The Whale has Wings

[Cymraeg]

Originally Posted by Obfuscated

Most general staff fall victim to the fallacy of believing what their field commanders tell them, the IJA general staff doesn't bother with the field commander telling them part and skips right to "And the operation went exactly as we thought it would" in analyzing and planning their next move.

Very true. The best example of this kind of idiocy was Imphal-Kohima. And we all know how that ended up!

[Hyperion]

Originally Posted by Ramp-Rat

LegonoftheUnitedStates, while Astrodragon has given us a clue as to British intentions, in his latest post, there is something I think you are missing. The British lead forces do not need to fight their way up the length of Siam and FIC. There is the possibility of a direct attack into FIC across the boarder with Burma. Not easy to do, the logistics would be a bitch, but in the end doable. There is also the possibility of a seaborne invasion of FIC or Siam, which given the enormous length of coastline, is given sufficient landing craft etc, is even more doable. Finally, the British could support a Chinese invasion of the north of FIC, though I do think the French might have a thing or two to say about this.

I think it was hinted at but not look at as much recently, but Yamashita's forces are considerably weaker than the British and Commonwealth forces actually think they are. I'd say once the army goes in against the Japanese, they're going to start taking out more Japanese forces and gaining more ground then they expected.

[LegionoftheUnitedStates]

Originally Posted by Ramp-Rat

LegonoftheUnitedStates, while Astrodragon has given us a clue as to British intentions, in his latest post, there is something I think you are missing. The British lead forces do not need to fight their way up the length of Siam and FIC. There is the possibility of a direct attack into FIC across the boarder with Burma. Not easy to do, the logistics would be a bitch, but in the end doable. There is also the possibility of a seaborne invasion of FIC or Siam, which given the enormous length of coastline, is given sufficient landing craft etc, is even more doable. Finally, the British could support a Chinese invasion of the north of FIC, though I do think the French might have a thing or two to say about this.

You may be right, I had not thought of the Burma-Laos border area as being an invasion route, largely because I am unfamiliar with the geography.

But even a secondary attack there would give the IJA heartburn.

[Garrison]

Originally Posted by Tyg

My thoughts exactly. What exactly are they smoking?

It's bad enough they're trying to expand operations to New Guinea without having secured more important objectives elsewhere. Just how many critical transports or merchants are they willing to lose on ancillary targets?

I think it's simply that they have two choices; to go on and assume things are going to work out because their superior spirit will carry them through. Or they can face the reality that the grand plan is coming unglued. The problem with the latter option is they have no contingency options; the logical end point is at best a peace deal on humiliating terms and so they choose the first option and simply ignore the facts.

[LegionoftheUnitedStates]

Originally Posted by Hyperion

I think it was hinted at but not look at as much recently, but Yamashita's forces are considerably weaker than the British and Commonwealth forces actually think they are. I'd say once the army goes in against the Japanese, they're going to start taking out more Japanese forces and gaining more ground then they expected.

That is what I was thinking. The IJA is a fairly good light infantry force on the defensive, in a static defense where it has to be dug out. But that is not going to be the game the British will be playing. Unlike OTL where the Commonwealth forces in Malaya were kept off balance and had to react to the Japanese.

ITTL the shoe's on the other foot. If the Japanese attack first, the Commonwealth forces will be dug in, and the Japanese may well get a crash course in attacking trenches that the Commonwealth learned in 1915.

If the Commonwealth attacks first, the Japanese will discover the Commonwealth is fighting by Western Desert rules, and can move with speed and power that light infantry can't cope with.


Either way, the Japanese are going to be the ones kept off balance, and I don't think their command and control systems can cope with an all out combined arms assault. I have a picture in my head of Tojo being told one day that British tanks are entering Bangkok, and week later that they are in Saigon.

I'm not sure if the road system there can support it, however.

[Astrodragon]

Remember, the only part of the Japanese plan that is really behind schedule is Malaya. And the army is blaming that on the navy not supplying them.
Everything else is looking not too bad - so far.
But thats going to change quite rapidly.

And of course admitting Plan A is coming apart at the seams is rather impossible as there IS no Plan B....

[Garrison]

Given the impending monsoon, the attitude to General Homma, and the ever expanding list of objectives I suspect Yamashita is going to be bluntly told to get on with 'finishing off' the British; after all he's holding up the entire timetable of victory the high command has planned.

[Astrodragon]

Originally Posted by LegionoftheUnitedStates

That is what I was thinking. The IJA is a fairly good light infantry force on the defensive, in a static defense where it has to be dug out. But that is not going to be the game the British will be playing. Unlike OTL where the Commonwealth forces in Malaya were kept off balance and had to react to the Japanese.

ITTL the shoe's on the other foot. If the Japanese attack first, the Commonwealth forces will be dug in, and the Japanese may well get a crash course in attacking trenches that the Commonwealth learned in 1915.

If the Commonwealth attacks first, the Japanese will discover the Commonwealth is fighting by Western Desert rules, and can move with speed and power that light infantry can't cope with.


Either way, the Japanese are going to be the ones kept off balance, and I don't think their command and control systems can cope with an all out combined arms assault. I have a picture in my head of Tojo being told one day that British tanks are entering Bangkok, and week later that they are in Saigon.

I'm not sure if the road system there can support it, however.

Quite true. The Imperial troops have been digging in (aided by local civilians) for some two months now.
And when they attack, it will start off with the British Army's party trick - heavy and continuing artillery barrage, then troops led by armour.

[Faralis]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

When it is pointed out that the USN doesn't actually have the escorts available, a compromise plan is reached for the short term; ships will be escorted during the day, and go into port at night.

Astro this sound a bit like an excuse, ITTL they do have the 50 mothballed destroyers, of course they are pure bricks but ...

Thanks for the update.

[Hyperion]

Earlier you mentioned the French sending a brigade size force to the region, more as a symbolic jesture than anything.

If the British have even the slightest chance of pusing the Japanese back into Thailand, or making moves towards French Indochina, might the French commander be a good person to try and use to persuade Vichy garrison troops to switch sides, or to promote guerilla warfare in the region.

If they have any officers or enlisted that have ever in the past been stationed in Indochina, that might be something that should be pointed out to the SAS or SBS commando units the British have in the region. Might be able to draw up a couple of targets further back, and even a light raid could tie up a large number of Japanese infantry at a time when the really can't afford such distractions.

[usertron2020]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

March 4th

The Japanese Imperial General Staff decides that once the occupation of Java is complete, to expand its conquest to New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, the Fiji Islands and American Samoa. Taking the Fijis and Samoa would cut America's supply line to Australia.

Before Malaya/Singapore/Burma is finished? I do NOT want whatever they are drinking.

General MacArthur informs Rear Admiral Rockwell, Commandant of the Sixteenth Naval District, that he has been instructed to leave Corregidor. The plan is for him and his party to board the submarine USS Permit which is scheduled to leave Corregidor on 14 March.

Hmm. No Bataan Gang? Or no cryptanalysts?

The issues over the convoying of US ships off the East coast of America, and the refusal of merchant captains to sail unless they are convoyed, reaches Churchill and Roosevelt. Both are annoyed, for different reasons. (1) Churchill bluntly informs Roosevelt that the heavy losses of tankers can no longer be tolerated, and they either go in convoy or stay in port. Even though the RN escort forces are stretched, they will provide escorts, but he points out that it would be better if the USN escorts them, and this will look better politically. He also notes that it is not going to be possible to sit on the US press much longer, (2) and that if news of the current situation gets out, it will be damaging.

1) Does FDR have a different reason than Churchill for being upset?

2) Never mind the press. There is the little matter of all those exploding ships on the horizon of American shores, and all those bodies washing ashore on the beaches.

March 5th

Imperial General Headquarters issues Navy Directive No.62 ordering Commander-in-Chief, Combined Fleet, upon completion of the Java operation, to annihilate the remaining enemy force in Dutch New Guinea and to occupy strategic points of that territory. The objectives of the occupation are to survey the country for possible sites for air bases, anchorages and oilfields, as well to secure a good communication and supply line with British New Guinea.

Building up more air bases closer to Malaya and Singapore? Surely, that's really the only hope the Japanese have now?

A Japanese convoy bound for Huon Gulf, New Guinea, sails from Rabaul, New Britain Island, during the night of the 5th/6th

It's been long enough for the USN at this point to redeploy its Atlantic Fleet carriers to the Pacific...or not?

Roosevelt orders the USN to sort itself out over convoys. Merchant ships WILL be escorted, with no arguments. King is furious, but is bluntly informed that he can be replaced if he won't obey the command - while Roosevelt does not want to do this, an Admiral who doesn't follow his orders is useless to him. When it is pointed out that the USN doesn't actually have the escorts available, a compromise plan is reached for the short term; ships will be escorted during the day, and go into port at night.

If there was one person on Earth King did NOT bridle with it was Franklin Delano Roosevelt. He might be furious, but he would have to basically "steam" internally and do some serious chewing on his tongue.

March 6th

U.S. Lieutenant General Stilwell, Commanding General American Army Forces, China, Burma, and India, confers for the first time with Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek in Chungking.

And in this corner....ding-ding!

March 7th

While returning from a reconnaissance mission over Gasmata and Rabaul in the Bismarck Archipelago, the crew of an RAAF Hudson based at Seven Mile Airstrip, Port Moresby, sights a convoy of 11 ships heading for Salamaua. These contain troops of the South Seas detachment. This has caught the allies by surprise; they have been readying their forces for the soon-expected invasion of Java, and the Royal Navy forces are at the west of the DEI. The allies only have a light force in the area, but on sighting what seems to be an invasion force a brigade of the 8th Australian Division is ordered to be ready for operations.

AIUI, the 8th Australian Division is still a Militia Division, which means at this point they are still under-equipped and undertrained... At least ITTL, the Australian Militia apparently have been allowed to fight outside Australia earlier than OTL. But they are still green conscripts, not the battle-hardened veteran volunteers of the 6th and 7th.

General Homma is less amused when inspecting officers from the Imperial General Staff in Tokyo arrive to find out why he hasn't taken the Philippines on time. However, the staff officers realize that Homma needs reinforcements, and ship in the 65th Brigade of 3,500 men and the 4th Infantry Division from Shanghai. Homma is not happy, as the 4th's 11,000 men are the worst equipped division in the whole Japanese army. However, 240mm siege guns from China are welcome

Jeez. When it rains, it pours. Like the poor US veterans in the Philippines didn't have enough to face. Now Homma will have guns capable of blasting away at Corregidor in a manner that the US guns on the island have been doing to his own troops.

[usertron2020]

Originally Posted by Faralis

Astro this sound a bit like an excuse, ITTL they do have the 50 mothballed destroyers, of course they are pure bricks but ...

Thanks for the update.

There's something I don't understand. The US started WWII with some 177 fleet destroyers,(1) not counting the 50 L-L DD's that apparently were never sent to the UK. There were PLENTY of DD's available for the convoying of merchant ships on the Eastern Seaboard. The USN had many destroyers tied up protecting CV's, yes. But the surviving Battleforce was left without escort protection well into 1943 (stuck on the US West Coast). There's no need for DD's to escort American battleships heading into the Pacific (except the WWII built ones undergoing sea trials) so where are the rest all going except convoy escort?

I remember an interview with the senior surviving most successful U-Boat captain (promoted to shore duty, so I guess that's how he survived). He was right in the heart of the Second Happy Time. He remembered sinking American merchantmen right outside US naval bases, in full view of docked destroyers. He was amazed at the time of the lack of response, and his only answer at the time of the interview decades later was "I don't know, maybe King was a friend of mine?"

The USN HAD the destroyers available for convoy duty, whatever King may have told Roosevelt.

1) NOTE: However, the Royal Navy, which IIRC, had 181 destroyers at the start of the war, also had 150 specialized ASW frigates/destroyer escorts. The US, IIRC, had NONE.

[usertron2020]

LegionoftheUnitedStates

What happens in regard to all that IJA tenacity? Do the Japanese give up? Or fight to the last man, as usual? Or, is the terrain more friendly to open warfare in Malaya? That is not what I thought, but my knowledge of Malayan geography is poor.

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Originally Posted by Faralis

Astro this sound a bit like an excuse, ITTL they do have the 50 mothballed destroyers, of course they are pure bricks but ...

Thanks for the update.

And the brits have almost eenough escorts themselvess this time round. PLUS those frigate factories are already running at full speed.

[Astrodragon]

March 9th

American troops, Task Force 6814 consisting of the HQ of the 51st Infantry Brigade and the 132d and 182 Infantry under the command of Major General Patch, land at Noumea on New Caledonia Island.

President Roosevelt again radios MacArthur to leave the Philippines and MacArthur agrees he will leave Corregidor by 15 March. The original plan was for MacArthur and party to leave in the submarine USS Permit on 14 March. However, the radio press in the U.S. has begun broadcasting demands that MacArthur be placed in command of all Allied Forces in Australia and the Japanese, expecting him to flee, have increased the size and frequency of naval patrols in Subic Bay and off Corregidor. A destroyer division is sighted in the southern Philippines heading north at high speed. Tokyo Rose is broadcasting that MacArthur will be captured within a month, and U.S. Navy officers give MacArthur a one-in-five chance. Therefore, It is decided not to wait for the submarine but to leave by motor torpedo boat as soon as preparations can be completed. The PT boats will take him to Mindanao Island and the party will then board three B-17's at Del Monte Field for a flight to Australia.

March 10th

The Japanese make a landing at Finschhafen on the Huon Peninsula. The Japanese needed to capture towns such as Finschhafen and Salamaua to protect their forward air base at Lae.

TF 11 (Vice Admiral Brown), which includes ships of TF 17 (Rear Admiral Fletcher), on the heels of initial nuisance raids by RAAF Hudsons, attacks the Japanese invasion fleet off Lae and Salamaua. Sixty one SBD Dauntless, supported by from the aircraft carriers USS Lexington and Yorktown fly over the 15,000-foot Owen Stanley Mountains on the tip of New Guinea to hit Japanese shipping. They sink an armed merchant cruiser, an auxiliary minelayer, and a transport; and damage destroyers HIJMS Yunagi, Asanagi, Oite, Asakaze, and Yakaze; a minelayer; seaplane carrier; a transport; and a minesweeper. One SBD is lost to antiaircraft fire.

Japanese troops land on Buka Island, the 190 square mile island just north of Bougainville Island. The two islands are separated by Buka Passage.

A convoy sets out from Darwin carrying Australian troops to New Guinea. It is expected that the Japanese will have consolidated their position before they can arrive, so they will land on the southern part of New Guinea. The USN TF 11 is asked to remain in the area S/SE of the island for long enough to provide the troop convoy with air cover if needed.

March 11th

General MacArthur leaves Luzon with the statement "I shall return!" General MacArthur, Commanding General U.S. Army Forces, Far East, his family, Rear Admiral Rockwell, and their staffs embark from Corregidor and Bataan in four motor torpedo (PT) boats, PT-32, PT-34, PT-35 and PT-41, of Motor Torpedo Boat Squadron Three. The plan is that the boats will make for Tagauayan Island, in the Cuyo Group, and arrive by 0730 hours tomorrow morning.


Three USAAF B-17's takeoff from Australia to fly to Del Monte Field on Mindanao to pick up the MacArthur party. One turns back due to mechanical problems, the second crashes at sea off Mindanao and the third lands at Del Monte however; it is in poor mechanical condition. Meanwhile Major General Jonathan Wainwright assumes command of the 95,000 Americans and Filipinos on Bataan and Corregidor.

In Brazil, President Vargas confiscates up to 30% of the funds of German, Italian and Japanese citizens resident in Brazil, recalls all Brazilian ships to port and confines the Japanese ambassador and his staff to the embassy. These measures are in response to the torpedoing of a fourth Brazilian vessel by the Germans and the mistreatment of the Brazilian ambassador in Tokyo.

More RAF Wellington bombers arrive at Singapore. Park intends to use these in their anti-shipping role (the crews are experienced ones from the Mediterranean), against the Japanese shipping expected to be used against Java. The long range and the two torpedoes of the Wellington allows them to operate from more distant bases, although any daytime attacks will need fighter escorts.

The Combined Chiefs of Staff suggest that General MacArthur be made command of the proposed SW Pacific theatre. Currently the commands envisaged are Burma/Malaya/West DEI (Alexander), DEI/New Guinea/Australia/ SE Islands (MacArthur) and Pacific (Nimitz). The suggesting goes down poorly both in London and Australia. They agree that Alexander and Nimitz are sensible commanders for the theatres suggested, given the nature of the combat expected there, but despite the strident US press support for MacArthur, they fail to see what qualifications he has for the command. 90% of the troops in the area and Imperial or Australian, and the Australians in particular see MacArthur's only contribution to the war so far as to lose the PI. "A clapped out first world war general" is one of the more printable Australian comments. The Australian government counter-proposes Blamey. They point out a number of advantages; he will be commanding mainly Australian troops, he has been working closely with Alexander for some time (useful as it is obvious that in practice the command boundaries between the two will be blurred by operational necessity), and he has fought successfully against the Italians and Japanese. The British, while being more polite about MacArthur, are quite happy to support Blamey. he is seen as being a good infantry commander, and given the expected nature of operations in the theatre, armoured thrusts and grandiose complex assaults are expected to be few and far between.

March 12th

General Alexander authorises preliminary work on the planned attack on Yamashita's troop in Northern Malaya, in particular stocks of artillery shells to allow a heavy bombardment of selected positions. He expects expenditure of artillery ammunition to be high, and the attack itself will wait on his next supply convoy from the Middle East, expected in a few weeks, which will bring both reinforcements and more ammunition. As part of the preparations, the RAF starts to make photo-reconnaissance flights over the Japanese positions and supply lines, disguised as much as possible as part of the continuing operation of small attacks on the Japanese. These are also intended to wear down the Japanese air cover, so that by the time the attack is launched the RAF will have air superiority.

Middle East command inform the CCoS that due to the advanced preparations for troop landings in theatre, they do not feel a US Division can be ready in time. They suggest and early deployment of one brigade from the US 1st Infantry division, followed by the rest of the Division as soon as possible. It would be impractical to include the brigade in the first operations, but it should be achievable for the posited third landing, and the political benefits would be obvious. Delaying until then will also allow the troops to be trained in the techniques required (MEC left out the opinion of a couple of officers sent to the US to look into the possibilities that the US unit would require additional training to bring it up to Allied standards). It would also be possible (depending on timescales) to use the entire division, although only one brigade would likely be trained for an assault landing.

March 13th

The two PT boats carrying General MacArthur and party, PT-34 and PT-41, arrive at Cagayan on Mindanao Island in the early morning. Later in the day, a third boat, PT-35, arrives at Cagayan. The three boats had made the 560-mile voyage in heavy to moderate seas in two days. The next leg of MacArthur’s journey to Australia is to be by B-17, but only one has reached Del Monte Field and it had wheezed in to a wobbly landing. MacArthur, furious, will allow no one to board the "dangerously decrepit" aircraft, and demands the “three best planes in the U.S. or Hawaii," manned by “completely adequate, experienced” airmen be flown to Del Monte. Unfortunately, Major General Brett, Commanding General U.S. Army Forces in Australia, has neither. The party must now await the arrival of three additional B-17's from Australia.
The Japanese, having gained firm positions in the Lae-Salamaua area, replace infantry with naval forces.

A Japanese force from the 4th Fleet sails from Rabaul, New Britain Island, for Buka Island, Solomon Islands, which is eventually seized together with other positions in the northern Solomons.

RAF and USAAF reconnaissance planes are still showing a steady build-up of Japanese forces in the Celebes, as well as preparations in the SouthEast part of Borneo (the area under Japanese control), and an invasion of Java is now expected within two weeks. The Japanese are expected to use around two divisions, and Somerville is making plans to deny them the option of landing anywhere except on the eastern part of the island (he expects Japanese air cover too strong for surface forces to intervene east of Java). US and RN submarines are being redeployed to cover the expected invasion routes. For the time being, the small Japanese operations in the SE Pacific are a lower priority, as Java is seen as the main target. If Java falls, Singapore will be exposed to close range air attacks and possible invasion, and the defence lines for the island, preparations for which had been given a lower priority after the Japanese were held in the north, have again been speeded up.

[Devolved]

Looks like MacArthur has to wait a little longer in the departure lounge. Will the Japanese arrive and provide refreshments?

[trekchu]

Even if he makes it out, when he hears about the Australian and the Brits refusing to accept him in what is and probably will remain a 90% Commonwealth area...

"How dare they not worship the ground I walk on!"

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Originally Posted by Devolved

Looks like MacArthur has to wait a little longer in the departure lounge. Will the Japanese arrive and provide refreshments?

Sure looks like it me.

Wasnt the yubari taken out at wake, was that a different tl, or was it just damaged, since repaired?

[The Oncoming Storm]

It would be amusing if Dugout Doug was left kicking his heels at some godforsaken airfield while something decisive happened elsewhere...

[Devolved]

Originally Posted by The Oncoming Storm

It would be amusing if Dugout Doug was left kicking his heels at some godforsaken airfield while something decisive happened elsewhere...

He can take to the forest, strip down to his pants and live out his Tarzan fantasy.