The Whale has Wings

[StevoJH]

Don't forget the American task force facing the second pair of Japanese carriers. How many carriers can the Japanese lose this week?

And what loses will the Imperial and US Forces take during the battles?

[stevep]

Originally Posted by StevoJH

Don't forget the American task force facing the second pair of Japanese carriers. How many carriers can the Japanese lose this week?

I haven't. In theory up to 4 although that would be unlucky, even given how desperate they are. If the IJN suddenly find themselves with only one, damaged CV then alarm bells will start ringing big time. At which point probably the gunnery admirals will step in. 'Those new fangled carriers were never more than a flash in the pan, we'll show you how to do it." They might run out of oil and capital ships about the same time.

And what loses will the Imperial and US Forces take during the battles?

To be blunt the allies can afford the losses as long as not wildly disproportionate. Although it would be preferable to minimise them. With the British, since they have 2-1 odds, or 3-1 counting the CVLs, their good protection and by this time fairly developed damaged control procedures and the Japanese doesn't know what their running into it could well be nil.

In terms of the eastern battle, if one develops, then just about anything can happen. The USN has gained some valuable experience and should be fully out of peace-time mindset while the Japanese have seen some wear and tear. However carrier battles, especially with pretty much equal forces are dicey, ask the IJN about OTL Midway. [Can't remember if the additional USN carrier means they have three available or because of the planned Dolittle operation and refits they might be down to two].

Steve

[Astrodragon]

Originally Posted by stevep

If the IJN suddenly find themselves with only one, damaged CV then alarm bells will start ringing big time. At which point probably the gunnery admirals will step in. 'Those new fangled carriers were never more than a flash in the pan, we'll show you how to do it." They might run out of oil and capital ships about the same time.

You're reading my mail again, aren't you....

[stevep]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

You're reading my mail again, aren't you....

Astrodragon

Only the ones about the schoolgirls, honest gov.

Seriously, the Japanese don't have enough carriers to take on both Britain and America, even before ongoing allied construction or any Japanese losses. Hence, rather than admit they were wrong to go to war they will turn towards the more conservative elements and send the world's largest submarines [sorry battleships] and their older brethren into play. This will be strengthened as their carrier force is reduced further, as seem very likely shortly.

Steve

[Obfuscated]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

You're reading my mail again, aren't you....

Nonsense. The IJA shall carry the day. Her superior tanks shall sweep the pot bellied allies aside and...

What is it you say ? Man portable anti-tank cannons ? For every soldier ? Called Colt 1911 ?

Er....

[Garrison]

Originally Posted by stevep

Astrodragon

Only the ones about the schoolgirls, honest gov.

Seriously, the Japanese don't have enough carriers to take on both Britain and America, even before ongoing allied construction or any Japanese losses. Hence, rather than admit they were wrong to go to war they will turn towards the more conservative elements and send the world's largest submarines [sorry battleships] and their older brethren into play. This will be strengthened as their carrier force is reduced further, as seem very likely shortly.

Steve

I think that's spot on.I just started reading 'The Battle of Midway' by Craig Symonds and it gives some interesting background to IJN decision making. I suspect the Battleship admirals will indeed simply say 'I told you so' and insist that the answer is to charge straight in with guns blazing and torpedoes firing.
The RN/USN will be blown out of the water and cowed by the fighting spirit of IJN.

[usertron2020]

I've said this before, but I REALLY don't think the Americans will send a three CV force for the Tokyo Raid. Even the Hornet had her own air wing below decks for operations in case of emergency.

[Hyperion]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

I assume no-one remembers Somerville has a second TF south of Java...?

Depending on their exact location, turn them loose on the convoy bound for Bali.

[Garrison]

Originally Posted by usertron2020

I've said this before, but I REALLY don't think the Americans will send a three CV force for the Tokyo Raid. Even the Hornet had her own air wing below decks for operations in case of emergency.

Just as well they stayed there, based on their performance at Midway they would probably have wandered away never to be seen again...

It probably doesn't matter how many carriers are assigned to the Doolittle raid; it's really just going to be a psychological coup on top of what is shaping up to be a series of body blows to Japanese plans.

[Hyperion]

Originally Posted by Garrison

Just as well they stayed there, based on their performance at Midway they would probably have wandered away never to be seen again...

It probably doesn't matter how many carriers are assigned to the Doolittle raid; it's really just going to be a psychological coup on top of what is shaping up to be a series of body blows to Japanese plans.

The only good thing ITTL is that Nimitz now has seven carriers to call on, plus escorts and likely a few battleships.

If Hornet and Enterprise go on their adventure, that would still leave Nimitz with five carriers and change if something happens.

[Wolf Tengu]

I know this has been covered here a million billion zillion times, but i'm really interested in the post war effects.

Because every battle won more efficiently is more money saved which can be invested leading to more effects, especially less bancrupcy (though Britain is still going to be sort of money-less, even with changes) and (although history might already have changed) different performance in a couple of those smaller things post war.

This is the kind of thing I'd like to see some sort of follow up to (which again, I think has been said). Or maybe someone would choose to ISOT this timeline's fleet to somewhere else.

I... can't remember what I was going to say on-topic. I'll go back and then say something more relevant.

[usertron2020]

Originally Posted by Garrison

Just as well they stayed there, based on their performance at Midway they would probably have wandered away never to be seen again...

Be nice. You really don't want to start bringing up OTL American early war naval air performance. You just might force me to be mean and start bringing up details of OTL FAA early war naval air performance.

It's true that empty fuel tanks splashed more aircraft than the enemy at Midway, but it wasn't the fault of the pilots

It wasn't pilot navigation that screwed things up at Midway. It was the incompetence of Halsey's (inherited by Spruance) air operations staff in determining where the aerial strike force should target to hit Nagumo. The PBY search aircraft could give approximate locations (when they weren't dodging Zeroes or being forced to return for refueling), but the staff officers under Spruance were a train wreck in determining where Nagumo would be once the strike force arrived over target.

Fletcher's staff, at least, were mostly spot on in finding Nagumo, but in their case (and Spruance's squadrons as well) coordination of squadron strikes were also a train wreck. Ironically, it was individual initiative shown by squadron commanders (1) ignoring the estimates of staff officers that led to their being more successful at finding the enemy.

It probably doesn't matter how many carriers are assigned to the Doolittle raid; it's really just going to be a psychological coup on top of what is shaping up to be a series of body blows to Japanese plans.(2)

Exactly. Additional carriers are pointless since they will never be used anyway. Indeed, though I now understand the difficulty that would have been had by going so, having Enterprise at Coral Sea COULD have allowed the loss of the Shokaku outright (and maybe even prevented serious damage to the Yorktown), as opposed to her simply being badly damaged.

But I can't see Nimitz allowing it. After all, if the raid had gone off as planned, Halsey's task force would have come well within range of Japan itself, and the risk of enemy attack would have been far greater. To have NOT sent the Enterprise would have meant telling Doolittle that the raid was a planned suicide run from the beginning.

1) Only the initiative shown by the Hornet's fighter and dive bomber squadrons backfired, as when they found only empty ocean, they turned southeast to Midway to refuel.

2) I am very anxious to see how Astrodragon balances the hysteria of the Japanese over the Doolittle Raid ITTL compared to OTL.

OTL, the Imperial Army General Staff was fighting against Yamamoto's Combined Fleet plan of Operation MI. Instead, they wanted continued operations against China, completion of operations against Burma, or even a renewed attempt against the USSR should they start to collapse during the 1942 German offensive.

Meanwhile the Imperial Navy General Staff had its own plans. They supported Yamamoto's plans, but only after their own operations were completed. They were pushing for the completion of the conquest of New Guinea (Port Morseby), and the occupation of the Solomons. This would then be followed by taking the (undefended) New Hebrides, then Fiji, Samoa, and finally New Caledonia. Thereby severing the supply lines and LOCs between America and Australia and New Zealand. Mind, everything on this hit list except Port Moresby and the Solomons were beyond Japanese land-based air range! The Imperial Japanese could certainly dream big.

Post-Doolittle, senior IJA officers suddenly starting talking like IJN War Planners, and speaking of great strategic sweeps in the Pacific. Beyond New Guinea, even the Naval General Staff had to put everything on the back burner except for the Coral Sea Campaign. The simply political truth was, neither the army nor the navy could face Hirohito without MI.

But how Astrodragon should choose to balance out these three competing political forces (IJA, IJN, Combined Fleet) in Imperial Japan IDNK.

[usertron2020]

Originally Posted by Hyperion

The only good thing ITTL is that Nimitz now has seven carriers to call on, plus escorts and likely a few battleships.

If Hornet and Enterprise go on their adventure, that would still leave Nimitz with five carriers and change if something happens.

Hyperion, there are no battleships available to the USN save for the two North Carolina class (1) which, with the destruction of any serious ETO surface naval threats, will be available to the Pacific immediately (that is, NOW). The old WWI BBs are still without escort and will be until 1943. They are simply too slow to be of any use except for shore bombardment, as OTL.

1) Unless they were the ships you were referring to?

[usertron2020]

Originally Posted by Wolf Tengu

I know this has been covered here a million billion zillion times, but i'm really interested in the post war effects.

Because every battle won more efficiently is more money saved which can be invested leading to more effects, especially less bancrupcy (though Britain is still going to be sort of money-less, even with changes) and (although history might already have changed) different performance in a couple of those smaller things post war.

Yeah, there ARE people (not this OP) on this website who actually believe the UK will have little difficulty with emerging from all this with the Empire if not intact politically, at least in reasonable shape economically, especially in terms of trade. All this, despite Britain fighting TWO World Wars in the space of a single generation.

[ModernKiwi]

Meh, a Britain emerging with more money will just spend more money on the new social services that the public are clamouring for.

Sometimes being able to blame "the evil capitalist yankees" for not loaning us even more money is a good thing.

[usertron2020]

Originally Posted by ModernKiwi

Meh, a Britain emerging with more money will just spend more money on the new social services that the public are clamouring for.

Sometimes being able to blame "the evil capitalist yankees" for not loaning us even more money is a good thing.

Agreed. My point was that there are wankers out there who wouldn't have been happy unless Lend Lease had continued until the Year 2000! The irony is that these tend to be the same people bitching about America's still unpaid Stamp Taxes from 1763...

[StevoJH]

While the UK is hardly going to be in brilliant position, you also cannot underestimate the benefits its had in this TL.

Africa:
I seem to recall Egypt (and Britains Middle Eastern and African Holdings) was never under serious threat. How many tanks, aircraft, men and ships lost OTL in the Western Desert and Mediterranean Campaigns haven't been lost here?

How much money has this saved? How many more people are available to work in British factories? How has British prestige among the colonial residents and natives been impacted?

The Italian Navy has been destroyed as a serious threat and they have been relegated to a continental power.

Atlantic:
With lower losses to U-Boats, less emphasis has to be put into Merchant Ship construction, or the ships built will be of a higher quality and size, how will this affect the size and composition of the British Merchant Navy post WW2, especially in comparison to the US MN.

Asia:
With Japan being Held in Malaya and Burma, will those countries stay as British Colonies longer than in OTL? Will Singapore and Hong Kong be integrated into the UK itself postwar?

Trade:
With the Med cleared and its Asian Holdings relatively secure, the UK can conduct two way trade with the US and other nations around the world, it is not sending ships back empty.

Oh, they wont be in a brilliant position, but *parts* of the empire may retain closer ties to the UK than they currently do.

[usertron2020]

StevoJH

Seconded. But much of that war potential not lost ITTL could be expended in operations to end the ETO war a little sooner as well as fighting in Pacific and Asian campaigns never fought in WWII. So, better off, yes. But much of what stays in the tank will be burned off fighting offensively in victorious battles, rather than defensively in lost battles. Even winning campaigns are expensive.

[abc123]

Originally Posted by ModernKiwi

Meh, a Britain emerging with more money will just spend more money on the new social services that the public are clamouring for.

Sometimes being able to blame "the evil capitalist yankees" for not loaning us even more money is a good thing.

Seconded.

[trekchu]

Originally Posted by usertron2020

StevoJH

Seconded. But much of that war potential not lost ITTL could be expended in operations to end the ETO war a little sooner as well as fighting in Pacific and Asian campaigns never fought in WWII. So, better off, yes. But much of what stays in the tank will be burned off fighting offensively in victorious battles, rather than defensively in lost battles. Even winning campaigns are expensive.

I see the most interesting butterflies in de-colonization During the 60s and 70s. With Britain in a better shape they can tell the Americans to take a hike when they demand de-col yesterday, and it can be managed so that it's more than training the intelligence services and then giving the nearest native leader the keys to the house. (simplified, yes, but I think you fine people get what I mean.)