No Japan in WW-II

[lounge60]

We assume that for some reason the history of Japan in early XX century is different that in OTL.
Japan not invade China,and not become a militaristic/para-fascist nation,and maintains very good relations with USA and British Empire.
So december 7 1941 is a day like another in Pearl Harbour.
We assume also that in some day of 1942 United States go to war aganist nazist Germany and fascist Italy.
Without pacific front how change the the war?
Is more short?
Allied can win in 1944?

[The Oncoming Storm]

No Pacific Theatre probably shortens the European by a few months as the Allies, in particular the USSR have much more resources to throw at Germany. The big changes come after the War, Britain doesn't suffer the humiliation of Singapore and this means a later start to decolonisation, Indochina never falls either so the Vietnam War may never happen. Without the Japanese threat Chiang probably beats the Communists at some point so the PRC never exists and therefore no Korean War.

[d32123]

I wonder what effects a united pro-U.S. Germany would have on the Cold War ITTL?

[Catspoke]

So the British have no worries about the Japanese in 1941 and beyond. They would be able to bring in extra naval forces and a division or two to the med. Means no disaster at Gazala in 1942 at least.

With a peaceful Japan would the Soviets be able to strip bare the East to reinforce Europe? Probably.

Hitler figured that Japan as overt ally outweighed the USA as a passive one, here there would be no such equation and Hitler would avoid provocations. U.S.A would increase lend lease aid to Soviets and Britain but without any provocations would stay out of war, Britain would be able to win in the desert in 1942 just the same, and the Soviets would be able to stop the German invasion just the same and counter attack so there would be no security reason for the Americans to have to enter the war because Germany is contained.

but if the U.S.A was in the game by early 42 for some reason with its full strength deployed in Europe, yes the Allies would win in late 1944. The 1943 med advance would go quicker and the June 1944 invasion would be larger.

[lounge60]

Originally Posted by Catspoke

So the British have no worries about the Japanese in 1941 and beyond. They would be able to bring in extra naval forces and a division or two to the med. Means no disaster at Gazala in 1942 at least.

With a peaceful Japan would the Soviets be able to strip bare the East to reinforce Europe? Probably.

Hitler figured that Japan as overt ally outweighed the USA as a passive one, here there would be no such equation and Hitler would avoid provocations. U.S.A would increase lend lease aid to Soviets and Britain but without any provocations would stay out of war, Britain would be able to win in the desert in 1942 just the same, and the Soviets would be able to stop the German invasion just the same and counter attack so there would be no security reason for the Americans to have to enter the war because Germany is contained.

but if the U.S.A was in the game by early 42 for some reason with its full strength deployed in Europe, yes the Allies would win in late 1944. The 1943 med advance would go quicker and the June 1944 invasion would be larger.

If in 1943 Hitler is kill by Army conspirators at some point,and Mussolini is sent to home by the King,is possible a armistice (not unconditional surrender) with Germany and Italy?

[Faralis]

Originally Posted by lounge60

If in 1943 Hitler is kill by Army conspirators at some point,and Mussolini is sent to home by the King,is possible a armistice (not unconditional surrender) with Germany and Italy?

Possible but very difficult. Italy alone is more probable, but the Military Junta would demand some impossible things for peace ( hell in Jul´s plot their supposed post killing Hitler peace offer was completely nuts, and thats after Normandy ... )

[anotherlurker]

chiang wants back his manchuria and taiwan.

war is coming to japan, if it wants it or not.

[b12ox]

The US can channel war econmy to focus it on Europe. War in the Pacific was much diffrent from war in Europe which was major problem as diffrent kind of walfare had to be manufactured to beat the enemy. Even for such a country like US it was production at full steam.

[Anime Ninja]

Originally Posted by anotherlurker

chiang wants back his manchuria and taiwan.

war is coming to japan, if it wants it or not.

Looking at this idea, the militaristic factions don't gain traction in Japan and the Nationalists win in China. When the Nationalists try and get back both Manchuria and Taiwan, would the western nations support Japan. That might really change the dynamics of any post war relationships. Britain just finished fight a major war in Europe and the US was involved in some way, selling arms or joining in the fighting. Would the western powers even allow another war? The deciding factor would be the USSR, what side do they jump on.

[Decatur]

Originally Posted by lounge60

We assume that for some reason the history of Japan in early XX century is different that in OTL.
Japan not invade China,and not become a militaristic/para-fascist nation,and maintains very good relations with USA and British Empire.

An industrialized, democratic Japan will probably end up joining the Allies.

[Marix]

Originally Posted by Anime Ninja

Looking at this idea, the militaristic factions don't gain traction in Japan and the Nationalists win in China. When the Nationalists try and get back both Manchuria and Taiwan, would the western nations support Japan. That might really change the dynamics of any post war relationships. Britain just finished fight a major war in Europe and the US was involved in some way, selling arms or joining in the fighting. Would the western powers even allow another war? The deciding factor would be the USSR, what side do they jump on.

May depend on how long it takes for the war in China to end, as well as how Japan treats Taiwan and Manchuria.

[Henriksson]

If the border war between Japan and the USSR turns into full-blown war it is quite likely the Japanese will be booted off the Chinese mainland, negating the primary motivation for expansion into the Pacific in the first place.

[Paul V McNutt]

The U S entry is delayed. Without Pearl Harbor thier is less supportf
for the war amongst Americans.

[hairysamarian]

Originally Posted by lounge60

Japan not invade China,and not become a militaristic/para-fascist nation,and maintains very good relations with USA and British Empire.

The truce between the factions of the Chinese civil war never gets made, since there is no common Japanese enemy. Thus, that conflict comes to a resolution sooner rather than later. So East Asia will still boil, though it shouldn't distract the US anything like how fighting Japan did IOTL. The nuclear program goes forward, since that was actually established with Germany in mind, but the bomb probably never gets used in combat. Germany will be crumbling faster than the Allies can find targets.

[jkay]

Japan was actually alot like Britain, a democraticish constitutional monarchy. Their wars were about trying to catch up with the Anglo level of conquered turf. Our TR even encouraged them in that path. And they had a similar amount of success to Britain, maybe because of that democracy.

They could've avoided war if they'd coordinated more and earlier on what was OK to conquer to us and other big powers. They did, in fact, try, too late, but FDR rejected it.

What drove Tojo's coup was a primeministerial resignation following FDR's refusal to talk.