Fall Gelb succeeds - invasion of France does not

[Jukra]

POD: While Fall Gelb succeeds brilliantly the most important German forces participating in the effort suffer more casualties than OTL. Thus the follow-on operation Fall Rot does not succeed and is cancelled after initial onslaught does not get through. By end of June the front has stabilized on River Somme. Due to situation looking better for France Mussolini has not declared war on France.

What will happen next? France has suffered a major military defeat, British forces have to be reconstituted, Belgium and the Netherlands have been occupied.

In the Mediterranean the situation is peaceful. Italy is still out of the war. In the Far East Japan is in no position to press for occupation of French Indo China. Supplies are flowing to Nationalist China. Japan will also not join Tripartite Pact.

In the US what will happen in the presidential elections.

The Allies are getting stronger but how long it will take to constitute forces that could liberate France under occupation, Belgium and the Netherlands?
Will the UK and France have money for it? Will they have will for it as communists are leading subversive action against France and UK waging war?

Germany has to reconstitute it's forces as well for 1941. With more casualties, what will the correlation of forces will be for a 1941 campaign? Now that Germany have better bases for waging war on Britain, how will the air campaign conducted?

How about Scandinavia? Will the Allies hold on in Northern Norway?

[mrmandias]

I don't have answers, but this is a fascinating POD.

[Magnum]

how does this

Originally Posted by Jukra

POD: While Fall Gelb succeeds brilliantly

still enable the allies to do this

the most important German forces participating in the effort suffer more casualties than OTL.

, given that most of the good allied formations have essentially been knocked off the board? In order for Fall Rot to fail, a substantial part of the panzer force has to be destroyed. How do you do that however if your forces are trapped and destroyed/forced to abandon all their stuff ?

[Simreeve]

Originally Posted by Jukra

POD: While Fall Gelb succeeds brilliantly the most important German forces participating in the effort suffer more casualties than OTL. Thus the follow-on operation Fall Rot does not succeed and is cancelled after initial onslaught does not get through. By end of June the front has stabilized on River Somme.

Dunkirk? BEF fallen back through France, as its lines back south-westwards weren't cut in time, instead? BEF mostly captured?

[High Plains Drifter]

Originally Posted by Jukra

POD: While Fall Gelb succeeds brilliantly the most important German forces participating in the effort suffer more casualties than OTL. Thus the follow-on operation Fall Rot does not succeed and is cancelled after initial onslaught does not get through. By end of June the front has stabilized on River Somme. Due to situation looking better for France Mussolini has not declared war on France.

What will happen next? France has suffered a major military defeat, British forces have to be reconstituted, Belgium and the Netherlands have been occupied.

Fall Gelb succeeds brilliantly. So the Germans reach the Channel before the BEF and French 7th Army can retreat back into France. Maybe they reach the Channel a couple days later than IOTL because they have taken greater casualties. Operation Dynamo pulls out over 300,000 troops from the Dunkirk area. Perhaps Dynamo is an even greater success and more French troops are evacuated.

The most important German forces participating in the effort suffer more casualties than OTL. This most likely means the Panzer formations. So Guderians Panzer Corps (1st, 2nd, & 10th Divisions) get hammered harder in crossing the Meuse and later when attacked by de Gaulle's 4e Cuirrassee Division. Rommel's 7th Panzer Division is hurt more at the Battle of Arras (perhaps the French 3rd Light Mech Division, which was in the area, joined with the Brits in their initial attack). The 3rd and 4th Panzer Divisions take more damage at the Battles of Hannut and Gembloux Gap in Belgium.

Perhaps in some of these battles the Germans don't maintain control of the battlefield at the end of the day, IOTL they were able to recover and repair a significant number of their damaged tanks.

More damage to the German ground forces would make a more effective Dunkirk evacuation more probable. IOTL 40,000 or so French soldiers were captured. More might make it out now.


IOTL, Fall Rot started in early June. Maybe now it can't start till mid June. That would allow wider and better implementation of the hedgehog defense in depth tactic by the French. This might be able to stem Fall Rot.

But I don't see the line stabilizing on the Somme. IOTL the Germans (Guderian's Panzers) initially arrived at the Channel at Abbeville, which is on the Somme. To make the final front on the Somme Guderian's Corps would have to have been stopped and its Hoth's Panzer Corps (5th and 7th Divisions) that reaches the Channel, say near Boulogne. But we still haven't dealt with what might have slowed Reinhardt's Panzer Corps or Wietersheim's motorized infantry Corps, which belonged to the same Panzer Group as Guderian's Corps. Maybe they get pulled up to help out at Dunkirk?

At best, I can see a stabilized front along a line of the Seine-Oise-Aisne rivers. And with that, Paris will take a pounding.

If the front can be stabilized as above, and be maintained, the war then becomes one of attrition. Ultimately, even with a lot of French Industry overrun, a war of attrition bodes poorly for the Nazis.

[Jukra]

Originally Posted by High Plains Drifter

If the front can be stabilized as above, and be maintained, the war then becomes one of attrition. Ultimately, even with a lot of French Industry overrun, a war of attrition bodes poorly for the Nazis.

Thanks for better reconsidered chain of events than I thought at first!

On war of attrition, I'm certain what you write above would have happened if Fall Gelb failed and front lines stuck in somewhere, say, Belgium. But in case of Fall Gelb succeeding but Fall Rot not succeeding a more important part of the French industry and economic industry has been captured than ever during the First World War.

By next winter US orders would start to come in to France and UK, alongside perhaps even Italian war material, but for how long could France and UK pay for them? In OTL Britain started to run out of money by 1941. With France still in fight and threat to US not acute, with fighting stuck somewhere in Northern France could Lend-Lease still materialize? On French finances I have no idea but I'd imagine they would not be much better off?

On Nazis, unlike Imperial Germany, they are not blockaded by virtue of being supplied by USSR. Nazis and UK/France bleeding each other white in NW Europe was Stalin's goal so I'd expect him to support Hitler as long as he could, at least to 1942 when his own rearming was ready.

[Catspoke]

Maybe if a good chunk of the German armor got wrecked in a counter attack, then the Germans would have to rely on their huge surplus of largely untouched infantry and larger airforce to win the battle.

If the French defend the Paris and Lyon urban areas, I can see them holding out for 2-3 months more max.

I don't see France going Vichy in this case or the Battle Of Britain happening that year. Extra losses might cause Russia to get delayed till 42. Britain might have fed a division or two into the fight in July 40 but is largely better off if Italy is not in the game and France is still Allied.