The Middle East War of 1997

[Armored Diplomacy]

This is a relatively unknown fact, but in 1997, a veteran Mossad official, Yehuda Gil, was caught as a fraudster. For the past 20 years, he had produced fake intelligence reports from a non-existent mole in Syria, and then pocketed lots of money to "bribe" his source from Mossad's slush fund.

On two separate occasions, he nearly caused war, and he endangered peace talks with Syria. He made the country appear more threatening and belligerent than it actually was. In August 1996, during Israeli-Syrian peace talks, the Syrian Army began movement on Mount Hermon. Gil very nearly sparked a Mideast war when he claimed that Syria was actually planning a ground offensive to recover part of the Golan Heights. Israel, with its preemptive war doctrine, could easily have attacked Syria. Luckily, his reports drew suspicion when they were cross-checked with other intelligence.

On a side note, he did manage to almost ruin the Israeli-Syrian peace talks and sour then mood, because Israel asked the United States and France to stop a possible imminent Syrian attack, and Syria obviously denied it was planning an attack.

What if the report led to Israel lanching a pre-emptive attack on Syria?

[Coiler]

Easy Israeli military victory against the crumbling, politicized Syrian army. The political outcome would be harder to predict, but I doubt it would be good.

[Anaxagoras]

The Israelis would have cleaned the clocks of the Syrians within a few days. The UN would have geared up to condemn Israeli aggression, but the United States would have shielded them with their UNSC veto. In the aftermath, it would become clear that the Israeli preemptive strike had been based on false information, which would humiliate Israel in much the same way as the faulty intelligence leading to the invasion of Iraq humiliated the United States IOTL. You'd also kill off any possible Arab-Israeli peace talks for a long time, as few people in the Arab world would believe that the Israeli attack had been anything other than unilateral and unprovoked aggression.

[Armored Diplomacy]

Originally Posted by Anaxagoras

The Israelis would have cleaned the clocks of the Syrians within a few days. The UN would have geared up to condemn Israeli aggression, but the United States would have shielded them with their UNSC veto. In the aftermath, it would become clear that the Israeli preemptive strike had been based on false information, which would humiliate Israel in much the same way as the faulty intelligence leading to the invasion of Iraq humiliated the United States IOTL. You'd also kill off any possible Arab-Israeli peace talks for a long time, as few people in the Arab world would believe that the Israeli attack had been anything other than unilateral and unprovoked aggression.

Perhaps the fact that the attack was based on faulty intelligence would be concealed? Something might leak out, but the world will never know for certain unless Israel decides to clear it for publication, unlikely for decades at the very least.

Yehuda Gil would probably be in prison for decades, and would have draconian lifetime restrictions on him when released to keep him from blabbing.

[aktarian]

What are Israeli goals? OK, destruction of their air defences and likely some sort of push from Golan to destroy Syrian formations between border and Damascus. Plus action in Lebanon though remember this is a year after "Grapes of Wrath".

Or it could be Israelis do limited action against Syria proper and focus on clearing them from Lebanon, avoiding large cities and in the process destroying Hezbollah. Say massive air attacks against Syria, faking move toward Damascus (or faking true strength), throw several divisions into Lebanon, push into Bekaa to cut those forces from Syria and destroy them to a degree, then signal willingness to talk with syrian pullout from Lebanon being one of the conditions but Israel will withdraw to starting lines (in their own time, as usual).

[Anaxagoras]

Originally Posted by aktarian

What are Israeli goals? OK, destruction of their air defences and likely some sort of push from Golan to destroy Syrian formations between border and Damascus. Plus action in Lebanon though remember this is a year after "Grapes of Wrath".

Conceivably, the Israelis might just obliterate Syrian air defenses then hang back a bit, basically saying "Okay, Assad. . . just try it and see what happens."

[Armored Diplomacy]

Originally Posted by aktarian

Or it could be Israelis do limited action against Syria proper and focus on clearing them from Lebanon, avoiding large cities and in the process destroying Hezbollah. Say massive air attacks against Syria, faking move toward Damascus (or faking true strength), throw several divisions into Lebanon, push into Bekaa to cut those forces from Syria and destroy them to a degree, then signal willingness to talk with syrian pullout from Lebanon being one of the conditions but Israel will withdraw to starting lines (in their own time, as usual).

Unlikely. This would a matter of preempting an imminent attack. There would be no time to plan an adventure in Lebanon to enforce some Israeli interests when the country was potentially threatened with an armored thrust into the Golan, as well as missile attacks on Israeli cities (the Syrians had accumulated a huge missile stockpile to attack Israeli population centers in the event of war as a counter to Israel's military superiority).

The first attacks would have likely been against Syrian airfields and air defenses. The Syrian Air Force would be devastated on the first day, and Israeli planes would fly with virtual impunity over Syrian airspace.

The IAF would also attack Syria's large missile stocks. A significant number of missiles and launchers would probably survive such an attack, and they would be lobbed at Israel, which would lead the IAF to go in and strike them, playing the kind of cat-and-mouse game it did with Hezbollah in 2006, meaning some successes, but a lot of missiles still get through. The missile fire will probably wear off as crews are killed, launchers and missiles are destroyed, and missiles are spent.

An IAF attack would devastate the Syrian 14th Division, the unit which was conducting those exercises near Mount Hermon. Other Syrian forces near the Golan would probably also be attacked and devastated.

IDF ground forces in the Golan Heights would be on maximum alert and fully ready for action. Reinforcements would be rushed to the area.

Assad would very likely order an attack on the Golan Heights. The attack would quickly materialize, as Syria keeps 75% of its forces near the Golan, and would be devastated. The combination of fierce resistance from defending units superior in training and equipment, and attacks by attack helicopters and fighter jets would prove devastating. The Syrians would lose a lot of their heavy equipment on the Golan.

The Israeli Navy would quickly establish a blockade of the Syrian coastline. If the Syrian Navy comes out and challenges it, it will be crushed in a repeat of the Battle of Latakia.

The war will last at the most several days, until a cease-fire is imposed. However, if the Syrians do go ahead and attack, Israel will not agree to a ceasefire until the last Syrian forces have been pushed from the Golan Heights. However, it is only a matter of time before Syria begins suing for peace.

That's just my take on it.