Prince Henry of Prussia: The Rise of U-Boat.

[Detlef]

Originally Posted by Monty Burns

Even if the Germans concentrate on the Atlantic after the war - which is reasonable given their conquests there - they'll want to build up a sizeable naval presence in the Indian ocean, and naturally Tanganjika is the place of choice. They'll try something with Sansibar to get feet on the ground before the war ends.

Aside from that, naval bases may be leased from South Africa after the war. And while the British will have an interest in keeping the Germans out of the Indian ocean and the Pacific, the French will have more direct interests at home and might give up territories there to establish German naval outposts. In the Indian ocean, that encompasses Madagascar and Djibouti - very nice bases.

Well. I still remembered our discussion about a possible alliance with the Netherlands after the war.
Without a major secure German naval base in Eastern Africa (BlondieBC already outlined the requirements for that) the Dutch better stay neutral.
Naval outposts in Madagascar, Djibouti or in the Pacific Ocean might be nice. But without a first-class naval base in German East Africa - to back them up - and not potentially blockaded by British owned islands off the coast of German East Africa, all these outposts are Tsingtao revisited.
At least in my opinion?

[wietze]

Originally Posted by BlondieBC

Yes, I view it as a Entente loss. To me, it looked like a battle the Entente had to fight, so I took what was in theater under the overall commander, and wrote a battle. If the UK loses the Suez in addition to the South Pacific, they would starve in the winter of 1916/17. The Entente mostly lost predreads that are within a decade of leaving service, and converted cruiser hulls that are fairly easy to replace.

What did you think of the overall flow of the battle? It is not easy to find battles to model a Red Sea battle with.

battle looks ok to me, the confusion in the communication that the german experience looks very plausible, especially given how bad long distance comms were at the time.
I thought at first under those losses they would have broken off the battle, but the make or break aspect explains that.

still those total losses the entente encountered are massive, and even though this was a make or break battle, they will need several big wins else they start bleeding again. Even though the losses were mainly older ships or converted older ships in this battle it will mean at least 1 year to replace those ships (probably more).
The amounts of aircraft seem high, but that might be because i am unfamiliar with the ww1 statistics on losses (from what i looked up the entente loss in aircraft in this battle is 2% of the entire war loss, and considering the area they would be mainly british.) (british total frontline aircraft in 1918 was 3300, french 4500, so 3000 entente planes would be almost 50% of their available planes, seems a tad high).
my thought is that the french would not send that much planes, and so the british would be the one supplying the most planes. When i take their 1918 total of 3300 as a guide (aircraft production in 1917 was 1150 per month for both uk and fr)(makes you realise how horrendous high attrition was though). Add to this that early 1917 in otl was very bloody for entente planes.

i used this as source http://www.theaerodrome.com/aircraft/statistics.php

[BlondieBC]

Originally Posted by wietze

still those total losses the entente encountered are massive, and even though this was a make or break battle, they will need several big wins else they start bleeding again. Even though the losses were mainly older ships or converted older ships in this battle it will mean at least 1 year to replace those ships (probably more).
The amounts of aircraft seem high, but that might be because i am unfamiliar with the ww1 statistics on losses (from what i looked up the entente loss in aircraft in this battle is 2% of the entire war loss, and considering the area they would be mainly british.) (british total frontline aircraft in 1918 was 3300, french 4500, so 3000 entente planes would be almost 50% of their available planes, seems a tad high).
my thought is that the french would not send that much planes, and so the british would be the one supplying the most planes. When i take their 1918 total of 3300 as a guide (aircraft production in 1917 was 1150 per month for both uk and fr)(makes you realise how horrendous high attrition was though). Add to this that early 1917 in otl was very bloody for entente planes.

i used this as source http://www.theaerodrome.com/aircraft/statistics.php

The UK is living on less than 60% of the imports compared to OTL, so there are no additional capital ships under construction. The ship yards are focusing on carrier conversions, long range escorts, and merchant ships. While the TL was intended to focus mainly on the merchant war, I have reached a situation where the Germans have parity in the North Sea. It is ironic that by focusing on the merchant warfare and ignoring Mahan, I will likely create on Mahan-like battle that can be used as an example for Mahanist in the ATL. In a war as complex as WW1, a person can find support for most correct and incorrect military theories.

As to size of the Air Force, I decided to move the entire RNAS to the Middle East Command, and France will have to cover the Western Europe Theater.

The losses could easily be high, because I could not find a comparable WW1 or interwar battle (1920's) to use as a model. I saw several factors making the losses exceptionally high.

1) For the supporting Entente Air at Duba, the flew from the Southern Sinai, and I figured the open water turned a lot of damage planes into lost planes.

2) In Duba, it was a max effort, and both sides had orders not to retreat. The Entente planes spend a lot of time over the 3 corps of troops in the area and the secondary guns support the coastal artillery.

3) Mecca was recently captured by the UK, so I added a religious element. Both the Ottoman leaders and pilots are willing to press the "revenge" attack home.

4) The British had developed CLAA. Now these are not as good as the WW2 ships by the USA, but it seem making a ship would be practical. Take one of the many older cruisers the UK has, strip off the big guns, and load up with as many smaller artillery, medium machine guns, and heavy machine guns as can fit. They would be sailing very close to the carrier, compared to WW2 separation.

5) The final factor was the poor performance of the WW1 airplanes compared to WW2. The torpedo bombers are probably in the 50-100 mph range, flying straight and level. The torpedoes would be launched from very, very close range (100's of feet). This looked like a suicide run to me. The bombers are not dive bombers, but level bombers flying the length of the carriers. Again, very low, very slow. The fighters were trapped by the 10 KG bombs. After the Entente fighters are cleared from the sky, they would come in very close to the ships and drop a handful of 10KG bombs. It was a death ride.

I can't really say these results are correct due to lack of comparable WW1 data, but they seem within the range of possibility to me. Neither side held anything in reserve, both had reasons to be very aggressive to fight, both viewed it as the decisive battle.

[wietze]

that explains it, it indicates how important and how much make or break it is if they use 25% of their yearproduction worth of planes, it pretty much is the entente naval equivalent of a banzai charge.
If there are no ships being new built at this moment the situation is even more dire for the entente than i thought. although the older ships are less important, they do supply duties at the less high intensity areas. No ships available for those areas means the CP will be able to much more effectively eat away ententente shipping capabilities (merchant raiders and such). It also means german superiority at the seas will only grow from now on.

As for the religious element, i am not certain if the ottomans would react that strongly to the loss of mecca, the ottoman empire was more secular than current turkey is my impression. However if the british did capture mecca, wondering if they would be stupid enough to let non-muslim soldier enter the city, because that would also cause them a lot of trouble in west-india (later pakistan)

[BlondieBC]

Originally Posted by wietze

As for the religious element, i am not certain if the ottomans would react that strongly to the loss of mecca, the ottoman empire was more secular than current turkey is my impression. However if the british did capture mecca, wondering if they would be stupid enough to let non-muslim soldier enter the city, because that would also cause them a lot of trouble in west-india (later pakistan)

I decided yes for my TL, but it could be argued either way. It was a matter of no Muslim units in theater, and based on the Balfour declaration, I would say the UK could be quite tone def on religion. Also, while I probably did not put it in the TL, Lawrence of Arabia died to Ottoman forces early in the war. He was a risk taker, and I figured with more Ottoman forces, he took one too many risks.

[wietze]

Originally Posted by BlondieBC

I decided yes for my TL, but it could be argued either way. It was a matter of no Muslim units in theater, and based on the Balfour declaration, I would say the UK could be quite tone def on religion. Also, while I probably did not put it in the TL, Lawrence of Arabia died to Ottoman forces early in the war. He was a risk taker, and I figured with more Ottoman forces, he took one too many risks.

then you will be able to write quite a few 'interesting' stories about west-india, or even india as a whole. Because i could easily see this turning in a revolt.
I agree on the lawrence thing, with butterflies flying, he could have easily walked in a situation that got him killed.

[Adler17]

With Lawrence dead and the British kuffar there is a great chance that Max v. Oppenheim can persuade the Arabs to make a Djihad against the British.

Adler

[BlondieBC]

Attached is the map of the Congo campaign. I had to switch colors used from the previous maps.

Orange = Germans
Green = Entente.

Box = Division
Star = Regiment.

[BlondieBC]

Originally Posted by wietze

then you will be able to write quite a few 'interesting' stories about west-india, or even india as a whole. Because i could easily see this turning in a revolt.
I agree on the lawrence thing, with butterflies flying, he could have easily walked in a situation that got him killed.

Once I get to the end of the war, I am again going to focus on the Naval part. The TL is a series of events that I found interesting to research, tied together by WW1. The last event will be based on U-boat technology being more advance in the ATL compared to surface technology. I want to look at the question of either,

"What happens when 1950 submarine technology fights 1940 surface fleets?"

Or "What happens when WW2 submarines fight 1930 surface fleets?"

I will also go into the development of Africa, which is quite interesting.

Originally Posted by Adler17

With Lawrence dead and the British kuffar there is a great chance that Max v. Oppenheim can persuade the Arabs to make a Djihad against the British.

Adler

I do see a Jihad, but I don't see how it will have a big impact over the next year. What were your ideas?

[Adler17]

Oppenheim tried to pay the Arabs to make a Jihad. Indeed they took the British money as well. And were later betrayed. TTL Lawrence is dead and the British have taken Mecca. So an uprising of the Muslims may happen:

- uprisings in the French colonies, where they also fight French colonialism

- Iran joining the CP

- India may see massive revolts as well

- Colonial forces in Africa from India might desert

This MAY happen.

Adler

[Josephus]

Considering the trouble the British got into because of the rumour that they were using pork grease in their cartridges some 60 years earlier, actually defiling Mecca is gotta make their Islamic colonies explode. At least there will be acts of sabotage, riots and murders of administrators and soldiers on a large scale, as the news spread.

[BlondieBC]

February 1: Von Schultze cancels operation Albion, and authorizes the High Seas Fleet to seek a decisive battle against the Grand Fleet after the Russian Fleet is neutralized.

(WA) February 2: The 1st WA Marine Division begins an unopposed landing near Cabinda which is about 20 miles north of Banana. The Congo Corp (1st-4th WA Divisions) begin a two division attack down the Congo.

Kaiser Wilhelm nominated for Nobel Peace Prize.

Riots continue in Lahore. British forces leave the city.

(WA)February 5: The Entente commander in the Congo orders his troops to retreat into the Jungle and begin guerrilla and harassment operations.

February 6: General Strike in Ireland over food shortages.

February 7: Two Irish Regiments surrender to Germans in France.

Republic of Ireland declared. Ten UM class U-boats and 30 Ocean going U-boats begin unloading a regiment of the Free Irish Army in western Ireland.

In an emergency meeting of the British cabinet, the army tells the cabinet that there are no available units that can be transferred to Ireland without risking a collapse of the Western Front in France. The British cabinet debates accepting the German cease fire, and decides to continue the war.

February 8: All Irish regiments order out of the line and disarmed.

A freighter, SS Patrick, loaded with food departs Boston for Limerick following the German safe lane given to the new Irish government.

(WA) February 9: Banana falls to 1st Marine.

Overnight 4 Zeppelins, each carry 2 wire-guided glide bombs, approach the Gangut class ships in dock. Using aircars hanging below the clouds at 2500 feet, the Zeppelins launch two bombs at the aft of each dreadnought. The Gangut is missed by both bombs, the Pretropavlovsk is hit by 1 bomb, the Sevastopol by two bombs, and the Poltava is hit by two bombs. Due to the high angle of attack, each bomb penetrates deep into the ships engineering spaces before exploding, and three of the ships are crippled until major drydock work can be completed.

Von Schultze orders half the land forces to be used in Operation Albion to be readied in Belgium for an attack on England and the other half to be readied in Hamburg.

Falkenhayn orders the Spring Offensive scheduled to be launched in late March and early April to be launched in 7 Days.

February 10: Germans conduct heavy bombing raid on Calais.

The Kaiser re-extends his peace offer through the Swiss and the Vatican.

In another meeting of the English Cabinet, the leaders again discuss the accepting the cease fire after learning that the British have lost control of Ireland except for Belfast. They agree to discuss with the French and Russian ambassadors about a new peace offer to the Central Powers.

February 11: Six German U-boats begin to shadow the SS Patrick.

February 14: The Tsar is informed of an imminent attack from the Black Sea to the Baltic.

February 16: A half day artillery barrage begins from the Black Sea to the Baltic, followed by an infantry assault. Gains are between 500 and 8000 yards in most locations, excluding Riga. In Riga as had been long planned, the Polish Corps holding the line switched sides and allowed German units to attack through their positions into the rear. By nightfall, the Russian lines from Riga to the Black Sea were collapsing.

February 17: Room 40 decodes German diplomatic messages promising an amphibious assault in the British Isles combined with the High Seas Fleet seeking a decisive battle. The British cabinet considers this intel overnight, and decides that the UK will need to seek a favorable peace deal.

February 18: Russia and France are informed of the UK positions.

Later that day, the Tsar contacts the Germans and ask for a cease fire in 48 hours.

February 19: The SS Patrick arrives in Limerick.

February 20: All quite on the Eastern Front. The average gain from the summer offensive is under 10 miles except near Riga where the gain is up to 35 miles in locations.

France and England also accept the ceasefire on land and sea.

(WA) February 22: The 4th WA division begins to replace the 1st WA Marine Division. Major General Douala-Bell orders the utilization of 250,000 Congolese porters to begin building roads and transporting goods towards German East Africa.

The Entente withdraw from Mecca.

For the war, a little under 15 million tons of Entente merchant shipping was sunk, resulting in a shrinkage of the Entente merchant marine by about 10 million tons. The CP lost 62 U-boats, and had about 300 U-boats in service.

Lost Dreadnoughts:

UK - 6; French - 2, Japan - 1, Germany - 1

Battlecruisers: UK -2

Pre-dreadnoughts: UK- 24, French - 2, A-H - 3

[Richter von Manthofen]

"Surprised and shocked"

Its over! - that can't be...

Disbelieve!

NOOOOOOOOO!



But I hope the TL will be continued...

Rule GErmania - Germania rules the seas...

[Monty Burns]

Wow, that was really fast! I had expected that the Russians will fall as IOTL and that, together with mounting problems, would lead the western allies to accept a cease fire! We hadn't even a revolution in Russia!

But then this is only an armistice. If they open the mutual blockades, the Allies should profit much more of it and gain in relative strength compared to the Germans. That might lead to them reopening the war after negotiations fail?

At least in the East Germany will gain less than I thought.

[Richter von Manthofen]

I believe the REVOLUTION will happen - at least the "White" part of it. a mere cease fire does not butterfly away the Russian internal problems.

Germany holds Lithuania and Latvia. estland might break away or be traded.

Finland? - hope there will be an independant Finland.

I assume the RED revolutuion is butterflied away or at least not strong enough to suceed.

Germany might settle on a curtain of independent states between itself and Russia. Poland might get greedy

If the czar/Lwow Governemnt plays its cards well Romania might even be kept at pre war borders - Austria also should be content on holding the pre war frontier (maybe a bit further east.

If the Entente negotiates as one bloch this peace might be less harsh that Brest Litowsk of OTL...

[Monty Burns]

Originally Posted by Richter von Manthofen

If the Entente negotiates as one bloch this peace might be less harsh that Brest Litowsk of OTL...

Very true.

If they negotiate to hard, though, the Germans might just restart the war, but mainly act in Russia. They won't do better in the next attack and then the Russians will accept a separate peace. Now if Britain is willing to negotiate now, they'll be even more once Germany has an armistice with Russia in place and ships its troops west.

Anyway, we have to wait how willing the Allies are to accept German proposals.

[BlondieBC]

Originally Posted by Richter von Manthofen

"Surprised and shocked"

Its over! - that can't be...

Disbelieve!

NOOOOOOOOO!



But I hope the TL will be continued...

Rule GErmania - Germania rules the seas...

I was too. I realized how it was going to end about 15 minutes before it ended, I had to delete a couple of battles that were already written, not to mention a few pages of notes and hours of research on the Great attack to the east. It was supposed to end in late summer, but when I looked at only 35% of needed shipping levels, winter, combined with no UK reserves, it just fell apart. The Polish betrayal had been planned for many months, but the Irish part was just a butterfly. After the initial POD, I have tried to follow the story where it went. IOTL, A-H fell apart in no more than 2 months. Tsar ended in under a month. Germany went from on offensive and winning on French soil to accepting terms in just a few months.

I though of the Lenin quote "There are decades where weeks happen, and weeks where decades happen". The entente was like a Jinga game, where one block after another was lost, and it just happened that Ireland was the last peace that cause it to fall. Does the end fell reasonable to you?

BTW, you guys would have loved my plan to the east, I was copying Gettysburg. Romanian troops sucked, and it was to be a diversion attack about March 15. Just to overstretch Russian Logistics. The German attack (Riga) had been worked on for months. This was to happen about April 1, again to try to get the Tsar to move reserves to the flank. Then mid march, the Poles and Austrians would launch the main attack, hopefully on second rate troops with few reserves. The goal was to move the Russians back 150-200 miles over the summer. Repeat in 1918 if needed.

I do plan to do the TL, I have one more major point I want to work through. An Interwar naval race where one side funds submarines seriously, combined with at least a brief but important followup naval war. Right now, I favor the Japanese going similar to OTL on the Navy, the UK doing big with the N3 and G3 and lots of CLAA, and Germany going much more smaller ship ideas.

[BlondieBC]

Originally Posted by Monty Burns

Wow, that was really fast! I had expected that the Russians will fall as IOTL and that, together with mounting problems, would lead the western allies to accept a cease fire! We hadn't even a revolution in Russia!

But then this is only an armistice. If they open the mutual blockades, the Allies should profit much more of it and gain in relative strength compared to the Germans. That might lead to them reopening the war after negotiations fail?

At least in the East Germany will gain less than I thought.

Well, when looking through why countries fall apart, It seems like food was the biggest issue, so this moved the testing for failure into the winter months. Ireland failed not because the food was worse the St. Petersburg in absolute terms, but because the Irish were a non-loyal population where the occupation troops had been pulled out. If St. Petersburg had either not had garrison troops (12,000) or it had been populated by a disloyal minority (say Muslims), the revolt would have happened sooner IOTL.

From a story writing perspective, it would have been more fun to write a longer end, but that was not how WW1 was. Almost all sides prevented elections which would have allowed a outlet for discontent. They ignored internal dissent indication. Imposed martial law or something similar (censoring all mail, censoring all media, very broad definitions of helping the enemy). It is the difference in a open pot of water on a stove where the steam relieves the pressure and a pressure cooker heated until it explodes.

The Tsar was who really ended the war. It was a combination of a collapsing Riga front and the UK looking like it would try to leave the war that made him move rapidly. After all, the UK/Russia had not had great relations over the previous few generations, so there was not the long term trust needed to weather the storm.

Yes the blockades are open. And troops and supplies are rapidly moving along, so all sides will have to consider that too harsh a terms can result in the resumption of war and that resuming war also risk internal collapse. It will be hard for either block to resume the war. If you think one side is likely to chose resuming war, post a comment.

It is also important to note that Ireland is rapidly receiving arms, and the Germans are sending the Irish POW back to Ireland with weapons. And that there would be limited food world wide to fill the orders coming in from all sides, since it is winter in the northern hemisphere.

Originally Posted by Richter von Manthofen

I believe the REVOLUTION will happen - at least the "White" part of it. a mere cease fire does not butterfly away the Russian internal problems.

Germany holds Lithuania and Latvia. estland might break away or be traded.

Finland? - hope there will be an independant Finland.

I assume the RED revolutuion is butterflied away or at least not strong enough to suceed.

Germany might settle on a curtain of independent states between itself and Russia. Poland might get greedy

If the czar/Lwow Governemnt plays its cards well Romania might even be kept at pre war borders - Austria also should be content on holding the pre war frontier (maybe a bit further east.

If the Entente negotiates as one bloch this peace might be less harsh that Brest Litowsk of OTL...

Finland is OTL pace, so look up its status in Feb 1917. Nothing done prevents St. Petersburg from running out of food in a few weeks, and the Tsar is not proactive enough to head out. I have this part written, it is actually quite easy.

Yes, communism as we know it becomes a foot note in history. DWBI: Lenin goes to Russia and makes it the Soviet Union? Answer: ASB ASB

I don't see how the CP can impose a harsh peace on Russia. Now France is another matter, and the UK will really, really not like the Kaiser terms for Belgium. Sometimes you get what you say you want, and you hate it.

I have the broad outlines, and I will wait a few days for comments, then start writing the peace deal followed by post war summary reports followed by the often too ignored naval issues.

[TradeMachine]

I think that soon after The Great war a Bulgarian vs Greece war will start for the province of Macedonia and soon the OE will join on the side of its formal ally.

[Richter von Manthofen]

IMHO the end was totally logical - no need to repeat whay you said.

For the future...


I assume the US will push for the payment of the war debts - which could push UK into hyperinflation. This might prevent naval (up) armament.

Germany is probably NOT in the position to force a naval limitation n UK (if germany wants peace - should be a no go for US)

But I think Germany would welcome a naval treaty that limits uparmament (Maybe the Berlin naval Conference of 1921 )

UK might build its Admiral Battlecruisers and a bunch of CVs

US will want its navy second to none.

Germany might focus on submarines + Cruisers for its Empire, but should not neglect BBs and CVs. - Germany is a global power and needs a strong navy for power projection.

A naval war could break out in the Pacific - Japan vs US and UK or even Japan UK vs US (us might look at Canada, Australia and NZ as potential new States)

Not sure, but I think Germany will get back Samoa, + kaiser Wilhelm Land - what happened to the Islands in your timeline?)

Seems India will break free sooner this TL - MAybe Japan supports Indian uprising which leads to war in the Indian Ocean...

Just throwing around silly thoughts ...