What If The Red Army Captures Warsaw in 1920?

[Adler17]

Beck tries to play a game with the Germans. And I am curious, if he succeeds. "Diplomacy is a filthy game", you said here. Indeed it is.

Adler

[Adler17]

Indeed Ebert needs to respond very carefully. He can't blatantly refuse this insult, at least how he will recognize it. He, as most other German politicians, feel strongly betrayed by the British and especially by the Polish. But as long as they have no means to say "Götz von Berlichingen" ("Leck mich am Arsch!" Screw you! quote in Goethe's "Götz von Berlichingen" and used later to say screw you without being vulgar), they have to be more prudent.

Another option would be saying simply yes and betray the Entente powers. In the hope to get away with that later.

But the best would be a note, in which everything is open, but where the Entente can't say much- now.

I would make this note:

The German government makes it absolutely clear to fight only a defensive war. We don't have any claims against the Soviet Union, who attacked us, nor will we demand something like this, except for reparations. Our only aim is to remove any threat of our territories by foreign powers. In this case it is the Bolshevic armies. This is no war of annexion. The German government accepts the burden to help our neighbour Poland in this situation as well, what we already do. However, as Poland had started the war with the Bolshevics, we will not and cannot fight a war of agression for them. We will stop there, where the Polish border rightfully is.

In several ways this is true: There are no claims against the Soviets. The Germans defend themselves. It is no war of annexation. The Germans will help Poland. But they can't make an agression war out of it. And they will stop at the Polish border. But here it is the point to discuss. What is the rightful Polish border? From the German pov the eastern Polish border can be questioned, at least to a certain degree. IF Beck accepts the German border adjustments, he gets more. If not, and if he runs to Briand again to cry, he gets only Congress Poland. The Czechs may want to take more, too...

Adler

[stubear1012]

I agree with Adler17 on the note.

In my mind, the key is for Germany to play for time. It is late October and winter is coming. While winter may shutdown the campaign, it does not shutdown the German factories and ports. During the winter, they can receive the American equipment, rechamber the captured Russian rifles, and produce more of their own weapons.

Meanwhile in Poland, the Russians continue to life off the land by seizing Polish food. The Poles fight back which leads to more killing. Between the lack of food and the killing, things will get bad in Poland. Then in the spring time, Germany can drive the Russians out of the former German territories and maybe a buffer zone to have more defend able borders. However most of Poland remains under Russian control. The Polish government then has to decide what to do to get the Russians out of the rest of Poland. I don't see where the Poles can drive the Russians out themselves and I don't see the British or French dying for Poland. Germany can then focus on reclaiming the communist held Bavaria.

Stubear1012

[abc123]

Originally Posted by stubear1012

I agree with Adler17 on the note.

Second that.

[LOTLOF]

October 31, 1920

It had taken a few hours to arrange things.

There were two movie cameras recording the event along with more than two dozen reporters snapping pictures. The Soviet general Vselav was slowly trudging towards Field Marshal Mackensen and his assembled staff. He had already been searched to confirm he was unarmed. The general looked thin and hollow eyed and very weary. He managed to keep his back straight and head held high even if he was moving slowly. He made a great point of ignoring the cameras and photographers.

When Vselav at last stood in front of Mackensen he halted and offered a salute.

The Field Marshal returned the courtesy and spoke in German which the Russian general also spoke. “I am Field Marshal Mackensen commanding officer of the First Army of the German Republic. May I ask for what reason you have requested the cease fire and this meeting?”

Vselav sighed wearily. “On behalf of the men under my command and the glorious soviet stae we serve I have come to request terms for a surrender.”

“No terms,” Mackensen replied immediately. “Your surrender is unconditional.”

“What assurance do I have that my men will not be murdered as soon as they give up their guns?”

A few of the German officers muttered angrily at the insulting question but the Field Marshal remained stoic.

“We Germans do not massacre prisoners. You have my word they will be treated as prisoners of war as per the Hague Convention. They will be provided food and shelter and receive medical care as needed until such time as they are released or exchanged.”

“Your word?” The soviet general scoffed. “What is the word of a German imperialist worth?”

This produced another set of slightly louder, slightly angrier mutters.

“I have no terms to offer you and no assurances.” Mackensen answered coldly. “If you will not surrender then you may return to your lines. We will renew the attack within an hour.”

“If my men could fight any more we would. We have no bullets and no food. The men have been eating roots and tree bark and any bugs they can catch. There’s no medicine for the wounded. We can’t fight anymore, we can only die.” He took a deep breath. “For the sake of my men I will surrender them without condition and hope they will receive fair treatment.”

XXX

The cameras continued to roll as the Russian soldiers came out of their trenches and stacked arms. Then they marched off into captivity. More than thirty five thousand of them.

Their rifles and other arms were gathered up. Originally plans had been to provide these weapons to the Polish Free Army. Just recently though the field marshal had received new instructions. The weapons would be rechambered and used to arm some Landwehr units.

Mackensen had also received new orders regarding the Polish guerillas. They were not to receive any further supplies or assistance. They were also no longer permitted to cross the border, if they did so they were to be treated as refugees. They would be disarmed and transported westward to the refugee camps of the Rhineland.

The field marshal had no idea the reason behind this sudden and radical departure in policy. He only wished he could have received these orders a few weeks earlier before Nowicki and his men had gone off on their own. If they eventually returned Mackensen would be happy to take his weapons back and ship the lot of them west.

November 2, 1920

With sixty percent of the popular vote and four hundred and four electoral votes Republican Warren G. Harding became the twenty ninth President of the United States. In his acceptance speech he promised the American people a return to normalcy and a bright peaceful future. He also pledged that their soldiers would never again have to fight someone else’s war.

“We will be strong enough to protect ourselves and wise enough not to try and protect the rest of the world.”

[Adler17]

I guess the Germans will now try to rush and force the Danzig army into submission. And then let the Warsaw army and Polish guerillas have a lot of fun in the winter. The situation in Poland will become more and more a catastrophe. Huge parts of the population will starve, many will be killed in revenge for Polish partisans, which will cause even more attacks on the Soviets. The message to Beck is clear: Either you give us the border adjustment, and keeps us Briand away, or, well, "we are unfortunately not able to go into the offensive, as we are bound to the Versailles treaty. Hochachtungsvoll, Ebert, Reichspräsident".

Vselav is now in danger to be seens as traitor in the USSR, as he had the task to defend the position until the last man. Like his other 35.000 men.

Adler

[clifton]

The Germans will continue to destroy the Danzig army and hold on West Prussia, in order to have an landbridge with East Prussia. Then go on the defensive and begin reclaiming Bavaria(+ Austria). Once the Germans have a million plus army. They will just threaten to seek peace with the Sovjets. Beck should have been able to keep Posen if he didn't got too gready. With Entente support he should able to retain it. Now however it doesn't surprise me if Poland stays an Sovjet republic or an small wrecked country. Poland would now have to settle with congress of Poland and West Galicia.

[Adler17]

He will likely though lose parts of Posen as well (Bromberg).

Adler

[rottengreekfire]

Just caught myself up. Very, very good. I am eagerly awaiting the next installment.

[Methatron]

Great TL. Now that the Germans kicked the Red Army out of their territory, they can let them do the dirty job of pressing the Poles into accepting a more reasonable border settlement. The Germans just have to stand by and watch, and of course stay alert in case the Reds should move against them once more.

Looking forward to more updates.

[Adler17]

Yes. Destroying the Danzig Army and capturing West Prussia is a must. But else? Only if Beck rethinks his position.

Adler

[stubear1012]

I remember reading that the German reparations became the basis of how Britian and France paid their war debts to the US. I remember reading how in the 20's the American banks would lend money to Germany, Germany would use the money to pay reparations, and the British/French would then pay their war debt. However the American loans were short term and dried up after the stock market crash. Then the whole cycle broke down.

In this timeline, whith Germany stopping reparation payments to Britian and will probably stop payments to France, what does this do to their ability to pay on their war debt?

Stubear1012

[History_Pintobean]

Great alternate history and writing!

In contrast to some, I do see a Soviet victory in Poland as entirely possible.

I find it a great tragedy that the Russian Civil War occurred-and how it ended with Russia once more subjugating minority nationalities, this time hiding behind red garb.

In Georgia's case, I recall that it was invaded without Lenin's knowledge by commanders eager to incorporate it back into the former Russian empire.

Lenin wrote as his last letter a few lines detailing to Georgian communists his willingness to follow the 'Georgian question' "with all his heart."

Lenin stated that greater autonomy was paramount to preventing Russian-chauvinism, as he called it, towards minority nationalities. Stalin disagreed.

Stalin, who was ironically a Georgian and therefore had all to gain from greater Georgian autonomy or independence, later would assert tighter Russian control over Georgia!

As for Poland, historically Poland leaving the Russian empire was seen as a perquisite to the downfall of the Russian monarchy and the creation of a free Russia.

And yet, the Soviets sought to once more add Poland to a greater Russia.

[LOTLOF]

Originally Posted by stubear1012

I remember reading that the German reparations became the basis of how Britian and France paid their war debts to the US. I remember reading how in the 20's the American banks would lend money to Germany, Germany would use the money to pay reparations, and the British/French would then pay their war debt. However the American loans were short term and dried up after the stock market crash. Then the whole cycle broke down.

In this timeline, whith Germany stopping reparation payments to Britian and will probably stop payments to France, what does this do to their ability to pay on their war debt?

Stubear1012

At this point the United States is still economically sound, the British are heavily in debt and their economy is headed for a slow down, France is far and away in the worst condition. Not only are they heavily in debt with a poor economy they also have to rebuild alot of their country and about one fourth of their adult male population is gone.

The US was always the strongest economy and didn't feel they needed reparations from Germany. They never asked for any, feeling that Britain, France, and Belgium had greater need for them. If Germany announces a moratorium on reparation payments it will hit France hardest and they can be expected to have the most severe reaction. Britain will be seriously affected as well. The US will be effected at second hand because the Allies will have to suspend the payment on their war loans.

If this happens in 1920 - 1921 I don't see the result being an earlier Great Depression, but a world wide recession is likely with countries like France, Belgium, and Italy being hit the hardest.

[stubear1012]

Thank you LOTLOF for the explaination on the financial impact of Germany stopping their reparation payments.

I am really enjoying this timeline and looking forward to seeing how it develops.

Stubear1012

[LOTLOF]

November 3, 1920

Stresemann was once again in Berlin.

It seemed of late as though he spent half of his time in a rail car shuttling between Paris and Berlin. He was currently in a private meeting with President Ebert.

“The Englanders have stabbed us in the back.” Ebert said not even trying to hide his bitterness.

The mood in the President’s office was very different from that of the rest of Berlin or Germany. The recent victory was being compared to Tannenberg and Field Marshal Mackensen was a new Hindenburg. The papers were calling for a drive on Warsaw followed by one on Moscow. Everyone appeared to assume that the Soviets would be crushed and Bavaria soon liberated.

More worrisome, many believed that Germany had been restored to the ranks of the great powers. The talk was that victory in this war would erase the shame and dishonor of the Great War.

Stresemann knew better.

On the first hand the war was a long way from over. He knew there was no possibility of mounting a drive on Warsaw until next spring at the earliest. Despite their defeat the Bolsheviks still had armies in the field and had shown no sign they were seeking an end to the war. As for capturing Moscow, General Groener had told him privately that it was impossible given their logistical weaknesses. It would be impossible to keep a large army sufficiently supplied that distance. They would have to conquer some territory, pacify it, build up rail and road links, build up supplies, and then repeat the cycle. Each time they went forward they would have to make sure of their supply lines before pressing forward.

Groener estimated it would take the Reichswehr four to five years to capture Moscow, and that only if they had no other fronts to worry about. Groener had also pointed out that simply capturing Moscow might not end the war. A lesson Napoleon had learned to his sorrow.

On the second hand Stresemann understood that Germany was no longer a great power and could not afford to simply do as she pleased any more. Even if this war was won they would remain largely at the mercy of the Entente. They could not, under any circumstances, hope to fight Britain and France again. (Mercifully the United States no longer seemed to be a factor and appeared to have abandoned Europe completely.)

The question now though was what was Germany’s best course?

“This is nothing unusual for the British.” Stresemann said. “Their Lord Palmerston once said, ‘We have no permanent allies, we have no permanent enemies, we only have permanent interests.’ In the war they made all sorts of promises to Italy to convince them to enter the war on their side. At the peace conference when Wilson objected to these the British promptly reneged and abandoned the Italians in order to appease the Americans. Naturliche their promises to the Egyptians, Arabs and others were ignored or altered to their advantage. The British have a very long history of being, shall we say ‘flexible’ about their promises.”

“Have the British completely abandoned us? What of the rest of the agreement on rearmament?”

“I spoke to Foreign Secretary Curzon in private before my departure. He was quite apologetic about the declaration and insists it was only done under French pressure.”

“How very kind of him to say.” Ebert spoke sarcastically. “It’s interesting how the French only ever influence them when it suits their own agenda.”

Stresemann nodded. “They have certainly always been the senior partner in that relationship. In any case Curzon declared to me that the rest of the agreement still stands.”

“For now, until French pressure changes that too.”

Stresemann did not tell him he was wrong.

Ebert thought for a long moment. The Bolsheviks still had to be dealt with, the ones in Poland as well as the ones in Bavaria. He had no intention however of allowing his country to be used as a British and French pawn. German soldiers were not going to fight just to satisfy Polish ambitions and spare British and French lives.

“There is no need to rush an answer,” Ebert finally said. “We can deliberate as we continue to rearm. Our troops can build up their supplies while we await the spring to renew the offensive. An offensive that I imagine will be very slow and very deliberate. Perhaps we will concentrate all our efforts on liberating our own lands in East Prussia and Bavaria while we stand on the defensive everywhere else.”

“I can see the sense in that, but what will Groener and the general staff think? They may see destroying Russian armies as the priority.”

“In the last war whenever the military made a decision the government disagreed with they would scream ‘military necessity’ and we would do what the generals wanted. We all just blindly accepted that military needs came before political ones.” Ebert said sternly. “Look where that got us. The monarchy overthrown, revolution in the streets, West Prussia, Posen, the colonies all stolen from us, our proud Fatherland humbled and disgraced and almost ruined. We are not following that road again. The military will act according to political needs. If that means they are restrained from doing whatever they please, so be it.”

Stresemann nodded. “I agree that the government must be the master, not the generals.”

“Von Seeckt would never have understood that, but I believe Groener will.” Ebert said. “I also believe it is important we move more aggressively on the diplomatic front.”

“You want me to make a new offer in Paris?”

“No, not Paris.” Ebert told him with a grim expression. “I want you to go to Prague.”

[Adler17]

Smart move to go to Prague!

Adler

[Bavarian Raven]

nice update
keep 'em coming.

[rldragon]

Prague? Why Prague?

Great work, as always.

[stevep]

Originally Posted by rldragon

Prague? Why Prague?

Great work, as always.

Presumably because, while its also fearful of Germany it might have less concerns than other neighbours. Also possibly LOTLOF is thinking that Germany can offer Czechoslovakia part of Poland? There was some disputed border areas.

Steve