Most virulent possible plague

[tom]

One of the tropes I am fascinated by is a super-virulent pandemic. I have posted several threads on this, and always seem to get the response that my plague is ASB. I am aware of the fact that if a disease is too lethal, it will kill its carrier before spreading, and that some people are out of the pool of communicability (hermits, etc.) and that genetic variability means no one pathogen can infect everybody, but I don't know enough about it to fine-tune my doomsday bug to still be plausible. What level of lethality would be plausible?

[tom]

Only 4 people have voted on this thread, and one of them was me (I picked 25%, because I know, from the Black Death, that that is possible). One voted for 99%.
If you do not vote or comment, particularly after that 99% vote, you forfeit all right to call my future super-pandemic/super-panzootic threads ASB :-)

[MNP]

Originally Posted by tom

Only 4 people have voted on this thread, and one of them was me (I picked 25%, because I know, from the Black Death, that that is possible). One voted for 99%.
If you do not vote or comment, particularly after that 99% vote, you forfeit all right to call my future super-pandemic/super-panzootic threads ASB :-)

I went 99%. Once again, recourse to the virgin soil epidemic that hit the Indians. Not all Indians everywhere were wiped out, but certain groups were. 95%, 98% kill rates happened. It's a short step from 98% to 99%. There were also multiple diseases but sometimes it was waves of the same disease which is now uncommon for plague.

So again, looking at the historical possibility the most virulent plague possible could essentially exterminate the human race. I don't think that high is likely in the current world, but it's not impossible--and don't forget the possibility it could be a man-made plague.

[tom]

2 more 25%s, 2 more 99%s.
A justification was given for 99%, would someone give one for 25% (I was deliberately being more conservative than I think would be reality)?

[EdM]

I picked 25%, remembering that the plague killed off somewhere around 1/3 of Europe's population, and 25% is the closest.

[The Red]

Originally Posted by tom

2 more 25%s, 2 more 99%s.
A justification was given for 99%, would someone give one for 25% (I was deliberately being more conservative than I think would be reality)?

I voted 99% (there wasn't a 100% option) but I suppose the argument could be made that no virus is so powerful that it can't be stopped by well-funded research and modern containment methods.

[SargentHawk]

i voted 75% as with the mexican flu, and black plague, they both had an outragious death toll in their regions of origin, and wherever they spread. However, in the modern era, with the mass communiction, travel, and contact that each human has with another, i feel it is safe to assume it could raise drastically, and leaving only 25% of the human race would be completely demolishing to modern soceity, and with that much death and then lack of resources there would be wars raged over peace, resources etc. that could in all serioussness wipe out the remaining 25%.

[Lord Grattan]

What you say SargentHawk does ring true. However, given that we have (generally speaking) better sanitation, personal hygiene practices, medicine, medical care, medical research, disease protection protocols, and greater knowledge about how diseases are spread, 75% sounds a bit high, so I'll go w/50% - as there is no 60/65% option.

[TheLordProtector]

Originally Posted by MNP

I went 99%. Once again, recourse to the virgin soil epidemic that hit the Indians. Not all Indians everywhere were wiped out, but certain groups were. 95%, 98% kill rates happened. It's a short step from 98% to 99%. There were also multiple diseases but sometimes it was waves of the same disease which is now uncommon for plague.

So again, looking at the historical possibility the most virulent plague possible could essentially exterminate the human race. I don't think that high is likely in the current world, but it's not impossible--and don't forget the possibility it could be a man-made plague.

Remember though that the American plagues were something of a perfect storm of disease and that that high of a kill rate is highly unlikely in any possible world.

In short, reality is ASB.

[SargentHawk]

also i do believe it is a given that if a disease originates say in a 3rd world region, which it probably would just out of historical basis. It would grow and infect 1000's if not 100's of thousands of people before being properly diagnosed, and therefore any thought being put into treating itwould be delayed, as I do believe that i heard, that more of the worlds population live in 3rd world countries than not, and that includes China, as their country outside of the industrial, and commercial sectors, is literally a 3rd world country. So, in all seriousness the magnitude of a virus, flu, or whatever it may be, both depends on the origination area, and the amount of time it takes to recognise it. It would also depend on the viruses, or flus, "growing period", and how long it may lay dormant, because the longer that is, makes a drastic difference to how many people could get infected. I felt that contagion, was a pretty accurate representation of such a scenario.

[Grey Wolf]

Some believe that meteors carry alien bacteria, and that a meteor strike can unleash these as a plague of unprecedented variety, meaning that humanity has no immunity to it. However, it is not of course obvious that such bacteria particularly LIKE humans as food, or that a bacteriological plague can spread so easily from such a site. Maybe if an alien virus on a meteor landed in a major population centre, then the pathogens would find enough hosts to spread it out into the world?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

[MNP]

Originally Posted by TheLordProtector

Remember though that the American plagues were something of a perfect storm of disease and that that high of a kill rate is highly unlikely in any possible world.

In short, reality is ASB.

I didn't forget. But the OP wanted the most virulent POSSIBLE plague.

[willbell]

Originally Posted by Grey Wolf

Some believe that meteors carry alien bacteria, and that a meteor strike can unleash these as a plague of unprecedented variety, meaning that humanity has no immunity to it. However, it is not of course obvious that such bacteria particularly LIKE humans as food, or that a bacteriological plague can spread so easily from such a site. Maybe if an alien virus on a meteor landed in a major population centre, then the pathogens would find enough hosts to spread it out into the world?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

A virus is too simple, it would have no idea what to do with the membranes to our cells, bacteria at least might release a toxin that can hurt everything.

[tom]

U shaped curve...9 people (besides me) said 25% and 7 said 99%, a scattering in the intermediate levels..
Thank you for your input.