Retrospective US Presidential Election Results Thread

[Evan]

Originally Posted by Nerdlinger

The results of the 1988 Retrospective US Presidential Election

I noticed you gave Texas to Dukakis - did you have any reason? IOTL, it's been Republican ever since the Solid South switched color.

[Nerdlinger]

Originally Posted by Turquoise Blue

Why does it take longer to make infoboxes for this series, then for mine? Just asking.

I just do yours first, is all.

Originally Posted by Justin Green

Huh. I figured the Greenbacks would do better in the South.

They weren't even on the ballot in the South.

Originally Posted by Evan

I noticed you gave Texas to Dukakis - did you have any reason? IOTL, it's been Republican ever since the Solid South switched color.

It just happened to be under my somewhat arbitrary cutoff in the list of states ranked by the difference between the percentages of the vote garnered by Dukakis and Bush.

[Dean501]

Originally Posted by Nerdlinger

~~~~~~

From the ATL Wikipedia page:

Attachment 178000

Do you think that when we write our TL's we can edit what states are won by whom? As in, make this election be thrown to the house (and maybe 1908), or rather make IOTL's elections not be won by majority EV's but whomever wins the most? Or something like that just to reduce SOME of the ASBness.

Originally Posted by Abhakhazia

Well, my post will help you out. I'd love if I could collebrate.

We should, if you want to put in one entry.

[Abhakhazia]

Originally Posted by Deano1001

We should, if you want to put in one entry.

Thanks! That's awesome.

[Nerdlinger]

Originally Posted by Deano1001

Do you think that when we write our TL's we can edit what states are won by whom? As in, make this election be thrown to the house (and maybe 1908), or rather make IOTL's elections not be won by majority EV's but whomever wins the most? Or something like that just to reduce SOME of the ASBness.

The percentages in the polls here should represent the canonical percentages of the popular vote for each election (and also for the electoral vote from 1789-1800 only). The exact totals and distributions of the electoral vote are just what I made up for the Wikibox so as to give the majority of the EVs to the plurality winner. Those don't necessarily need to be canon, and if you like, you can even throw elections to the House due to a lack of a majority in the EC. However, the winning candidates should still be the winners and the losing candidates the losers (and roughly in the order in which they ended up in the poll results).

I fully understand how implausible some of these election results have been, historically speaking. The idea in writing the TL would be to reduce the "ASBishness" as much as possible. I myself intend to explain the crazy high percentage of the popular vote garnered by anti-slavery candidates in the pre-ACW era as the result of most if not all of the Southern states having their electors cast votes without holding popular elections.

EDIT: So you didn't like how I assigned the EVs in the infobox for 1876? I guess some people don't appreciate historical irony....

[Evan]

Originally Posted by Nerdlinger

The percentages in the polls here should represent the canonical percentages of the popular vote for each election (and also for the electoral vote from 1789-1800 only). The exact totals and distributions of the electoral vote are just what I made up for the Wikibox so as to give the majority of the EVs to the plurality winner. Those don't necessarily need to be canon, and if you like, you can even throw elections to the House due to a lack of a majority in the EC. However, the winning candidates should still be the winners and the losing candidates the losers (and roughly in the order in which they ended up in the poll results).

Thanks; I've been planning to do that as well. I've been playing with several different theories on how Adams can win 1800 with minimal butterflies from Jay's Vice-Presidency, and I don't think any of them really line up with your map.

[Plumber]

Actually this series isn't nearly as ASB due to the Adamses. John Adams outlaws slavery in Louisiana. John Quincy Adams opposes universal white male suffrage, which becomes a rallying cry of the Liberty Party, along with Manifest Destiny (indeed, Texas was annexed partially to abolish slavery by the *neocon Liberty Party). Southern states restrict the popular vote due to the Liberty Party's stance on slavery, which by this point is only in the Deep South. Smith tries to set up a slave revolt secretly, is impeached, slavery comes back in the Upper South as a backlash, and Winfield Scott is voted the new President by the House (no Tyler precedent). But the nation has become sharply divided over the trial of Smith for treason, and what would become the Great War begins after Scott is elected due to Smith being found innocent. The elderly Scott leaves the Presidency to his newly formed Republican Party, which supports the Union forever! However he is displeased by the radical candidate that follows, who bungles the war with incompetence. The Union is near death when Lord Palmerston's government issues a surprise attack on the United States shortly before the 1860 election. President Lincoln is more adept with foreign relations, enough to get support from Russia and Prussia. His white peace proposal is enough to collapse Palmerston's government shortly after Prussia and Russia defeat Austria and France on the continent, in time for the 1864 election. After his death, President Seward (Scott precedent) sees the end of the Civil War (1855-1865) and begins Reconstruction, which is successfully completed by Grant. With mandatory voting ensuring the Democrats' attempt at Redemption fails miserably, a biracial coalition of Greenbacks take the presidency in 1876...

After President Debs' passing in 1924 on his speaking tour to abolish the Senate, his VP encourages the House to vote La Follette as Debs' successor, knowing Fighting Bob has the charisma to make Debs' dying quest a reality. When La Follette dies shortly after election, his VP, Burton K. Wheeler, is the first Democratic POTUS, and consolidates the Progressives and rightist Socialists into the Democratic Party. Socialist and Democrat Al Smith (remember, NY has electoral fusion) is elected President, but does not run again despite implementing the foundation for what would become the New Deal...

...defeating President Humphrey over Vietnam in the primary, McGovern narrowly defeats Governor Nixon of California due to scandal over his reelection in 1970. McGovern sees the House turn Republican for the first time since 1946, and Speaker Ford is elected President, with McGovern's tacit support (he didn't forgive Carter for beating him in the primary). Carter wins four years later against CA Governor Ronald Reagan (1974-1986), but is shot by J. Hinckley, Jr. President Mondale is succeeded by his VP Dulakis (Ferraro resigning over tax problems), who himself is primaried by the centrist Bill Clinton. Clinton is popular, though Republicans control Congress throughout his term, he is reelected but has little domestic power.

...Speaker Gingrich, in an abuse of the Scott Precedent, defeats the nomination of VP Lieberman as POTUS following the death of Gore in the July 4th attacks. Lieberman was opposed by the Green Party, but it was customary for the two main parties to respect the VP becoming POTUS under the Scott Precedent. Gingrich's blatant lunge for the Presidency fails when moderate Republicans, all Democrats, and the Greens support John Kerry to fight the War on Butterflies.

[Van555]

Originally Posted by Plumber

Actually this series isn't nearly as ASB due to the Adamses. John Adams outlaws slavery in Louisiana. John Quincy Adams opposes universal white male suffrage, which becomes a rallying cry of the Liberty Party, along with Manifest Destiny (indeed, Texas was annexed partially to abolish slavery by the *neocon Liberty Party). Southern states restrict the popular vote due to the Liberty Party's stance on slavery, which by this point is only in the Deep South. Smith tries to set up a slave revolt secretly, is impeached, slavery comes back in the Upper South as a backlash, and Winfield Scott is voted the new President by the House (no Tyler precedent). But the nation has become sharply divided over the trial of Smith for treason, and what would become the Great War begins after Scott is elected due to Smith being found innocent. The elderly Scott leaves the Presidency to his newly formed Republican Party, which supports the Union forever! However he is displeased by the radical candidate that follows, who bungles the war with incompetence. The Union is near death when Lord Palmerston's government issues a surprise attack on the United States shortly before the 1860 election. President Lincoln is more adept with foreign relations, enough to get support from Russia and Prussia. His white peace proposal is enough to collapse Palmerston's government shortly after Prussia and Russia defeat Austria and France on the continent, in time for the 1864 election. After his death, President Seward (Scott precedent) sees the end of the Civil War (1855-1865) and begins Reconstruction, which is successfully completed by Grant. With mandatory voting ensuring the Democrats' attempt at Redemption fails miserably, a biracial coalition of Greenbacks take the presidency in 1876...

After President Debs' passing in 1924 on his speaking tour to abolish the Senate, his VP encourages the House to vote La Follette as Debs' successor, knowing Fighting Bob has the charisma to make Debs' dying quest a reality. When La Follette dies shortly after election, his VP, Burton K. Wheeler, is the first Democratic POTUS, and consolidates the Progressives and rightist Socialists into the Democratic Party. Socialist and Democrat Al Smith (remember, NY has electoral fusion) is elected President, but does not run again despite implementing the foundation for what would become the New Deal...

...defeating President Humphrey over Vietnam in the primary, McGovern narrowly defeats Governor Nixon of California due to scandal over his reelection in 1970. McGovern sees the House turn Republican for the first time since 1946, and Speaker Ford is elected President, with McGovern's tacit support (he didn't forgive Carter for beating him in the primary). Carter wins four years later against CA Governor Ronald Reagan (1974-1986), but is shot by J. Hinckley, Jr. President Mondale is succeeded by his VP Dulakis (Ferraro resigning over tax problems), who himself is primaried by the centrist Bill Clinton. Clinton is popular, though Republicans control Congress throughout his term, he is reelected but has little domestic power.

...Speaker Gingrich, in an abuse of the Scott Precedent, defeats the nomination of VP Lieberman as POTUS following the death of Gore in the July 4th attacks. Lieberman was opposed by the Green Party, but it was customary for the two main parties to respect the VP becoming POTUS under the Scott Precedent. Gingrich's blatant lunge for the Presidency fails when moderate Republicans, all Democrats, and the Greens support John Kerry to fight the War on Butterflies.

It's Beautiful!

[Nerdlinger]

Here's a fun fact: Cooper will be 90 years old by the time he leaves office on March 4, 1881. That's pretty damn old.

[Turquoise Blue]

Originally Posted by Nerdlinger

Here's a fun fact: Cooper will be 90 years old by the time he leaves office on March 4, 1881. That's pretty damn old.

Oldest serving President, in either OTL or ATL. We just broke a record...

[Plumber]

Originally Posted by Nerdlinger

Here's a fun fact: Cooper will be 90 years old by the time he leaves office on March 4, 1881. That's pretty damn old.

Christ, he beat Adenauer. Why, he was born before Polk and Buchanan in dear old 1791! Before Birney and Gerrit Smith and everyone after Winfield Scott. Why, he's older than all the Presidents since 1840 except the two Whigs, Clay and Scott. Is there any democratic head of government who was older?

Originally Posted by Van555

It's Beautiful!

I do try. Thank you.

[Nerdlinger]

Originally Posted by Turquoise Blue

Oldest serving President, in either OTL or ATL. We just broke a record...

Wikipedia also has this to say:

At the age of 85 years, Cooper is the oldest person ever nominated by any political party for President of the United States.

[JSmith]

Originally Posted by Van555

It's Beautiful!

Indeed.Do you have anything else written so far?

[Nerdlinger]

Originally Posted by Plumber

I do try. Thank you.

While interesting, it is stretching things a bit too much. If you were interested in writing a TL based on this project as part of my intended challenge, I would ask that you keep all the candidates the same -- that includes running mates -- and that each candidate serves their time in office as indicated in the main list of presidents and VPs.

[Plumber]

Originally Posted by JSmith

Indeed.Do you have anything else written so far?

No, I did that half-awake on my phone last night. There is a part I brainstormed for the start though.

Jefferson pledges to serve one term, to differentiate himself from "King John" but the second Adams breaks that tradition to honor his (still unpopular at the time) father. Jackson cries foul, and pledges to uphold the one-term tradition. When running for office of his own, Clay promises to reinstate the tradition in order to gain votes from the Jacksonites. This is not necessary; Jackson's support for slavery alienated him from the Upper South by 1832, after Virginia and his own Tennessee had abolished it. He receives electoral votes from the Deep South, but little in the popular vote. This causes him to champion the popular vote less. The popular vote crowd coalesces around the Liberty Party, but the Whigs, knowing Birney's opposition to female suffrage, propose that universal (white, of course) suffrage needs to happen regardless of gender. Birney vetoes this, but it unexpectedly nearly passes during Clay's second (technically fulfilling Jefferson's pledge because it's nonconsecutive) term due to the efforst of Senator Smith, who gets it through when he's POTUS.

Originally Posted by Nerdlinger

While interesting, it is stretching things a bit too much. If you were interested in writing a TL based on this project as part of my intended challenge, I would ask that you keep all the candidates the same -- that includes running mates -- and that each candidate serves their time in office as indicated in the main list of presidents and VPs.

OK. Shouldn't be too hard... Smith is not impeached, which leads to sectional crisis. Scott is elected as a unity candidate, similar to Clay in '44. The Civil War ends under Lincoln, and Reconstruction proceeds under Congress over Johnson's will. Grant is the Hero of Reconstruction. Debs does not die in office, being the only one in 100 years to avoid Lincoln's Curse. Carter is as popular in 1984 as Reagan was in 1983, and does not run for reelection. Mondale, desperate to win, pledges to serve one term, not knowing that the economy will recover enough to give him a decent margin anyways. Al Gore does not seek another term of his own after a scandal (perhaps the Chinese campaign one comes out here), and John Kerry is too unpopular to win in 2008 so he doesn't try. Barack Obama comes out of nowhere to win an upset victory.

The Democratic Party is basically Canada's Liberal Party, whatever politics suit the day. And the Republicans are France's Socialists, too inept to win even when they should. However, since Debs abolished the Senate, Republicans have controlled the House in a form of cohabitation from time to time, so the United States certainly isn't a one-party state.

[Nerdlinger]

Originally Posted by Plumber

No, I did that half-awake on my phone last night.


OK. Shouldn't be too hard... Smith is not impeached, which leads to sectional crisis. Scott is elected as a unity candidate, similar to Clay in '44. The Civil War ends under Lincoln, and Reconstruction proceeds under Congress over Johnson's will. Grant is the Hero of Reconstruction. Debs does not die in office, being the only one in 100 years to avoid Lincoln's Curse. Carter is as popular in 1984 as Reagan was in 1983, and does not run for reelection. Mondale, desperate to win, pledges to serve one term, not knowing that the economy will recover enough to give him a decent margin anyways. Al Gore does not seek another term of his own after a scandal (perhaps the Chinese campaign one comes out here), and John Kerry is too unpopular to win in 2008 so he doesn't try. Barack Obama comes out of nowhere to win an upset victory.

The Democratic Party is basically Canada's Liberal Party, whatever politics suit the day. And the Republicans are France's Socialists, too inept to win even when they should. However, since Debs abolished the Senate, Republicans have controlled the House in a form of cohabitation from time to time, so the United States certainly isn't a one-party state.

You also wouldn't be able to abolish the Senate, since the EC system must remain the same as in OTL. Also, the platforms of the parties and of each candidate should be pretty much the same as in OTL -- otherwise, participants in the polls here would have voted for candidates who had different political platforms than the ones who they thought they were voting for. And one more thing -- the Civil War really should occur on schedule, mainly because the Southern states would be absent from only one election, in 1864 (plus a few states in 1868 which had yet to rejoin the Union).

[Plumber]

Originally Posted by Nerdlinger

You also wouldn't be able to abolish the Senate, since the EC system must remain the same as in OTL. Also, the platforms of the parties and of each candidate should be pretty much the same as in OTL -- otherwise, participants in the polls here would have voted for candidates who had different political platforms than the ones who they thought they were voting for. And one more thing -- the Civil War really should occur on schedule, mainly because the Southern states would be absent from only one election, in 1864 (plus a few states in 1868 which had yet to rejoin the Union).

The EC system could stay the same with an Amendment abolishing the Senate. The two electors just don't mean yet anymore. The Senate could stay, but I doubt the Socialists will have any of it.

Hmm, well then the Civil War can start out as a guerilla thing, but actual secession doesn't happen until 1860? At first the South tries to take over the nation than secede maybe.

[Elessar267]

Originally Posted by Plumber

The EC system could stay the same with an Amendment abolishing the Senate. The two electors just don't mean yet anymore. The Senate could stay, but I doubt the Socialists will have any of it.

Hmm, well then the Civil War can start out as a guerilla thing, but actual secession doesn't happen until 1860? At first the South tries to take over the nation than secede maybe.

You're going to run into a problem with the Senate - the Senate is one of the two entrenched clauses in the U.S. Constitution (along with the ban on the ban on slave trading until 1808). No state may be deprived of senators without its own consent, so you'd literally need unanimous consent of the states to abolish the Senate.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by Nerdlinger

You also wouldn't be able to abolish the Senate, since the EC system must remain the same as in OTL. Also, the platforms of the parties and of each candidate should be pretty much the same as in OTL -- otherwise, participants in the polls here would have voted for candidates who had different political platforms than the ones who they thought they were voting for. And one more thing -- the Civil War really should occur on schedule, mainly because the Southern states would be absent from only one election, in 1864 (plus a few states in 1868 which had yet to rejoin the Union).

Well, you could abolish the Senate but guarantee each state an extra two EVs to mollify them.

More likely though that the Socialists never quite manage to kill the Senate but progressively weakens it until it's more like a Westminster Upper House.

As for the Civil War, let's say it breaks out mid-way through Fremont's term. Fremont does not run for re-election, instead taking a General's commission to lead from the front. Lincoln instead takes up the mantle. The rebelling states still technically cast votes in 1860, as electors are chosen by loyalist state legislators "in exile" -- mostly for John Bell, who pledges to end the war by standing down from northern belligerence.

Controversially, Lincoln pushes through legislation disenfranchising presidential electors for whom popular ballots were not cast, ending the long-standing practice of southern states choosing their EVs via state legislature, and disenfranchising the ex-Confederacy (then under military government) in 1864.

EDIT:

Originally Posted by Elessar267

You're going to run into a problem with the Senate - the Senate is one of the two entrenched clauses in the U.S. Constitution (along with the ban on the ban on slave trading until 1808). No state may be deprived of senators without its own consent, so you'd literally need unanimous consent of the states to abolish the Senate.

Okay, so after the smaller states dig in their heels, Debs is forced to settle for reducing the Senate's power as much as possible.

[JSmith]

I love the smell of a TL cooking!