you wouldn't have the commanders afield starting wars without the permission of the central government.

[B_Munro]

Originally Posted by trollhole

That's mostly because people don't often enough care about Japan to ensure a screw to happen.

...they care enough about it to try to wank it fairly often. Alas, it's the Unreconstructed Crazy Bushido Japan that usually gets wanked.

Bruce

[Admiral Matt]

Quite an educational thread.

It's not been very successful at answering Faeelin's question, but it certainly has done a fair job of highlighting the fact that he has a point. We really do tend to think that way.

Nor is it particularly well linked to this particular site. Alternate History as a genre has fairly frequent recourse to this exact peculiarity: just between Stirling and Turtledove we have three novel settings featuring modern Japans that are both absurdly successful in their expansionism and yet somehow still extremely expansionistic. And every one assumes this is the result despite massive divergences. This is the case even in scenarios that ought to be totally unrecognizable - What If a comet strikes the northern hemisphere in the Victorian era? Japanese Militarist China.

[Ziomatrix]

Originally Posted by Strategos' Risk

Here is a lot of words about the rise of militarism in Japan.



And more in this chapter.

There is always an issue with presenting a single social group, even if it is a key one, as systematic of an entire society. Just as you posted an article on how Imperial Japan was militarist I can display art from the 1920s on how a majority of Japan was not exactly the granddaddy of North Korea's Juche; with styles and social norms much aligned with most democratic nations of the time.

What ought to be done is figure out a time when most of those young officers brought up hook line and sinker into the ideology you stated assumed popular support and extended their rule from Manchuria and Korea to the home islands taking the rest of Japanese society along with them. Some people, such as an author within an article of Time Magazine that slipped my mind, stated that their popularity surged after the Great Kanto Earthquake and the military along with police swung into high gear persecuting any minorities of foreign nationality. This atmosphere created a surge of xenophobia stemming from certain people claiming it was divine punishment for accepting too many foreign customs. Two other major earthquakes in 1933 and 1935 further entrenched military rule on the home islands.

[raharris1973]

The problem with dividing Japan is, like a number of other places, the Geography lends itself to unification.

geography separates Japan into 4 main islands though.

Is there really something about Japanese geography that is more conducive to unification than thr geography of great Britain? Yet Britain has English, Scots, Welsh and Cornish ethnicities, and Scotland was only unified with England in 1707.

Historically, Japanese have been a single ethnicity since BCE times, and formally a single state also. It used to not extend to northern Honshu or Hokkaido until modern times, but when it did extend north, it steamrolled the Ainu people with a totality the english never accomplished in Wales or Scotland or Ireland.

Is this geographical destiny or historical accident?

[BlondieBC]

Originally Posted by raharris1973

geography separates Japan into 4 main islands though.

Is there really something about Japanese geography that is more conducive to unification than thr geography of great Britain? Yet Britain has English, Scots, Welsh and Cornish ethnicities, and Scotland was only unified with England in 1707.

Historically, Japanese have been a single ethnicity since BCE times, and formally a single state also. It used to not extend to northern Honshu or Hokkaido until modern times, but when it did extend north, it steamrolled the Ainu people with a totality the english never accomplished in Wales or Scotland or Ireland.

Is this geographical destiny or historical accident?

Isn't 90% of Japan population in either the Osaka basin or Tokyo Basin?

A dual system of power often will lead to one side winning.

[I, Guangxu]

It's been quite a while since I've segued into one of these discussions, but based on what I've seen so far I'll throw a couple things out there.

There's been a good deal of discussion regarding the roots and evolution of militarism in Japan, but less discussion of the roots and evolution of democratic institutions. By and large, Japan's history from the Meiji Restoration to the Mukden Incident was oriented towards autocracy in one form or another with their democratic shift in the 1920's being rather exceptional. It bears considering what factors contributed to this deviation from an otherwise consistently militaristic course.

The environment from which Taisho democracy sprung was created by the convergence of three main influences. The Genro oligarchs which had dominated elite society since the later nineteenth century were reaching the age where they were either retiring from public life or just dying off. This also conveniently coincided with the death of Meiji emperor and the succession of the Taisho emperor. The Meiji emperor had been fairly marginalized politically by the Genro but his son was even less inclined to flex his imperial muscle. Some attribute this to persistent mental illness, but regardless of your interpretation of his behavior the Taisho emperor was not a very strong personality and had little interest in governance. This allowed for an unprecedented power vacuum into which the ambitious and opportunistic were suddenly allowed access. The character of these new leaders was shaped by the broader era in which they were living. These were the years just following World War I, and the seeming vindication of self-determination and popular will this implied was still impacting the ideology of the intelligentsia. Japan had sided with Great Britain over Germany in the war at least partly through opportunism, but also because Japan wanted to cultivate the image of being a responsible and progressive world power. Sincere or no, Japan's new democrats took the idea to heart. Civil society was the buzzword of the era, with political associations of every shape and size popping up like mushrooms in most of the Western world, and Japan followed suit.

You can have too much of a good thing though. This sudden massive proliferation of different activist groups hindered efforts at coalition building and decisive policy making. Moreover, the intelligentsia of the military officer corps was also politicizing; gaining an awareness of its own ideology and agency. The notion that Japan should act as a counter-balance against Western imperialism in Asia and even liberator of exploited colonies had already existed, and honestly began in sincerity. This train of thought converged though with another notion rapidly becoming dogma amongst Japan's military thinkers. In the wake of the global economic collapse entering the 30's it was believed that Japan had erred in over-reliance on foreign trade to sustain itself. In this view, Japan had to secure its own resources to ensure its survival. The most direct method of achieving this was the tried and true model of a Western-style colonial empire, which dovetailed well with Japan's earlier expansions and conveniently aligned with lip service to Asian liberation ideology. In this the idea of the Co-Prosperity Sphere was formed.

On the domestic front, the inefficient if well-meaning Taisho democrats had taken the brunt of popular backlash for Japan's economic woes in the new decade. Confidence in the emperor was not very high at the time either. To this end, military-inspired propaganda began agitating for a so-called "Showa Restoration," which would install a new emperor enjoying the confidence of both the people and the military. This was ultimately successful, and while the Showa emperor was not significantly more willful than this predecessor he served as an excellent symbol for change and was at least nominally sympathetic towards the military establishment. This was useful considering that the constitution at the time, written in the Meiji era, placed the military accountable only to the emperor, rather than to any civilian authority. The commander of the armed forces and the Prime Minister of the Diet were effectively of equal political clout and strength and the government really had no directive authority over the army. The IJA initiated their invasion of Manchuria without the Diet even knowing about it until it was over. Under the constitution the military didn't need to consult with or explain themselves to anyone. Even the emperor tended to approve the army's policies after they'd already been executed.

To avert this you really need to effect a change in Japan's political culture. The military's agency must be reduced, either collectively through the constitution as written or individually through the political awakening of the officer corps. Both are problematic.

[FDW]

Originally Posted by raharris1973

geography separates Japan into 4 main islands though.

Is there really something about Japanese geography that is more conducive to unification than thr geography of great Britain? Yet Britain has English, Scots, Welsh and Cornish ethnicities, and Scotland was only unified with England in 1707.

Historically, Japanese have been a single ethnicity since BCE times, and formally a single state also. It used to not extend to northern Honshu or Hokkaido until modern times, but when it did extend north, it steamrolled the Ainu people with a totality the english never accomplished in Wales or Scotland or Ireland.

Is this geographical destiny or historical accident?

It's not so much the islands themselves, but the way the islands geography enables easy coastal communication, and also the fact that the Osaka basin in which the Japanese state established itself happened to right in the middle of country at the time, enabling to exercise power to the East and West.

As for Northern Honshu, that was more or less completely settled by about 1100 AD or so, it was only Hokkaido that was settled in modern times (though it could've been settled earlier had the Japanese state been interested in doing so).

In regards to the Ainu, the relevant ideologies of the time would've meant that they would've been at minimum partly assimilated, and doing that is more likely if you can keep Japan divided. I should note that I find a completely independent and pure Ainu state in Eastern Japan to be somewhat implausible (unless you're willing to do a POD before the Yayoi period), but a mixed Yamato/Ainu state to be doable (MKN did one with a POD of 720 AD).